How COVID is creating opportunities in the suburbs - Page 3

mrnyc · #41 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 1:29 PM**

after work i sat outside on the street yesterday for the first time at one of the outdoor seating platforms that have popped up everywhere.

it was early afternoon and no one was there, so i had a beer. it was fine, except...

first some landscapers came around to fuss with plant beds around the street platform. of the two of them, one had a mask and one had that no intention of ever wearing a mask look. so i moved.

then a couple maskless bikers came by and stopped right next to me to jibber jabber and fuss around. i moved again.

so this having to be on your guard was not very relaxing.

doubt i will be doing that again anytime soon.

and definitely no dining outside, much less inside -- i have walked by that scene and it is a freakin coronafest at night time (hudson st in the west village).

the urban politician · #42 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 4:39 PM**

Marcus & Millichap CEO predicts “exodus” from cities to last two years

Hessam Nadji said pandemic has accelerated millennials’ movement to suburbs

July 09, 2020

Quote:

New York City is reopening, but Marcus & Millichap’s CEO is not predicting a return to form anytime soon.

Hessam Nadji told CNBC in an interview this week that demand was surging in suburban areas as people fled cities, a trend he predicted would continue for up to two years.

“I think the next 18 to 24 months are going to show a lot of exodus out of central business districts,” he said.

https://therealdeal.com/chicago/2020...ast-two-years/

the urban politician · #43 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 4:43 PM**

For any real estate investors:

I'm itching to find good deals in Chicago city proper as rents are headed downward. I would like to expand my rental property portfolio. Already found something I have been eyeing for years, as the price continues to drop.

If you can buy urban real estate at a good price during these doldrums and hang onto it, you will probably be rewarded in the next 1-2 years as cities rebound. And I think they will rebound BIG TIME.

However, I also think that diversifying one's portfolio by buying something in sprawlburbia may not be a bad investment.

Acajack · #44 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 4:48 PM**

I am 50-50 on whether this will seriously hurt central cities, but I am 99% certain that it will arrest for the immediate future most of the relative decline of suburban areas that we were starting to see in many metros.

iheartthed · #45 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 4:55 PM**

I live in NYC, I'm on the older end of millennial, I have several friends that just had babies during the pandemic, and I can't think of a single person that I know who is considering a move to the suburbs of NYC. If people are thinking of leaving at all, they are considering moving to another city for either weather, cost of living, jobs, or some combination of those reasons.

ETA: I just thought of two people I know who decamped for the suburbs this year, but they both left before the pandemic.

SIGSEGV · #46 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 5:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

For any real estate investors:

I'm itching to find good deals in Chicago city proper as rents are headed downward. I would like to expand my rental property portfolio. Already found something I have been eyeing for years, as the price continues to drop.

If you can buy urban real estate at a good price during these doldrums and hang onto it, you will probably be rewarded in the next 1-2 years as cities rebound. And I think they will rebound BIG TIME.

However, I also think that diversifying one's portfolio by buying something in sprawlburbia may not be a bad investment.

What if prices are going down because of the economic downturn? Or you know, because >2000 extra people in Chicago died.

mrnyc · #47 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 5:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I live in NYC, I'm on the older end of millennial, I have several friends that just had babies during the pandemic, and I can't think of a single person that I know who is considering a move to the suburbs of NYC. If people are thinking of leaving at all, they are considering moving to another city for either weather, cost of living, jobs, or some combination of those reasons.

ETA: I just thought of two people I know who decamped for the suburbs this year, but they both left before the pandemic.

i dk where you live, but where i do every one of the young people left our building. its half empty now. only us old timers and rent controllers are here.

its the same on the streets. yes i see them coming back to life, but still only a fraction of the pedestrians vs before the corona.

iheartthed · #48 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 6:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc

i dk where you live, but where i do every one of the young people left our building. its half empty now. only us old timers and rent controllers are here.

its the same on the streets. yes i see them coming back to life, but still only a fraction of the pedestrians vs before the corona.

Did they leave to settle in the suburbs? I know people who have left the city to stay with their relatives in the suburbs or other cities, but I don't know people who intend to permanently settle in suburban NY because of the pandemic.

Crawford · #49 Posted **Jul 9, 2020, 6:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I live in NYC, I'm on the older end of millennial, I have several friends that just had babies during the pandemic, and I can't think of a single person that I know who is considering a move to the suburbs of NYC. If people are thinking of leaving at all, they are considering moving to another city for either weather, cost of living, jobs, or some combination of those reasons.

ETA: I just thought of two people I know who decamped for the suburbs this year, but they both left before the pandemic.

