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  #61  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 2:50 AM
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Would Quebec want the Flames? I think we could just bring the Hitmen up to the NHL, I'm pretty sure they wouldn't blow a 5-0 lead.
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  #62  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 4:43 AM
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Originally Posted by cornholio View Post
Quebec, Winipeg and Hamilton wont have teams within our lifetimes...sigh....i cant beleive i still have to repeat for 3 years now.

Sorry for being a downer but its the sad truth.
no problem...its your opinion....

the truth as you see it is not the truth as i see it.....my truth sees the inevitability of all three having teams.....its only a matter of time...and that's the happy truth.

10 teams are for sale and hemmoraging money......its simple odds that at least one will land in canada

i bet at least one will have a team in 2 years.

Last edited by trueviking; Oct 13, 2009 at 5:32 AM.
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  #63  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 5:02 AM
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i posted this in the winnipeg version of this thread to show how dire the situation really is and how much the NHL needs more canadian teams...its inevitable....teams will go where they can make money....no matter what resistance there is, it will eventually happen.

http://www.rodneyfort.com/PHSportsEc...com5-30-08.pdf

http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/v5/content/pdf/NHLweb.pdf

average NHL ticket price: $51.00

what this chart shows is that 9 teams, almost 1/3 of the league have an average attendance of 12 000 per game or less at the average ticket price....6 teams are closer to an average attendance of 10 000 per game at the average ticket price.

the average television revenue for an NHL team is only $11 million ($3 mil in phoenix)...the money at the gate is what drives the league and 1/3 of the league has no gate....CBC's contract contributes almost 1/3 of all television revenues to the NHL (including local broadcasts).....more canadian teams is the only solution.

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  #64  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 1:02 PM
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^awesome statistics. Bolsters the claim that Canada is where hockey belongs. I don't give two fucks about the league being more North American and less Canadian; in fact, the reverse is much more appealing.
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  #65  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 4:16 PM
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So Winnipeggers (and others), for the sake of discussion, is the MTS Centre considered a plus or a liability for getting back into the NHL? Everyone says it is too small but could it be easily expanded? I say this because it would appear that playing in the MTS Centre (either as it is now or expanded) would have to be the only option. I don’t think anyone in Winnipeg is going to spend $200M for another arena after $135M was spent just five years ago on the MTS...

Also, can anyone tell me why they did not build to around 18,500 capacity in the first place, just in case? Is there that much of a cost difference between 15 and 18 thousand? Or was there some other factor?
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  #66  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 5:56 PM
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with some small modifications it can be expanded to about 16,600 with some club suites in the upper deck corners if you were to raise the roof and make kenndey street a tunnel i am sure it could be 17-18000 seats but it doesn't really matter because those are nose bleed seats that don't generate much revenue.Even at 15,000 seats winnipeg still generates about $800,000 a game just in ticket revenue which would put us at 15 or 16th place in league revenues. For more info go to JETSOWNER.COM it has all the info you need.
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  #67  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 6:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
So Winnipeggers (and others), for the sake of discussion, is the MTS Centre considered a plus or a liability for getting back into the NHL? Everyone says it is too small but could it be easily expanded? I say this because it would appear that playing in the MTS Centre (either as it is now or expanded) would have to be the only option. I don’t think anyone in Winnipeg is going to spend $200M for another arena after $135M was spent just five years ago on the MTS...

Also, can anyone tell me why they did not build to around 18,500 capacity in the first place, just in case? Is there that much of a cost difference between 15 and 18 thousand? Or was there some other factor?
If the NHL ever comes back to Winnipeg, IMO the deciding factor will not be the lack of a couple thousand seats in the MTS centre. The numbers will have to work with the current arena, and what can be done to increase seating revenue as it is.

