The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Truenorth00]

I'm not going to apologize for challenging the same unsubstantiated FUD that keeps getting regurgitated every six months ad nauseam. Maybe the mods should police that too...

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Cheap batteries and solar will bring reliable electricity all over the world. The same way they adopted cell phones instead of land lines.

Yep. People keep seeing this as some green hippy thing rather than a solution to energy poverty which afflicts so much of the world.

Not for nothing has this been called the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You seem to have a strange understanding of physics and economics.

Where do you think the hydrogen to power all those vehicles will come from? Or do you imagine that it's cheap to ship it from half a world away?

The developing world is going to electrify even quicker than us once parity is hit, because oil is even more expensive (relatively) to them than it is to us. And they aren't going to wait for hydrogen to take off. They don't have the luxury of time to wait for the tech to mature, or the capital to build a hydrogen distribution infrastructure.

And with most of the developing world still not having personal cars, what matters is what happens to buses, taxis and jitneys. And the business case to electrify those is completely different from a personal vehicle.

I think it's you that doesn't have the understanding of physics or economics.

Electrolysis is just one way of producing hydrogen as you can also do so with oil and NG and still be nearly emissions free.

Hydrogen from electricity requires a country to be self-sufficient in electricity while hydrogen simply requires you to have working ports.

As I stated, countries didn't adopt ICE vehicles because they had the oil to fuel them but rather because they had other countries that could do it for them and the same is true with hydrogen.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm not going to apologize for challenging the same unsubstantiated FUD that keeps getting regurgitated every six months ad nauseam. Maybe the mods should police that too...

Unsubstantiated?... I didn't regurgitate anything that was mentioned 6 months ago, literally, 2 weeks ago there was a study published by UC Davis that was referenced in an article I posted that highlighted the challenges of full EV adoption... then you proceeded to call me a troll, that put no critical thought into why I posted the message, and that I just fell for click bait.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Hydrogen from electricity requires a country to be self-sufficient in electricity while hydrogen simply requires you to have working ports.

Is this really what you think? Hydrogen is probably the most difficult thing on earth to transport safely and efficiently.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Is this really what you think? Hydrogen is probably the most difficult thing on earth to transport safely and efficiently.

There's been talk of using ammonia to transport hydrogen. I'm not sure of the end to end efficiency of that though, doesn't seem like it would be cheaper than transporting electrons.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I think it's you that doesn't have the understanding of physics or economics.

Electrolysis is just one way of producing hydrogen as you can also do so with oil and NG and still be nearly emissions free.

Hydrogen from electricity requires a country to be self-sufficient in electricity while hydrogen simply requires you to have working ports.

As I stated, countries didn't adopt ICE vehicles because they had the oil to fuel them but rather because they had other countries that could do it for them and the same is true with hydrogen.

Producing the hydrogen is not the hard (or expensive) part. Shipping and distributing it is.

Here's a simple experiment. Get on Google Maps and look up where the nearest hydrogen filling station is to your home. Compare that to where the nearest fast charger is. There's a difference in infrastructure, despite the fact that we're sitting in a G7 country. Imagine the difference in a developing country. And that's before we get into the fact that any outlet can be used to charge a BEV. The only difference is time.

But like I said earlier, the biggest driver in the developing world is going to be fleets. Diesel is expensive and battery electric buses and delivery vehicles keep coming down in price. This is why BYD is running around all over South America selling them electric buses. Their governments will happily spend even a bit more on a bus, if it means less imported fuel, which is a big cost to their economies.

https://dialogochino.net/en/climate-...latin-america/

And like I said, way more buses, taxis and jitneys than private vehicles in those places. Waiting a decade for hydrogen to mature while driving 30 000 - 70 000 km a year on imported diesel is expensive. If they have a business case to switch to something cheaper earlier, they aren't going to wait.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

There's been talk of using ammonia to transport hydrogen. I'm not sure of the end to end efficiency of that though, doesn't seem like it would be cheaper than transporting electrons.

We tend to think of this entirely from our perspective as an oil exporting nation. But if you are India, why the heck would you want to import hydrogen over simply synthesizing your own or simply deploying alternatives where possible?

I doubt developing countries are looking at the end of the oil age thinking to themselves, "Let's create another dependency which fucks our balance of payments just as much as oil did!"

To the extent that hydrogen is shipped around the world, I think it'll end up being for two reasons. The first is countries with limited renewables potential (like Japan and Korea), and next for heavy industry, for which renewables, won't be enough. But that's a very different and smaller market than oil today.

[Hackslack]

CO2 at Mauna Loa exceeds 420 ppm for the first time in human history

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca...-human-history

Despite lockdowns, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are still rising fast, and are now higher than they've been in over 3.6 million years.

