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  #21  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:18 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
2. Reduced demand for inner city housing, specifically in large metros. Small metro inner city housing growth is mostly based on lifestyle choice, which will continue at the same pace as before;
IMHO this is questionable, as I noted above. Very, very few professional-class workers live in the inner city primarily on the basis of commute. It's a lifestyle choice for these people - often one they grow out of once nightlife is less important and they have school age children.

It's true that COVID caused an exodus from higher-cost major urban cores. But this was not so much due to remote working - although it was a requirement. It was more because almost all the positives of urban living (access to mass transit, bars/restaurants, shopping, etc.) became essentially value-less, while having access more private indoor and outdoor space suddenly became very attractive.

All of these dynamics will likely reverse quite quickly once herd immunity is reached. City nightlife will come back in full bloom, and be a draw to the young and single. And as I noted upthread, to the degree that housing prices ease in major cities, it's probably a bonus for these cities, as more rando 22-year old middle-class college graduates will consider NYC or San Francisco over say Philly or Portland respectively.
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  #22  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:20 PM
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New York biggest banks had declared recently they don’t believe on working remotely as it’s terrible for their corporate culture.

I share their opinions and I hope everybody to be back working. New York and other metropolises will survive and for one thing, prices might become more reasonable.
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  #23  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:30 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere View Post
Another impact:

Increased personal travel and recreation, and likely increased interest in vacation properties close to the city.

People's abilities to work remote means I can see people taking a "working holiday" where they rent a place for a month somewhere and work a few of the weeks from the location.

I know Toronto is already seeing this, with many people who own cottages and vacation properties travelling out on a thursday and working friday there before enjoying the property over the weekend.
So this reminded me. The true victim of more remote work is likely to be tourism. It is hard for me to see how business travel returns to pre-pandemic levels. And fewer people traveling for business means leisure travel, particularly the cost of flying, will get a lot more expensive. We'll almost certainly lose a few airlines and hotel brands in the U.S. over the next couple of years.
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  #24  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:35 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
New York biggest banks had declared recently they don’t believe on working remotely as it’s terrible for their corporate culture.

I share their opinions and I hope everybody to be back working. New York and other metropolises will survive and for one thing, prices might become more reasonable.


I agree. Remote working may be a problem for typical U.S. cities like Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc., but it is not an issue for NY, where financial services firms (and others) are lining up for new space,
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  #25  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:47 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by JMKeynes View Post


I agree. Remote working may be a problem for typical U.S. cities like Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte, etc., but it is not an issue for NY, where financial services firms (and others) are lining up for new space,
Sounds like a bunch of wishful thinking.

And your odd delusion that somehow New York will return to in-person work while all of those "other" cities will suffer from work-from-home just reeks of either hometown boosterism or utter denial.

As I expected in my first post of this thread, the denial around here is almost comical. You guys have no idea just how much cities that have spent over a century dependent on bringing hundreds of thousands/millions of people downtown every weekday are fucked right now

If anything, "typical" cities as you call them (of which Chicago is very much NOT because it also depends on a huge downtown workforce) are ones that do not depend so strongly on a centralized workforce. I actually think that they are in a better position
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  #26  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:52 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I'm speaking from a bit of perspective. I worked for a company that was/is one of the largest holders of office space in Manhattan. About 6-7 years ago the company decided to reduce its footprint in Manhattan to cut costs. The company consolidated most of its NYC office space into one of the most expensive buildings in the city, but cut its total Manhattan footprint in half. The company did this because so many workers were doing hybrid work from home schedules even back then that keeping so much space was not necessary.
Well, I'm speaking from a "bit of a perspective" too.

The perspective that, as mentioned in the article, 90% of workers are still working from home. This isn't one company reducing its footprint: this is a seismic shift occurring due to a technology change.
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  #27  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:56 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Some of the city boosters here seem to be in denial. Many have been the most pro-shutdown ("stop whining and work from home, to hell with the livelihoods we've just damaged!") types. But it looks more and more like you want to have your cake and eat it too. The overly rigid policies and fears that many in your corner have espoused have had.....lets just say......consequences:





https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/29/n...-pandemic.html
It's insane. My extremely pro-lockdown classmates in my urban planning classes are completely silent on this issue. Why? Well, because they probably don't want to believe their suggestive lockdowns are bad and because they are utterly obsessed with race right now. I have three classes right now and all three have a studio aspect where we are working on "equity" plans. So no time to care about rich people downtown!

However, these silly kids don't realize that at least in Chicago, two wards in the downtown area produce 40% of property tax revenue and that with a plummeting downtown workforce, our CTA and METRA will collapse in the long term.

