City Revival Thread

[eschaton]

Honestly Puerto Rico being a "demographic nightmare" in terms of an aging population and few children is a point in favor of in-migration. It's quite common that neighborhoods with a lot of elderly residents gentrify. After all, lots of real estate is becoming available as old people die off/move into nursing homes, and community resistance to gentrification is less because no one is really getting displaced.

Old San Juan is a gem...I'd move there if I had the money. Though it's been taken over by Airbnb rentals. In general though I'd guess more mainlanders would be drawn to living in isolated houses in the jungle/by the beach, because all over the Caribbean expats seem to prefer that to "in-town" living.

[Crawford]

I would definitely consider a place in PR if it achieved statehood. Short/cheap flight, and great scenery.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by benp

It is part of the US - what's to stop anyone from moving there today?

Because it's not a state. That has a host of ramifications, from school quality, to hospital quality, to law enforcement.

[edale]

Old San Juan is amazing, but there are other cool areas of the city too. It sounds like some people think the whole city is a slum or something.

Condado is dominated by hotels and high rise housing, lots of shops and restaurants and nightlife. Pretty vibrant at street level, and fairly wealthy (for PR at least).

https://www.google.com/maps/@18.4568...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@18.4551...7i13312!8i6656

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by edale

Old San Juan is amazing, but there are other cool areas of the city too. It sounds like some people think the whole city is a slum or something.

Condado is dominated by hotels and high rise housing, lots of shops and restaurants and nightlife. Pretty vibrant at street level, and fairly wealthy (for PR at least).

https://www.google.com/maps/@18.4568...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@18.4551...7i13312!8i6656

The inner parts of Ponce look incredible as well.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Honestly Puerto Rico being a "demographic nightmare" in terms of an aging population and few children is a point in favor of in-migration. It's quite common that neighborhoods with a lot of elderly residents gentrify. After all, lots of real estate is becoming available as old people die off/move into nursing homes, and community resistance to gentrification is less because no one is really getting displaced.

It's not working very well in Detroit city proper. For some reason, people don't like to move to neighbourhoods that seem to have been evacuated in a rush.

Originally Posted by eschaton

...I'd move there if I had the money. Though it's been taken over by Airbnb rentals. In general though I'd guess more mainlanders would be drawn to living in isolated houses in the jungle/by the beach, because all over the Caribbean expats seem to prefer that to "in-town" living.

Genoa is a gem, with a much better and functional economy and that didn't stop it to be losing population since the 1970's. Granted nothing remotely closely of the tragedy faced by San Juan.

The thing is mainlanders buying big houses in the jungle would be counted on few thousands, not 200,000 new arrivals/decade, the number necessary to stop the island population of keep falling.

Originally Posted by edale

Old San Juan is amazing, but there are other cool areas of the city too. It sounds like some people think the whole city is a slum or something.

Condado is dominated by hotels and high rise housing, lots of shops and restaurants and nightlife. Pretty vibrant at street level, and fairly wealthy (for PR at least).

https://www.google.com/maps/@18.4568...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@18.4551...7i13312!8i6656

I know SSP has this extremely US-centric view of the world, but those street shots are extremely ordinary all over Latin America. Nothing special about them.

San Juan is a decent city, so as literally hundreds of cities in the continent.

[jd3189]

Yeah, this is probably the most mentioning I’ve seen of Puerto Rico in this forum. And I also agree that many Latin American/ Caribbean cities have good urban bones compared to most of the US. São Paulo, Rio, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Puebla, Port au Prince, Havana, San Juan, etc may look ghetto and “third world” compared to their US and Canadian counterparts but most of them are worthy of being among the upper tier club with NYC, LA, Chicago, SF, Montreal, Toronto, Boston and Philly.

[craigs]

One of the biggest changes that would come to Puerto Rico with statehood would be public investment. If they had two Senators and some Representatives in DC like the rest of the states, they would have access to the gravy train which they simply do not have today. Also, FEMA would feel the political pressure to assist in actually rebuilding infrastructure after devastating hurricanes.

[Crawford]

I still don't know what Detroit has to do with Puerto Rico. They could hardly be more different. Puerto Rico's appeal would obviously be analogous to Hawaii and Florida, not the industrial Midwest.

Also, if Puerto Rico achieved Detroit-level of prosperity, it would be a miracle. Detroit is probably one of the 40 or so largest metropolitan economies on the planet, and has higher median household wealth than all but a handful of non-U.S. metros. Despite all its issues in the city proper, it remains the undisputed global auto hegemon, with the bulk of engineering and design talent for most multinational auto firms. Yes, the metro has shitty urban form but that has nothing to do with anything.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

It's not working very well in Detroit city proper. For some reason, people don't like to move to neighbourhoods that seem to have been evacuated in a rush.

