Will Jagmeet Singh win the Burnaby South by-election?

Docere · #1 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 5:19 AM**

It's anybody's guess,but my prediction he comes up the middle to win.

Although the Liberals are running a Chinese candidate, the Chinese community is trending Conservative and according to Mainstreet the Conservatives have a lead among them. Singh is polling a distant third.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/11/turn...tion-pollster/

He does however he lead among those polled in English. My feeling is he wins based on low turnout and a strong NDP machine there.

In fact, it's pretty remarkable that the NDP was able to win that riding in 2015 (however narrowly) given how small-"c" conservative the Chinese community is (about 40% of the riding population).

Bcasey25raptor · #2 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 5:23 AM**

Pretty strong NDP riding so yes.

whatnext · #3 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 6:17 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Pretty strong NDP riding so yes.

Not really, Kennedy Stewart won by just 547 votes last time. It is a sad but true fact that Indo-Canadians poll lower on civic election slates in Vancouver/Burnaby when voters have a choice. There is also a strong contingent of organized and conservatively bigotted Chinese voters in Burnaby, check this out:
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/burnaby-all-ca...asty-1.4122342

Loco101 · #4 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 6:29 AM**

My guess at this point is that Singh will win but just barely. I'm wondering if a number of CPC voters will vote NDP. Having a party leader as your MP is always good for the riding.

Docere · #5 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 6:44 AM**

There's frankly a lot of anti-South Asian and anti-Black racism among Chinese Canadians.

Docere · #6 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 6:49 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loco101

My guess at this point is that Singh will win but just barely. I'm wondering if a number of CPC voters will vote NDP. Having a party leader as your MP is always good for the riding.

Doubt it. The CPC vote in Burnaby South is mostly in the Chinese community.

lio45 · #7 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 7:06 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docere

Singh is polling a distant third.
(...)
He does however lead among those polled in English.

While that could very well be normal in many areas of Quebec, I feel these two statements are a really strange combination for anywhere in Anglo Canada.

lio45 · #8 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 7:09 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loco101

My guess at this point is that Singh will win but just barely. I'm wondering if a number of CPC voters will vote NDP. Having a party leader as your MP is always good for the riding.

Not a very strong argument; it's a near-certainty the people of Burnaby South won't have a party leader as MP for very long, in any scenario.

canucklehead2 · #9 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 7:38 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

Not a very strong argument; it's a near-certainty the people of Burnaby South won't have a party leader as MP for very long, in any scenario.

Based on what? Your Anti-NDP bias? #next

Andy6 · #10 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 2:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by canucklehead2

Based on what? Your Anti-NDP bias? #next

Singh will presumably run in Ontario in the next election even if he wins this byelection. So his tenure in Burnaby will be a few months at best.

Dengler Avenue · #11 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 3:01 PM**

Are MP’s allowed to swap ridings (or seats, I don’t know the proper name) like that??

MonctonRad · #12 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 3:06 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Are MP’s allowed to swap ridings (or seats, I don’t know the proper name) like that??

Happens all the time. MacKenzie King once held a riding on PEI. Jean Chretien ran in Beausejour (outside Moncton) in the 1990's when it was doubtful that he could have held Shawinigan. I'm pretty sure Mulroney began his parliamentary career in Central Nova (NS). These were all safe seats that the party could count on if they really wanted to get a member into parliament.

The Liberals could run a blind ferret with three legs in Beausejour and still win 70% of the vote!!!

hipster duck · #13 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 3:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docere

There's frankly a lot of anti-South Asian and anti-Black racism among Chinese Canadians.

True, although Singh may be helped by the fact that Chinese Canadians don't bother coming out to vote.

kwoldtimer · #14 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 3:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy6

Singh will presumably run in Ontario in the next election even if he wins this byelection. So his tenure in Burnaby will be a few months at best.

Hasn't he said that he's planning to buy a home in Burnably South? I would think it fatal to his chances if voters knew he wasn't planning to stay on.

vid · #15 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 3:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Are MP’s allowed to swap ridings (or seats, I don’t know the proper name) like that??

What's really funny are the occasions when a party has one of it's most successful candidates resign so that a new leader could run in a "safe" seat, and then a different party wins the seat.

Over his career, McKenzie King represented Waterloo, PEI, York county, Prince Albert Saskatchewan (he spent the most time there), and Glengarry county (near Ottawa). He was from Toronto.

I think there was one case where two party leaders faced off in the same seat but I can't recall the year.

Andy6 · #16 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 3:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Hasn't he said that he's planning to buy a home in Burnably South? I would think it fatal to his chances if voters knew he wasn't planning to stay on.

If he wins, maybe he’ll decide to leave well enough alone and stay there. There is a lot of precedent for doing the opposite, though, as with Mulroney, Chrétien and even Joe Clark when he had his second fling as PC leader.

Acajack · #17 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 4:29 PM**

He's almost certain to win. Byelections are notorious for low turnouts and of course the people with the biggest to win in turning out to vote are those who want their leader to get elected, so NDP in this case.

Betcha he wins with two thirds of the vote out of a turnout of 35%.

Nouvellecosse · #18 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 4:54 PM**

What do you guys think of Singh as the party leader and as a political figure in general? I haven't been following domestic politics very closely over the past couple of years so I feel like I have some catching up to do before the next election.

JHikka · #19 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 5:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

What do you guys think of Singh as the party leader and as a political figure in general?

I don't think he's done anything of note since becoming leader. I think he has the ability to be a persuasive, charismatic political figure, but thus far has shown none of that potential.

WhipperSnapper · #20 Posted **Jan 13, 2019, 5:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

What do you guys think of Singh as the party leader and as a political figure in general? I haven't been following domestic politics very closely over the past couple of years so I feel like I have some catching up to do before the next election.

I think it was a mistake. Having someone who identifies so clearly with a foreign religion/culture will not be well received. it's a little too much diversity for most of the nation. I'd be surprised if he can maintain the progress made in the last election. True be told, the NDP will probably struggle with any leader. Trudeau's charisma has worn thin among Canadians. Most see him now as enjoying his celebrity status too much all the while cutting out the middle class to protect the privileged and/or wealthy. I fully expect a shift right even if nothing will change.

The most populous cities having to house "US refugees" because Trudeau didn't send them back home is having lasting repercussions in a city, like Toronto, can't afford to look after its poor with out of control housing costs