Big cities pummeled by COVID--best time to start new highrise projects?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Gordo

I'll agree with others on the convention front - they'll be back, and I actually think that in a world where WFH is embraced more broadly conventions could become a BIGGER thing.

I've worked in geographically dispersed teams before, and those teams had more convention attendance than others, just because it was an excuse to get the team together as well as meet other folks in the industry. I could definitely see some roles moving to being largely "remote but you need to attend X conferences in Vegas and Orlando each year which we'll combine with team offsites".

My firm position is that with the technologies we now have, WFH is a no brainer in many cases and that it's here to stay to a degree (i.e. I'm certain that post-Covid, we won't be going FULLY back to the low-tech, old-school business-as-before mindset where everyone has to be physically in the same office all the time), but I'm willing to agree with you that maybe it will have the effect you are forecasting on conventions.

These more specific ramifications are harder to predict. The general trends are easier - more WFH, more door delivery, less need for expensive brick and mortar retail space, less need for expensive centrally-located large offices.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

that's what i would have thought too, but then today, the developer of this 47 story/523' mixed-use hotel/apartment tower in chicago announced that they landed financing for their main construction loan and that work will start in august.






we also had a new 835' office tower start construction two months ago, but it's a flagship Hines project that already had Salesforce signed on to an anchor lease prior to the covid madness, so not nearly as surprising as today's announcement about the hotel/apartment tower.






still, that's two major tower projects here in chicago that have landed financing during the pandemic, which is encouraging no matter how you slice it.

Well, the first project in the post above officially started construction this week.

So that's two big towers in Chicago that have started construction during the pandemic.

Have any other US cities seen construction starts on new tall towers since the pandemic blew up back in March?

[mhays]

Seattle has finally started a couple residential towers for real. The 48-story 2000 3rd and 44-story 1000 Virginia both started drilling and shoring this week. Until now, a lot of lowrise multifamily had started but no highrises. Well, one 10-story office on an existing pad started a few months ago.

Bellevue has started a 600' office tower leased to Amazon (tower crane is up), and a 17-story office leased to Amazon (shoring and digging). Bellevue is home of HQ1b and has these plus a couple 14-story buildings all underway for Amazon.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Well, the first project in the post above officially started construction this week.

So that's two big towers in Chicago that have started construction during the pandemic.

Have any other US cities seen construction starts on new tall towers since the pandemic blew up back in March?

In Downtown LA we have had 3 towers in the 40 story range break ground. We also had a 65 story tower start at the beginning of the year

[the urban politician]

Things are slow, but people with a long view know that cities aren't going anywhere

[eschaton]

At least in North America, the timetable for these kind of projects basically means even if they break ground right now, they won't actually be done until some time in 2022.

By that time, it's fairly safe to presume things will be somewhat "back to normal" right? Either we will have a working vaccine, or we'll be (sadly) rather close to herd immunity.

I expect in the post-COVID world the hotel market will become stronger, with all of the pent up demand bursting forward all at once. Residential will also be strong. Office demand may remain weak for quite some time though, as lots of people will have permanently shifted to working from home.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I expect in the post-COVID world the hotel market will become stronger, with all of the pent up demand bursting forward all at once. .

^ Ain't that the truth.....

I need a vacation. SO. Badly.

I'm so bored out of my mind

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Ain't that the truth.....

I need a vacation. SO. Badly.

I'm so bored out of my mind

The other aspect is for those of us who haven't lost jobs and are working from home, we're just not spending anywhere near as much. No travel, no money spent on commuting, less money overall on restaurants, etc. So lots of people will have not only a lot of rolled-over vacation time, but a huge wad of cash to burn through.

[the urban politician]

^ To keep this thread on topic, I responded to your post here:

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...42036&page=184

[Maldive]

Despite a seemingly brief pause and moments of dread - "Oh great, my favourite ('scraper) hobby is frozen". T.O.'s 150 cranes are active, projects are topping out, many more are climbing to grade and beyond (including commercial builds), SkyTower (2nd supertall and the tallest in the country) is site-shoring and, suprisingly... an almost weekly proliferation of tall new proposals comparable to any boom I can remember.

The suburbs are just as crazy (Mississauga, Vaughn etc.).

Given the doom and gloom forecasts, this is probably unique* in N.A.

P.S. *except for NYC of course lol

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Maldive

Despite a seemingly brief pause and moments of dread - "Oh great, my favourite ('scraper) hobby is frozen". T.O.'s 150 cranes are active, projects are topping out, many more are climbing to grade and beyond (including commercial builds), SkyTower (2nd supertall and the tallest in the country) is site-shoring and, suprisingly... an almost weekly proliferation of tall new proposals comparable to any boom I can remember.

The suburbs are just as crazy (Mississauga, Vaughn etc.).

Given the doom and gloom forecasts, this is probably unique* in N.A.

P.S. *except for NYC of course lol

Yeah, I see this as proof that these death of the city premonitions are way off base. Construction was part of phase 1 reopening in NYC. Since the reopening in June they've already thrown up the frame of an apartment building across the street from my building. I wouldn't be surprised if things get overheated by next year when there is (hopefully) a vaccine or effective treatment.

