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  #421  
Old Posted May 29, 2019, 9:25 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is online now
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Gonna go out on a limb here, but I bet Toronto is one of the more dangerous cities in Canada... There is a lot wrong with the conclusion that urban crime affects metro population growth, but including Toronto to make a point about growth rates in American metros is just downright ridiculous.

A quick Google search would put this all to bed. The 10 MSAs with the largest numeric growth since 2010 are in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, California, plus Seattle and D.C. Weather could be a coincidence, but it is pretty obvious what those states have in common.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...nty-metro.html
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  #422  
Old Posted May 29, 2019, 9:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
The old weather debate.

Can't we all just agree that weather isn't the biggest issue in moving to a city but it plays a secondary role?
i think it varies from person to person.

i have many relatives who now live in places like arizona, texas, and florida and every single one of them would say that the #1 reason they moved away from chicago was winter.

i also have a handful of cousins in cali, NYC, and DC who all moved from chicago for career.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; May 29, 2019 at 9:44 PM.
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  #423  
Old Posted May 29, 2019, 9:47 PM
Vlajos Vlajos is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
2018 homicides:

kansas city: 136 / 491,918 = 27.65 per 100,000

chicago: 561 / 2,705,994 = 20.74 per 100,000

cincinnati: 61 / 302,601 = 20.16 per 100,000

indianpolis: 159 / 863,002 = 18.42 per 100,000


if you're gonna paint chicago with the "OMG! crime is so out of control" brush, then KC, cincy and indy belong on that canvas as well.

but why let facts get in the way of our impressions.......
2018
DC: 162 /702,455 = 23.07 per 100,000
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  #424  
Old Posted May 29, 2019, 9:56 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Migration to where? Back up north? Midwest? They're getting more expensive too. I think higher cost of living will be the new normal and it already is. Houston is far more expensive than it was 20 years ago but there's at least another million or so here.
Anywhere? Somewhere in Nebraska, Alabama, Arkansas, New Mexico? Somewhere else within Tennessee.
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  #425  
Old Posted May 29, 2019, 11:24 PM
wwmiv wwmiv is offline
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
reputations for crime

Weather has little to do with growth in the modern period.
I'm going to quote myself here.

The key variable I was meaning, although I wasn't near as explicit as I clearly should have been is IMPRESSIONS or REPUTATIONS for crime, not ACTUAL crime levels (although impressions are informed by actual crime levels). Perhaps why El Paso isn't growing is partially because it has a longstanding impression of crime, despite the fact that it is safe.

Weather has LITTLE to do with growth, which is distinct from NOTHING to do with growth.

I'd agree with the postulation by jtown,man that the list of priorities is something like the following, but I'd add in crime:

jobs
family
cost of living
reputation of safety v. crime
weather
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ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)
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  #426  
Old Posted May 29, 2019, 11:52 PM
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From family of mine who've left chicagoland, the top 3 reasons seem to be:

1. Weather
2. Career
3. Cost/taxes


From my friends/colleagues who've left Chicagoland, the top 3 reasons seem to be:

1. "Be closer to my mom" (after having 1st child)
2. Career
3. Weather


I can't think of a single person I've known who ever mentioned crime (real or perceived) in their reasoning for leaving chicagoland. I think crime as a push factor works much more at the micro level, as in it's a big reason why the city is seeing so much black flight to the burbs these days, but as a reason for leaving the metro area altogether, I can't imagine it would factor in too heavily. at least not against much bigger push factors like taxes or winter.

You don't have to move all the way to Texas to escape englewood's notorious violent crime. Bolingbrook is far enough.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; May 30, 2019 at 12:19 AM.
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  #427  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 1:32 AM
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
Anywhere? Somewhere in Nebraska, Alabama, Arkansas, New Mexico? Somewhere else within Tennessee.
And do what? There aren't very many economic centers in these states. There's a reason cost of living are low there. There's not a lot of career opportunities and wages are pretty stagnant.
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  #428  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 1:37 AM
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funnily weather/climate/geography has been huge in my friend group, usually st. louis is too hot...a lot of the people that moved away to chicago or coasts are back with the exception of southern california transplants and denver (cooler/ less humid)...
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  #429  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 1:51 AM
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
I think weather plays a bigger role for retirees and maybe some younger folks, but not most. The biggest factor on growth is job availability and cost of living.
I think that makes sense. Some younger people may move somewhere for less than reasonable rationales. While older people, assuming they saved up enough etc., have the choice to move anywhere. The "smart" move is for them to move to a state/city that is affordable and has "good" weather(whatever that may be, although it seems hot is the preference). My dad is so typical, he has lived all over the world and has been in DC for the last 9 years. He is counting down the days for his retirement(he LOVES his job, but hates DC) and his eventual move to Tampa.

