DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[rds70]

2016 Census estimates for counties and metro areas have been released:

Denver County 2016 - 693,060: +10,515 since 2015, +93,036 since 2010

Denver CSA 2016 - 3,470,235: +51,377 since 2015, +379,361 since 2010

Colorado Springs MSA 2016 - 712,327: +14,708 since 2015, +66,714 since 2010

Ft. Collins/Loveland MSA 2016 - 339,993: +6,124 since 2015, +40,363 since 2010

Pueblo MSA 2016 - 165,123: +2,006 since 2015, +6,060 since 2010

Grand Junction MSA 2016 - 150,083: +1,682 since 2015, +3,360 since 2010

[COS]

Is the Denver CSA simply Denver & Boulder MSA's combined? Seems like the numbers would indicate that.

Impressive that Denver County has outpaced entire Springs MSA since 2010. Love seeing infill outpace sprawl.

Would be interested to see Greeley MSA numbers as well to get a good idea of entire FoCo-Greeley area in comparison to Springs, I bet they're very similar.

[EngiNerd]

Originally Posted by COS

Is the Denver CSA simply Denver & Boulder MSA's combined? Seems like the numbers would indicate that.

Impressive that Denver County has outpaced entire Springs MSA since 2010. Love seeing infill outpace sprawl.

Would be interested to see Greeley MSA numbers as well to get a good idea of entire FoCo-Greeley area in comparison to Springs, I bet they're very similar.

Yes, it includes Denver-Aurora-Boulder (which it should)...but it also includes Greeley, which is kind of strange because very few would consider Greeley within the Denver-metro complex. I believe it's because the CSA goes by county, and Weld county is included in that (which is should be up to about Hwy 66), but being that Weld county is huge, Greeley gets pulled in too.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by rds70

2016 Census estimates for counties and metro areas have been released:

Denver County 2016 - 693,060: +10,515 since 2015, +93,036 since 2010

Denver CSA 2016 - 3,470,235: +51,377 since 2015, +379,361 since 2010

Colorado Springs MSA 2016 - 712,327: +14,708 since 2015, +66,714 since 2010

Ft. Collins/Loveland MSA 2016 - 339,993: +6,124 since 2015, +40,363 since 2010

Pueblo MSA 2016 - 165,123: +2,006 since 2015, +6,060 since 2010

Grand Junction MSA 2016 - 150,083: +1,682 since 2015, +3,360 since 2010

I thought for sure Denver County would hit 700K. It sounds like growth has slowed, for the moment, relative to prior years (last year was +15,000 so this year is down significantly both by number and percentage). We should definitely go over 700k for the 2017 count. +379,000 in the CSA is pretty amazing. I guess that explains the traffic!

[Keesy9]

Originally Posted by twister244

Well this is interesting.....

I went by this site yesterday, and if my memory serves me correctly, it's fenced off. I haven't heard of this development before.

https://www.bisnow.com/denver/news/m...nt-space-71654

Demo started yesterday.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by twister244

Well this is interesting.....

I went by this site yesterday, and if my memory serves me correctly, it's fenced off. I haven't heard of this development before.

https://www.bisnow.com/denver/news/m...nt-space-71654

Very nice design! Way to mix things up with colors, materials, vertical and horizontal elements. Really like this one! (Compare what they've done compared to nearby developments such as Hartley Flats).

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by COS

Would be interested to see Greeley MSA numbers as well to get a good idea of entire FoCo-Greeley area in comparison to Springs, I bet they're very similar.

Here's State Demographer numbers from 2015 - it's close. But that's an enormous area that'll be included when you include all of Weld and Larimer counties, which is presumably how the MSAs will be tallied.

El Paso County 677,022

Larimer County 332,832
Weld County 284,876
Sum 617,708

[ddvmke]

Originally Posted by twister244

Well this is interesting.....

I went by this site yesterday, and if my memory serves me correctly, it's fenced off. I haven't heard of this development before.

https://www.bisnow.com/denver/news/m...nt-space-71654

So many positives bringing this development to this location. A street with broken sidewalks gets brand new ones, helps bridge between River North and Ballpark neighborhoods making it a more walkable transition, has some actually interesting design elements compared to others in this area, along with another food hall.

