Housing market

[SteelTown]

Another perspective is that vacancy rate will plummet. Therefore resulting an apartment high rise rental boom.

[Pearlstreet]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Another perspective is that vacancy rate will plummet. Therefore resulting an apartment high rise rental boom.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Rent here is already high and sometimes higher than that of Burlington.

[beanmedic]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

Another perspective is that vacancy rate will plummet. Therefore resulting an apartment high rise rental boom.

In the long run.

In the short run, demand for existing units will increase and supply will decrease, which will cause the price to rise.

The problem is that this may squeeze low income renters out of affordable housing before the market returns to equilibrium in the long run.

[Pearlstreet]

With such changes in the rental environment it should flush out alot of garbage. Call me inhumane, but some of the crap I hear is nuts and should leave town. You can't rehabilitate them all.

I just got a message from some guy wondering if he can rent my place. "It's for me and my 'yol lady, I'm on ODB, do not work and injured because I got stabbed in the throat. Here's my number so call me back right away - OK?" ...Jesus

Who needs that kind of drama?

[thistleclub]

To put a shape on the threat the Spec hints at, 4,000 homeless would double the city's homelessness stats as captured in the SPRC's On Any Given Night (2010):

During 2009, 3,697 individuals stayed at one of seven emergency shelters with the majority, 77% staying less than the maximum length of stay (42 days). 5,171 individuals and families were on the social housing waiting list as of March 31, 2010. According to 2006 census data, 33,340 or 44% of renter households in Hamilton spent more than 30% of their household income on shelter.

[thistleclub]

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain: MPAC President & CAO Antoni Wisniowski will be guesting on The Agenda with Steve Paikin tonight, discussing MPAC's mandate and how it goes about assessing the province's property values.

UPDATE: Video of the interview is now up.

[Pearlstreet]

Sign this petition if you oppose rental licencing in Hamilton.

http://www.activism.com/en_CA/petiti...ng-by-law/9850

[SteelTown]

Hamilton one of few bright spots on housing index

http://www.thespec.com/news/business...-housing-index

The Teranet-National Bank index of Canadian housing prices continues to show effects from cooler demand for residential properties in most big markets.

The December price index was up 3.1 per cent in 2012 — the lowest increase in three years.

On a month-to-month basis, the index was down 0.4 per cent from November — marking one of the weakest Decembers on record going back 13 years.

The composite index covering 11 major urban centres stood at 153.45 last month, down from 154.02 in November.

Eight of 11 local markets tracked by the Teranet land registry system showed declines from November, including Calgary and Edmonton.

There were also declines in Halifax, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Vancouver and higher readings in Hamilton, Quebec City and Victoria.

[thistleclub]

Earlier this week, the REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington posted some interesting performance charts of 10-year residential real estate results for 14 communities in the RAHB market area.

Average Price, 2003-2012

Burlington: $251,533 > $454,001 (+80.5%)
Hamilton West: $176,272 > $293,065 (+66.3%)
Dundas: $217,462 > $355,891 (+63.7%)
Flamborough: $307,866 > $495,044 (+60.8%)
Grimsby: $217,592 > $348,694 (+60.3%)
Hamilton Mountain: $168,104 > $264,559 (+57.4%)
Stoney Creek: $200,474 > $313,166 (+56.2%)
Hamilton Centre: $103,940 > $161,799 (+55.7%)
Ancaster: $308,379 > $462,579 (+50.0%)
Hamilton East: $134,042 > $198,977 (+48.4%)
Glanbrook: $234,154 > $342,216 (+46.2%)
Dunnville: $132,361 > $193,382 (+46.1%)
Caledonia: $199,335 > $268,822 (+34.9%)
Waterdown: $248,140 > $299,165 (+20.6%)

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Interesting numbers - not surprising but interesting just the same.

