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  #12261  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 7:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
After a recent visit to TAXI I've been thinking about RTD's massive bus maintenance footprint in that area and how it seems ripe for redevelopment with all of the stuff going on across the river in RiNo.
Meh. TAXI is still a gussed-up suburban office park with plenty of room to develop and RTD is still a (barely) functioning agency that needs a place to park, service, and repair it's 1,000 plus buses. The Platte facility is still a vital facility and you'd be hard-pressed to find a similar location that is located in the center of RTD's hub-and-spoke network.

But since RTD is f**cking up so hard and in so many ways, let's just wait 20 years and we can pick the land up for pennies on the dollar during the liquidation sale.
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  #12262  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 8:42 PM
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Highlights and Lowlights

Fares Don’t Cover The Price Of Buses and Trains. That Leaves RTD A Big Budget Dilemma
September 25, 2019 By Nathaniel Minor - CPR News

This is very nicely done piece (including links) about RTD performance and overall condition.

Quote:
“It's hard. It's heart wrenching. And it is scary as hell,” said board member Angie Rivera-Malpiede. But, she said, “I think that my constituency is very interested in the fiscal sustainability and health of this agency. We need it to survive and we need it to be strong.”
Quote:
“I think all transit agencies on the planet are, pretty much, subsidized,” said board member Claudia Folska at a Sept. 17 meeting. “And I guess for us the question is, ‘How much can we afford to subsidize?’ ”
Quote:
Multiple board members took note of the high subsidies for FlexRide shuttles, which run from $9.87 per ride in Golden to $38.17 in Louisville.

“I just find it, for me, very disturbing,” said board member Natalie Menten. “We might as well just give these people a $5 or $8 Uber ticket.”
Quote:
“We're to a point that we will have to reduce service or not maintain our assets,” McKillop said, referring to the physical condition of RTD’s buses, trains and other equipment. “But it's kind of a circular argument, because if you don't maintain your assets then you can't operate service.”
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  #12263  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 9:06 PM
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I think RTD should just be blunt with voters and say "Hey.... you want to finish that train to Boulder? You want more rail? Welp, vote in a tax increase then to fund it.".....

I think RTD should be focusing on expanding regional bus services that mimick what the FF does. Are there ridership numbers for the Flatiron Flyer? I would be curious to see what those numbers are, and if they have actually increased in recent years. If they have, RTD should be using that as justification for getting away from spending so much money on rail lines that won't get justified ridership. I totally support some existing rail lines (A line, SE lines) as they serve key connecting points. I also continue to believe that the folks who are the most upset about the incomplete B line are actually a vocal minority.

Giving up on the B line, while beefing up regional bus routes would go a long ways towards helping RTD out......
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  #12264  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 10:18 PM
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Fare Box Recovery

My system versus the National Transit Data Base - Summaries & Trends 2017.

My sense has been that transit agencies report locally their Fare Box Recovery based on their annual operating expenses. But NTD uses Fare Box revenue compared to total costs including depreciation which is more of balance sheet approach as apposed to Cash Flow analysis.

CPR reports:
Quote:
Factoring in depreciation, RTD calculates that fares covered just under 25 percent of what it cost the agency to provide services in 2018. According to a Federal Transit Administration analysis of 2017 data, the national average is 35 percent.
Due to large investments in light/commuter rail RTD would benefit from higher depreciation in this approach.

CPR also reports actual revenue of $143 million against $777 million in operating expenses. That's a recovery rate of 18.5%. I assume this may include misc revenue in addition to fares but these would be negligible. When it comes to setting next year's budget it's good to know what your cash flow is.

Looking around... (quoted for 2016)
  • DART (Dallas) has a low 14% recovery rate - but they don't care
  • Las Vegas Monorail comes in at 56%
  • I've also read that RTC, Las Vegas transit system exceeds 50% recovery
  • Metro Transit - Twin Cites recovery rate is 25%
  • TRIMET in Portland has a 30% recovery rate
  • King County - Seattle has a 35% recovery rate
  • Sound Transit - Seattle light rail has a 42% recovery rate
  • San Diego MTS has a 39% recovery rate
  • Edmonton Transit System's recovery rate is 39%
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  #12265  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 10:37 PM
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Here's what 15th will look like:

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  #12266  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 11:29 PM
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Looks like the N line has been delayed until mid 2020, and the culprit is again positive train control and crossing gates: https://www.denverpost.com/2019/09/2...-2020-opening/

Has RTD delivered anything on time? I'm really worried that their lack of credibility at this point will lead to voters never giving them another cent.
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  #12267  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 11:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LooksLikeForever View Post
Looks like the N line has been delayed until mid 2020, and the culprit is again positive train control and crossing gates: https://www.denverpost.com/2019/09/2...-2020-opening/

Has RTD delivered anything on time? I'm really worried that their lack of credibility at this point will lead to voters never giving them another cent.
Damn. I was able to see them testing trains while I was out that way yesterday.
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  #12268  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 11:50 PM
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Hoo Boy

Just numbers: $143 million in revenue; $777 million in operating expenses
That means a subsidy of $634 million. Gosh, that's a lot of clams.

