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  #81  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 2:19 AM
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^I'm well aware of what's being developed. The notion that it's all within the grid is laughable. I wish. What has happened along the fringes of the Valley in the past 20 years is extremely sad. Estrella Mountain Ranch, Johnson Ranch and San Tan Valley, Gold Canyon, Anthem, Vistancia, Verrado, Sun City Festival, the list goes on and on of developments that bladed virgin desert.
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  #82  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:43 AM
Manitopiaaa Manitopiaaa is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
I don't see that ever happening.

And if the CB ever does combine them, then we'll know that the CSA, as a concept, has officially jumped the shark.
They're not added by Census Bureau. They're added by the White House Office of Management and Budget.

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Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas View Post
Austin's projected to have 4.5 million by 2040, which would put us between Minneapolis and Seattle on that list. Austin's city population has doubled and even tripled every 20 years off and on since 1850, so it's a safe bet it'll do it again. The only times it didn't do that was from 1900 to 1920, 1960 to 1980, and 1980 to 2000. Granted, in modern times it's becoming less frequent. Our lowest rate of growth was 16.8% from 1900 to 1920, and it was as high as 455% from 1850 to 1860, but it's been 20 to 52% since 1930. We're projected to hit 3 million in the metro by 2029.
Austin has 2,227,083 as of 2019. For it to have 4,500,000 by 2040 would mean growing by 108,234 people per year. I don't see any scenario where that happens. Even Dallas and Houston only get those numbers in good years.
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  #83  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:43 AM
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I really don't want to see 360/Capital of Texas Highway touched. I know that may be an unpopular opinion, but I'd rather not see this ugoed up with concrete. Besides, I'm not sure it really needs it. It's not like that area is ever going to densify anyway.

http://www.texasfreeway.com/Austin/photos/360/360.shtml

I-35, on the other hand, isn't winning any beauty contests anytime soon. It'll always be an ugly monster.
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  #84  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 5:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
They're not added by Census Bureau. They're added by the White House Office of Management and Budget.
Well whoever officially signs off on it, if Chicago and Milwaukee are ever combined into a single CSA, then we'll know that it's not remotely a measure of "cities", but rather of "regions".

And it's not that regional measures don't have their value, it's just that Chicago and Milwaukee will never functionally be a single entity.

But I also find the entire MSA county mash-up game to be deeply flawed to begin with, so it should be no surprise that I look at CSAs with an even more suspicious eye.
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  #85  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 3:27 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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This is not meant to be hate or anything, but I simply don't really understand the hype behind Austin.

I'm definitely rooting for it, don't get me wrong. But I find it ripe for a housing bubble, mainly because as already noted earlier in the thread, it's an extremely expensive inland city in an otherwise cheap state. There are almost no land constrictions that would impede growth, and eventually the demand will be met by the sprawl that will connect San Antonio and Austin.

It serves a purpose as a tech hub, sure, but I still find it to be extremely random that at some point the tech companies decided to set presence there rather than any other medium sized city in the region. One thing it has going for its potential tech scene is it's university, but those are a dime a dozen. Why did Austin become more dominant in the scene than say, Boulder/Denver?

Nashville is another that gives me the same vibes as being overly hyped for what it is.

I think Dallas is going to be the ''it'' city from now until when most of the forum members kick the bucket, that place seems to be simply exploding with growth. Hopefully it will morph into something more interesting than it is currently though because it's not attractive to me other than having a very low cost of living.
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  #86  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 3:54 PM
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I don't quite get Austin either. It seems pleasant enough, but I'm still confused why it's booming like it is.

It has mild winters and the surroundings aren't unattractive, and it's progressive for TX standards, but why all this hype? Why is tech concentrating there?
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  #87  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:24 PM
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Austin:
  • Big oil $$$$ from Houston and tech $$$$ from Dallas is #1 reason
  • "Business-friendly" state
  • Long a "tech" location (IBM, Tracor, Texas Instruments, Dell all between the 1970s and 1980s; Samsung and Apple in the 90s)
  • Attractive location for young workers (college town... UT main there and TAMU nearby, indie vibe, liberal for Texas, cheap 20 years ago, natural surroundings)
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  #88  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:26 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plinko View Post
^I'm well aware of what's being developed. The notion that it's all within the grid is laughable. I wish. What has happened along the fringes of the Valley in the past 20 years is extremely sad. Estrella Mountain Ranch, Johnson Ranch and San Tan Valley, Gold Canyon, Anthem, Vistancia, Verrado, Sun City Festival, the list goes on and on of developments that bladed virgin desert.
Half of what youn listed was literally built on former farms. You dont know what you are talking about and what is built in "virgin desert" is generally small compared to the mass developments of Gilbert and Chandler on virgin Dairy Farms.