[chris08876]

Its a good time to start a high rise if you can anticipate the demand returning. For example, hospitality.

Housing is always desirable in some metros where there is high demand. Luxury may take a toll, but affordable housing is always a plus. And even with luxury, even if the market softens, in some metros, it will return in time. Not to say that a luxury project can't rise, but the risk is a little higher for developers with aggressive time tables to sell or one's that need a sell out ASAP versus one's willing to wait a few years for 100% occupancy.

Any capital expenditure backed up by a ton of reserve capital will mitigate the risk. As we see with some NYC developers for example (Vornado comes to mind). Extell as reserves due to its sell out at 220 CPS).

Miami developers benefit from pre-sales. Often folks have to wait 2-3 years for their units. Whats not good is if they back out, but I think certain metros will resume high rise activity by 2021 with respect to good risk optimism.

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by Maldive

Despite a seemingly brief pause and moments of dread - "Oh great, my favourite ('scraper) hobby is frozen". T.O.'s 150 cranes are active, projects are topping out, many more are climbing to grade and beyond (including commercial builds), SkyTower (2nd supertall and the tallest in the country) is site-shoring and, suprisingly... an almost weekly proliferation of tall new proposals comparable to any boom I can remember.

The suburbs are just as crazy (Mississauga, Vaughn etc.).

Given the doom and gloom forecasts, this is probably unique* in N.A.

P.S. *except for NYC of course lol

Every proposal in Toronto has to go through rezoning. It's an inexpensive process that adds alot of value to the property. It means relatively little as far as actual building goes. The number of proposals is equal to 15 years of peak construction.

The pandemic has bloodied investors more than any other time during this 20 year boom. Toronto has had multiple ups and downs. The market for short term (furnished) condo/ rental accommodations has taken a bigger hit than the hotel industry. Everything that is under construction pre covid or even started construction post covid was arranged before covid. It won't be clear the impacts, if any, until at least this time next year.

[Maldive]

Even with the forecasted rain for the (proposal) parade, the sheer number of active tall projects (incl. Canada's 2 new tallests eventually topping BMO), both downtown and in the burbs, is quite astonishing.

[ocman]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

In Downtown LA we have had 3 towers in the 40 story range break ground. We also had a 65 story tower start at the beginning of the year

Construction is booming in LA, mostly because I think companies see the benefits of building during a period of lower traffic and easier road closures, a benefit of the pandemic in a city where traffic congestion gets in the way of everything. LA County Museum of Art sees the benefits of building while everyone is distracted by covid and less likely to concern themselves too much over controversies of it’s redevelopment.

At the same time, we’ve only been dealing with this pandemic for about 6 months. These projects going up now have been years in the making regardless. They’re not reflective of current reality. Covid’s effects will be on new development plans, not projects already clearing dirt. What you see going up now is always reflective of a past period, not the current one which we won’t see until years down the line. Plans get scrapped earlier in the process, so the plans scrapped by covid now means some project isn’t gonna happen 3 years from now.

[mhays]

The final weeks before a start are a time of uncertainty. Projects that WANT to start may or may not choose to, or be able to.

Right before they start is when they need to sign financial deals, the uncertain entitlement and permitting processes finish, the construction cost gets reasonably clear, and they (developer and financial partners) do a final deep dive into market conditions.

Watch for real money being spent. In my area, putting shoring steel into the ground is the main sign of a real start. Clearing the site is a hopeful sign but relatively meaningless.

[mrnyc]

well a lot of non-stop new development is happening nearby in either direction just around our place -- it seems 14st is hot property as it got calmed by transforming into a busway!

first up, we have had an entirely new office building going up just on the corner of my w14st/8av block in the wv since the pandemic started --- its about 3/4 done.

it's heading from this ...




... to this -- an actual halfway decent office bldg via gene kaufman (one of nyc's hack architects)



^ and although i lost my old school deli, the best part is the property owner chun woo and his family, who we all liked a lot, held out forever and still owns the new building.



and on the other side of my block at w14st/9av we are going from this ...




to this soon supposedly ...





also, just down w14st at 6th av there are two major new buildings going up on the corners non-stop during the pandemic.

one is replacing this old moderne bank ...





... with this beautiful oda designed apt building that is almost finished already.





right across the street, the former sol moscot/dance studios building was bought by extell for $50m in 2016 ...




... it's pretty far along too -- morris adjimi designed it, so it will be fine

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

... to this -- an actual halfway decent office bldg via gene kaufman (one of nyc's hack architects)

Actually, the above building has a slightly new design:





Also, I think this thread is about buildings that have started (went from proposed from U/C) from mid-March (or lockdown) to now. I don't think any of your examples fit the bill.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

Actually, the above building has a slightly new design:





Also, I think this thread is about buildings that have started (went from proposed from U/C) from mid-March (or lockdown) to now. I don't think any of your examples fit the bill.

well suit yourself because they were all just mostly pits in the ground then, so the work on all has actually really accellerated during the pandemic. the point is thats a lot of action within a few blocks so pandemic development is going full bore from my end.

[mhays]

Agreed...continuing construction isn't the same as starting. The default is to continue existing projects unless something goes majorly wrong. Starting a new project is never the default position.