Per CPR:
Quote:
That question will likely be at the heart of the agency’s two-year process, called “Reimagine RTD,” to rethink its priorities. At the same time, RTD faces falling ridership and an impending budget crisis.
RTD now has some robust statistical analysis they use.
Quote:
NOTE: In 2017 the new fare revenue allocation model was implemented. Also all bus and rail ridership boardings are now obtained from our automatic passenger counters (APCs). Thus, relative to years earlier, bus boardings are about 8% higher in general than before.

RTD has established guidelines in its Transit Service Policies & Standards that the least productive 10% of routes based on either subsidy per boarding or boardings per hour need to be evaluated for marketing, revision or elimination, or if both measures fall below 25% for a route.
The RTD analysis has an interesting chart of subsidies per boardings. One thing I extrapolated was that average subsidy for bus boardings is $5.50 while for rail it's $8.00 per boarding. That's not necessarily a surprise that light/commuter rail is higher. It also goes to ridership to date that needs to improve.

Back to CPR:
Quote:
RTD staff use the data to determine which type of service is most cost-effective for each area, and how often that service should operate. “We connect all these services into a network,” Jeff Becker, a service development manager with RTD, told the board. “And we match the level of service to the market requirements to have financial sustainability.”

Becker said the biggest predictor of ridership in a given area is population and employment density. “That is the main driver for transit ridership, period,” he said.
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  #12269  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 11:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LooksLikeForever View Post
Looks like the N line has been delayed until mid 2020, and the culprit is again positive train control and crossing gates: https://www.denverpost.com/2019/09/2...-2020-opening/

Has RTD delivered anything on time? I'm really worried that their lack of credibility at this point will lead to voters never giving them another cent.
AFAIK, the W Line, the A and B Lines and the R Line were all timely finished. The G Line was much delayed due to the crossing gates problems that arose on the A Line. The N Line had its own issues like cemeteries and other nonsense but who cares?
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  #12270  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 12:41 AM
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For analysis purposes RTD breaks bus routes into four categories: 1) CBD Local 2) Urban Local 3) Suburban Local 4) Regional

Interestingly, Regional routes have good numbers for boardings,
comparable to CBD Local and Urban Local. They understandably cost a bit more since they're the longest routes.

This goes to twister244's reference to the Flatiron Flyer and presumably includes most Express routes. These routes have strong ridership.

The lowest ridership and therefor highest subsidies
go to Suburban Local routes. Presumably this is the obvious place for cuts. But this gets tricky as the need to please and 'coverage' comes into play.

Breaking the Mold
I believe there's a Highlands Ranch specific route that isn't performing so well. Why not take half the calculated cost and offer that amount as a block grant back to Highlands Ranch to use towards their own TNC subsidized services? This would save RTD money while keeping the local taxpayers happy.

BTW, there are a number of 'local/urban' routes that are not performing up to RTD's standards so it's not just suburban routes that suck.
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  #12271  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 2:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post
AFAIK, the W Line, the A and B Lines and the R Line were all timely finished. The G Line was much delayed due to the crossing gates problems that arose on the A Line. The N Line had its own issues like cemeteries and other nonsense but who cares?
The W and R lines may have been completed on time, I can't remember. However, that would stand to reason as those are both light rail systems which RTD seems to be most comfortable with. The real issues arise from the heavy rail/P3 partnership arrangements for the A, B, G and N lines. Even though the A and B lines may have opened 'on time,' I believe they were operating under conditional waivers from the federal government for years. Had the federal government not issued those waivers, my guess is that the A and B lines would have been delayed as long as the G and N.

But I digress. We all know RTD has issues, hopefully if and when the N line is ever extended to Boulder (maybe in the next century?) they will have these issues ironed out...
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  #12272  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 9:21 PM
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Originally Posted by LooksLikeForever View Post
But I digress. We all know RTD has issues, hopefully if and when the N line is ever extended to Boulder (maybe in the next century?) they will have these issues ironed out...
You mean the B Line? That is one that would be extended to Boulder/Longmont.

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  #12273  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 9:31 PM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
You mean the B Line? That is one that would be extended to Boulder/Longmont.
You are absolutely correct, my mistake. I do believe the N line has a potential future expansion as well, but just further into Thornton/Northglenn I believe.
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  #12274  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 9:09 AM
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In my opinion, the only thing RTD did wrong with the commuter rail lines, was not selecting the Kiewit/Siemens lead teams proposals. The technical problems and delays are not RTD's fault, so much as they are the fault of the Parsons/Bielford Beaty design and build out. The old saying, "you get what you pay for" comes into play. The small amount of savings has quickly evaporated, over what it would have cost to go with the Kiewit design. Kiewit has the reputation of completing RTD LRT lines on time and under budget. The technology upgrades their design proposed, were leaps and bounds over the bare bones design RTD went with to "save" a little money. Remember, the Kiewit proposal would have used Siemens EMU's running on 135 volt Catenary, which would allowed these trains to cruise at 85mph. It also proposed a high tech command center and would have utilized superior connectivity infrastructure from top to bottom. In fact we're talking European standards for their HSR lines, the only limiting factor in speed was simply do to not being fully grade separated and sharing ROW in places with freight rail (thus the 85 mph speed limit). RTD missed that boat.
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  #12275  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2019, 3:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LooksLikeForever View Post
You are absolutely correct, my mistake. I do believe the N line has a potential future expansion as well, but just further into Thornton/Northglenn I believe.
Yes, eventually the N line is supposed to be extended to Hwy 7/168th Ave.
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  #12276  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2019, 7:41 PM
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More Hot Takes from CPR

