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  #13681  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 1:47 PM
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KnoxfordGuy KnoxfordGuy is offline
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Quarterly population estimates are out. 37,971,000 people. Population increased 76,000 the smallest increase in 5 years of quarters. All provenances and territories grew except Newfoundland which dropped .2%. The numbers will be interesting when the next quarter is released.
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  #13682  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 2:13 PM
kwoldtimer kwoldtimer is online now
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Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy View Post
Quarterly population estimates are out. 37,971,000 people. Population increased 76,000 the smallest increase in 5 years of quarters. All provenances and territories grew except Newfoundland which dropped .2%. The numbers will be interesting when the next quarter is released.
One wonders whether the population will make it to 38million in the current quarter.
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  #13683  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 2:38 PM
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JHikka JHikka is offline
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
One wonders whether the population will make it to 38million in the current quarter.
Doubtful. From today's StatCan release:

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COVID-19 arrived in Canada in January 2020 and the first death was reported on March 9, 2020. By the end of the first quarter (January 1 to March 31, 2020), COVID-19 was beginning to have an impact on Canada's population growth, but it is likely that a larger impact will be felt in the second quarter of 2020 (April 1 to June 30, 2020).
Canada also experienced the highest number of deaths ever in a quarter since tracking began in 1971 in Q1 2020, although StatCan attributes this to the aging of the population. I'm sure this combined with COVID and travel restrictions will lead to a population decrease in Q2.

Also some good interprovincial insight:

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Population exchanges between the provinces and territories (interprovincial migration) were uneven in the first quarter. Alberta (+3,123) and British Columbia (+3,247) gained in their exchanges with other provinces or territories, mainly with other Western provinces and Ontario. This is the first time since 2003 that Quebec has gained in interprovincial migration for two consecutive quarters. The greatest losses were found in Ontario (-2,507) and Saskatchewan (-3,295). For the first time in almost five years, Ontario lost population due to interprovincial migration.
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  #13684  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 3:02 PM
Zeej Zeej is offline
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Originally Posted by JHikka View Post
Doubtful. From today's StatCan release:



Canada also experienced the highest number of deaths ever in a quarter since tracking began in 1971 in Q1 2020, although StatCan attributes this to the aging of the population. I'm sure this combined with COVID and travel restrictions will lead to a population decrease in Q2.

Also some good interprovincial insight:
Very interesting interprovincial numbers. I would assume that they do not reflect people simply leaving town for "back home" during the pandemic, as officially "moving" typically involves a transfer of provincial documents (driver's license, health card etc.) and a lot of the offices - Service Ontario for example - would have been closed and not able to process these requests.

A 2,500 negative interprovincial migration balance for Ontario is somewhat unexpected, including a rare negative interprovincial balance (albeit only 16 people net loss) to Quebec.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...ers%5B0%5D=1.6
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  #13685  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2020, 2:35 AM
zahav zahav is offline
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The numbers were interesting, I too was surprsied by Ontario. There used to be a very strong correlation between economy and interprovincial flows (I've posted about this several times before). But Alberta has such a strong pull, even when their economy is down, they still draw people in. Of course they have higher incomes etc. that offset the "bad economy" label. The loss from ON to QC is surprising, and is a huge part of the reason ON went negative. Typically ON loses to BC and Alberta, gains from MB, and up and down for the rest. But it's their gains from QC that usually keep them in the black. Without those gains from them, their numbers can fall quite fast, as seen here. I am also still hoping one day StatsCan will track interprovincial movement of immigrants (esp. recent). A lot of immigrants arrive in one province and then move, accounting for (what I suspect) is a decent chunk of the numbers. Good on QC for it's two consecutive quarters of positive, it is certainly a positive trend, even if the numbers aren't massive. BC has been positive for 28 consecutive quarters, except one month in 2018 that lost 98 people. I suppose the memo keeps getting lost that BC is unlivable and no one can move here :p But the numbers would be better if it wasn't so $$$, admittedly.

The next quarter will be very interesting, I have no idea what to expect or how to compare it properly to past years. Immigration will tank probably, and assuming interprovincial migration will also suffer across the board due to people not wanting to uproot during COVID. But that's just a guess, no idea the actual reality until the stats come out in September. Anecdotally I have seen tons more AB plates around the lower mainland than ever before, but no idea if those are people who moved, or are vacationers, or maybe just people who left to AB before and are just back to be with family? Anyone's guess!
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  #13686  
Old Posted Jun 30, 2020, 1:33 PM
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GDP fell 11.6% in April from March (less than the expected 13%). Expected to regain 3% in May.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...-eng.htm?HPA=1
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