The MTS centre was built the size it was because it was squished within the city block that the property encompasses.
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  #68  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 6:57 PM
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Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
with some small modifications it can be expanded to about 16,600 with some club suites in the upper deck corners if you were to raise the roof and make kenndey street a tunnel i am sure it could be 17-18000 seats but it doesn't really matter because those are nose bleed seats that don't generate much revenue.Even at 15,000 seats winnipeg still generates about $800,000 a game just in ticket revenue which would put us at 15 or 16th place in league revenues. For more info go to JETSOWNER.COM it has all the info you need.
Thanks. I was aware of the site before. It’s a bit cheerleader-ish in tone typical of Chamber of Commerce literature but it does have a lot of interesting info.

So from what you and others are saying it sounds to me like the arena question in Winnipeg is not quite a slam-dunk but probably not a deal-breaker either. I did some quick searches and it seems the MTS Centre actually has more luxury boxes than some existing NHL rinks.

There are lots of unconfirmed rumours going around, one of which emerged in Quebec today is that Gary Bettman apparently told the Quebec City folks that the existing Colisée might be OK as a temporary home for a relocated NHL club, provided there was a firm commitment to build a new building ASAP.

The story says the NHL has been scouting out potential team locations just in case certain clubs get into serious financial trouble in the medium term and have to be moved in a jiffy.
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  #69  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 7:09 PM
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I work for the local architects of the MTS centre and I know that it was not built with any capability for expansion…..i am certain this was a cost benefit thing…..the ownership group has explored the possibility of adding a row of luxury suites to one side, which would add another 500-600 seats to the capacity…they may do this expansion regardless of the NHL coming or not because there is demand for it even for the Moose.


18500 would be way too big for Winnipeg…..if the NHL requires that many seats to work Winnipeg will never get a team….i do wish that it was at least 16500…but only for the sake of perception….the reality is that it doesn’t matter….anyone who claims 15000 is too small isn’t doing their homework.


Regarding the economics of a 15500 seat arena:

Firstly if you look at the chart above, almost 1/3 of the league is drawing less than 12000 per game so immediately a sold out 15000 seat arena is 20% more profitable as it is.

Secondly, if you consider what seats are lost in the MTS centre, the revenues are not significant at all….the 1500 missing seats are at the 300 level….these would generally be priced at say $20 - $30 each…..this would mean that the lost revenue would be something in the neighbourhood of $35 000 per game…and that is if they are all sold all the time….again, you can see from the chart above that the lost revenue is not significant….certainly not prohibitive…..its the difference between making $800k per game or $835k…..its not much more than a million dollars a season……most revenue comes from lower bowl and suites.

If you use the average ticket price for the league ($52), a 15 500 seat arena would generate $800 000/game which would be in the top half of the league…..certainly enough to be viable…..if you use the average ticket prices in Edmonton (closer to $60), another smaller arena that doesn’t have thousands of low priced seats to water down the average, a 15000 seat arena would generate $930 000 per game, which is more than acceptable.

The MTS centre is definitely a positive…..both hamilton and quebec still have to convince their governments to pony up that cash (far from easy) and it will be at least 3 years before they can use it even if they put shovels in the ground today ….the MTS centre was built before the huge spike in construction costs (doubled in 5 years)…..it would easily be a $250 million dollar building today and I’m not sure that it would get done at that cost….

i suspect that whoever will locate a team in Winnipeg, they will likely crunch the numbers and come to the same conclusion, so in the end the perception that it is too small isn’t really all that important….


As an aside, the MTS centre brought the Thomson family into the mix by a twist of fate…they owned the building (eatons) that used to be on the site….in lieu of money they took shares in both the AHL team and the arena itself…..since then, they have bought out all the other partners except one….this fateful connection might be the answer to our ownership issues as it is rumoured that they are backing this group that is working to bring a team to Winnipeg….so again the MTS centre was a positive….
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  #70  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 7:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trueviking View Post
I work for the local architects of the MTS centre and I know that it was not built with any capability for expansion…..i am certain this was a cost benefit thing…..the ownership group has explored the possibility of adding a row of luxury suites to one side, which would add another 500-600 seats to the capacity…they may do this expansion regardless of the NHL coming or not because there is demand for it even for the Moose.