How Many People Ride Your RTD Bus? How Cost-Effective Is It?
September 28, 2019 By Nathaniel Minor/CPR
Quote:
But subsidies per rider don't necessarily mean those lines are the most expensive to operate. Less popular routes that have higher subsidies also operate far less frequently. The costliest routes also tend to be very popular.
Spend an hour thinking about that and then get back to us.
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  #12277  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2019, 6:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mr1138 View Post
It's interesting to see the realignment options being studied. I like the concepts for both the additional RTD tracks (potentially allowing for express trains?) and re-use of the historic Burnham structure as a new joint 10th and Osage/Front Range Rail station.
Yeah, I only got a flyover take on this with my first pass; quite the fascinating proposal. Thanks to Michael Roberts at Westword who has a piece on this I got a nice 2nd bite.

Inside the Massive I-25 Project That's About to Take Its First Step
SEPTEMBER 30, 2019 BY MICHAEL ROBERTS
Quote:
Interstate 25 from Santa Fe Drive to 20th Street is the busiest slab of Colorado's highway system, with an estimated 250,000 vehicles using at least part of it on a daily basis — and that number is expected to hit 300,000 by 2040. In the meantime, approximately 1,000 crashes per year, or around three a day, take place along this five-mile stretch.

Credit CDOT via Westword

Quote:
Originally Posted by EngiNerd View Post
The land is big enough that rerouting CML tracks through Burnham yard could also easily accompany redevelopment, I don't think those two things are mutually exclusive. The Burnham hard is 61 acres....for perspective, the entire Union Station area from 15th to 20th, CML to Wewatta (between DUS and the train canopy) is about 60 acres....61 acres is a huge area that can accommodate all sorts of multimodal and TOD.
What an amazing opportunity if difficult to pull together.
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  #12278  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2019, 12:08 AM
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Originally Posted by TakeFive View Post

What an amazing opportunity if difficult to pull together.

I like difficult.
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  #12279  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2019, 12:54 AM
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CDOT’s m.o. is solving a known bottleneck and sudden lane reduction caused by a river/railroad right-of-way constraint that affects 250,000 people per day using that stretch of roadway. Which, I’d point out, is more than double RTD’s total rail system ridership. The m.o. is to make 250,000 people’s day slightly better.
Excellent...

And even when RTD's rail system ridership doubles it still won't be a binary issue. I-25 will Always and Forever be critical for the movement of goods and services as well as buses, vans, self-driving cars, whatever comes along. It's vital to the front range, the state as well as the urban core. Can't live without it. That said, I celebrate the importance of all modes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bunt_q View Post
Edit: This is why I’m a Biden guy. This unproductive revolutionary instant gratification fix it all overnight nonsense isn’t getting us anywhere. Can’t wait for “nothing to change” and then we’ll watch an entire generation of young voters be disappointed and go back to giving up on the system. And then we can all put away our magic wands and get back to actual hard work. (End of grumpy old man rant!)
Philosophically, not a problem but I just have trouble envisioning Biden as Presidential. So I'm now a Buttigieg guy. I figure if a needed change of scenery can elect a black guy then maybe the same need can elect a gay guy? Ofc, I'm well familiar with Obama's theme songs. Maybe a Perfect Symphony would work for Pete; he could win over all the blind, the Italian and the Irish voters.

BTW, I stated months ago that Elizabeth Warren could be the sleeper candidate; a hunch for how she seemed to be doing everything right. Tech rock ahead.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...-idUSKBN1WG42H
Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Facebook Inc Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg told employees in July that the company would “go to the mat” to defeat Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren’s expected effort to break up the world’s largest social media company if she were elected president, according to audio of two internal company meetings published by The Verge.
I have no clue why socialists are anathema to tech success and success in general? In any case...

Consider how Trump totally turned the Republican Party on its head. Could Elizabeth Warren do the same for Democrats?
Meanwhile where's the candidate or party who caters to the large silent majority that hangs out closer to the middle?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bunt_q View Post
I like difficult.
I noticed when I read the Westword piece it specifically mentioned HPTE.
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  #12280  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2019, 1:39 AM
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So I'm now a Buttigieg guy. I figure if a needed change of scenery can elect a black guy then maybe the same need can elect a gay guy?
The "first" here that I am not okay with is electing a 12 year old to be President. He's younger than me, and I am too young to be President. Therefore, no, he does not get my vote.
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