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  #461  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 5:34 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by Miu View Post
TIt should be noted that fertility rates of non-immigrant Canadians or white Americans, for instance, aren't all that much higher than those of Germans (France seems to be an exception in this regard)
Not true. The fertility rate of White Americans is much higher than that of Germans.

And fertility rates among White Americans are stable; fertility rates among Germans have been dropping non-stop for decades. The reason that fertility rates in the U.S. have dropped in recent years is due entirely to decreases in Hispanic and Black fertility rates (Black rates are now the same as White rates), while Asian and White fertility rates have remained constant.

White fertility rate in the U.S. is around 1.8; overall fertility rate in Germany is around 1.4. That's a major difference in developed world terms. And White births are now less than 50% of all U.S. births.

And the problem in Germany isn't the fertility rate per se; it's the age distribution. The German population is so skewed older that there aren't enough people in the child-bearing cohort. That's the main issue. Gernany actually has the lowest birth rate in the world, even though many countries have lower fertility rate.

http://www.dw.com/en/germany-has-low...ows/a-18485179
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  #462  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 7:00 PM
JGreat JGreat is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Those aren't remotely equivalent neighborhoods. Neukölln and Kreuzberg are gentrified inner-city neighborhoods filled with young German professionals. Les Izards and St. Denis are deprived suburban neighborhood filled with immigrants.

If you compare apples to apples (so Kreuzberg to anywhere in East Paris, or Neuperlach (Munich) to St. Denis), you will see they are quite similar. In both Kreuzberg and anywhere in Paris east of the center, you will see former immigrant areas filled with young professionals. Similarly, in Neuperlach and St. Denis you will see poor 90% immigrant areas filled with non-Europeans.
Images from GV are from about 2008 for Germany, Neuperlach seems like a quiet german neighbourhood with the exception of maybe a few suspicious "plattenbau" buildings, streets and buildings are clean and people there seem quiet and what you would expect in "old europe", St Denis images are from 2013, I don´t think you could compare those places . Almost everywhere in St Denis there are women wearing turbans and african descendents, I even saw a beggar laying on a sidewalk, there are garbage bags piled up.
This could have changed a little recently since Germany was taking massive immigration the last few years while France not, and I´m sure Germany has worse looking neighbourhoods, likewise for France.
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  #463  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 7:09 PM
JGreat JGreat is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Not true. The fertility rate of White Americans is much higher than that of Germans.

And fertility rates among White Americans are stable; fertility rates among Germans have been dropping non-stop for decades. The reason that fertility rates in the U.S. have dropped in recent years is due entirely to decreases in Hispanic and Black fertility rates (Black rates are now the same as White rates), while Asian and White fertility rates have remained constant.

White fertility rate in the U.S. is around 1.8; overall fertility rate in Germany is around 1.4. That's a major difference in developed world terms. And White births are now less than 50% of all U.S. births.

And the problem in Germany isn't the fertility rate per se; it's the age distribution. The German population is so skewed older that there aren't enough people in the child-bearing cohort. That's the main issue. Gernany actually has the lowest birth rate in the world, even though many countries have lower fertility rate.

http://www.dw.com/en/germany-has-low...ows/a-18485179
We´ll see, if labor force doesn´t grow or shrinks, what is not the case right now, there will be less money for the state, and germans hate to lose money, it could lead to more radical measures to attract even more immigrants and/or help younger people to build a family
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  #464  
Old Posted Jul 11, 2015, 9:29 PM
Miu Miu is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Not true. The fertility rate of White Americans is much higher than that of Germans.

And fertility rates among White Americans are stable; fertility rates among Germans have been dropping non-stop for decades. The reason that fertility rates in the U.S. have dropped in recent years is due entirely to decreases in Hispanic and Black fertility rates (Black rates are now the same as White rates), while Asian and White fertility rates have remained constant.

White fertility rate in the U.S. is around 1.8; overall fertility rate in Germany is around 1.4. That's a major difference in developed world terms. And White births are now less than 50% of all U.S. births.