He likes low taxes, cheap housing, going to the beach and all that crap. He'll be happy. I wouldn't.
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  #430  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 5:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
ditto for indy.
Both Kansas City and Indianapolis have some of the highest crime rates in the Midwest. It’s not just Chicago, St Louis and Detroit as many people believe.
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  #431  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 2:02 PM
Ant131531 Ant131531 is online now
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Most people who move for "crime reasons" mostly move within a metro moreso than move out of it.

Family, Weather, and Job relocation are likely your three biggest reasons. COL replaces Job relocation if you're in a super expensive metro area.
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  #432  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 2:13 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
funnily weather/climate/geography has been huge in my friend group, usually st. louis is too hot...a lot of the people that moved away to chicago or coasts are back with the exception of southern california transplants and denver (cooler/ less humid)...
The impression I've had of St Louis for my whole life(living about 4 hours away) was that it had some of the worst of all worlds. You guys got way more snow and winter weather than we did south of you(just north of Memphis) but you guys also got really hot and humid summers.

I don't even know if this is true, but it seemed true, so to this day I see St louis this way.
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  #433  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 2:31 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
And do what? There aren't very many economic centers in these states. There's a reason cost of living are low there. There's not a lot of career opportunities and wages are pretty stagnant.
You could say the same thing about Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, or any other maturing metro 30+ years ago. Most professions or jobs aren’t tied to a single metro or state. Places and the people who live there change constantly.
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  #434  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 3:22 PM
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You could say the same thing about Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, or any other maturing metro 30+ years ago. Most professions or jobs aren’t tied to a single metro or state. Places and the people who live there change constantly.
When my mom was thinking about leaving New York ~35 years ago, most told her to move to cities like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta because they were booming. That really hasn't changed even if these cities have matured somewhat. They along with a handful of others are still the "it" cities as terms of rapid growth and development and I do think the rapid growth will taper off eventually but barring any unforeseen event, I don't see the Sunbelt emptying out the way the north did 50 years ago. Their economies are better hedged against economic uncertainty...as are those up north.
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  #435  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 3:29 PM
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^ uhh those cities already did hallow out, Atlanta's core density is nothing compared to what it was. There's also plenty of urban prairie esque areas near the city center. This is also true for Houston. Really has nothing to do with economy.
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  #436  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 3:41 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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I wouldn’t argue they’ll hollow out or that people will “flee” or become “refugees”, but I do think domestic migration will likely turn negative and that it’ll happen sooner than later. Isn’t that already happening in core counties? Immigration and natural increases may keep the population growing, but I don’t think that’ll be at 10% YoY. My guess is it’d be in the 0-3% range.
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  #437  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 4:30 PM
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^ I agree. The double digit growth is unsustainable...which is still the case even in the core city/ county unfortunately. Harris County was up over 10% during the last count. Houston itself dipped in growth due to oil sector.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The North One View Post
^ uhh those cities already did hallow out, Atlanta's core density is nothing compared to what it was. There's also plenty of urban prairie esque areas near the city center. This is also true for Houston. Really has nothing to do with economy.
Yeah, Atlanta proper did lose a lot of people in the 70's (I suspect white flight to the suburbs) but Atlanta as a whole continued to boom like crazy and grow into one of the largest metros in the country. No comparison to major metros up north where not only the cities hemorrhaged people but the metro areas saw a significant decrease or stagnated. You're not going to try to convince me that Atlanta went through the same plight as a city like Detroit or St. Louis are you?

As for Houston, what hollow areas? Do you mean poor areas? Un(der)developed areas?
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  #438  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 4:32 PM
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I wonder what will happen if every metro area becomes too expensive. Will we be priced out of the country?
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  #439  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 5:27 PM
Ant131531 Ant131531 is online now
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
I wouldn’t argue they’ll hollow out or that people will “flee” or become “refugees”, but I do think domestic migration will likely turn negative and that it’ll happen sooner than later. Isn’t that already happening in core counties? Immigration and natural increases may keep the population growing, but I don’t think that’ll be at 10% YoY. My guess is it’d be in the 0-3% range.
Houston already has negative domestic migration....the entire metro. It's growing solely off of natural increase and international migration. Dallas/Atlanta still have solid domestic migration though.
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  #440  
Old Posted May 30, 2019, 5:37 PM
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I think most (if not all) major metros in the Northeast and Midwest have doubled in size since the 50s/60s. Pittsburgh, Upstate NY, and parts of New England are the exceptions IIRC. Pittsburgh has been pretty flat since the 1950s.

There’s plenty of space in the US for more people, but since we don’t like to build at higher densities, it seems we’re on track for a good number of 5-10m person metros. NYC and LA may grow to or sustain populations >20m. Chicago may get to 12-15m. Dallas could potentially get somewhere near that as well. I could see Minneapolis maturing in the 5-10m range. Nashville, NC Triangle, Columbus, St Louis, and the interior western metros are all primed to siphon growth from secondary metropolitan areas IMO.
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