America's population will peak at 364 million in 42 years

[liat91]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dai...inking-10.html

This goes along with the prediction of the world topping out at 9.7 billion. Although other studies actually claim 8.7 billion, which assumes Africa won’t continue to grow at its current pace long term. The 9.7 billion number does have Africa constituting almost half of humanity by 2100.

I’m assuming that most of the US growth, which has been projected to hit almost half a billion is somewhat anemic in this projection, will be in the South. Esp. Florida and Texas.

[Yuri]

The US natural growth has dropped from 1.9 million to 900,000 in merely 13 years. The number of births keeps falling quickly (it's now at 3.7 million) while deaths is always increasing. By 2030, when baby boomers will start dying off, the US will have over 4 million deaths yearly to run a negative natural growth.

Immigration is now a very toxic political issue, and the current 1 million/year will be enough to keep population stagnant only.

Demographics are deteriorating much quicker than expected and even those 364 million might become a bit too ambitious.

[MolsonExport]

Nigeria will eventually be home to more people than China

Wow.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

The US natural growth has dropped from 1.9 million to 900,000 in merely 13 years. The number of births keeps falling quickly (it's now at 3.7 million) while deaths is always increasing. By 2030, when baby boomers will start dying off, the US will have over 4 million deaths yearly to run a negative natural growth.

Immigration is now a very toxic political issue, and the current 1 million/year will be enough to keep population stagnant only.

Demographics are deteriorating much quicker than expected and even those 364 million might become a bit too ambitious.

the current cascading instability is going to put a clamp on natural increase even more than the recession.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

the current cascading instability is going to put a clamp on natural increase even more than the recession.

For the past 5ish years I've jokingly said I don't want to bring kids into a world with such a bleak future. For the first time I 100% mean it. The downward trend of the current world order is undeniable, until we have a better idea of what will replace it I'm in no rush to have a kid. I see my 3 year old niece and 1 year old nephew and genuinely worry about their future. Luckily they are European which offers a tiny bit more of a safety net, but not much.

[JManc]

Nigeria is a demographic time bomb.

[MolsonExport]

The world has rarely been without war, famine or other threats, yet people, like myself, continue to have children. Despite the dark clouds of overpopulation, resource shortages, climate change, and rising assholism, there are also reasons to hope that the future will be brighter for many people.

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by JManc

Nigeria is a demographic time bomb.

Honestly imagining Nigeria as having that many people crammed into it with such deplorable conditions is nightmare inducing.

[Zapatan]

Predicting only means so much,

Wikipedia projects the US to have over 400 million by that point, not sure which is more accurate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projec...ulation_growth

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

the current cascading instability is going to put a clamp on natural increase even more than the recession.

Exactly. The US had already reached an all-time low fertility rate 1.70 in 2019, from a 2.00 back in 2009. 2020 will probably see the US getting into below 1.7 or just 0.15 above the low-fertility textbook Germany. Economic downturn usually means less people starting families.

This will depress even further the number of births, anticipating the negative natural growth in 15-20 years. I wouldn't be surprised if it happens before 2030, something imaginable few years ago.

And the 2030's-2050's will be dramatic as it will be the decades baby-boomers will die at a rate of 4 million/year. Much above the 3.7 million births of today and those will be much lower in the future as the overall population ages.

Originally Posted by Zapatan

Predicting only means so much,

Wikipedia projects the US to have over 400 million by that point, not sure which is more accurate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projec...ulation_growth

Population forecasts are updated over time and that one is old news. Not even over-optimistic models will give you that number by 2100.

[10023]

Originally Posted by JManc

Nigeria is a demographic time bomb.

Most of equatorial Africa is a demographic time bomb.

And where is Egypt going to put another 100 million people? Will the Nile even reach the Mediterranean?

[SFBruin]

How would Nigeria's population density compare to Bangladesh's?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by 10023

Most of equatorial Africa is a demographic time bomb.

And where is Egypt going to put another 100 million people? Will the Nile even reach the Mediterranean?

I was checking the latest figures from Egypt, and fortunately the number of births started to decline there after the scary surge from 1.9 million in 2007 to 2.7 million in 2014. In 2019, it was 2.3 million for 570,000 deaths.

If things keep evolving this way, I don't think they will add another 100 million in the next 80 years.

Originally Posted by SFBruin

How would Nigeria's population density compare to Bangladesh's?

218 inh./km² for Nigeria, 1,106 inh./km² for Bangladesh. For comparison, Atlanta urban area is at 600 inh./km²...

[10023]

Originally Posted by SFBruin

How would Nigeria's population density compare to Bangladesh's?

The comparison would be pretty meaningless. Population isn’t evenly distributed within the land masses of either country. And they don’t have the same access to water, etc.

[SIGSEGV]

I'm highly dubious of population estimates since there is political pressure to inflate them (for things like pensions, etc.).

[Yuri]

Coincidentally, today BBC News had this article in the front page:

Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born
Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century

[JManc]

Originally Posted by 10023

Most of equatorial Africa is a demographic time bomb.

And where is Egypt going to put another 100 million people? Will the Nile even reach the Mediterranean?

Yup and developmentally, they are behind places like India and China when they were at their poorest. Not a good scenario.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Coincidentally, today BBC News had this article in the front page:

Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born
Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century

I came here to post just that!

The key takeaway here being that the global population is projected to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100 (a net gain of only 1 billion from today). Most countries will lose population except for those in Africa. But even there the growth is going to taper off as they urbanize and develop, with the resultant drop in fertility rates.

[Crawford]

We're gonna have a population bomb, all right. We'll eventually have global population decline, with a few rich nations sucking up the remaining people.

If Islam and fundamentalist Christianity just slightly modernize, knock a billion or two off the estimates. Nigeria is booming because you have Muslims and fundamentalist Christians trying to out-reproduce each other.

[chris08876]

I thought it was going to reach 400 million by than.

The tides have turned.

Well, honestly, in 42 years, if this climate change stuff isn't resolved, there will be a lot of peaking, and than a horrific trough for several places.

Interestingly enough... many of the places that will see intense growth of an unparalleled nature, will also be the worse off. Lots of death and suffering to come, so 42 years from now might suck! Be glad were enjoying now.

Nigeria will be a disaster. Some areas will be too hot for people to live the way things are going.

So... with that said, maybe a lower population is ideal!