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  #481  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 10:14 PM
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German Population Grows at Fastest Pace Since 1992


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Driven by the arrival of growing numbers of foreigners, Germany's population rose by 430,000 to 81.2 million last year,
its biggest increase since 1992, the German statistics office said on Thursday.
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  #482  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2015, 11:00 PM
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The German statistical office has published the age pyramid of Germany as of January 1, 2015, so we can compare the age structures of Germany and France for one more year (France published its age pyramid as of Jan. 1, 2015 last January).

The main news from these 2015 age pyramids is France now has more inhabitants than Germany at all ages from 0 to 16. Last year (Jan. 1, 2014), France had more inhabitants than Germany at all ages only from 0 to 15.

The huge inflows of immigrants in Germany is nonetheless being felt. Last year, France had as many people as Germany for age 17 and age 18 (oddly, Germany had more people than France at age 16, i.e. people born in 1997, whereas France, like I said, had more people than Germany at all ages from 0 to 15). Well this year, these people are now 18 and 19, and these two generations are now significantly more numerous in Germany than in France (whereas they were equal last year). That clearly shows that many migrants born in 1995 and 1996 arrived in Germany in 2014.

I've made a calculation for this migration effect. I've compared the difference between France and Germany for each generation last year and this year. The calculations show a clearly pattern of migrant bulge in Germany from age 18 to age 33.

For age 18 (i.e. people born in 1996), France and Germany had the same number of people from this generation last year, but this year (Jan. 1, 2015) Germany has 20,000 more people from this generation than France (806,000 in France vs 826,000 in Germany). So for the people born in 1996 who were 17 last year and who are 18 this year, Germany has increased its lead over France by 20,000. That's pretty big (2.5% of that generation have arrived in Germany last year alone, net of departures).

Like I said, Germany increased its lead over France in a very significant way from age 18 to age 33 (after age 33, Germany increased its lead over France only slightly, and after age 55 it's actually France which increased its lead over Germany, probably due to higher life expectancy in France + departures of German retirees to southern European shores; France also increased its lead over Germany from age 3 to age 9, which tends to show that immigrants arrive in Germany without children, whereas immigrants arrive in France with young children).

The two generations where Germany increased the most its lead over France are those from 1991 and 1992. For the people from 1992, who were 21 in Jan. 2014 and 22 in Jan. 2015, Germany increased its lead over France by a whopping 40,000! For the people from 1991, who were 22 in Jan. 2014 and 23 in Jan. 2015, Germany increased its lead over France by 37,000. So apparently 22-23 y/o is the age when migrants are most likely to move to Germany. France on the other hand... well the country does its best to repulse migrants.

So it looks like next year France will have more inhabitants than Germany at all ages from 0 to 17, but it remains to be seen whether in the next years France will be able to have more people than Germany at ages 18, 19, 20, etc. With current high migration to Germany, it's quite possible that Germany can keep its lead over France for those ages until 2020 (without immigration, Germany would lose its lead over France for age 18 as soon as Jan. 2017, for age 19 as soon as Jan. 2018, etc).

It seems impossible for Germany to keep its lead over France at those ages for ever though. The coming French generations (those which are less than 15 y/o now) are more and more numerous compared to the same German generations, so it would require impossibly high levels of immigration for Germany to still be more populous at those ages (18, 19, 20s) than France.

For example, the people born in 2000, who will be 18 in Jan. 2019, are 67,500 more numerous in France than in Germany. The people born in 2001, who will be 18 in Jan. 2020, are 83,000 more numerous in France than in Germany. The people born in 2004, who will be 18 in Jan. 2023, are 101,000 more numerous in France than in Germany. The people born in 2006, who will be 18 in Jan. 2025, are 160,000 more numerous in France than in Germany.

Given that at best in 2014 Germany increased its lead over a single French generation by 40,000 (and this with record immigration in the country), it seems almost certain that France, even with super low immigration levels, will pass Germany for the people 18-25 y/o in the early 2020s.

I've detailed all these figures, because they are not some forecasts or population projections. They are real observations of each country's population, and they help understand what's going to happen. Not much can change this scissor effect for the next 20 years, unless Germany suddenly had net migration of more than 1 or 2 million per year (which would mean 2 to 4 million new arrivals per year ).
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  #483  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2015, 6:14 PM
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France still definitely needs immigrants to keep her fertility rate at a decent level.

Funny that so many over here are still worried about immigration, for immigrants to Europe are less and less interested in France, sadly.