And the problem in Germany isn't the fertility rate per se; it's the age distribution. The German population is so skewed older that there aren't enough people in the child-bearing cohort. That's the main issue. Gernany actually has the lowest birth rate in the world, even though many countries have lower fertility rate.

http://www.dw.com/en/germany-has-low...ows/a-18485179
You are right, I thought the TFR of White Americans was similar to Canadians (the fertility rate of native-born Canadians is 1.5). That being said, the fertility rate of White Americans has been below replacement levels for decades, and White deaths exceeded births in 2013 and 2014.

The rest of your post seems to echo what I wrote.
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  #465  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2015, 9:33 PM
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wow thats a interesting map. I cant believe whats happening to germany, you can really see the old east and west border. Im supprised myself about poland most of the map shows increases but cities showing decreases most rural young people looking for work in other countries.
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  #466  
Old Posted Aug 20, 2015, 8:36 AM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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Refugee numbers in Germany to reach 800,000 in 2015

The German government increased their estimates of how many asylum-seekers will be applying in Germany by the end of this year to up to 800,000, Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière said on Wednesday.

source: http://www.thelocal.de


http://www.thelocal.de/20150820/numb...o-reach-750000

If this trends continues, as the german Interior Minister suggested, it would completely reshape german population estimates for the next decades, only the number of refugees for 2015 would compensate for about 4 years of german natural negative population growth
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  #467  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2015, 5:21 PM
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Originally Posted by laufwerk View Post
If this trends continues, as the german Interior Minister suggested, it would completely reshape german population estimates for the next decades, only the number of refugees for 2015 would compensate for about 4 years of german natural negative population growth
But the vast majority will be sent back from Germany. There's no way in hell Germans are going to accept 800,000 refugees. Half are from Eastern Europe anyways, and all of them will be sent back with expedited processing.

And border controls are probably imminent. Germany (and other Schengen countries) do have the right to border controls under in emergency circumstances.
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  #468  
Old Posted Aug 21, 2015, 11:53 PM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
But the vast majority will be sent back from Germany. There's no way in hell Germans are going to accept 800,000 refugees. Half are from Eastern Europe anyways, and all of them will be sent back with expedited processing.

And border controls are probably imminent. Germany (and other Schengen countries) do have the right to border controls under in emergency circumstances.
Even as the acceptance rate will be about 1/3 to about 1/2 of total, it doesn´t mean all the rest will be "sent back", forced deportation were about 10000 last year with about 200000 new asylum applications, but even if it happened, it would be a record huge amount remaining. Balkan immigrants will be indeed mostly rejected, but given the massive numbers, the government is working on new legislations to allow them legal immigration to look for work in Germany, at least that´s what Merkel said a few weeks ago.

Border controls are, otherwise, not into serios consideration so far, but of course if this grows out of control, and countries like Italy, France and other EU eastern countries keep refusing their duty to help refugees, nothing´s guaranteed, but seriously, I can´t imagine how Germany could turn itself into a big walled castle, control all their borders to 9 countries and let hundreds of thousands camping around its territory

Last edited by laufwerk; Aug 22, 2015 at 12:37 AM.
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  #469  
Old Posted Sep 2, 2015, 8:06 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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The French statistical office has published the full and final 2014 birth figures for France. So we now have final figures for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK.

Births in 2014:
- France: 818,565 (-0.0%)
- UK: 776,352 (-0.3%)
- Germany: 714,966 (+4.8%)
- Italy: 502.596 (-2.3%)
- Spain: 426,303 (+0.1%)

Here is the evolution for each country since 2012. Note that since 2014 INSEE is including Mayotte in the French birth figures, so I'm giving the 2014 figure for France both with and without Mayotte to allow comparisons with previous years (the 2012 and 2013 figures are without Mayotte).