Living in a Kephart designed community, I've noticed they give attention to small details and actually consider the context of where the building is located as well, so hopefully it turns out as good as promised.

[EngiNerd]

Another way that I think is very useful for determining populations is looking at the urbanized areas, and tallying those populations. For the Denver/Boulder/Aurora metro, I consider the following urbanized areas to be part of that, using Hwy 66 as my cutoff to the north. Arguments could be made that places like Johnstown probably commute to Boulder, and should be included, but I thought they probably belonged to the Fort Collins/Greeley MSA

Maps here for fun
https://censusreporter.org/

• Boulder = 114,591
• Denver/Aurora = 2,374,203
• Evergreen = 13,556
• Firestone/Frederick = 21,474
• Fort Lupton = 9,055
• Lafayette/Louisville/Erie = 79,407
• Lochbuie = 4,120
• Longmont = 90,897
• Roxborough Park = 8,503
  -----------------------------------
  Total = 2,715,806

It doesn't capture some of the outlying areas that have population but are less organized, but I think it does a pretty good job.

(data from Sept. 2016 http://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/refe...a_list_all.txt)

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by EngiNerd

Another way that I think is very useful for determining populations is looking at the urbanized areas, and tallying those populations. For the Denver/Boulder/Aurora metro, I consider the following urbanized areas to be part of that, using Hwy 66 as my cutoff to the north. Arguments could be made that places like Johnstown probably commute to Boulder, and should be included, but I thought they probably belonged to the Fort Collins/Greeley MSA

Maps here for fun
https://censusreporter.org/

• Boulder = 114,591
• Denver/Aurora = 2,374,203
• Evergreen = 13,556
• Firestone/Frederick = 21,474
• Fort Lupton = 9,055
• Lafayette/Louisville/Erie = 79,407
• Lochbuie = 4,120
• Longmont = 90,897
• Roxborough Park = 8,503
  -----------------------------------
  Total = 2,715,806

It doesn't capture some of the outlying areas that have population but are less organized, but I think it does a pretty good job.

(data from Sept. 2016 http://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/refe...a_list_all.txt)

I'm curious how good this method is at capturing unincorporated or rural areas that are part of a metro area. It looks like the censusreporter map has boundaries drawn around many census-designated places, for example Eldorado Springs or Niwot in Boulder County. But it's unclear to me if these areas capture enough rural residents to give an accurate number - it looks like the boundaries drawn around places like Aspen Park and Evergreen don't account for all of the residential development up there, and large parts of rural Boulder County don't have any census-designated place boundaries drawn around them. And were you tallying these areas as part of your count?

To me, this has always been a reason why the MSA and CSA format, as clunky as it is, still gives the most accurate number. It seems to be more accurate in states that have smaller counties, or townships as in MA. Out here in the west where we have counties like Weld or Riverside county CA, that are the size of small states, it creates problems like Greeley getting included in the Denver CSA. Frankly, I can't help but wonder if it is nearing time for Weld county to be subdivided again, since the southern part of it is pretty clearly Metro Denver, and the north/northeastern part is not.

[EngiNerd]

Agreed it doesn't capture those areas you mentioned, but at the same time the MSA grabs entire counties of Park, Elbert, and Clear Creek, which are not part of the Denver Metro complex, which is why I like looking at the urbanized area numbers. Maybe a more accurate method is to take the Denver MSA, Boulder MSA, and then add in the urbanized areas of Weld, and subtract out some of the urbanized areas in those 3 counties, but that starts to get nitpicky.

Or maybe just take the Denver CSA and subtract the Greeley & Johnstown urban areas, which give a population of 3,338,717.

Or maybe just stick with the CSA.

[seventwenty]

Mill Creek bullish on Denver

[T]he privately held, Dallas-based company has more than 1,300 units owned, under construction or on the drawing board in Denver neighborhoods

My back-of-the-envelope estimate is that the total sales value of the communities would top $460 million in today’s market; the communities have a construction value of more than $370 million.

. . .

“We are active, but at the moment we are very selective,” said [Senior Managing Director Brian Wynne, who heads the Denver operation]. “We will consider new opportunities, but on a very selected basis.
It is not, however, interested developing rental communities in the heart of the central business district or near Denver Union Station.