My parents bought their first home - in Dundas near Central Public School - in 1970 for $75,000. They later sold it for about $150,000 in 1985. I have no idea what it's value is now but I believe it last sold in the late-90s for something in the low-$400s.

My place - purchased downtown in 2006 - has appreciated somewhat but I don't expect miracles like that.

[movingtohamilton]

Can someone point me to a map which shows the boundaries of the communities cited? I am uncertain of the dividing line between Hamilton Centre and Hamilton East.

Thanks.

[matt602]

Politically, it's Ottawa street I believe. That's where Ward 3 and 4 divide.

[movingtohamilton]

Originally Posted by matt602

Politically, it's Ottawa street I believe. That's where Ward 3 and 4 divide.

We live south of Main, between Wentworth and Sherman. (Ottawa St is much further east). Ward 3. Are we in Hamilton Centre?

[thistleclub]

Haven't been able to track down definitive maps or MLS definitions (if they even exist) but going off local realtors' map listings the most conservative approximation of Hamilton Centre seems to be be Ward 2, while the more common/liberal approximation would be Wards 2 and 3. Lower city west of Queen would therefore be Hamilton West (ie. Ward 1), while east of Wellington/Ottawa would be Hamilton East (ie. Wards 4 & 5).

There will inevitably be subjective shading applied: I've seen colloquial terms like "West Central", "South Central" and "East Central" pop up as well.

Updated: The Subareas layer of RAHB's Neighbourhood Map suggests the West/Central/East borderlines may be James and Kenilworth.

[movingtohamilton]

Thanks for the info. Overall it looks the "lower city" has seen considerable appreciation in house values over the past 10 years. It will be interesting to see what happens when all-day GO train service is available.

[thistleclub]

Lower city has traditionally been undervalued, of course, which magnifies the relative value of the price correction.

Average Price Rise, 2003-2012

Burlington: $202,468
Flamborough: $187,178
Ancaster: $154,200
Dundas: $138,429
Grimsby: $131,102
Hamilton West: $116,793
Stoney Creek: $112,692
Glanbrook: $108,062
Hamilton Mountain: $96,455
Caledonia: $69,487
Hamilton East: $64,935
Dunnville: $61,021
Hamilton Centre: $57,859
Waterdown: $51,025

[thistleclub]

Here’s another take on the recent RAHB survey, breaking the decade in half.

Average Units Listed & Sold Annually

Ancaster
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 831
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 932 (+12.2%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 530
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 542 (+2.3%)

Burlington
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 4,341
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 4,358 (+0.4%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 3,344
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 3,182 (-4.8%)

Caledonia
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 270
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 242 (-10.4%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 204
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 175 (-14.2%)

Dundas
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 457
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 471 (+3.1%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 356
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 338 (-5.1%)

Dunnville
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 149
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 176 (+18.1%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 114
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 110 (-3.5%)

Flamborough
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 448
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 485 (+8.3%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 246
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 250 (+1.6%)

Glanbrook
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 348
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 531 (+52.6%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 224
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 333 (+48.7%)

Grimsby
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 622
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 611 (-1.8%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 435
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 393 (-9.7%)

Hamilton Centre
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 2,120
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 1,748 (-17.5%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 1,394
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 1,089 (-21.9%)

Hamilton East
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 1,164
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 1,140 (-2.1%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 892
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 780 (-12.6%)

Hamilton Mountain
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 2,704
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 2,619 (-3.1%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 2,140
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 1,879 (-12.2%)

Hamilton West
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 1,094
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 990 (-9.5%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 811
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 689 (-15.0%)

Stoney Creek
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 1,269
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 1,440 (+13.5%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 902
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 905 (+0.3%)

Waterdown
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2003-2007: 365
Avg Units Listed, Annually, 2008-2012: 429 (+17.5%)
Avg Units Sold, Annually 2003-2007: 306
Avg Units Sold, Annually, 2008-2012: 314 (+2.6%)

[thistleclub]

