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Originally Posted by thegoatman
Honestly we can defend this all we want, but the only thing that will change the media narrative of a corporate chicago exodus is multiple big name companies relocating here.
Kelloggs is a good one but it was watered down by the fact that only one of its sectors was moving to Chicago. We need a fortune 100 company from a different state to relocate their whole company here. Think CVS, American Airlines, Proctor and Gamble, Berkshire, Lowes, Dell, etc. Guys I know we think its cool that some small tech start up relocated here but in reality most dont care, we need the big names.
This was something Rahm excelled in. Yeah he wasn't perfect but he prioritized bringing businesses to Chicago. We need that energy with the current leadership. Multiple fortune 500 companies leaving simply isn't a good look.
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Yes, it sucks and it's symbolic but also remember (as you allude to) that Chicago actually got numerous large companies to relocate in the last decade plus such as ADM ($85B+ company, relocated to Chicago in 2013) and ConAgra ($11B+ company, relocated in 2015 to Chicago). I'd prefer Boeing wouldn't move their symbolic HQ but from a business standpoint unfortunately it makes sense (737 MAX issues and they are trying to expand way more to military/government). Cat was never in the city and it was only in the Chicago area for about 5 or less years.
Citadel hurts, but they aren't actually closing up their Chicago office contrary to stupid, popular belief. Same as Boeing. Not sure about Cat - they might actually move most of their jobs. The only company legitimately just closing up shop (who isn't even HQ'd here) is Tyson who is also moving as many people from South Dakota to Arkansas as they are from Chicago/Downers Grove. The fact that people think that when a company moves their HQ it automatically means that they're closing up shop in the origin city shows a disconnect in peoples' understanding of modern HQ.
The unit that Kellogg is moving to Chicago for HQ does more revenue per year than Citadel for the record, and again Citadel is not actually closing up shop in Chicago. The only location actively recruiting for more jobs right now than Chicago for Citadel is NYC.
I agree it would be NICE to get another Fortune 100 HQ but this is just not the end all be all of literally anything. Chicago has the 2nd most F500 HQ of any metro area in the US. Areas like Los Angeles and Boston lag WAY behind Chicago and even areas like Minneapolis in terms F500 HQ, but nobody questions their business and economic prowess. Only someone who thinks that this is the only thing that matters would question it - and a person like that shouldn't be listened to when it comes to economic/business development if that's their main indicator of economic status.
Now let's talk about something like GDP for the entire state. The increase of the entire US from Q2 2020 to Q2 2022 was 14.48%. Illinois sits at 14.85% so it's doing slightly above the US average. Could be better, and could be worse. Actually, Illinois ranked 18th highest increase for GDP in this period of time even above states like California, Arizona, Washington, TEXAS, etc. Of course, there was a dip because of COVID in some of the states, so Illinois doesn't do as well from 2019 to 2022 because of it. However, given the rate of change recently of the GDP, it should look better in a few quarters. Here is Q2 2022 vs. Q2 2020 by state for GDP
Another interesting thing to look at is business income taxes collected for the state. I believe business income tax rose in mid 2017 in Illinois, but if we look at a little bit say July + August so far, adjusted to August 2022 dollars for inflation, we have this:
2022: $369.1M
2021: $297.8M
2020: $90.1M
2019: $266.6M
2018: $308.5M
2017: $220.8M
Since the business income taxes are presumably the same between these periods 2018 and 2022 for example, you can see even then there's a nearly 20% increase in taxes collected at the same rates between July and August 2022 vs. same months for 2018. This is adjusted for inflation to August 2022 again.
It's never a good idea to be complacent but the sky is not falling in the city/area/state as much as some people like to believe right now. Even with those companies moving HQ, there is some fairly decent momentum right now.
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This will be a WIP especially because some states have different fiscal years, and some report differently (i.e gross only vs. gross and net). But here's some I could find for comparing Jul+Aug 2022 vs 2021..
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