NEW YORK | 30 Park Place (99 Church St) | 937 FT / 285 M | 82 FLOORS

[yankeesfan1000]

Originally Posted by babybackribs2314

I would disagree in the near-term; potentially the long-term, as well.

In the near-term, the WTC is taking forever to get built, and it's unlikely (IMO) that 2 WTC will be completed before 2020. So the entire complex has another decade to go until full build-out, leaving a gaping hole where 2 WTC will rise.

The other problem is the glut of retail space about to hit the market. There is too much retail development underway in the neighborhood for all of it to be successful; Fulton Center, the WTC Transit Hub, the WTC itself, and Brookfield's World Financial Center. In fact, Brookfield is attempting to turn the WFC into an uber-luxury mall with stores like Gucci and Prada - because people definitely venture down past the West Side Highway to go shopping at a nearly-dead mall.

The retail problem will manifest in high vacancy rates and 'poor' tenants, IMO, as there is simply too much space to accommodate the current level of demand - and most of this space will open in the next two years, to boot.

Beyond those issues, NYC is facing the effects of climate change, and the neighborhood is vulnerable to storm surge events, as Sandy proved. Assuming the city does not get its act together before one or two more major events - which, unfortunately, seems likely - there is no way luxury residential will be sustainable in the neighborhood, given insurance rates and the preference of the uber-rich to not live in buildings that get flooded out once a decade. 57th Street does not have to deal with this issue as it is at a much higher elevation, besides The Pyramid.

In conclusion, the vicinity is not well-suited to uber-luxe/supertall development for a number of reasons. Unfortunate, but that's my take!

"Current level of demand," key phrase.

There are four to six hotels planned in the area, a couple of new dorms, 1 WTC set to open, 4 WTC set to open, 3 looks like it'll get a tenant deal finalized by years end or early 2014, plus all the residential projects, the 70 Pine conversion will have several hundred apartments and a couple hundred hotel rooms alone.

If there really was a glut of retail, would Westfield wouldn't be able to lease 90 percent of the first 360,000 sf of the WTC mall for between $500-$600 a sf. Those retailers are getting their foot in the door when all these new hotels, apartments, and offices open up in the coming years.

[babybackribs2314]

Originally Posted by yankeesfan1000

"Current level of demand," key phrase.

There are four to six hotels planned in the area, a couple of new dorms, 1 WTC set to open, 4 WTC set to open, 3 looks like it'll get a tenant deal finalized by years end or early 2014, plus all the residential projects, the 70 Pine conversion will have several hundred apartments and a couple hundred hotel rooms alone.

If there really was a glut of retail, would Westfield wouldn't be able to lease 90 percent of the first 360,000 sf of the WTC mall for between $500-$600 a sf. Those retailers are getting their foot in the door when all these new hotels, apartments, and offices open up in the coming years.

Eh, we will see. I think the extent of the retail is unreasonable and I have friends in investment banking close to the deals who agree. The hotels opening downtown don't cater to the kind of people who shop at Gucci/Prada et al (aside from the Four Seasons at 30 PP), and Fifth/Madison/SoHo are already the established uber-luxe shopping districts.

I think 57th Street between 8th and 5th is poised to becoming the next extremely high-end corridor, not the WFC... it's really quite laughable IMO.

[yankeesfan1000]

Well you said it yourself, the WFC is "attempting" to turn itself into a high end mall. I haven't seen any indication that Prada/Gucci have signed leases downtown in any of these new facilities, it's just the hopes and dreams of Brookfield that this is all very high end.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by yankeesfan1000

Well you said it yourself, the WFC is "attempting" to turn itself into a high end mall. I haven't seen any indication that Prada/Gucci have signed leases downtown in any of these new facilities, it's just the hopes and dreams of Brookfield that this is all very high end.

Not true. Brookfield has already signed Ferragamo, Hermes, Burberry, Zegna, Michael Kors and others for Brookfield Place.

And the WTC retail is targeting similar types of luxury stores.