Indeed few refugees of the latest exodus from the Middle East would aim at settling down in our country. They'd rather go to the UK where work permit is easier to get and since many of them learned English, or to Germany, the Netherlands or Sweden where industry, therefore the job market is supposed to still be vibrant enough to remain welcoming. That's obviously not the same over here, and may well be a pity to us when a certain ratio of Syrian immigrants, for example would be rather skilled. Engineers, lawyers and so on among them, they say. Lots of young guys hungry for success.
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  #484  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2015, 6:21 AM
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Regarding ages of refugee migration in Germany, all refugees together tend to be male and young, syrians are "currently" among the "oldest" although much younger than german average, africans are the youngest (that might explain why France is receiving younger refugees), and balcan refugees (most of them with little chance of staying for long term) tend to migrate with large families and childrens.

Refugees alone will not solve demographics problems in germany, not from one day to another, they will hopefully rejuvenate society for a few years or decades, and give Germany more time to stabilize its fertility to a normal level. The age cohort 18-45, which is still by far larger in Germany compared to France, is also very important for future potential fertility.

Another fact to take into consideration, while current migrants to Germany from the middle east are mostly male and adults, they will bring their childrens and wives once they get their asylum approved, we might expect younger and more female middle east migrants in the coming years considering they are at present the majority of the huge refugees waves and the ones with the highest chances of asylum approval

Image title:
More than half of refugees is younger than 25
Asylum seekers according to age and sex in 2014


Last edited by laufwerk; Oct 1, 2015 at 8:39 AM.
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  #485  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2015, 8:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Lear View Post
I think 2014 was the second year in more than 15 years that Germany´s population is growing faster than France, at least in absolute numbers
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  #486  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2015, 7:57 PM
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Originally Posted by laufwerk View Post
Another fact to take into consideration, while current migrants to Germany from the middle east are mostly male and adults, they will bring their childrens and wives once they get their asylum approved
Silly me, I was wondering why there were so many grown-up males in cohorts mistreated in Hungary, reported by the media.
Of course, most wouldn't take their women and kids for the unsafe trek...
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  #487  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2015, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by mousquet View Post
Of course, most wouldn't take their women and kids for the unsafe trek...
Yes, and other thing, the travel from middle east to europe requires a lot of money for smugglers, they usually have the money for one and once they are in Germany they get more money to bring their families
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  #488  
Old Posted Nov 26, 2015, 1:59 AM
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A map posted by vinterriket on SSC (from the UK 2011 census I suppose) which confirms what I already stated in this thread: the pull of London in England is extremely limited, as large enough cities and centers of employment block the extent of its commuter belt very quickly after the borders of Greater London. The map matches my own calculations from the UK 2011 census: the London metro area spreads over a rather limited land area.

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  #489  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2015, 5:32 PM
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There are of cause no official data, but estimations suggest the fertility rate of native french people in France is only about 1.7 children per woman.
Thats still higher then Germanys (about 1.4). But lower then France average 2.1 children.
People from arab and other muslim countrys seem to get the most children in France.
I think Germany also wants to bring in many muslim immigrants as refugees, so that our population and our fertility rate will rise.
I dont think France can get a higher population then Germany.
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  #490  
Old Posted Dec 12, 2015, 7:26 PM
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^^Lol. Nice attempt at trolling by quoting a Far-Right website which claims things without any evidence.

In the real world, the French statistical office has shown time and again that the fertility rate of the native French women is only 0.1 less than the national average (which includes immigrants). So given that the national average is currently 2.0, that means the fertility rate of the native French women is 1.9.
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  #491  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2015, 4:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
There are of cause no official data, but estimations suggest the fertility rate of native french people in France is only about 1.7 children per woman.
Thats still higher then Germanys (about 1.4). But lower then France average 2.1 children.
People from arab and other muslim countrys seem to get the most children in France.
I think Germany also wants to bring in many muslim immigrants as refugees, so that our population and our fertility rate will rise.
I dont think France can get a higher population then Germany.
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I don´t think immigration is the only factor, culture also plays a role, in France there´s widespread acceptation of daycare centers for childrens while in Germany we have just starting to overcome some cultural obstacles for that, but now that 1st postwar generation is old, and the 2nd and 3d is in charge of fertility we might have a better chance.

If the trend of the last 20 years continues, France would have more population in a few decades, but trends can´t last forever, I think if it happens it would be much later than many projections say


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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
^^Lol. Nice attempt at trolling by quoting a Far-Right website which claims things without any evidence.