Yup, same here. Park Slope is family-central, and don't know anyone who is leaving, though half the families were temporarily gone (basically anyone with a weekend home or parents in the suburbs or countryside). And the local schools still have the ridiculous wait lists for the fall.

I'm still not clear why anyone would think that people would permanently change their lifestyle preferences based on a temporary pandemic. Of course some will move to the suburbs, because that's what many people do. But it isn't specifically pandemic-related.

the urban politician · #50 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 2:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I live in NYC, I'm on the older end of millennial, I have several friends that just had babies during the pandemic, and I can't think of a single person that I know who is considering a move to the suburbs of NYC. If people are thinking of leaving at all, they are considering moving to another city for either weather, cost of living, jobs, or some combination of those reasons.

ETA: I just thought of two people I know who decamped for the suburbs this year, but they both left before the pandemic.

Bruised by the pandemic, New Yorkers head for the suburbs

Thomas URBAIN
July 13, 2020

Quote:

New York (AFP) - The trauma of the coronavirus pandemic is pushing New Yorkers to move out of the city in ever greater numbers, sending real estate prices through the roof in surrounding areas while leaving behind vacant apartments and fire-sale prices for real estate.

"I wasn't ready to go yet," said Nick Barnhorst, recalling how he felt in February.

At 41, he had been a New York resident for 11 years, and loved the city. He had thought about moving to the suburbs to accommodate his growing family, but not for another year at least.

In just weeks, though, his wife became pregnant with their third child, and the coronavirus was ravaging New York.

That's when it hit Nick: "We got to get the hell out of here as soon as possible."

Next week, Nick expects to close on a house in Mamaroneck, a posh suburban town north of the city.

"I always imagined that I would leave kicking and screaming and I'd really been resistant to the idea of moving out, and now I couldn't be more excited," he said.

A friend of Nick's took even more decisive action. He left the city in early March with his wife, who was eight months pregnant, to spend a weekend with his in-laws in Massachusetts. They never returned.

Nick's friend sold his apartment in New York and bought in Bronxville, just north of the city in Westchester County.

"Being captive in a small apartment with two kids for four months while the city has been shut down, and none of the things that made the city the city has been going, it feels kind of easy to walk away at this point," said Nick.

"But I keep having this thought in the back of my head that a year or two from now I'm going to say: what were we doing? Why did we ever leave?"

With the suburban real estate market bubbling, finding a new home was not easy and there was no room for negotiation.

"We felt that we had to come in at the asking price or else we were going to lose it because there was so much interest," Nick said.

In the sought-after town of Montclair, New Jersey, it is not unusual these days to see houses going for 20 percent over the asking price, according to data tracked by Richard Stanton, a real estate agent there.

https://news.yahoo.com/bruised-pande...143523819.html

Crawford · #51 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:00 PM**

There's anecdote, and there's data. There's zero data indicating that the suburbs are seeing increased demand. Of course there are always tons of people moving to the suburbs; that's how it's always worked. And RE agents are always liars and shills; that's their job.

Montclair, NJ is an urban, walkable, transit and apartment-oriented suburb. It's like the total opposite of sprawl. Super liberal, a ton of train stations, large nonwhite population. If Montclair is seeing a boom that's an endorsement of urban living, not suburbia.

the urban politician · #52 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:06 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

There's anecdote, and there's data. There's zero data indicating that the suburbs are seeing increased demand. Of course there are always tons of people moving to the suburbs; that's how it's always worked. And RE agents are always liars and shills' that's their job.

Montclair, NJ is an urban, walkable, transit and apartment-oriented suburb. It's like the total opposite of sprawl. Super liberal, a ton of train stations, large nonwhite population. If Montclair is seeing a boom that's an endorsement of urban living, not suburbia.

^ You're full of BS (as usual):

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coro...n-suburbs.html

The flight to the suburbs is real and growing, as coronavirus changes the way people live

PUBLISHED THU, JUN 18 2020 PM EDT
Diana Olick

Quote:

As the real estate market began to recover in May, home searches in suburban zip codes jumped 13%, according to realtor.com, one of the largest real estate listing websites.

That doubled the pace of growth in urban areas.
More than half of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas are seeing increased interest in the suburbs.

The stay-at-home orders brought on by coronavirus have more potential homebuyers looking for properties in the suburbs. Millennials are now the largest cohort of buyers.

As the real estate market began to recover in May, home searches in suburban zip codes jumped 13%, according to realtor.com, one of the largest real estate listing websites. That doubled the pace of growth in urban areas.

While homes are spending more time on the market overall, due to complications surrounding closings, both suburban and rural markets are not experiencing that lag time as much, due to very strong demand.