But hey, PROGRESS!
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  #28  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:57 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Well, I'm speaking from a "bit of a perspective" too.

The perspective that, as mentioned in the article, 90% of workers are still working from home. This isn't one company reducing its footprint: this is a seismic shift occurring due to a technology change.
90% of workers are working at home because we're in the middle of a pandemic, lol. That's not perspective. Most people who are working at home will not be 100% wfh when this is over, as was stated by the COOs in the article.
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  #29  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 6:59 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
It's insane. My extremely pro-lockdown classmates in my urban planning classes are completely silent on this issue. Why? Well, because they probably don't want to believe their suggestive lockdowns are bad and because they are utterly obsessed with race right now. I have three classes right now and all three have a studio aspect where we are working on "equity" plans. So no time to care about rich people downtown!

However, these silly kids don't realize that at least in Chicago, two wards in the downtown area produce 40% of property tax revenue and that with a plummeting downtown workforce, our CTA and METRA will collapse in the long term.

But hey, PROGRESS!
^ In Chicago I saw that they are seriously discussing offering free service on the CTA/Metra/Pace over the next few months to spur more people to use transit.

.......except that.........

NOBODY GOES TO THEIR JOBS ANY MORE!!!!

(except in New York, according to JMKeynes, which apparently is doing AMAZING right now, like at 99% capacity!)
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  #30  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:00 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
90% of workers are working at home because we're in the middle of a pandemic, lol. That's not perspective. Most people who are working at home will not be 100% wfh when this is over, as was stated by the COOs in the article.
I like to work with real numbers, you see.

Not "jee whiz it's all gonna be okay because I REALLLLLLY FEEEEL like it's gonna be fine"
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  #31  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:02 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I like to work with real numbers, you see.

Not "jee whiz it's all gonna be okay because I REALLLLLLY FEEEEL like it's gonna be fine"
Serious question: Do you have a personality disorder? Because you seem to go manic whenever someone gives you an opinion that doesn't align with your ideology. You're derailing your own thread.
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  #32  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:04 PM
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At this point, COVID isn't really my main worry about being in the city. Wear a mask and you're fine.

The huge uptick in violence though, this is something a mask can't solve. It is countrywide and it can't be solely blamed on COVID, its cultural. I've said it a bunch of times, but people will absolutely abandon cities if they become too risky to be in, it happened before and will happen again. Just a matter of timing.
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  #33  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:16 PM
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Of course Manhattan and other downtowns will never be the same. Things are always changing. You just have to learn to adapt.

In SF, Facebook is going to reopen at 10% in May, then 50% by September, as long as everything goes well. There's a subset that will be allowed to work remotely permanently, and they can even relocate, but their compensation will be adjusted accordingly. Wells Fargo isn't going to reopen until September as well. Peak population during work hours may eventually get 90%(?) perhaps back to the original baseline, but for the time being, this is the new normal. Office space will likely consolidate like Salesforce is doing, and while others may eventually come in to take those spaces, the pandora's box of remote work has now been opened, and as a result, CBDs, and even suburban offices, are likely to be less busy, even if vacancy is at baseline.

I'm not buying that Manhattan is unique in this regard, as they themselves, have been a big benefactor of the tech boom, and remote work culture.

Quote:
JPMorgan started marketing 700,000 square feet of office space in lower Manhattan earlier this year. That is the largest block of space available for sublease in Manhattan, according to real-estate services firm Savills Inc.

PricewaterhouseCoopers and Yelp Inc. have also listed space in New York for sublease, brokers say.

Salesforce has listed space for rent in one of its San Francisco office buildings. Uber Technologies Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. are also adding to sublease availability in that city, though the companies have indicated that decision was unrelated to work-from-home policies, say people familiar with the matter.

...

Big financial companies and law firms, both popular tenants because they are willing to pay high rents, are also ditching office space, brokers say. And the suburbs aren't immune either. A number of companies are looking to get rid of call centers and other back-office facilities in cheap locations, Mr. Ryan said.

In the Chicago suburbs, healthcare provider AMITA Health recently put up its headquarters for sublease. Like Dropbox, the company surveyed its employees and found that many liked working from home, said the company's chief operating officer, Thor Thordarson. "Our associates' desire to work remotely and our ability to provide alternate work environments, in turn, requires less physical office space," he said.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...h-office-space
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  #34  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
It's insane. My extremely pro-lockdown classmates in my urban planning classes are completely silent on this issue. Why? Well, because they probably don't want to believe their suggestive lockdowns are bad and because they are utterly obsessed with race right now. I have three classes right now and all three have a studio aspect where we are working on "equity" plans. So no time to care about rich people downtown!

