Green Line LRT - $4.6 Billion Project

[Policy Wonk]

If the City of Calgary were inclined to running a street car up Centre Street it would be operating today.

I have grown skeptical that the at-grade Centre Street alignment is a serious proposal and I have felt that way since Giannelia spoke about a tunnel as far as McKnight, he wouldn't have ad-libbed that.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by milomilo

One has to ask why we are building LRT to the SE at all. If it isn't built, what are the negative consequences?

The most powerful arguments remaining appear to be jobs (though the oft-repeated 20,000 figure shouldn't be possible as wages and benefits would conservatively be in the billions of dollars a year), losing the funding from the other governments and vague improvements for congestion and taking cars off the road.

But the city should have stuck to its own plan - Route Ahead - and built the SE leg as BRT. It could have been running for a few years by now and we'd have data to see if there is enough demand for a train every six minutes. And they could have focused on the portion of the line that actually justified rail all along.

Interesting to note that back in June, Steer provided a document looking at some alternatives (which I think was biased to support the new alignment) and I found that the all-BRT option to be attractive in that its capital cost is less than 1/4 of the price of the equivalent length LRT system but still have decent ridership and at least for the SE, the very short headways may be more useful than the capacity.

[milomilo]

That's an interesting chart. They definitely will be coerced into making the favoured outcome look good.

Notice how they say ability to meet demand in 2048 - as if we have to build the system now to meet projected demand in the city 27 years away. And yet, there has to be funny business there as the LRT system terminating at 16 Ave does nothing to improve capacity north of there, so a "BRT" only system on Centre St would have identical capacity to having LRT to 16th then BRT from there.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

If the City of Calgary were inclined to running a street car up Centre Street it would be operating today.

I have grown skeptical that the at-grade Centre Street alignment is a serious proposal and I have felt that way since Giannelia spoke about a tunnel as far as McKnight, he wouldn't have ad-libbed that.

Could you expand on this? What did this person say?

I agree, I've always been sceptical they ever could build on surface on Centre St. My scepticism has been reduced somewhat as they do seem to seriously think it is possible, but with these rumours of trouble acquiring property, it's hard to tell and I still say it's more likely than not north of Eau Claire on surface eventually turns out to be impossible. The City will blame the province, and claim things they've known all along was brand new information.

[YYCguys]

Originally Posted by Pegasus

https://globalnews.ca/news/7878557/c...t-2nd-segment/...Money would be saved on not having to build a new bridge over Princess Island...

Prince’s Island is comprised of land donated by the family of Eau Claire Lumber Mill founder Peter Prince. It is not named after a female member of the Royal Family.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Notice how they say ability to meet demand in 2048 - as if we have to build the system now to meet projected demand in the city 27 years away. And yet, there has to be funny business there as the LRT system terminating at 16 Ave does nothing to improve capacity north of there, so a "BRT" only system on Centre St would have identical capacity to having LRT to 16th then BRT from there.

Agreed, that part is one of the things that I found very biased. It needs to be extended to the more useful terminuses to really meet demand in 2048 but it doesn't get dinged for it. Similarly, it gets to add the North BRT ridership but it doesn't add the operating costs of those buses allowing it stay at $6M for the North.

Personally, I wouldn't mind if the Green Line does fall apart if we could get a fair, impartial (and accurate) study on the costs and benefits of various rapid transit options for the corridor.

[Policy Wonk]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Could you expand on this? What did this person say?

I agree, I've always been sceptical they ever could build on surface on Centre St. My scepticism has been reduced somewhat as they do seem to seriously think it is possible, but with these rumours of trouble acquiring property, it's hard to tell and I still say it's more likely than not north of Eau Claire on surface eventually turns out to be impossible. The City will blame the province, and claim things they've known all along was brand new information.

Before Paul Giannelia was fired from the Green Line project less than three years ago he was supportive of going underground to McKnight, he wouldn't have gone there if he was going against council's wishes. He would have said something like "I'm afraid we aren't prepared to address that as it is outside the scope of the Stage One plan as approved by city council in 2017."

That made me suspect that the tunnel ambitions survived the 2017 vote among council and I suspect that hasn't really changed in the intervening years.

I'm not skeptical that the surface alignment can be built, just abandon all pretense that Centre Street will be anything other than lousy for all users of the corridor including transit.

[Rollerstud98]

It should be tunnel to Harvest Hills Blvd. Come out of the ground right the bus trap is, the road there is designed for it to be run up the middle after that.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

Before Paul Giannelia was fired from the Green Line project less than three years ago he was supportive of going underground to McKnight, he wouldn't have gone there if he was going against council's wishes. He would have said something like "I'm afraid we aren't prepared to address that as it is outside the scope of the Stage One plan as approved by city council in 2017."

That made me suspect that the tunnel ambitions survived the 2017 vote among council and I suspect that hasn't really changed in the intervening years.

I'm not skeptical that the surface alignment can be built, just abandon all pretense that Centre Street will be anything other than lousy for all users of the corridor including transit.

Thanks for the info.

Sure - it could be built. But as you say, it will be lousy, for everyone, not just cars. But I am still sceptical that the designs calling for 2 lanes LRT, platforms, 2 road lanes, turning lanes and an improved streetscape can fit in the ~22m ROW without tearing down many buildings.

[jules_landlocked]

Originally Posted by Policy Wonk

If the City of Calgary were inclined to running a street car up Centre Street it would be operating today.