In the real world, the French statistical office has shown time and again that the fertility rate of the native French women is only 0.1 less than the national average (which includes immigrants). So given that the national average is currently 2.0, that means the fertility rate of the native French women is 1.9.
Just curios of how those official staticstics are made, are immigrants just foreigners in France or immigrants include muslims and african people with french citizenship coming from their overseas territories or former colonies?, do immigrants include french born with foreign background?
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  #492  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2015, 4:35 PM
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Originally Posted by laufwerk View Post
Just curios of how those official staticstics are made, are immigrants just foreigners in France or immigrants include muslims and african people with french citizenship coming from their overseas territories or former colonies?, do immigrants include french born with foreign background?
Yet again, anyone born and raised on any French territory including the overseas is constitutionally a random French citizen. So statistics computed locally make no difference between them, whatever their ethnicity, religion or background.

In other words, by "native French," we may mention any dark-skinned Catholic, any Muslim, any white person with any kind of European background or whatever. The national constitution actually implements that principle, up to demographic statistics.
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  #493  
Old Posted Dec 13, 2015, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by mousquet View Post
Yet again, anyone born and raised on any French territory including the overseas is constitutionally a random French citizen. So statistics computed locally make no difference between them, whatever their ethnicity, religion or background.

In other words, by "native French," we may mention any dark-skinned Catholic, any Muslim, any white person with any kind of European background or whatever. The national constitution actually implements that principle, up to demographic statistics.
that answers my question, I don´t have doubt they´re all native french but that doesn´t mean they have the same culture, specially in the first generations of people coming to europe (or metropolitan France in that case)
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  #494  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2015, 7:24 PM
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^ Bah, just don't worry too much about that. By definition, culture is soft, workable and scalable. Could you honestly claim that those current things accepted as the common European culture are anything absolutely perfect? Nonsense. Myself, I sometimes get angry at them.

New comers should be able to help us if we help them to correct their lacks. There are possible fair exchanges to gradually shape something brand new, more sophisticated, open and flexible, and just better. And it's not just some naive speech. If you carefully look around with no preconceived bias, it's simply real.

Les gens apportent leurs petites pierres à l'ouvrage, they could say, I guess.
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  #495  
Old Posted Dec 16, 2015, 6:06 AM
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Originally Posted by mousquet View Post
^ Bah, just don't worry too much about that. By definition, culture is soft, workable and scalable. Could you honestly claim that those current things accepted as the common European culture are anything absolutely perfect? Nonsense. Myself, I sometimes get angry at them.

New comers should be able to help us if we help them to correct their lacks. There are possible fair exchanges to gradually shape something brand new, more sophisticated, open and flexible, and just better. And it's not just some naive speech. If you carefully look around with no preconceived bias, it's simply real.

Les gens apportent leurs petites pierres à l'ouvrage, they could say, I guess.
That´s great, we teach them maths, reading and freedom, and they teach us how to make babies lool
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  #496  
Old Posted Dec 16, 2015, 10:04 PM
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Children of immigrants in France have the same fertility rate as non-children of immigrants, so your point is moot. This idea that France's high fertility rate is due to immigrants is a far-right fantasy coupled with a bit of German Schadenfreude ("if the French succeed better than us, it can only be because of immigrants"... what a convenient way to brush the issue aside ).
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  #497  
Old Posted Dec 19, 2015, 4:59 PM
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Statistics are sometimes tricky or incomplete, i´m far away from far right mentality, I´m just curious about society and it would be interesting to have statistics about french citizens with foreign background or in the first generations after arriving in continental Europe. In the case of Germany, a country without any overseas territories or any relevant ex colony, almost all immigrants are, at least from the language, culturally different and statistics indicate a remarkable difference in fertility, I think for 2014 it was 1,8 child/woman against 1,4, in both cases a bit better than last year but the difference is still substantial
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  #498  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2016, 3:12 AM
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
The Economist published a map showing population growth in Germany between 2006 and 2011. I've added France for comparison.

Color scheme is rigorously the same for both countries. Data from 2006 and 2011 French censuses.



Detailed view of the Franco-German border area at the commune level:

Since this map was prior to the refugee crisis why does Bavaria have a more stable population than the rest of Germany? Is it it immigration or natural growth?
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  #499  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2016, 2:52 PM
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Originally Posted by RST500 View Post
Since this map was prior to the refugee crisis why does Bavaria have a more stable population than the rest of Germany? Is it it immigration or natural growth?
It's both. Bavaria and The Rhein-Neckar region of Baden Wuerttemberg are the two economic superstar regions of Germany. Internal migration heads to these two areas.
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  #500  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2016, 8:46 PM
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It's both. Bavaria and The Rhein-Neckar region of Baden Wuerttemberg are the two economic superstar regions of Germany. Internal migration heads to these two areas.
Does Catholicism play a role? The areas with lowest growth rates in the North are Protestant.
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