Select MSAs; Working from Home vs Public Transit, 2019 & 2021

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Trae

^^^that's not really a problem. you don't need to build new towers right now. more than enough empty office space to convert to residential first

Not what I'm hearing. Conversions are really hard, worse than new construction in many cases, particularly in seismic zones. The gist of what I'm hearing in Seattle is that the building needs to be at a fire-sale price.

Even if it was easy, why wait two years to start a project when demand exists now and projects are ready to go?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

The cuts are maybe five percent. Only a fraction of what's been added during Covid.

Of course even 0% would be a hit vs. continuous heavy growth, so it's significant, but it's still not that massive.

One upside is that other firms can finally find people if they still want them. And some grads will start new businesses. Layoffs are a gold mine long-term.

Office space might be a problem though. Especially since we keep starting new buildings.

Anecdotally, the Google and Microsoft cuts appear to be focused on the top of the pay scale. I'm seeing a lot of people who had been in their jobs 10+ years talk of being let go. Either way, this will definitely cool the tech cities off for a bit. Not saying they will turn into the Rust Belt, but we'll likely see some softer growth and real estate price increases on the West Coast.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Anecdotally, the Google and Microsoft cuts appear to be focused on the top of the pay scale. I'm seeing a lot of people who had been in their jobs 10+ years talk of being let go. Either way, this will definitely cool the tech cities off for a bit. Not saying they will turn into the Rust Belt, but we'll likely see some softer growth and real estate price increases on the West Coast.

i know of at least one local ex-microsoft employee who was an extremely well paid director of sales (300k+) who was let go about 6 months back. that seems to align with what you're saying (culling at the top)

[homebucket]

Mmhm. A lot of the Meta and Google employees that got laid off were making 500-1000k a year.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Anecdotally, the Google and Microsoft cuts appear to be focused on the top of the pay scale. I'm seeing a lot of people who had been in their jobs 10+ years talk of being let go. Either way, this will definitely cool the tech cities off for a bit. Not saying they will turn into the Rust Belt, but we'll likely see some softer growth and real estate price increases on the West Coast.

Probably, in the short term. But those people might tend to have decent net worths so they can handle some down time. And many will be qualified and able to start new companies, or help other people's new companies.

[jd3189]

^^^ If that's the case, that's probably the best example of laying off I would accept. If I had to choose between a high earner who already has savings, property, investments, etc over a low income laborer who has little if anything to supplement a lost job, I would fire the former.

Edit: but this is ultimately a catch-22. I heard many of those workers were long tenured. Gave their heart and soul to the company and rose up through the ranks. Did it fairly, by merit, followed the American dream. Yet they still can use their job. It sucks. But, hey, it’s better than just keeping everyone employed but taking a hit with profits having to be taken from the earnings of executives and shareholders. You would rather objectively ruin someone’s life taking away what is often their main source of income just so you can satisfy individuals who don’t need to work for a living. Damn, business is cutthroat

Greed is just as bad as envy. In fact, they’re two sides of the same coin.