I have grown skeptical that the at-grade Centre Street alignment is a serious proposal and I have felt that way since Giannelia spoke about a tunnel as far as McKnight, he wouldn't have ad-libbed that.

City Transit unwillingness to explore a Street Car network is baffling. It's worked in multiple colder climates including our own city, Toronto, and Northern Europe.

At first, I'd thought it was reluctance to take away capacity from their existing roads, but their proposed low floor transit down Centre Street proposal does exactly the same thing.

Spending an extra 3-4 billion, just to put a two station underground tunnel downtown so it connects to a new Maintenance yard is ridiculous, especially given they won't have the money, in the short term, to extend the lines either North or SE to places that will put bodies into the trains.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by jules_landlocked

City Transit unwillingness to explore a Street Car network is baffling. It's worked in multiple colder climates including our own city, Toronto, and Northern Europe.

The evolution of the Green Line suggests that the planners will never make that kind of change unless it gets cancelled by a higher authority and they're forced to start from scratch. Otherwise if costs continue to go up, they'll just cut back on its length and remove grade-separation.

[milomilo]

https://livewirecalgary.com/2021/06/...ction-process/

The Green Line is dead! Long live the Green Line!

We have come full circle, back to SELRT without the NCLRT. These two lines are being built in the wrong order, but I'm glad we don't have to worry about the abomination that running trains on Centre Street would have been for a few years.

Those low floor trains sure are pointless now though.

[MalcolmTucker]

Now we have to hope the RFP isn't entirely prescriptive on the vehicles - maybe it would save money over 30 years to go high floor. I'm not entirely sure where it would land.

[Pegasus]

Originally Posted by milomilo

https://livewirecalgary.com/2021/06/...ction-process/
We have come full circle, back to SELRT without the NCLRT.

Shepard to the Elbow River, Elbow to Eau Claire. Have any ridership studies been done on just these two sections being built?

Is "underground" from Elbow River to Eau Claire still in the plan? I suspect there is a strong chance this section will run considerably over-budget thus throwing any future expansion of the line into doubt. ("According to the city, they will advance the phase 2 plan from Eau Claire to 16 Avenue N if cost escalations don’t materialize in phase 1")

[MalcolmTucker]

It cuts the ridership for sure. The most important thing now is making sure the plans don’t try to save more money by making decisions which cause massive future costs, like locking us into a tunnel under the river.

Presuming a business case approval of course.

[jules_landlocked]

Originally Posted by milomilo

https://livewirecalgary.com/2021/06/...ction-process/

The Green Line is dead! Long live the Green Line!

We have come full circle, back to SELRT without the NCLRT. These two lines are being built in the wrong order, but I'm glad we don't have to worry about the abomination that running trains on Centre Street would have been for a few years.

Those low floor trains sure are pointless now though.

Barring a major municipal electoral surprise, I suspect the NCLRT phase will be nixed by a more conservative city council after the election. They will end up choosing to fully extend extend the SE leg out to Seton for 200-300 million over spending the full 5.5 - 6 billion to get a single station and bridge into the North. A SE leg that doesn't reach the suburbs will run a ridiculous operating deficit given the lack of ridership and lack of park/ride capacity.

This has turned into a Urban Planning master class in what not to do when planning a major municipal transportation project. Imagine spending 6 billion dollars and all you get is two low floor tram stations downtown, not accessible by any of existing LRT lines, an expensive bridge to extend a line to one single station in the North, and a new maintenance yard for city transit. What a mess...

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Pegasus

Shepard to the Elbow River, Elbow to Eau Claire. Have any ridership studies been done on just these two sections being built?

The Segment 2 Functional plan had 2028 estimates of 2100 passengers per day at 9th Avenue N and 4400 passengers per day at 16th Avenue. So without this section, you're potentially looking at less than 50K trips/day for Phase 1.

https://pub-calgary.escribemeetings....umentId=163182

[outoftheice]

I always find it interesting when people speak as if the $4.9 billion Green Line budget is all the money that will ever be available for this project. Let's not forget the federal government is planning on spending $3 billion/year on public transit beginning in 2026. Calgary's share of this will be several hundred millions dollars per year so before the Shepard to Eau Claire stage is even finished construction there could be another half billion dollars in the pot to cover any cost over-runs and build over the river and up to 16th. That doesn't even account for the fact 2 provincial elections will be fought in that timeline and a replacement for MSI will most likely need to be proposed which is hundreds of millions of dollars more into the pot. Green Line will be built and it will be built north of the river and up Centre St it's now just more of a question of whether construction will start in 2028 or earlier.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by milomilo

We have come full circle, back to SELRT without the NCLRT. These two lines are being built in the wrong order, but I'm glad we don't have to worry about the abomination that running trains on Centre Street would have been for a few years.

Those low floor trains sure are pointless now though.

At least council got the bolded part right.

Hopefully they can kill the low floor trains and have one cohesive system. I don't think it makes sense for a city of this size to have two incompatible types of rolling stock.

[jules_landlocked]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

At least council got the bolded part right.

Hopefully they can kill the low floor trains and have one cohesive system. I don't think it makes sense for a city of this size to have two incompatible types of rolling stock.

Given that Siemens didn't even make the vendor short list back in 2019, I'm pretty sure the City is dead set on both a low floor train and a new supplier. Not sure, if that's about price or did they have the some significant maintenance/support issues over the years?

If I was a betting person, I'd put most of my money on the Alstom Citadis Spirit at this point.