FRANCE:
2012: 821,047 (down from a peak of 832,799 in 2010)
2013: 811,510 (-1.2%)
2014 (without Mayotte): 811,259 (-0.0%)
2014 (with Mayotte): 818,565

UK:
2012: 812,970 (peak of births since 1972)
2013: 778,803 (-4.2%)
2014: 776,352 (-0.3%)

GERMANY:
2012: 673,544 (up from a nadir of 662,685 in 2011, but down from 719,250 in 2002, 812,173 in 1997, and 905,675 in 1990)
2013: 682,069 (+1.3%)
2014: 714,966 (+4.8%)

ITALY:
2012: 534,186 (down from a peak of 576,659 in 2008)
2013: 514,308 (-3.7%)
2014: 502,596 (-2.3%)

SPAIN:
2012: 454,648 (down from a peak of 519,779 in 2008)
2013: 425,715 (-6.4%)
2014: 426,303 (+0.1%)

France and the UK have fully published their birth figures by country of birth of the mother. We're still waiting for Italy and Spain. Germany, as usual, refuses to publish any data regarding the country of birth of the mothers. I suspect the percentage of births due to mothers born outside of Germany must be very high.

Percentage of births in 2014 due to mothers born outside of the country:
- UK: 25.8% (i.e. 25.8% of all births in the UK in 2014 were due to mothers born outside of the UK, the Isle of Man, and the Channel Islands)
- Spain: 22.4% (in 2013)
- Italy: 21.9% (in 2013)
- France: 21.2% (note that Mayotte, where 2/3 of births are due to mothers born in the Comoros, skews the % for the entire France; without Mayotte, it would be 20.8% for France)
- Germany: N/A

Evolution since 2012:

UK:
2012: 24.7%
2013: 25.3%
2014: 25.8% (highest figure ever)

SPAIN:
2012: 22.7% (down from a peak of 23.6% in 2010)
2013: 22.4%
2014: N/A

FRANCE:
2012: 19.2%
2013: 20.1%
2014 (without Mayotte): 20.8% (highest figure ever)
2014 (with Mayotte): 21.2%

No data for Germany, and no data prior to 2013 for Italy.

A comparison of births due to native mothers and foreign-born mothers in France and the UK.

Number of births due to native mothers:
2012: France 663,598 (i.e. 663,598 births were due to France-born mothers) / UK 612,272 (i.e. 612,272 births were due to UK-born mothers)
2013: France 648,675 / UK 581,999
2011: France 644,711 (with Mayotte), 642,297 (without Mayotte) / UK 576,433

Number of births due to foreign-born mothers:
2012: France 157,449 / UK 200,698
2013: France 162,835 / UK 196,804
2014: France 173,854 (with Mayotte), 168,962 (without Mayotte) / UK 199,919

There are several interesting things to observe here. Even at its peak of births in 2012, the UK still had a significantly lower number of births due to native mothers than France. I've checked for Metropolitan France proper, and although the UK briefly managed to have more births than Metropolitan France proper in 2010, 2011, and 2012, it had less births due to native mothers than Metropolitan France during those three years (for example in 2012 there were 612,272 births due to UK-born women in the UK, whereas there were 638,518 births due to France-born women in Metropolitan France).

Since 2012, we can notice that the number of births due to foreign-born women has remained stable in the UK, so the decline in births is entirely due to a decline in births of UK-born women, going from 612,272 to 576,433 (a decline of 6%) in the space of just 2 years. In France, the number of births due to native women has declined, but less than in the UK, going from 663,598 to 644,711 (a decline of 3%) in the space of 2 years, and for different reasons than in the UK: in the UK the decline is due to a decreasing TFR, whereas in France the TFR of the native women has remained stable and the decline in births is due to shrinking cohorts of native women of child-bearing age (as the numerous native women from the French baby boom, 1946-1974, are now ending their reproductive lives).

France is the only European country, bar Russia, where the native women still give births to more than 600,000 babies per year. I've checked the data for Metropolitan France proper, and even in Metropolitan France the native women still give births to more than 600,000 babies per year (that was 617,739 in 2014). Since the beginning of records in 1977, the France-born women of Metropolitan France have given births to less than 600,000 babies only in 1993 and 1994.

