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  #221  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2014, 4:20 PM
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How Hot has it Been this Summer so far in NB

Fredericton:

Days 20+: 71
Days 25+: 46
Days 30+: 9

Moncton:

Days 20+: 66
Days 25+: 40
Days 30+: 5

Saint John:

Days 20+: 57
Days 25+: 13
Days 30+: 1
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  #222  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2014, 5:19 PM
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from the CBC website:

Population Change in Atlantic Canada Q3 2012 - Q2 2014

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  #223  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 1:43 AM
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Nova Scotia's demographics are going to be scary for the next 5-10 years.
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  #224  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 1:53 PM
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Nova Scotia's demographics are going to be scary for the next 5-10 years.
I can tell you my generation (I'm 23) is trying their best to up these numbers (I know many people my age and younger with 1-2 kids so far). This phenomenon definitely won't help with the crumbling economy, but hey we will have more "young people"!
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  #225  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 3:20 PM
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I can tell you my generation (I'm 23) is trying their best to up these numbers (I know many people my age and younger with 1-2 kids so far). This phenomenon definitely won't help with the crumbling economy, but hey we will have more "young people"!
The same is equally true of New Brunswick, but having more kids is irrelevant if the economy isn't expanding. They won't have any reason to stay.
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  #226  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 3:31 PM
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Nova Scotia's demographics are going to be scary for the next 5-10 years.
Yeah New Brunswick will be even scarier without a large urban area to offset it's losses. Of course it was all Nova Scotia at one time.


Source: Nova Scotia Archives
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  #227  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 4:22 PM
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I posted this yesterday in the national population statistics thread, re: population decline:

I have this feeling like we're going to keep this up (very slow population growth coupled with some years of population loss) until the region's urban-rural ratio is closer to the national average.

The cities aren't growing blazing fast, and they're definitely not going to give the western boomtowns a run for their money, but they're doing decently.

Meanwhile, places like Pictou County, northern NB, Cape Breton, etc., are shrinking fast. (CB lost over 15% of its population since 1996—from 160,000 to 130,000, and still falling. And very few of those people are going to other places in the Maritimes. Instead, they're mostly going west.)

If this keeps up, the relative urbanity of Atlantic Canada is going to grow a lot faster than anticipated even a few years ago. It'll be interesting, as much of the political climate of the region is fixated on the supposed idea that we're a rural region.


So I think that's an interesting element of this. The population is overall shrinking, but this is coming entirely at the expense of rural areas. I mean, not that urbanites should be cavalier—we're all in this together, and Nova Scotia's terrible year for out-migration in 2013 also resulted in a big slowdown in Halifax's growth.

But the region's urbanity is growing even as the population declines—in fact, urbanity grows faster in years with greater population decline, because that decline is rural. I would like to think that as this continues and urban Atlantic Canada asserts more cultural and economic dominance, we'll be in a better position to rebound economically, across the entire region. After all, it's the rural-based manufacturing and resource industries that are the real economic drag. If all of NS had the economy of Halifax, we'd be doing great. If all of NB was like Moncton/Fredericton, the province would be in a far better economic position than Ontario or B.C.

Which isn't to suggest cutting rural areas loose. But I do think the best thing for us right now is to accept the urbanization of the region and not fight it out of misguided nostalgia for our rural roots, or whatever.
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  #228  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 5:52 PM
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But New Brunswicks 3 big cities (accounting the two CMAs and one CA) Equal over 370,000 people. It is spread over three cities, but they are all doing pretty well keeping and attracting people. Though Saint John is suffering in its city proper, the CMA is holding and you need to start somewhere. Fredericton is on the doorstep of 100,000 in its CA which will usher it into CMA status with a city proper of almost 60,000.
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  #229  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 6:12 PM
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Originally Posted by q12 View Post
Yeah New Brunswick will be even scarier without a large urban area to offset it's losses. Of course it was all Nova Scotia at one time.
Yes, but the Loyalist founders of the province in 1785 realized that Halifax's overbearing position in the colony would inhibit growth in "Sunbury County" (as NB was known at the time). They petitioned the king for a new Loyalist colony to be formed so that they could be masters of their own destiny instead.

Thank goodness they were successful in their endeavour or else what is now NB would resemble Cape Breton or northern NS, with large areas in steep decline with all growth centred in greater Haligon.

At least by being independent, we have our own growth centres who are doing quite well thank you very much. We are much better off on our own.

Cape Breton would be better off if they were still their own province too……
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  #230  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 6:46 PM
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Yes, but the Loyalist founders of the province in 1785 realized that Halifax's overbearing position in the colony would inhibit growth in "Sunbury County" (as NB was known at the time). They petitioned the king for a new Loyalist colony to be formed so that they could be masters of their own destiny instead.

Thank goodness they were successful in their endeavour or else what is now NB would resemble Cape Breton or northern NS, with large areas in steep decline with all growth centred in greater Haligon.

At least by being independent, we have our own growth centres who are doing quite well thank you very much. We are much better off on our own.