According to NOAA, "The atmospheric burden of CO2 is now comparable to where it was during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period around 3.6 million years ago, when concentrations of carbon dioxide ranged from about 380 to 450 parts per million. During that time sea level was about 78 feet higher 24 m than today, the average temperature was 7 degrees Fahrenheit 3.8°C higher than in pre-industrial times, and studies indicate large forests occupied areas of the Arctic that are now tundra."

[milomilo]

The new electric F150 looks sick, glad they kept it normal looking. The range still isn't great though - shows we do still have a long way to go. I know that it won't be enough to replace gas trucks in resource industry when you combine that with the lack of chargers out in the bush.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by milomilo

The new electric F150 looks sick, glad they kept it normal looking. The range still isn't great though - shows we do still have a long way to go. I know that it won't be enough to replace gas trucks in resource industry when you combine that with the lack of chargers out in the bush.

Good thing 97% of trucks like that are used to get groceries and drive through fast food.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Good thing 97% of trucks like that are used to get groceries and drive through fast food.

And even where they are used by actual workers, it's often within 100 km of a city.

I have a feeling that the range isn't going to seem as restrictive as people think, once it gets on the road. Towing range is probably the real challenge.

In any event, I am enjoying the narrative that EVs will never catch on, slowly falling apart. In 2020, I said we'd see a flood of models over the next two years and substantial mainstreaming over the next two years. The real fun starts in 2023-2025. Companies like VW will be taking the lessons they learned, and developing their second gen platforms and taking advantage of battery prices approaching parity. I suspect the War Room contingent is going to be really struggling when we get to that point.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

The new electric F150 looks sick, glad they kept it normal looking. The range still isn't great though - shows we do still have a long way to go. I know that it won't be enough to replace gas trucks in resource industry when you combine that with the lack of chargers out in the bush.

Is is even socially acceptable to buy an electric truck and work in the resource sector? I'd worry about some crazy nut taking a baseball bat to my truck headlamps.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Good thing 97% of trucks like that are used to get groceries and drive through fast food.

Well I know mine gets used for work and couldn't make do with the short range on offer, even if it does spend a lot of time in drive throughs.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Is is even socially acceptable to buy an electric truck and work in the resource sector? I'd worry about some crazy nut taking a baseball bat to my truck headlamps.

Yeah I'd agree, I think even if it made economic sense to get electric vehicles there will definitely be cultural resistance to it. We'll see though, once they actually exist I could easily see some of the producers saying they are electrify their fleet, then once the guys are forced to use them, they might find they aren't so bad. I'd give it 5 or 10 years though, the trucks coming out now are first gen, proof of concept really.

[milomilo]

Oh yeah, and big surprise, the war room's report has been delayed again. They really must have a lot of evidence to go through!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Oh yeah, and big surprise, the war room's report has been delayed again. They really must have a lot of evidence to go through!

The giant methane clouds they are putting out that are getting picked up by satellites ain't helping the narrative.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...erta-gas-field

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I have a feeling that the range isn't going to seem as restrictive as people think, once it gets on the road. Towing range is probably the real challenge.

Yeah personal towing is a huge issue. Tesla (and others) are looking to solve trucking with massive batteries and very specific charging stops with massive electric current for charging. Similar to electric buses, which work well.

Recreational towing is the tough combination of long range, heavy loads, and remote locations. All of the fast charging stations are still built primarily in a parking lot style too, not a pull through for trailers. A few Supercharger sites have pull throughs, but I'm surprised they haven't been building more.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Yeah I'd agree, I think even if it made economic sense to get electric vehicles there will definitely be cultural resistance to it. We'll see though, once they actually exist I could easily see some of the producers saying they are electrify their fleet, then once the guys are forced to use them, they might find they aren't so bad. I'd give it 5 or 10 years though, the trucks coming out now are first gen, proof of concept really.

The cultural decoupling between Alberta (and SK, NFLD and NS to lesser extent) and oil and gas is going to be really interesting for me over the decades to come. I can imagine that there's at least a few people who never imagined they'd see an electric F150 (with all the cultural connotations of that truck) come so soon.

[vid]

Originally Posted by milomilo

The new electric F150 looks sick, glad they kept it normal looking. The range still isn't great though - shows we do still have a long way to go. I know that it won't be enough to replace gas trucks in resource industry when you combine that with the lack of chargers out in the bush.

480km is 5 hours of 90mk/h driving. Pretty sure most of them will be fine. Where gas is necessary, it will be used. Most people don't need that.

My work is looking at getting electric vehicles for an 8 hour a day delivery shift and what we deliver weighs more than an F150s payload capacity.

The people who pay the bills will look at the math and technical aspects of these trucks and determine which fuel source is better for a specific application. We have gas and diesel engines for different applications, electric is just broadening the spectrum in the mean time.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Is is even socially acceptable to buy an electric truck and work in the resource sector? I'd worry about some crazy nut taking a baseball bat to my truck headlamps.

You sure have said a lot about the resource sector in this post.