Also why is there some magical problem with developing desert instead of Prairie? Forest? Plaines or grassland?

There is no shortage of desert I promise you
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  #89  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:27 PM
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Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
This is not meant to be hate or anything, but I simply don't really understand the hype behind Austin.
Yeah Austin reminds me of a bigger and trendier Indianapolis. That really pisses people from Austin off but I like Indianapolis!
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  #90  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:34 PM
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Indy has bad winters and crap scenery, though. I think Columbus is a better analogue for Indy.

But Austin has rough summers and the scenery isn't great, it's just good for TX. Both have kind of a generic, anonymous American heartland feel, though.
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  #91  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:42 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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The scenery and climate in Austin is lightyears better than Indianapolis.
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  #92  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 4:57 PM
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Not to beat a dead horse, but why is Austin white-hot and Louisville totally anonymous?

They have similar scenery, probably slight edge to Louisville. Both are in cheaper, low tax, business friendly states. Both are relatively liberal outliers. Louisville has way better urbanism, Austin is the state capital and its university is better. Louisville has good summers, Austin has good winters.

Also, why is Birmingham stagnant? Too black? Because it's Alabama? Birmingham has nicer scenery and urbanism than Austin. Still a relatively liberal outlier in a deep-red business friendly state with low taxes and minimal regulation. I think I'd rather live in Mountain Brook (the fancy suburb of Birmingham) than in the fancy Austin hill neighborhoods.
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  #93  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 5:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I don't quite get Austin either. It seems pleasant enough, but I'm still confused why it's booming like it is.

It has mild winters and the surroundings aren't unattractive, and it's progressive for TX standards, but why all this hype? Why is tech concentrating there?
Austin got a head start on becoming a tech startup hub after the Bay Area boomed in the aughts. I believe Austin is third behind the Bay Area and NYC in the amount of venture capital flowing to companies based there. Around the same time that startups started to get hot there, big tech decided to make Austin the back office to Silicon Valley. Apple, Facebook, and Google all established a large presence there within the past decade.
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  #94  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 5:15 PM
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
The scenery and climate in Austin is lightyears better than Indianapolis.
If you can tolerate the Hadean summers in Austin.
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  #95  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 5:23 PM
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Unless you're in one of those rare places like coastal california or hawaii, you're gonna have to pick your poison in the vast majority of the US.

Either:

Winters that are too cold and/or wet/gloomy.

Or:

Summers that are too hot and/or humid.
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  #96  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 5:47 PM
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And hurricanes and earthquakes
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  #97  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 5:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Not to beat a dead horse, but why is Austin white-hot and Louisville totally anonymous?

They have similar scenery, probably slight edge to Louisville. Both are in cheaper, low tax, business friendly states. Both are relatively liberal outliers. Louisville has way better urbanism, Austin is the state capital and its university is better. Louisville has good summers, Austin has good winters.

Also, why is Birmingham stagnant? Too black? Because it's Alabama? Birmingham has nicer scenery and urbanism than Austin. Still a relatively liberal outlier in a deep-red business friendly state with low taxes and minimal regulation. I think I'd rather live in Mountain Brook (the fancy suburb of Birmingham) than in the fancy Austin hill neighborhoods.
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Austin got a head start on becoming a tech startup hub after the Bay Area boomed in the aughts. I believe Austin is third behind the Bay Area and NYC in the amount of venture capital flowing to companies based there. Around the same time that startups started to get hot there, big tech decided to make Austin the back office to Silicon Valley. Apple, Facebook, and Google all established a large presence there within the past decade.
Well, I guess I'll say it again...