“With all of the activity going on in the downtown core of the CBD and Union Station, there is a real fear of overbuilding and too much competition,” Wynne explained. “We focus all of our activity in areas slightly on the periphery of downtown, like LoHi, Washington Park, Capitol Hill and RiNo.

. . .

Across the portfolio, he expects average rental rates to be north of $2.50 per square foot.

“We do include some large, two-bedroom units to attract empty nesters, but they are not our target market,” Wynne said.

“We’re targeting young professionals – millennials, who work downtown,” he said.

[TakeFive]

^ I've always been a fan of Mill Creek. Aside from their early projects The Douglas and The Casey plus their current Brighton Apartments project, I noticed their shift to more modest-sized projects in niche areas. Smart people.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

I thought for sure Denver County would hit 700K. It sounds like growth has slowed, for the moment, relative to prior years (last year was +15,000 so this year is down significantly both by number and percentage). We should definitely go over 700k for the 2017 count. +379,000 in the CSA is pretty amazing. I guess that explains the traffic!

Not surprised. I happen to have forecast about 10,000 for last year as did PLANSIT (IIRC). It does seem as though things may have re-accelerated or at the least are holding their own.

Denver is now at a distinct disadvantage to many cities like Dallas, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Minneapolis and others when it comes to affordability. But they continue to have an affordability advantage over coastal cities. They're probably on par with Austin and even though Austin may have more blue-blood tech companies that can also be an advantage for Denver. Denver's diversity, transit and lifestyle still attracts plenty of prospects it seems.

While the pace may have ebbed a bit I don't see anything stopping the Denver momentum anytime soon. Those with a longer view seem unbothered by any potential (temporary) oversupply of apartments downtown.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Not surprised. I happen to have forecast about 10,000 for last year as did PLANSIT (IIRC). It does seem as though things may have re-accelerated or at the least are holding their own.

Denver is now at a distinct disadvantage to many cities like Dallas, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Minneapolis and others when it comes to affordability. But they continue to have an affordability advantage over coastal cities. They're probably on par with Austin and even though Austin may have more blue-blood tech companies that can also be an advantage for Denver. Denver's diversity, transit and lifestyle still attracts plenty of prospects it seems.

While the pace may have ebbed a bit I don't see anything stopping the Denver momentum anytime soon. Those with a longer view seem unbothered by any potential (temporary) oversupply of apartments downtown.

Denver grew by 13,000. Didn't it?

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by rds70

2016 Census estimates for counties and metro areas have been released:

Denver County 2016 - 693,060: +10,515 since 2015, +93,036 since 2010

Where did you get 10,515? I'm not saying you're wrong; I just feel like there are multiple estimates for 2015 out there and I don't know where they're coming from? I could swear I remember seeing an estimate for 2015 that was 682,XXX, but now I can't remember where I saw it and can't seem to find it. Are there two different estimates? One for the city and one for the county? Shouldn't they be the same?

Anyway, using the data from the Census Bureau's website this is what I get:

693,060 – 680,032 = 13,028

*Edit: the Census Bureau's factfinder page where I got that data happens to be down right now but you can also find the data here: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets...ies-total.html

[DenverInfill]

You can't take this year's 2016 estimate and subtract last year's 2015 estimate. That's not the way it works. Each new annual estimate includes a complete re-estimation of all previous years back to 2010. This year the Bureau re-estimated Denver's 2015 population at 680k and change, with growth of 13K to arrive at our new 2016 number of 693k.

I discuss the intercensal estimates here:

http://denverurbanism.com/2016/03/ce...estimates.html

[Sam Hill]

Ah. Of course.

[rds70]

Tower cranes going up at on Greystar's Parq on Speer project:

[Alchemist]

Looks like the 25/70 redevelopment is becoming more ambitious. Would be really great if it happens.

https://www.denvergov.org/content/de.../2570-gdp.html

Here is a presentation of what could be developed.

https://issuu.com/trybaarchitects/do...-1_screen-pres

Also, a lot of the land near the 41st/Fox Station have be rezoned to be reflective of the station area plan including up to C-MX-20. That area could become quite dense.