18500 would be way too big for Winnipeg…..if the NHL requires that many seats to work Winnipeg will never get a team….i do wish that it was at least 16500…but only for the sake of perception….the reality is that it doesn’t matter….anyone who claims 15000 is too small isn’t doing their homework.


Regarding the economics of a 15500 seat arena:

Firstly if you look at the chart above, almost 1/3 of the league is drawing less than 12000 per game so immediately a sold out 15000 seat arena is 20% more profitable as it is.

Secondly, if you consider what seats are lost in the MTS centre, the revenues are not significant at all….the 1500 missing seats are at the 300 level….these would generally be priced at say $20 - $30 each…..this would mean that the lost revenue would be something in the neighbourhood of $35 000 per game…and that is if they are all sold all the time….again, you can see from the chart above that the lost revenue is not significant….certainly not prohibitive…..its the difference between making $800k per game or $835k…..its not much more than a million dollars a season……most revenue comes from lower bowl and suites.

If you use the average ticket price for the league ($52), a 15 500 seat arena would generate $800 000/game which would be in the top half of the league…..certainly enough to be viable…..if you use the average ticket prices in Edmonton (closer to $60), another smaller arena that doesn’t have thousands of low priced seats to water down the average, a 15000 seat arena would generate $930 000 per game, which is more than acceptable.

The MTS centre is definitely a positive…..both hamilton and quebec still have to convince their governments to pony up that cash (far from easy) and it will be at least 3 years before they can use it even if they put shovels in the ground today ….the MTS centre was built before the huge spike in construction costs (doubled in 5 years)…..it would easily be a $250 million dollar building today and I’m not sure that it would get done at that cost….

i suspect that whoever will locate a team in Winnipeg, they will likely crunch the numbers and come to the same conclusion, so in the end the perception that it is too small isn’t really all that important….


As an aside, the MTS centre brought the Thomson family into the mix by a twist of fate…they owned the building (eatons) that used to be on the site….in lieu of money they took shares in both the AHL team and the arena itself…..since then, they have bought out all the other partners except one….this fateful connection might be the answer to our ownership issues as it is rumoured that they are backing this group that is working to bring a team to Winnipeg….so again the MTS centre was a positive….
I think the NHL's rule of thumb for arenas is 17,500, though it is not necessarily a hard-and-fast rule. A "cozied-up" MTS Centre wouldn't be that far off.
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  #71  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2009, 8:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
I think the NHL's rule of thumb for arenas is 17,500, though it is not necessarily a hard-and-fast rule. A "cozied-up" MTS Centre wouldn't be that far off.
The average seems to be around 18,000. Though, thanks to renovations done in 2001, Rexall Place (Oilers) only seats 16,839. Nassau Veterans (Islanders) is the smallest in the league as it seats 16,234.
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  #72  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 12:45 AM
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Originally Posted by trueviking View Post
I work for the local architects of the MTS centre and I know that it was not built with any capability for expansion…..i am certain this was a cost benefit thing…..the ownership group has explored the possibility of adding a row of luxury suites to one side, which would add another 500-600 seats to the capacity…they may do this expansion regardless of the NHL coming or not because there is demand for it even for the Moose.
Even if you could get seats in, the site is so cramped that there would be no place for more concourse space, concessions or washrooms. The NHL is never going to come to Winnipeg without a change in its mind-set, and that would have to include the idea that 18,000 seat arenas are mandatory. I would agree that the NHL could probably just make a go of it in Winnipeg with a high exchange rate, a 15,000 (barely) seat arena, and a trading market of maybe 1 million at the outside.

That rise in ticket revenue of Canadian teams between 06-07 and 07-08 must be just the exchange rate change, given that the figures are expressed in USD. It's nice, but obviously the Canadian dollar can go down as well.
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  #73  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 12:51 AM
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I would say that, optimistically, Quebec and Winnipeg will be back in the fold within 5 years. I think Southern Ontario will be in the mix in that same timeframe, but not in Hamilton. As great as a market as Hamilton is, the problem with it is not encroaching on the Leafs' territory. It's the Sabres.

Buffalo's a good hockey market, but it's a small market, and it depends a lot on Canadians to buy tickets. Hamilton would take away from that.

