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  #21  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2012, 6:05 PM
Halifax Hillbilly Halifax Hillbilly is offline
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Originally Posted by Josh M View Post
St John's not Saint John
That's especially embarassing, since I live in Saint John NB.

Really though, growth in the Maritimes is good for Halifax. Even if the real growth rate in Halifax is just under 5% that's still reasonable, if unspectacular.
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  #22  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2012, 8:19 PM
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Fixating on the growth figures alone is also a bit misleading. Moncton, Fredericton and Charlottetown are all way smaller. Doesn't take a huge number of people to give them a healthy 8-9%. Halifax's 4.7 still meant an extra 18,000 people in the unadjusted numbers, more than anywhere else.
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  #23  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2012, 9:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Wishblade View Post
I'd say in reality Halifax is probably growing around 8%. Atleast thats what prior census predictions would indicate.
This is what I would say as well, and in future years we could see it increase to over 10%. By sometime in 2013 we will likely be approaching 425,000 easily.
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  #24  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2012, 5:48 AM
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Originally Posted by q12 View Post
Census results should be wake-up call
February 11, 2012 - 4:34am BY MARILLA STEPHENSON
http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion...d-be-wake-call

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Halifax’s population, at 390,000 people, still makes the city by far the largest capital region among the four Atlantic provinces, and it had the greatest growth in terms of number of people who moved here, with 18,000 more people moving to Halifax since 2006.

But the rate of growth in Halifax, at 4.7 per cent, is the second-smallest among all the Atlantic region cities. New Brunswick cities are booming in comparison. Moncton is up 9.7 per cent, Fredericton 9.3 per cent, St. John’s 8.8 per cent and even tiny Charlottetown grew at 8.7 per cent.

Only Saint John, at 4.4 per cent, was in a similar position to Halifax, while the news in Cape Breton is dismal, to say the least.

So, if things are so hot in the cities, why are the cities in other Atlantic provinces managing to expand at a rate that is mostly double the rate experienced in Halifax?

Well maybe it has something to do with undercounts that haven't been adjusted. Maybe people in New Brunswick have a lot more time on their hands to fill out the census. These absolute numbers which stats canada has said need to be adjusted, will not give the true growth rate until they are adjusted. It'a starting to get annoying.
One thing that I find very odd is that the employment numbers for the Halifax CMA have increased significantly since 2006; from 199.5K in 2006 to 223.9 K in 2011. That is a 12.2% increase for the Halifax CMA whereas the Moncton employment numbers went from 66.5K in 2006 to 71.4K in 2011, which is a 7.4% increase. Here are links to the employment numbers:
2006 employment numbers - http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/labor70a-eng.htm
2011 employment numbers - http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/labor35-eng.htm

The labour force has also increased significantly more in the Halifax CMA than Moncton; for the Halifax CMA the labour force went from 212.9K in 2006 (http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/labr87a-eng.htm) to 238.3K in 2011 (http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/labor35-eng.htm) which is a 11.9% increase between 2006 and 2011. On the other hand, Moncton went from 70.9K in 2006 to 77.2K in 2011, which is a 8.9% increase.

Either the labour data for the past 5 years is significantly off, or the Halifax CMA has a very high census under-count rate for 2011 (it was 2.84% in 2006 - http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...01_2_2-eng.cfm). There were some cities that had high under-count rates in 2006 of 5 - 6%, although 2.87% was the 2006 average for all CMA's. I can't think of a reason why it would be so much larger in 2011 than 2006.

Last edited by fenwick16; Feb 12, 2012 at 6:00 AM.
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  #25  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2012, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Wishblade View Post
I'd say in reality Halifax is probably growing around 8%. Atleast thats what prior census predictions would indicate..

It also appears that the CBRM is going to lose CMA status soon.
I would agree that there must be a significant undercount in the Halifax census data. Fenwicks info regarding the labour force data is quite convincing. Why would undercount be so much more of an issue in Halifax than Moncton?

It is good for the entire Maritime region though that most of our larger cities are growing at a fairly healthy pace. Moncton, Fredericton and Charlottetown are all growing at greater than the national average. Even the 4.4% increase in Saint John is gratifying. CBRM however is a major disappointment.

CBRM is not considered a CMA by StatsCan. I believe this is because the industrial Cape Breton region does not have an urban core of greater than 50,000. I do agree though that CBRM will likely be less than 100,000 by the next census.

I believe once a community is considered a CMA, this status is grandfathered and is never lost, regardless of population loss.
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Last edited by MonctonRad; Feb 12, 2012 at 1:34 PM.
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  #26  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2012, 2:47 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
I would agree that there must be a significant undercount in the Halifax census data. Fenwicks info regarding the labour force data is quite convincing. Why would undercount be so much more of an issue in Halifax than Moncton?