Cape Breton would be better off if they were still their own province too……
I MIGHT be a bit antagonistic and suggest it might be sort've better, regionally, if that had happened—if Halifax was a city of around a million people, it might be a greater centre of economic and cultural gravity/magnetism to benefit the whole region.

Probably Saint John, at the very least, would still have grown to a city of sizable regional importance, simply due to its port.

Of course it's all hypothetical. Fun as thought experiment, but who knows what would've happened...

I'm not sure Cape Breton would be better off as its own province. (Nova Scotia would be, though.)
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  #231  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 7:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Drybrain View Post
I MIGHT be a bit antagonistic and suggest it might be sort've better, regionally, if that had happened—if Halifax was a city of around a million people, it might be a greater centre of economic and cultural gravity/magnetism to benefit the whole region.

Probably Saint John, at the very least, would still have grown to a city of sizable regional importance, simply due to its port.

Of course it's all hypothetical. Fun as thought experiment, but who knows what would've happened...
An interesting thought experiment yes…….

If we were a single unified province, I predict:

- Fredericton wouldn't exist, or if it did, it would just be a small village of 2,500 souls or so. There would be no governmental structures and no university. CFB Gagetown might not even exist. There is no nearby agricultural hinterland like which sustains Woodstock for example. Fredericton therefore likely would not even be a regional services centre. It's destiny therefore might have been as a small lumbering village like Doaktown.

- Saint John would be Saint John I think, except I'm not sure if there would be a UNBSJ campus. That would depend on whether "greater Nova Scotia" had a provincial university system with campuses distributed around the province. Saint John would still have the port, and supposing the Irving's still existed in this alternate universe, it's industrial base as well. I don't think SJ would be any different than it is now.

- Moncton is a little harder to predict. That would depend on whether it became a railway hub in it's early history like it did in real life. I think it still might have as the Intercolonial Railway chose Moncton as it's hub without any significant political interference (AFAIK). There was heavy political interference however with the Grand Trunk and CNR decisions, so the destiny of Moncton in the early 20th century might have been different. Moncton however would still have become a distribution and transportation centre just due to it's central location. It would have become a decent sized city, but smaller than it is now - probably in the range of 75,000 or so. It likely wouldn't be the "Capital of Acadia" like it is now, as the Acadian population would only be about 12% in a "greater NS", instead of 30% in current NB. The Acadian population therefore would likely have been assimilated to a much greater degree than it is currently, and would instead would have drifted off to the million plus urban monster of Halifax to seek economic opportunity.

- Charlottetown would be something like Fredericton, with no governmental basis for it's economic prosperity. It however wouldn't be as bad off as Freddy since it does have an agricultural hinterland and would have remained a regional services centre. Charlottetown would likely have ended up like Summerside with a population in the 15-20,000 range.

Now, whether this is a preferable scenario to the current reality, I don't know. You state that "if Halifax was a city of around a million people, it might be a greater centre of economic and cultural gravity/magnetism to benefit the whole region". My opinion is that if Halifax were a city of a million or so people (at the expense of NB and PEI), that this would be good for anyone living within about 100 km of the peninsula. It would not be good however for those people living in rural western NB who instead of having decent services in a regional city like Fredericton only an hour away, would instead have to rely on bureaucrats and decision makers in a far off city six hours away who quite frankly couldn't give a shit about anything happening any further away than Truro……...
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  #232  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 8:06 PM
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Probably we would've seen something like what tends to happen in geographically larger provinces—one major city with a significant secondary centre, like Vancouver/Victoria or Toronto/Ottawa or Montreal/Quebec. I'd wager Halifax/Saint John would've taken up those roles. Charlottetown would be like Fredericton, but that wouldn't really be such a huge difference.

It seems like I'm crapping on New Brunswick, but I'm just imagining a world in which New Brunswick, as we know it, never existed. So while it's true that Fredericton would never really have developed much, that wouldn't really be a loss because no one would know any different. (Obviously if it disappeared today, that would be a whole other thing.)

I do think the region is cool and unique for having multiple significant centres, but I also think that part of our economic underperformance can be partly pinned on overly rural demographics, and the lack of a truly large city. (I also think about how architecturally impressive the old parts of Atlantic cities tend to be, and can't help but wish we had a real metropolis developed along those lines.)

You're probably right about Acadia—almost certainly there would have been a lot more assimilation into the dominant Anglo culture, and that would be really unfortunate.

EDIT: I love NB. Just thinking on how history might've played our differently and ways alternative timelines would be better/worse in different ways.
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  #233  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2014, 8:07 PM
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I don't think a zero-sum analysis makes sense. Who's to say that Saint John wouldn't have ended up with a million people in a larger province with better economies of scale and low taxes that might have allowed companies like Irving to expand more aggressively?

The comments about Halifax sucking the life out of places like CB have a similar flavour. I think the reality is that most of the growth in Halifax is unrelated and most of that economic activity is incompatible with smaller blue collar towns and rural areas. Most blue collar CBers meanwhile seem to head right to Alberta.