There's no reason that Lower Manhattan can't have luxury retail. These types of luxury outlets can easily have multiple stores throughout Manhattan.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by babybackribs2314

IIn fact, Brookfield is attempting to turn the WFC into an uber-luxury mall with stores like Gucci and Prada - because people definitely venture down past the West Side Highway to go shopping at a nearly-dead mall.

The WTC mall was the highest grossing mall on earth prior to 9-11. The WFC mall was also a very high-grossing mall prior to 9-11. Not sure why you would think that these malls will be "nearly dead", considering the massive crowds and improvements relative to back when the originial malls were open.

Originally Posted by babybackribs2314

The retail problem will manifest in high vacancy rates and 'poor' tenants, IMO, as there is simply too much space to accommodate the current level of demand - and most of this space will open in the next two years, to boot.

There is no more space being built now than what existed prior to 9-11. Why would there be a problem now and not back then, especially considering that Lower Manhattan is much more of a destination now and has tens of thousands of additional affluent residents?

Originally Posted by babybackribs2314

Beyond those issues, NYC is facing the effects of climate change, and the neighborhood is vulnerable to storm surge events, as Sandy proved.

Sandy did almost nothing to the Battery Park City neighborhood and environs. BPC sits on landfill and did just fine during Sandy. If there were another thousand-year storm, BPC would be the best location downtown, as it was built to withstand storm surges.

[yankeesfan1000]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Not true. Brookfield has already signed Ferragamo, Hermes, Burberry, Zegna, Michael Kors and others for Brookfield Place.

And the WTC retail is targeting similar types of luxury stores.

There's no reason that Lower Manhattan can't have luxury retail. These types of luxury outlets can easily have multiple stores throughout Manhattan.

Thanks for the info, didn't know that. Lower Manhattan is in need of these types of spaces, especially when you consider the thousands of new hotel occupants, residents, and office workers who will occupy all these new buildings.

[baseball1992]

Any construction on site yet?

I feel like it should be starting any time now.

[Glossy]

In the last couple of days new traffic barriers have been erected around the site. There is lots of activity, but I don't know if it qualifies as construction. It seems like preparatory activity - putting up those barriers, unloading stuff from trucks.

[sbarn]

I past the site today. There were many workers on site. It looked like they were repairing / shoring the walls of the foundation. I think several years of exposure has been hard on the concrete. Construction is imminent.

[hunser]

http://www.lowermanhattan.info/const...eet_33450.aspx

*The following information was last updated on October 23, 2013.

Superstructure construction resumed in October 2013, through approximately January 2015.
Facade work will take place starting February 2014 through summer 2015.
The Temporary Certificate of Occupancy (TCO) for the hotel is expected in approximately fall 2016; for the residences in approximately spring 2016.

Foundation work concluded in July 2009

[StoOgE]

We have liftoff!

Good news. I think as the WTC continues to come online (with Fulton, and the PATH station) you are going to see lower manhattan take off. There are still a lot of people who work down here.

WFC is going to be in a good position soon. It's underground tunnel to the Path station just opened up. Once that connects into the mall at the WTC it's going to be huge for them.

[fimiak]

I walked by this site for years from the train station to the Woolworth building. Nice to see it starting up. I feel like this is the extension of the WTC complex into residential/hotel space (since it is Silverstein's).

[Glossy]

[yankeesfan1000]

Nice update. So hyped on this building.

[hunser]

Thanks for the update Glossy!
NYguy, can you please remove the "ON HOLD" from the thread title (+67 floors instead of 82)? Thanks.
I think it's pretty clear this one is back from the dead!

[reencharles]

Finally action!

[NYC GUY]

Considering that Beekman Tower is 876' and it makes a decent peak in the skyline this one should be good.

[tommaso]

i can't wait for the white glove service!!! This is excellence right here!

[Onn]

They're here!!

ZippytheChimpy, WNY

[yankeesfan1000]

Holy hell that was fast.