However, these silly kids don't realize that at least in Chicago, two wards in the downtown area produce 40% of property tax revenue and that with a plummeting downtown workforce, our CTA and METRA will collapse in the long term.

But hey, PROGRESS!
Lockdowns are not responsible for remote work. Companies sent their people home well-before they were required to.
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  #35  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:19 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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So this reminded me. The true victim of more remote work is likely to be tourism. It is hard for me to see how business travel returns to pre-pandemic levels. And fewer people traveling for business means leisure travel, particularly the cost of flying, will get a lot more expensive. We'll almost certainly lose a few airlines and hotel brands in the U.S. over the next couple of years.
This is probably true, but I would expect overall this would impact both smaller cities and suburban hotel markets more strongly than major cities. I mean, people certainly do stay in hotels in NYC for work-related reasons, but overall I'd expect it's a much smaller percentage than those who stay in hotels in suburban New Jersey (or Kansas City).

Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
As I expected in my first post of this thread, the denial around here is almost comical. You guys have no idea just how much cities that have spent over a century dependent on bringing hundreds of thousands/millions of people downtown every weekday are fucked right now

If anything, "typical" cities as you call them (of which Chicago is very much NOT because it also depends on a huge downtown workforce) are ones that do not depend so strongly on a centralized workforce. I actually think that they are in a better position

I'm not sure I get this. NYC and Chicago are atypical because they have a large middle-to-upper class residential population within the urban core. Most "typical" cities have nothing similar to this, and are actually much, much more reliant upon downtown office commuters (unless they're a sun-belt city which includes a broad swathe of traditional suburbia).
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  #36  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:20 PM
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FWIW, our company is going back to almost full in-office capacity at the end of April. . . personally I don't think this pandemic work-from-home trend is a long term phenomenon, but time will tell. . .

. . .
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  #37  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:22 PM
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FWIW, our company is going back to almost full in-office capacity at the end of April. . . personally I don't think this pandemic work-from-home trend is a long term phenomenon, but time will tell. . .

. . .
Yes, and UChicago recently announced that it will be fully open in the fall, as I'm sure most colleges have announced or will imminently. (though of course, UChicago has long been open for people to go to labs. Our lab recently was approved to increase from a 2-person to 4-person max occupancy).
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  #38  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:27 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post

If anything, "typical" cities as you call them (of which Chicago is very much NOT because it also depends on a huge downtown workforce) are ones that do not depend so strongly on a centralized workforce. I actually think that they are in a better position
Agreed. Right now, or at least this past year, places like New York, Chicago, San Francisco and Boston struck me as less appealing as Dallas or Phoenix since they are tourist dependent and highly centralized where as downtown here in Houston became a ghost town but few noticed. These cities will come back because WFH is not a replacement for physical offices and never will be. More of an augment and a means to expand talent pool nationally and globally. I worked from home for 10 years and am interviewing with two jobs right now that are remote and am not thrilled about it.
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  #39  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:31 PM
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I mean, looking at remote work from an employer perspective for a second (hard to do for me, since I work for a union) my understanding is there's absolutely been a major drop in productivity as a result of a shift to working from home. To some degree this is probably parents who have to somehow balance working full time with online schooling. To some degree it's probably just that working from home has more general distractions. But employers have absolutely lost revenue from the shift to remote work.

The question for all businesses is really whether the potential savings from a shift to remote working in terms of rent/utilities are more than the loss in productivity due to people working from home. I would guess the calculation varies considerably depending upon the firm or the industry, but most employers worried about their employees "slacking off" when the boss isn't continually monitoring will likely want to return to in-person work.
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  #40  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2021, 7:36 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Sounds like a bunch of wishful thinking.

And your odd delusion that somehow New York will return to in-person work while all of those "other" cities will suffer from work-from-home just reeks of either hometown boosterism or utter denial.

As I expected in my first post of this thread, the denial around here is almost comical. You guys have no idea just how much cities that have spent over a century dependent on bringing hundreds of thousands/millions of people downtown every weekday are fucked right now

If anything, "typical" cities as you call them (of which Chicago is very much NOT because it also depends on a huge downtown workforce) are ones that do not depend so strongly on a centralized workforce. I actually think that they are in a better position

I think remote work will be beneficial to places with nasty traffic.
Traffic is the thing most people hate about LA.
Kill your commute, it actually helps alot of people.

A friend moved to LA from Chicago suburbs and moved back because of the freeways to her job.
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