$$$$$$$$


Austin:
  • Big oil $$$$ from Houston and tech $$$$ from Dallas is #1 reason
  • "Business-friendly" state
  • Long a "tech" location (IBM, Tracor, Texas Instruments, Dell all between the 1970s and 1980s; Samsung and Apple in the 90s)
  • Attractive location for young workers (college town... UT main there and TAMU nearby, indie vibe, liberal for Texas, cheap 20 years ago, natural surroundings)

Austin has been "tech" since the 1960s and 70s when IBM and Texas Instruments established operations there to build typewriters, word processors, PCs, microprocessors, and semiconductors. Add in big Houston and Dallas money over the past 40 years, and there ya go.
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  #98  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 6:12 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is online now
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
Well, I guess I'll say it again...

$$$$$$$$


Austin:
  • Big oil $$$$ from Houston and tech $$$$ from Dallas is #1 reason
  • "Business-friendly" state
  • Long a "tech" location (IBM, Tracor, Texas Instruments, Dell all between the 1970s and 1980s; Samsung and Apple in the 90s)
  • Attractive location for young workers (college town... UT main there and TAMU nearby, indie vibe, liberal for Texas, cheap 20 years ago, natural surroundings)

Austin has been "tech" since the 1960s and 70s when IBM and Texas Instruments established operations there to build typewriters, word processors, PCs, microprocessors, and semiconductors. Add in big Houston and Dallas money over the past 40 years, and there ya go.
I don't know if oil money really set Austin apart from other cities in its category (such as Nashville, Columbus, Charlotte, Memphis, Birmingham, Raleigh). I think UT Austin and SXSW had way more to do with its recent success.
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  #99  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 6:12 PM
DCReid DCReid is online now
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
Well, I guess I'll say it again...

$$$$$$$$


Austin:
  • Big oil $$$$ from Houston and tech $$$$ from Dallas is #1 reason
  • "Business-friendly" state
  • Long a "tech" location (IBM, Tracor, Texas Instruments, Dell all between the 1970s and 1980s; Samsung and Apple in the 90s)
  • Attractive location for young workers (college town... UT main there and TAMU nearby, indie vibe, liberal for Texas, cheap 20 years ago, natural surroundings)

Austin has been "tech" since the 1960s and 70s when IBM and Texas Instruments established operations there to build typewriters, word processors, PCs, microprocessors, and semiconductors. Add in big Houston and Dallas money over the past 40 years, and there ya go.
Sounds about right - especially for the tech part. Tech has had an outsized influence on Austin given its size. I remember in the 1980s reading about how the metro had just gone over 1 million and Dell employed 20000 people there. Dell was one of the top 3 predominate tech companies then, sort of as prominent as Apple is now. Now it has a critical mass of tech, and combined with being cheaper than the coasts, and negative rap California is getting, it is drawing those businesses away. Of course, Austin is not the only metro with explosive growth over 30 years - Phoenix comes to mind but Columbus Ohio is even growing much than one would expect, but Austin is getting a lot of publicity partly due to the political divide encompassing the most powerful 'blue' state and 'red' state.
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  #100  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2021, 6:20 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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I think everyone understands that Austin has been big in tech for a long time. I think the confusion is why this is the case. Why did Austin become big in the scene even in the early days of the computer? It's definitely an outlier, and I would say its the only significant tech hub off of the coasts.

I think because it's the state capital of a very populous Texas also plays a part into its success to draw from itself and its own talent pool, but would guess that the university there might have been some sort of pioneer in the industry. Nothing other than that makes huge sense, considering no other tech hub is in any way related to being in proximity of an Oil Industry based city.

Also, Austin was never a large city where tech started to incubate- it seems like it was an expansion location for most companies rather than the place that hatched the actual innovation. The major innovation has almost always come from SF and the Bay Area, and even though there is some difficulty there now, I don't see that changing long term.

My personal opinion is that Austin now provides a pool of talent in the industry at a critical mass to attract companies to move ops there, because it's a cheap alternative to San Francisco, The Bay or New York. This potentially means it could be replicated anywhere (ops), but traditional innovation cores are likely to remain the hotbeds of new ideas.
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