These are the latest figures available for the births due to native women:
- France: 644,711 (in 2014)
- Metropolitan France: 617,739 (in 2014)
- UK: 576,433 (in 2014)
- Italy: 401,913 (in 2013)
- Spain: 329,251 (in 2013)
- Germany: N/A (but 562,263 births due to mothers with German citizenship in 2013)
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  #470  
Old Posted Sep 5, 2015, 3:52 AM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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Germany sees biggest baby batch in a decade

The statistics office said that nearly 715,000 newborns arrived in Germany in 2014, an increase of 4.8 percent on the previous year and the largest number of births since 2002.

The number of new marriages in Germany also increased in 2014 to 386,000 - an increase of 3.3 percent on 2013.

http://www.thelocal.de/20150821/germ...rths-in-decade



it´s worth noting it´s the biggest number in more than a decade and the biggest increase since 1986
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  #471  
Old Posted Sep 5, 2015, 11:51 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by laufwerk View Post

it´s worth noting it´s the biggest number in more than a decade and the biggest increase since 1986
Probably because Germany had its greatest immigration numbers ever last year.

Given that Merkel's "solution" to Germany's demographic issues is "welcome any living human provided they make it into the country", Germany basically has the choice of maintaining population while transforming into some other type of country, or losing population while maintaining borders and nationhood. I prefer the later, but I'm not voting. If you lose your country, then issues of demography and economy are irrelevant.

I hope Germany's next leader actually implements reforms to encourage Germans to have more babies, as has been done with some success in practically every other wealthy Western European nation. Otherwise Germany is screwed.
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  #472  
Old Posted Sep 6, 2015, 12:53 AM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Germany has actually implemented reforms to encourage Germans (in fact Germans and immigrants, since these policies cannot target specifically German people, as that would be discriminatory and contrary to European and international law) to have babies. In fact Germany spends more on child/family policy than France now! Problem is, it's not working, or it's working only very marginally. The reason for that is cultural: after 40 years of low fertility, many German women simply do not desire 2 children anymore. No amount of money, benefit, etc, can change that.

At most, in the best of world, if German women could have their desired number of children, they would have 1.96 (French women would have 2.58). Source: Eurobarometer 2011. So if the German government got absolutely everything right, magically removed all barriers to procreation, it could bring Germany's fertility rate to 1.96 (and France could bring her to 2.58). In the real world, it's almost impossible to reach these figures, for all sorts of reasons.

As for Merkel's "solution", it is simply not sustainable. There are currently 4 million Syrian refugees in the Middle East. If they suddenly decided to take advantage of Merkel's "free entry" offer, that would collapse Germany's welfare state (and create a humanitarian disaster in Germany, as I can't see which logistic could feed and house 4 million people arriving all at once). Not to mention that from what I understand, Merkel extended her offer to people from Iraq and Afghanistan, so that's million more people who could now cross the Balkan and arrive in Germany if they are ready to contemplate the long journey.

How could a normally mature and cautious leader make such a foolish statement is beyond me.
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  #473  
Old Posted Sep 6, 2015, 5:59 PM
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
The reason for that is cultural: after 40 years of low fertility, many German women simply do not desire 2 children anymore. No amount of money, benefit, etc, can change that.
Culture can be changed. France and Sweden had a low birth rates in the past, and their numbers have improved significantly, especially among the native-born.

Just because Germany has failed in the past in increasing the birth rate does not mean it should stop trying. If it just gives up there will be no more Germany. Already in cities like Stuttgart 75% of births are to foreign-born, yet foreign born residents are only maybe 25% of the city. Simply put, German women need to have more babies. In France and Sweden and the UK there are tons of immigrants yet native-born still have babies.
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As for Merkel's "solution", it is simply not sustainable. There are currently 4 million Syrian refugees in the Middle East. If they suddenly decided to take advantage of Merkel's "free entry" offer, that would collapse Germany's welfare state (and create a humanitarian disaster in Germany, as I can't see which logistic could feed and house 4 million people arriving all at once). Not to mention that from what I understand, Merkel extended her offer to people from Iraq and Afghanistan, so that's million more people who could now cross the Balkan and arrive in Germany if they are ready to contemplate the long journey.