How low will house prices go?
(Canadian Business, Tim Shufelt, Jan 17, 2013)

Last summer, having surveyed their local real estate market, and finding themselves spooked by deteriorating prices, Rheanna Mushet and her husband, Justin, decided to sell their Burnaby condo. “We wanted to cash out,” Mushet says, adding that they may end up living in her parents’ basement for a while as they wait out the downturn in the Vancouver market. “We’re going to make sure we get the most for our money. There’s no hurry.” She only regrets not acting sooner. By the time they listed, buyers were no longer competing for the privilege of overpaying. For six months, the Mushets waited for an offer and showed their condo to prospective buyers who seemed to be almost looking for a reason to pass. “They were very choosy,” she says. “‘It’s not on the right floor. The ceiling’s not high enough. There’s a stain on your carpet.’ Just the silliest things that before wouldn’t even be a consideration.” They finally agreed to sell for $22,000 below their original asking price to the first person to make an offer. She accepted the fact that her condo just wasn’t worth what she had hoped. Many other sellers are soon going to have to come to the same realization.

Before every housing correction, there’s a Looney Tunes moment. In the animated universe, there’s a gravitational peculiarity that briefly suspends an overzealous pursuer in mid-air, just long enough to flash a HELP! sign, before plummeting off the cliff he failed to navigate. When it comes to overheated real estate, there is a pause that follows the outset of a correction, during which the market fails to realize there is nothing below but air.

The pattern is familiar: it starts with slowing sales activity. Listings begin to generate fewer offers. Would-be homeowners start to see the sense in holding off. In Toronto, where less than a year ago a rundown semi-detached could sell for $100,000 or more over asking price, the era of the bidding war is fading. “Buyers are sensing that prices are going to come down, so why buy now?” says Thomas Neal, a Royal LePage agent in Toronto, where housing transactions in December slid by 25% from the prior year. In Vancouver, the number of homes sold last year trailed the 10-year average by 25%. It is in those two markets where the twin epicentres of the Canadian housing shakeup reside. But the ground is beginning to shift under the national market as a whole. Those kinds of numbers support the view that “a potentially severe housing correction is underway,” says David Madani, an economist at Capital Economics, who for months has been predicting a 25% decline in Canadian home prices.

But as usual, one-half of the market refuses to look down. “We’ve got a number of sellers who say, ‘If we’re not going to sell for a particular value, we’re not going to sell at all,’” says Victoria real estate agent Tony Joe. “A lot of people are still pricing their properties based on yesterday’s market.” So, even though demand is weakening, prices have yet to fall for most of the country.

The reluctance of sellers to compromise is understandable, given recent history. For more than a decade, real estate in Canada appreciated almost without interruption. Even the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession registered as little more than a blip. Meanwhile, most economists take the current trends as indicative of a “soft landing” for the sector, with just a slight moderation in prices afoot. But asking a bank economist or real estate market insider about the likelihood of a soft landing is like “asking your barber if you need a haircut,” says George Athanassakos, a finance professor at the Richard Ivey School of Business, who expects a “severe correction,” and soon. The current resilience in home values could simply be the brief mid-air pause before physics brings about the plunge fated for inflated housing markets and cartoon coyotes alike.

[coalminecanary]

Since we have barely any condos (and only a handful of overpriced ones), plus some of the lowest prices in the country for urban detached and semi detached homes, I don't think we'll see the huge drops that the big cities will.

If we can hold off wasting money on megaprojects and start making lower hamilton more liveable, we could see years of real estate growth while most other cities fall off their respective cliffs.

A livable core will reduce all of our taxes and increase all of our property values. I think it's worth trading the 8-minute-drive-through for that.

[movingtohamilton]

coalminecanary, are there "hot spots" in the lower city where price growth has been too rapid and a correction is coming?

Also, I assume the Connaught hotel condo project is counting on out-of-towners moving here. Can 900 units be sold to locals?