“This migration to the suburbs is not a new trend, but it has become more pronounced this spring,” said Javier Vivas, realtor.com director of economic research. “After several months of shelter-in-place orders, the desire to have more space and the potential for more people to work remotely are likely two of the factors contributing to the popularity of the burbs.”

Housing starts rose 4.3% in May, versus 22.3% increase expected
More than half of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas are seeing increased interest in the suburbs. Real estate agents in the New York City area have reported strong demand in the surrounding suburbs, as contracts on Manhattan apartments plunged 80% annually in May, according to Jonathan Miller of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel.

the urban politician · #53 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:07 PM**

Backing Up Tales of a Suburban Exodus, Areas Outside New York City See Increased Demand
Westchester and New Jersey are faring better than Manhattan in terms of demand, which could lead to price changes

https://www.mansionglobal.com/articl...-demand-215250

the urban politician · #54 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:08 PM**

Suburban New Jersey Homes Headed for Biggest Price Increase Since 2005
By Oshrat Carmiel
June 17, 2020, 10:12 AM CDT
Lockdown driving the search for space outside cramped NYC

Quote:

Pandemic-weary New Yorkers, eager to escape the confines of city living, may push up suburban New Jersey home prices by the most in 16 years.

That’s the forecast by real estate consultancy Otteau Valuation Group for four counties close to New York City: Bergen, Essex, Union and Middlesex. The firm sees a dip in single-family home prices this year, followed by a 6% jump in 2021, the biggest annual increase since 2005.

“This looks like the 1970s, which was a time when people were leaving the cities,” Jeffrey Otteau, president of the firm, said in an interview. “You had tremendous growth in places like Long Island and Westchester County, at the expense of the Manhattan economy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ase-since-2005

the urban politician · #55 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:10 PM**

The Housing Market Around New York City Is Booming
Real-estate agents say home shoppers are looking to buy outside of the city; concerns over second wave of pandemic-related restrictions

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hou...ng-11592227115

Crawford · #56 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:10 PM**

Mindlessly trolling, yet again.

Feel free to feverishly Google to your heart's content. You still haven't provided any data that indicate your claims are true.

Where is the evidence of increased sales prices in sprawl, and decreased sales prices in urban areas? Data please.

the urban politician · #57 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

Mindlessly trolling, yet again.

Feel free to feverishly Google to your heart's content. You still haven't provided any data that indicate your claims are true.

^ There are stats in those articles. Plus, rents are declining in city centers.

You just want to deny what's really happening. But that's typical of you

I don't disagree that we can't say whether or not this will be a long term trend. I would gather that it won't be.

dc_denizen · #58 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:19 PM**

sorry, TUP is correct.

besides covid, not everyone wants to send their kids to a school in NYC ,run by del blasio's incompetent, woke chancellor.

https://www.city-journal.org/richard...nza-16179.html

https://nypost.com/2020/06/22/the-an...paganda-mills/

Quote:

Carranza has continued to spread his radical, race-based message of transformation. “We’re not about improving the system,” he told Al Sharpton’s National Action Network last weekend. “We’re about changing the system.” That system, he claims, fails to teach black and Latino students, while offering a different level of service to other, presumably white, children. Carranza wants to eliminate the test-based system of admission to the city’s specialized high schools, which has resulted in disproportionate representation of South Asian and East Asian kids in Brooklyn Tech, Stuyvesant, and six other premier schools. “I don’t buy into the narrative that any one ethnic group owns admissions to these schools,” Carranza said, as though studying for and excelling on standardized tests was somehow indicative of entitlement.

NYC education meeting turns into parody of woke politics as members spend 90 minutes scolding each other about white supremacy

https://www.theblaze.com/news/nyc-ed...-woke-politics

Quote:

"It hurts people when they see a white man bouncing a brown baby on their lap and they don't know the context," Broshi charged. "That is harmful! That makes people cry. That makes people log out of our meetings."

or pay $40,000 per year for your kid to get an education in their white privilege at a private school

Crawford · #59 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ There are stats in those articles.

No, there aren't. You're just googling random articles to support your narrative.

Some sales agent saying "oh, my town is hot, hot, hot!" or "Zillow searches in Happy Valley, OH rose 10% during the Pandemic" aren't evidence.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Plus, rents are declining in city centers.

Rents (and home prices) are declining in suburbs too. So how does that support your narrative?

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

You just want to deny what's really happening.

What is happening? Be specific and provide evidence.

dc_denizen · #60 Posted **Jul 13, 2020, 3:25 PM**

sale prices jumping 5% in desirable suburbs is evidence. Rent increases are even higher.

I'm sure you can find examples on zillow.