How could a normally mature and cautious leader make such a foolish statement is beyond me.
I agree with all this. I have no idea what she is thinking. It is lingering guilt from Germany's past? Merkel's upbringing as daughter of a liberal Lutheran pastor? Trying to make Germany look "nice" after the Greece controversy? She will destroy Germany's culture and economy if her words are the honest truth re. Germany's policy towards refugees.

And Germany's social welfare system cannot handle the added load. Germany's economy, while strong, is overrated and hugely China- and export-oriented. For some reason there has been this myth over the last 10 years of Germany's indestructible, non-stop booming economy, when growth rates (esp. income growth rates) in Germany have generally trailed those of other wealthy western countries like the U.S., Canada, Australia, Switzerland and the U.K.

Yeah, Germany looks fantastic compared to Italy, but its economy is not unusually strong compared to other rich countries. And China's problems will hurt Germany's export numbers. Germany is the best at manufacturing but does not innovate that much and does not have the greatest universities; you won't see a Google originating from Germany anytime soon, but you will always get the best machine tools.
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  #474  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2015, 6:26 AM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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I really don´t know if you guys speak out of ignorance, provocation, racism or ill-intent, I just wanted to share to all the forum good news about the situation in germany and you

suddenly come up with this strange criticism...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Probably because Germany had its greatest immigration numbers ever last year.

Given that Merkel's "solution" to Germany's demographic issues is "welcome any living human provided they make it into the country", Germany basically has the choice of maintaining

population while transforming into some other type of country, or losing population while maintaining borders and nationhood. I prefer the later, but I'm not voting. If you lose your

country, then issues of demography and economy are irrelevant.

I hope Germany's next leader actually implements reforms to encourage Germans to have more babies, as has been done with some success in practically every other wealthy Western European

nation. Otherwise Germany is screwed.

First, I don´t think the latest fertility numbers are only related to immigration, Germany had similar or higher immigration in the early 90´s than 2013-14 and fertility even went down, I think it is also a consecuence of long term politics being implemented since about 10 years, and a cultural change taking place.

Apart from demographic/economic problems I´m glad germany has (or I hope it does) an open enough society to welcome people from other countries and cultures and above all, being able to integrate them in the german society, that was not always been the case in the past and I think, with all the problems it generates, there´s much more experience and preparation today
then by the time of the "Gastarbeiter".


For Merkel or any politician, refugees are not a "solution", to say that is really insane, Germany receiving refugees might be a solution for countries in eastern europe and the UK which don´t want them or France and Italy which are not wanted by them, but every german, me included, knows that from a purly economic and prosperity perspective, Germany would be better off
without so many refugees, they generate a huge cost for everybody and represent a challenge for social integrity, but there are needed people abandoned in other countries, little solidarity in the EU and a german constitution to respect, that´s why Merkel is letting them in. Politicians can only try to keep this cost as low as possible by trying to let them get
jobs and integrate as soon as possible, and that doesn´t have to screw the country, would you say the city of New York is screwed because it has/had so much immigration??




Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
Germany has actually implemented reforms to encourage Germans (in fact Germans and immigrants, since these policies cannot target specifically German people,

as that would be discriminatory and contrary to European and international law) to have babies. In fact Germany spends more on child/family policy than France now! Problem is, it's not

working, or it's working only very marginally. The reason for that is cultural: after 40 years of low fertility, many German women simply do not desire 2 children anymore. No amount of

money, benefit, etc, can change that.

At most, in the best of world, if German women could have their desired number of children, they would have 1.96 (French women would have 2.58). Source: Eurobarometer 2011. So if the

German government got absolutely everything right, magically removed all barriers to procreation, it could bring Germany's fertility rate to 1.96 (and France could bring her to 2.58). In

the real world, it's almost impossible to reach these figures, for all sorts of reasons.