I’m not sure why you keep mentioning Detroit in comparison to Puerto Rico. Really bizarre.

And you’d be very surprised. Since many neighborhoods in the city that were hammered are now seeing huge waves of new residents and investment of which they haven’t seen in likely 60 or so years. So I don’t think you know what’s going on to say this.

Detroit is a rich US major metropolitan region comparable to other US cities that went through the whole white flight and now revitalization process.

Puerto Rico is pretty undeveloped, historically nothing like the rest of the US and has no real economy to speak of and just got mostly devastated by the hurricane a few years ago. So there is zero comparison to Detroit to make.

[Qubert]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

Within the US, there is actually nothing else like Miami. Nowhere else has its deep tropical climate, which is the reason it exists today. It's economy is not diverse by comparison, but still- I don't see a metro of 6 million just saying ''Screw it, we'll move to Jacksonville''.

Miami is a hub of foreign direct investment for the wealthy/industrious of Latin America. Whenever the military junta or leftist firebrand sweeps into power in a latin american country the elite always send their money to Miami. They're not going to let their money, quite literally, sink into the ocean.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I still don't know what Detroit has to do with Puerto Rico. They could hardly be more different. Puerto Rico's appeal would obviously be analogous to Hawaii and Florida, not the industrial Midwest.

Also, if Puerto Rico achieved Detroit-level of prosperity, it would be a miracle. Detroit is probably one of the 40 or so largest metropolitan economies on the planet, and has higher median household wealth than all but a handful of non-U.S. metros. Despite all its issues in the city proper, it remains the undisputed global auto hegemon, with the bulk of engineering and design talent for most multinational auto firms. Yes, the metro has shitty urban form but that has nothing to do with anything.

I'm not comparing Detroit to Puerto Rico. I know perfectly Detroit MSA GDP per capita is on US average. I actually have a thread here with world's metropolitan GDP and Detroit is high above.

What I'm comparing Detroit's population decline with Puerto Rico's population decline (-3% and -16% respectively) to illustrate the sheer magnitude of the island's population loss and the challenges they're facing.

Originally Posted by The North One

I’m not sure why you keep mentioning Detroit in comparison to Puerto Rico. Really bizarre.

And you’d be very surprised. Since many neighborhoods in the city that were hammered are now seeing huge waves of new residents and investment of which they haven’t seen in likely 60 or so years. So I don’t think you know what’s going on to say this.

Detroit is a rich US major metropolitan region comparable to other US cities that went through the whole white flight and now revitalization process.

Puerto Rico is pretty undeveloped, historically nothing like the rest of the US and has no real economy to speak of and just got mostly devastated by the hurricane a few years ago. So there is zero comparison to Detroit to make.

The same above. And about Puerto Rico's economic problems, few posts back I called it completely dysfunctional and artificial, kept by federal welfare and remittances.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

yes. i was just clarifying that lake levels have nothing to do with sea-level because we had someone on this very forum who thought that global sea level rise would mean that chicago and toronto and detroit would be underwater just like many of the coastal cities.

That's not what I was saying. The point I was making is that releasing water into the global water system via the melting of polar ice caps would translate into higher water levels in the Great Lakes.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Wrong. No other US state or metro area or anywhere in the globe experienced such drop in the population. Puerto Rico went from 3.725 million (2010) to 3.193 million (2019) and San Juan MSA from 2.350 million to 2.023 million. -16% and -16% respectively. Nothing to do with rural emigration as you are claiming.

Again, no MSA or state in the US has ever registered something close to it any time in history. Detroit MSA, between 2000-2010, with the 2008 crisis, fell -3.3% (5 times smaller than PR or SJ), which it was worse decade history, beating the horrible 1970's and 1980's.

Because of a natural disaster. You apparently missed that part.

I'm skeptical that Puerto Rico will explode in population with statehood, though. It would probably stabilize, but there isn't a lot of room on the island for growth as it is. The island also needs substantial infrastructure upgrades to support a huge influx of people. If you want to compare it to Detroit, the Detroit area has the infrastructure to immediately absorb pretty much everybody in Puerto Rico tomorrow, with ease. Puerto Rico would strain if even 1M people suddenly showed up right now.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Because of a natural disaster. You apparently missed that part.

I didn't missed anything. You wrongly assumed things are that bad because the hurricane only.

Puerto Rico population:
2000 - 3.808 million
2010 - 3.725 million
2017 - 3.411 million
2019 - 3.193 million

Births in Puerto Rico:
2000 - 59,000 (already below replacement level)
2010 - 42,000
2017 - 23,000
2019 - 20,000

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'm skeptical that Puerto Rico will explode in population with statehood, though. It would probably stabilize, but there isn't a lot of room on the island for growth as it is.