It is good for the entire Maritime region though that most of our larger cities are growing at a fairly healthy pace. Moncton, Fredericton and Charlottetown are all growing at greater than the national average. Even the 4.4% increase in Saint John is gratifying. CBRM however is a major disappointment.

CBRM is not considered a CMA by StatsCan. I believe this is because the industrial Cape Breton region does not have an urban core of greater than 50,000. I do agree though that CBRM will likely be less than 100,000 by the next census.

I believe once a community is considered a CMA, this status is grandfathered and is never lost, regardless of population loss.
The problems in the Sydney area have been decades in the making. The decline of steel and coal were major problems, and nothing filled the void. The provincial government pumped billions into heavy industry in the area to no avail. If anything provincial money may ultimately have made things worse, by prolonging the inevitable decline of heavy industry the fall seems to be that much worse. Sadly there seems to be no bottom for the region yet.
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  #27  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2012, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
I would agree that there must be a significant undercount in the Halifax census data. Fenwicks info regarding the labour force data is quite convincing. Why would undercount be so much more of an issue in Halifax than Moncton?
I do not know, but the 2011 estimates are now out (http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm) and there is a wide range of differences between cities. In some cities the estimates are 4% higher than the census totals, and in other cases the estimates are actually lower than the census totals.

Halifax's 2011 estimate is 408,200 and its 2011 census population count was 390,328 (~4% lower).

For St. John's the 2011 estimate is 196,200 and the 2011 census population count was slightly higher at 196,966.
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  #28  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2012, 1:43 PM
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
I do not know, but the 2011 estimates are now out (http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm) and there is a wide range of differences between cities. In some cities the estimates are 4% higher than the census totals, and in other cases the estimates are actually lower than the census totals.

Halifax's 2011 estimate is 408,200 and its 2011 census population count was 390,328 (~4% lower).

For St. John's the 2011 estimate is 196,200 and the 2011 census population count was slightly higher at 196,966.
It may be that Halifax has a large proportion of short-term residents who don't bother to fill-out census forms; for example, university/college students from other provinces and other towns within Nova Scotia, and military personal, such as in the Navy who come from outside the HRM and don't consider themselves to be permanent residents (even if, technically, they are).

When I was in my twenties, I don't remember ever filling out a census form.
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  #29  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2012, 2:52 PM
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
I do not know, but the 2011 estimates are now out (http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm) and there is a wide range of differences between cities. In some cities the estimates are 4% higher than the census totals, and in other cases the estimates are actually lower than the census totals.

Halifax's 2011 estimate is 408,200 and its 2011 census population count was 390,328 (~4% lower).

For St. John's the 2011 estimate is 196,200 and the 2011 census population count was slightly higher at 196,966.
A few interesting notes with the 2011 numbers:

Halifax jumped St. Catherines to take 12th place and Winnipeg jumped past Quebec for 7th. It's also a tight race for 10th place in the race to 500,000 between Kitchener and London. Calgary is now bigger than Ottawa too.

If you include Hamilton and Kitchener as part of the Greater Toronto Area than it really puts Halifax as the 10th largest Metropolitan area on its own in Canada.


1 Toronto 5,838,800
2 Montreal 3,908,700
3 Vancouver 2,419,700
4 Calgary 1,265,100
5 Ottawa 1,258,900
6 Edmonton 1,196,300
7 Winnipeg 762,800
8 Quebec 761,700
9 Hamilton 750,200
10 Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 498,500
11 London 496,900
12 Halifax 408,200
13 St. Catharines–Niagara 405,300

Last edited by q12; Mar 11, 2012 at 3:47 PM. Reason: Fixed Calgary now in 4th
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  #30  
Old Posted Mar 11, 2012, 8:30 PM
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Ontario's pretty different since so many cities are so close together. Halifax is the only game in town, so to speak, so nearby suburbs are unambiguous. When it comes to a metro like Kitchener-Waterloo, however, it's a bit more complicated. It's only about a 30 minute drive from Kitchener to Guelph, and Guelph is considered a separate CMA. Hamilton is basically a part of the built up Toronto region but it is an older city and it maintains an identity from a period when the two cities were effectively farther apart. Still, I don't think it feels as large or important as Quebec City even though its CMA population is similar.

St. Catharine's-Niagara is not really one city that's grown into a metropolitan area, it's another agglomeration of small towns. The scale of downtown St. Catharine's reminds me more of Moncton than Halifax. Same thing goes for Kitchener, although they have been getting a lot of development lately so maybe that has changed.

London is pretty much a standard metro and is an hour or more from other major cities, although I think the little farm towns might inflate the numbers a bit. It's not hard to imagine turning the land within a 100 km radius of Halifax into Annapolis Valley-style farmland and bumping up the rural population considerably.
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  #31  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2012, 5:33 AM
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Gotta catch up to the 'Peg.

Scooby needs an Ikea
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