As for Merkel's "solution", it is simply not sustainable. There are currently 4 million Syrian refugees in the Middle East. If they suddenly decided to take advantage of Merkel's "free

entry" offer, that would collapse Germany's welfare state (and create a humanitarian disaster in Germany, as I can't see which logistic could feed and house 4 million people arriving all

at once). Not to mention that from what I understand, Merkel extended her offer to people from Iraq and Afghanistan, so that's million more people who could now cross the Balkan and

arrive in Germany if they are ready to contemplate the long journey.

How could a normally mature and cautious leader make such a foolish statement is beyond me.

Allow me to question, that Germany is currently spending more for child/family than France, and if it is, it´s only since about a few years while France pronatalistic spendings are running since the 70´s. In Germany, for historic reasons, this cause has been totally ignored for a long time until the middle 2000´s, but even so, having a family is still not the great business in Germany and France has a much wider social network for families and workers, if they will be able to keep all that structure regarding their economic problems remains to be seen.

I partially agree it´s also a cultural problem but it´s about cycles, while France has peaked its potential for an industrialised country, other countries like Spain or Germany can
only improve, specially if there´s wide awareness in society of how important is to have families like the one I´m perceiving lately in Germany.

Again, I don´t know what make you guys think Merkel sees refugees from Syria or Afghanistan as a "solution" for german problems, is it for France a "solution" to keep oversees "territories", many of them little related to french culture and allow them to be french citizens?? Do citizens of Mayote who want to be french (and use the Euro as currency), should be rejected as french because they are not sustainable from an economic perspective?? after all, France host one of the largest, if not the largest muslim community in Europe and I hope they can integrate them well, as I hope this for german muslims. You could have saved your strange calculations, Merkel only tried to give a solution for the current disastrous condition of refugees already coming to Europe, I hope other leaders like Hollande or Cameron at least show some solidarity and give it a try too
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  #475  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2015, 2:07 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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The Wall Street Journal has an article about the growing criticism (domestic criticism in particular) of Merkel's decision to allow all Syrian immigrants in the country.
Quote:
Germany Feels Backlash for Welcoming Migrants

Wall Street Journal
September 6, 2015

Domestic, international criticism follows open-arms policy

Praise for Germany’s handling of the thousands of refugees pouring into the country is giving way to domestic and international criticism of Berlin’s open-arms policy.

The criticism, though still muted, could spell trouble for German Chancellor Angela Merkel once the outpouring of sympathy that has greeted the migrants since late last week subsides and Berlin resumes its push to distribute them more broadly across Europe.

The chancellor’s decision on Friday night to let thousands of migrants traveling through Hungary into the country “sends a completely wrong signal in Europe,” Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann told public television Saturday. “This must be corrected.”

Leaders of the Christian Social Union, Bavaria’s ruling party and an ally of Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats, unanimously criticized the decision as wrongheaded during a telephone conference on Saturday, Andreas Scheuer, the party’s secretary-general said.

[...]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-...nts-1441553068
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  #476  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2015, 2:35 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Culture can be changed. France and Sweden had a low birth rates in the past, and their numbers have improved significantly, especially among the native-born.
Culture takes a very long time to change. In the case of France, it's only a cataclysmic event like WW2 that managed to finally change the birth culture of France.

Demographics is not like economics. It's not just a matter of making one or two policy changes, and then tadam, 3 years later you have a healthy growth rate back. No. Demographics is hellishly slow to change. It took the major upheaval and moral disaster of the biggest world war the world has ever known to change France's demographic situation long-term. I can't believe that the long-term demographic situation of Germany can be changed so easily.
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I agree with all this. I have no idea what she is thinking. It is lingering guilt from Germany's past? Merkel's upbringing as daughter of a liberal Lutheran pastor? Trying to make Germany look "nice" after the Greece controversy?
I think what has played a great role in her decision is what happened to her in July when a Palestinian girl cried in front of her on TV because her family was going to be deported from Germany. Merkel had the right reaction back then, she told the girl in the most humane way possible that there are rules, and that although it's always sad when a family is deported, especially when the children go to school, rules have to be applied, otherwise there's no rule of law anymore, and furthermore she, as chancellor, couldn't intervene in the special case of that little girl, otherwise it wouldn't be fair for the other immigrant families.