In BC there is an even larger gap in development but a relative lack of this type of thinking. I think this is a terrible cultural quirk of Atlantic Canada, unrelated to the way the economy actually works.
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  #234  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2014, 1:29 AM
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Not sure where to post this so in this thread it goes.

Car dependence hurting New Brunswick economy

The study found New Brunswickers are almost twice as likely to live and work in different communities than the average Canadian — 35.2 per cent compared to 20.6 per cent — and they are much more likely to commute by car — 90.4 per cent compared to 78.6 per cent.

[...]

The report said New Brunswickers spend 18.9 per cent of their budget on transportation, compared to the national average of 14.9 per cent, according to Statistics Canada's 2012 Survey of Household Spending.

It also noted car dependence is a barrier to retaining immigrants.

"Maritimers like to trumpet lower housing costs, but when you factor in access to cheaper transportation, cheaper groceries and better labour markets, it's not surprising that half of new Canadians arriving in New Brunswick leave for another province within five years," said Bourgeois.

[...]

Without accurate measures of those factors, governments underestimate the the full costs of car dependence, Bourgeois said.

"Government will continue - and even private businesses - will continue making decisions like instead of refurbishing a high school or hospital in a core area in Saint John or Moncton or what not, it will be cheaper to build a new one in the outskirts," he said.


Article: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-br...nomy-1.2736434
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  #235  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2014, 2:05 PM
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[QUOTE=MonctonRad;6691320] It likely wouldn't be the "Capital of Acadia" like it is now, as the Acadian population would only be about 12% in a "greater NS", instead of 30% in current NB. The Acadian population therefore would likely have been assimilated to a much greater degree than it is currently, and would instead would have drifted off to the million plus urban monster of Halifax to seek economic opportunity.

[QUOTE]

Also, a smaller Acadian population proportion might have led the ''Super Nova Scotia'' to be less ''in tune'' with Acadian concerns than NB has generally been (to varying degrees over the past century, though always much moreso than NS or PEI), and made the northern areas of NB flirt more openly with annexation to Quebec than they ever have.
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  #236  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2014, 2:14 PM
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Oh... and BTW Bonne fête des Acadiens!
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  #237  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2014, 7:28 PM
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I wonder what people think about the increasing density of population in the SE and the "emptying" of the North... do you think you'll see Moncton's (in particular) growth slow down a bit as the North runs out of folk moving South? Or will other *migration pick up the slack? I admit I'm interested if Dieppe can keep pulling 20%+...
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  #238  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2014, 10:38 PM
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I wonder what people think about the increasing density of population in the SE and the "emptying" of the North... do you think you'll see Moncton's (in particular) growth slow down a bit as the North runs out of folk moving South? Or will other *migration pick up the slack? I admit I'm interested if Dieppe can keep pulling 20%+...
I doubt Dieppe's growth rate sustains itself. The City is having difficulties with its finances and it's only a matter of time until rates are increased in an effort to lessen the fiscal burden on the municipality.

I recall reading somewhere (whether here or not) that the growth in Moncton does not necessarily match the decline of the North (IE Moncton is increasing interprovincially as much as it is provincially). If anything, people from the North are moving to other provinces just as much as they are to southern NB, so it may be incorrect to assume that MOncton's growth is dependant (or due to) solely the North.

In terms of the increasing density of the SE...of course i'm all for it. I'm for increasing the corridor between Moncton & Saint John and putting an emphasis on creating a stronger economic zone in the south as a whole. Communities like Hampton, Sussex, Petitcodiac are all growing at relatively stable rates. I've mentioned this to people previously, but having Sussex at half the size of the other big three in NB (so at roughly ~60K) would be wonderful for increasing the corridor between all three.

Continuing on that point, if we can increase the size and economic activity in communities like Sussex, Sackville, Amherst, and Truro, we can create a Maritime corridor stretching from Fredericton/Saint John, through Moncton, and towards Halifax (perhaps including PEI if you'd like). If the communities in between the larger centres are, well, larger, it makes things such as regional transportation (see: trains) much more feasible between cities.
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  #239  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2014, 8:39 PM
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New Brunswick manufacturing sales always blow other provinces out of the water in hard numbers and per capita. 1.75 Billion in July with Nova Scotia at 600 million and Manitoba at 1.5 billion. Why can't we excel in all other aspects?
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  #240  
Old Posted Sep 20, 2014, 12:59 PM
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The CBC website dealing with the NB election includes individual riding profiles. I thought it would be interesting to list the linguistic profiles for the nine ridings that encompass metro Moncton.

Albert…………………..….... En 92.0% Fr 6.2% (note that the Albert riding includes nearly half of Riverview).
Riverview………..….…….. En 88.7% Fr 8.6%
Moncton Southwest….. En 74.6% Fr 21.5%
Moncton Northwest….. En 70.9% Fr 24.0%
Moncton South………..... En 65.6% Fr 29.3%
Moncton East……..……... En 63.0% Fr 34.0%
Moncton Centre…….…... En 47.6% Fr 47.2%
Dieppe-Shediac Bay.…. En 26.6% Fr 70.3%
Dieppe………………..……... En 23.7% Fr 72.2%
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