Since 2016, Puerto Rico has been registering negative natural growth (deaths minus births) and is set to lose an additional 120,000-150,000 inh. within a decade (births averaging 15,000-18,000 a year and deaths 30,000). In order to "stabilize" its population, Puerto Rico must reverse its historical immigration patterns and welcome 120,000-150,000 immigrants in the next ten years, a remarkable accomplishment for an island that has been massively exporting people since the Spanish-American War.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The island also needs substantial infrastructure upgrades to support a huge influx of people. If you want to compare it to Detroit, the Detroit area has the infrastructure to immediately absorb pretty much everybody in Puerto Rico tomorrow, with ease. Puerto Rico would strain if even 1M people suddenly showed up right now.

Given the island actually lost almost 1 million people since 2000, one could argue they can manage 1 million new residents.

I've never seen pics or articles on this specific issue, but given San Juan inner metro area (7 municipios) had dropped from 1.144 million inh. (2000) to 879,000 (2019), I imagine there are lots of vacant houses and apartaments available with all the infrastructure in place. In comparison, Detroit dropped from 951,000 to 670,000 over the same period and its urban prairies and vacant houses are one of the most documented issues on city related discussions.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The point I was making is that releasing water into the global water system via the melting of polar ice caps would translate into higher water levels in the Great Lakes.

That's simply not known at this time.

No one can say with any certainty what the prospect of global warming will mean for the great lakes. Most models predict more precipitation in the great lakes region, which would mean more water going into the lakes, and hence higher lake levels.

However most of those same models also show warming winter temperatures in the region, which would lead to less winter ice cover which could mean ever greater evaporation.

There are too many variables and unknowns in the equation to know for sure how those two opposing forces will balance out in the future. Will lake levels rise, recede, or generally stay within the range of fluctuation that they've been in for thousands of years?

Only time will tell.

[Buckeye Native 001]

I'd hope it maintains some level of consistency with moisture. I'd almost naively say more water is better than less, but how many 100-year and 500-year floods have struck areas along the Mississippi River in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri and elsewhere the past three decades?

Then again, I'm living in a part of the country that's been parched for the better part of the millennium and the prognosis is that our water supplies are going to continually get worse. The Colorado River is basically a creek/small stream in some parts and Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at critically low levels. We're not getting the snow pack and monsoon moisture we need for long term sustainability.

I know it's a fringe thought right now and hope it stays that way (so many fringe thoughts and ideas have become mainstream lately that it's getting ridiculous), but the minute we start eyeballing the Great Lakes for water is the day I leave my beloved Southwest.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Given the island actually lost almost 1 million people since 2000, one could argue they can manage 1 million new residents.

I've never seen pics or articles on this specific issue, but given San Juan inner metro area (7 municipios) had dropped from 1.144 million inh. (2000) to 879,000 (2019), I imagine there are lots of vacant houses and apartaments available with all the infrastructure in place. In comparison, Detroit dropped from 951,000 to 670,000 over the same period and its urban prairies and vacant houses are one of the most documented issues on city related discussions.

I doubt that Puerto Rico has experienced a lot of abandonment like was common in Detroit. Puerto Rico households are more likely to be multigenerational, so when people leave for the mainland there is still family left behind to occupy the family home.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I doubt that Puerto Rico has experienced a lot of abandonment like was common in Detroit. Puerto Rico households are more likely to be multigenerational, so when people leave for the mainland there is still family left behind to occupy the family home.

Right, pretty much every PR family in the U.S. has a home and/or family back in PR. Lots of people keep a homestead for retirement.

And PR is actually very densely populated. If it were a state, it would be 2nd densest state, behind only NJ.

PR population decline is probably more analogous to rural Europe, where population counts have cratered, but you rarely encounter empty homes. It's just that the same home that used to house an extended family of 12 now just has one granny, and when she passes, the relatives will keep the home for weekends/summer.

My dad grew up in a rural German household of 14. He had eight sisters, his parents, a boarder, and two grandparents. That same house now houses one person.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I doubt that Puerto Rico has experienced a lot of abandonment like was common in Detroit. Puerto Rico households are more likely to be multigenerational, so when people leave for the mainland there is still family left behind to occupy the family home.

It might be a factor. I guess we can check this on that American Fact Finder tool, but I'm not so familiar with it.

Based on Brazil, however, the number of people per household had fell from 3.9 to 3.3 between 2000 and 2010 census and it's probably be around 3.0 in 2020 (and it would be lower, without 2015-2016 crisis and Covid).

I imagine that's a trend in Puerto Rico as well, meaning decreasing numbers of multigenerational households. Due this massive outflow in a such small period, many houses/apartments might be iddle. It might resemble São Paulo Downtown back in the 1980's and 1990's, when the population dropped by 13%/decade in the region, with urban decay everywhere. Since the 2000, it rebounded and it's growing twice as fast as the city as a whole.