I thought Merkel was remarkable when she said that. In many other countries, faced with a crying girl on TV, the politicians would have panicked and said something like "ok, my advisors are going to have a look at your case, we'll find a solution." Unfortunately she was criticized for the seemingly cold way in which she reacted, and it reinforced the perception of a harsh and cold chancellor (a perception already created by her handling of the Greek crisis).

I think that has affected her. She likes to be liked, like most leaders, and seeing that polls showed the Germans were in favor of welcoming the refugees, she probably decided to go with the flow and open the gates, so as to appear more humane and caring.

I don't really believe that it was a grand strategic thinking in terms of the future demographics of Germany. To me it's more like a political reaction both to the current mood among the German public and to the perception that she was a cold leader. If the mood of the German public changes, Merkel will probably change her stance on the refugees. She always goes with the flow.
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  #477  
Old Posted Sep 9, 2015, 12:53 AM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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some far fetched criticism and speculations over here in the forum are more similar to this:

Quote:
French far right leader Marine Le Pen accuses Germany of opening doors to refugees for cheap labour

By Rachel Middleton
September 7, 2015 06:46 BST 532

Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's right-wing National Front party, has accused Germany of opening its doors to refugees to exploit them for cheap labour.

In a meeting in the southeastern city of Marseille, a key French destination for migrants from north Africa, she also accused Germany of trying to impose its immigration policy on the EU.

"Germany probably thinks its population is moribund, and it is probably seeking to lower wages and continue to recruit slaves through mass immigration," she said.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-far-...labour-1518699

Last edited by laufwerk; Sep 9, 2015 at 7:46 AM.
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  #478  
Old Posted Sep 11, 2015, 8:47 AM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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Let's get refugees working quickly: Merkel

Quote:
Let's get refugees working quickly: Merkel

Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday that getting large numbers of successful asylum seekers working would be the best way of integrating them into German society.

The Chancellor said she was impressed by "the amount of love and affection refugees are hosted with here".

And she added that integrating children quickly into schools in "welcome classes" aimed at those who spoke no German at all, as happens in Berlin, was a "trend-setting concept" that could be a model for all of Germany.

Published: 10 Sep 2015 15:47 GMT+02:00
http://www.thelocal.de/20150910/lets...quickly-merkel


While I think some words are for now maybe too enthusiastic, it seems the german government is at least taking it seriously the cause of refugees and their integration. I can only whish, if they want to stay here, they can get a better life and feel as germans as soon as possible and the rest of society help them feel that way too
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  #479  
Old Posted Sep 11, 2015, 5:23 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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I doubt the refugees will be "cheap labor". Germany now has a minimum wage that applies to all, and Germany needs skilled labor, not "cheap labor".

In any case, Germany reports that 20% of asylum applicants are illiterate. I assume most will not be working, and will be on generous public assistance, living off the misplaced generosity of Germany.
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  #480  
Old Posted Sep 11, 2015, 6:29 PM
laufwerk laufwerk is offline
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It´s a huge challenge in any case, but I don´t like speculations, I just would like those people could have a better life and live from their own work, wether in germany or elswhere or better in their original countries


Quote:
By Anthony Faiola September 10 at 10:00 PM

The refugee crisis could actually be a boon for Germany

Couple that with that fact that many of the asylum seekers — especially Syrians — are highly educated or skilled workers and include doctors, engineers and architects. And suddenly, for Germany, some say, what initially seems like a crisis becomes something else.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...2f3_story.html

Last edited by laufwerk; Sep 11, 2015 at 6:53 PM.
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