When it comes to US markets, there are a lot of bad ones. But the good ones - Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly, Chicago, New York, etc - you do whatever you can to protect them. Buffalo's a city that's going through very tough economic times, and at the end of the day their pro sports franchises might not survive. But it would be a rough play on the part of the NHL to plant another team right next door to them. Better to just plant another franchise in Toronto.

Also, the economics of the league need to be considered. If the trend is going to be a move back into Canadian markets, as well as into mid-sized American markets that are more hockey friendly, then the impact that will have on the salary cap needs to be considered.

Revenues and profits are good, but every cent of revenue brought in by the NHL means that the salary cap goes up. It's already at $56 million. You start plunking franchises into places where revenues will be higher (Winnipeg/Quebec/S. Ontario) than they currently are (FLA/TB/PHX/NAS/ATL) and that drives up the salary cap. Remember, it's not based on profit, it's based on revenue. So whether any of those teams actually make money in those markets is irrelevant, so long as the total revenues increase.

If the salary cap increases, that has an adverse effect on the viability of small and mid-sized markets. I mean Winnipeg and Quebec might have better economic situations than they did 15 years ago, but they aren't Toronto, Chicago, New York or even Montreal or Calgary.

Suffice it say that if the shift is towards smaller markets, the economics of the game have to reflect that otherwise the same problems will reoccur that caused the Jets/Nordiques/Whalers to leave in the first place.
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  #74  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 2:38 AM
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I'm surprised the NHL isn't looking at putting a team back in the Twin Cities. Another boner move on their end.
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  #75  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 2:52 AM
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What???
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  #76  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 3:13 AM
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St-Paul?
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  #77  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 4:25 AM
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Isn't the Wild in St Paul? (yes they are, I dunno why I'm asking)
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  #78  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 8:14 AM
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I did some quick searches and it seems the MTS Centre actually has more luxury boxes than some existing NHL rinks.
Which rinks? Cause MTS Centre has 48 suites and that is roughly 1/2 the NHL average. Even the now obsolete Rexall Centre has 56 so that would still put the MTS Centre at the bottom of the list in Canada in terms of the entire NHL, only above the rinks in the NHL built before 1990 (which currently is only a handful). That is nowhere near big enough.

For a further example, Calgary's Saddledome has 76 suites and they too want to build a new arena

Last edited by EastVanMark; Oct 14, 2009 at 8:27 AM.
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  #79  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 8:24 AM
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Even if you could get seats in, the site is so cramped that there would be no place for more concourse space, concessions or washrooms. The NHL is never going to come to Winnipeg without a change in its mind-set, and that would have to include the idea that 18,000 seat arenas are mandatory. I would agree that the NHL could probably just make a go of it in Winnipeg with a high exchange rate, a 15,000 (barely) seat arena, and a trading market of maybe 1 million at the outside.

That rise in ticket revenue of Canadian teams between 06-07 and 07-08 must be just the exchange rate change, given that the figures are expressed in USD. It's nice, but obviously the Canadian dollar can go down as well.
not to mention that ticket sales only account for about 40% of total revenues for any given team and the other 60% is from categories that the Winnipeg market would not do well in, so size of the arena is but one of many obstacles.
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  #80  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2009, 4:14 PM
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^like what?

what other categories would winnipeg do worse than phoenix, nashville, miami, atlanta, the islanders?

as for the luxury suites: the MTS centre has two double (party) suites that could be made into regular ones if they wanted, so they really have 50...and as i mentioned before, this is the one part of the arena that could be added to....and likely will be even without the NHL....most arenas in the NHL have 70 or so luxury suites....MTS could be the same with easy modification....i know for a fact that it has already been explored...ive seen the drawings.



FYI: gate reciepts int he NHL are closer to 50%....from the levitt report in 2003.

Gate receipts $997 million
Broadcasting and new media $449 million
In-arena revenues $415 million
Other hockey revenues $85 million
Total revenues $1,996 million

Last edited by trueviking; Oct 14, 2009 at 4:58 PM.
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