SAN DIEGO | Boom Rundown, Vol. 2

[Streamliner]

Originally Posted by HurricaneHugo

Coronado Bridge Light testing:

Looks good for a test. I'm a fan of the blue, it's fitting and seems to be brighter, at least in this image. Do we know if all pylons will be lit up or just a few of the major ones? I'd like to see every pylon, even the smaller ones at the edges, lit up.

[mello]

This long ago approved and thought dead development seems to be starting. I remember it being rather tall for Little Italy and it is almost a full block long. Construction fencing was up, lot was scrapped (not down to dirt yet) and heavy equipment was parked in the North end of parcel. Lets hope this isnt a false start like Street Lights tower in East Village which was cleared 8 months ago but no digging.

[dl3000]

Originally Posted by mello

I think the post office development on Midway is dead, that was approved two and a half years ago and we have never heard any updates on it.

This is what I was going by, but true, the site could sit vacant forever. If anything in the area gets off the ground, this is a potentially high-value opportunity that I hope isn't squandered (yeah, that's asking a lot).

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/loc...ffice/2360844/

[mello]

Thanks for sharing the link dl3000 looks like they have transitioned that project to being more residential in nature which makes sense. Office space growth other than for Biotech, where more people have to come in to work because of labs and the innovative nature of the industry, is going to be dead for years to come.

Hopefully we get an announcement soon telling us what the housing proposal there actually is. --- In other news the Riverwalk Golfcourse development at the West end of Mission Valley should be approved today by the city council and ground breaking would commence this Summer 21

[S.DviaPhilly]

"The Kilroy East Village project will use the two blocks bounded by Broadway, E Street, Park Blvd. and 14th Street for a tech or life science campus"

This would be very very exciting for those blocks of East Village!


https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...ppxZlZo9Rf3SMA

[dirt patch]

Trammel breaks ground on Little Italy 36 story tower tomorrow.

[mello]

Its pretty crazy how many projects are moving forward with the massive economic uncertainty that is looming. You have all these biotech projects in DT and UTC.

Post office project in Midway, Alexandria set to start another Biotech building across from One Paseo in Del Mar. The crane has been up with consturtion well under way at Aperture Del Mar at hwy 56 and Carmel Valley Rd.

River Walk Mission Valley on west side of MV and the approved Mission Gorge redo on east end of MV replacing tow yards with close to 2000 units, maybe a bit more, and is approved and hopefully start soon.

The big residential development on West Side of Mira Mesa that is 1800 units i believe and they have begun.

Alexan Little Italy and the one at Hawthorne and State I just mentioned. SD is booming right now, hopefully all this momentum against headwinds can get 7th and Market off the ground as that tower will do wonders for the skyline and fill in gaps from multiple angles.

[Dale]

Originally Posted by mello

Its pretty crazy how many projects are moving forward with the massive economic uncertainty that is looming. You have all these biotech projects in DT and UTC.

Post office project in Midway, Alexandria set to start another Biotech building across from One Paseo in Del Mar. The crane has been up with consturtion well under way at Aperture Del Mar at hwy 56 and Carmel Valley Rd.

River Walk Mission Valley on west side of MV and the approved Mission Gorge redo on east end of MV replacing tow yards with close to 2000 units, maybe a bit more, and is approved and hopefully start soon.

The big residential development on West Side of Mira Mesa that is 1800 units i believe and they have begun.

Alexan Little Italy and the one at Hawthorne and State I just mentioned. SD is booming right now, hopefully all this momentum against headwinds can get 7th and Market off the ground as that tower will do wonders for the skyline and fill in gaps from multiple angles.

It is mind-boggling. 2007-08 wasn’t nearly as bad a contraction as this. But projects shriveled on the vine.

[dirt patch]

Perpetual housing shortages in the root cause of this boom. Even though there is vacancy in downtown housing, long term: housing still so badly needed. SD is lucky to have deep pocket developers willing to build towers regardless of the market and demand. They don't announce projects and or keep planning like they do in other cities. They just sh$%t up and build here. They mostly do the walking, not talking.

[mello]

Originally Posted by dirt patch

Perpetual housing shortages in the root cause of this boom. Even though there is vacancy in downtown housing, long term: housing still so badly needed. SD is lucky to have deep pocket developers willing to build towers regardless of the market and demand. They don't announce projects and or keep planning like they do in other cities. They just sh$%t up and build here. They mostly do the walking, not talking.

My post was referring more to the boom in Biotech Office space construction. Downtown really doesn't have that many residential towers getting underway right now. Yes we got the Alexan Little Italy and one tower in Cortez Hill which I forget if it is a residential or hotel.

You are right about the housing demand. Let's see if the Mission Gorge (I checked 1000 units not 2k on 23 acres), Riverwalk, and Mira Mesa projects move forward full steam pumping out lots of units or if they take a slower more phased approach like Civita has done.

Is Civita as far along as you guys would have expected after 12 years or did you think it would be more built out at this point?

[HurricaneHugo]

Skyline postcard from 1985 via Reddit

[mello]

Will O Wisp or anyone else with info, what is the status of this major project? 2021 will be here before we know it is our lovely 3rd World Terminal 1 going bye bye soon?

[Will O' Wisp]

Originally Posted by mello

Will O Wisp or anyone else with info, what is the status of this major project? 2021 will be here before we know it is our lovely 3rd World Terminal 1 going bye bye soon?

As of right now everything is moving ahead relatively smoothly. Old T1 will be decommissioned in Q1 2025.



Only potential sticking point is the financing, but the bond issuance will be in mid to late 2021. Economy will likely be in a very different place by then.

[mello]

So construction isn't going to start until Q1 2022, jeez this thing is really lagging. When you say economy being in a different place by then you mean magically it will all just be better or it will be in a much worse place?

Don't you see huge budget deficits for municipalities after a full year of way lower TOT revenues, no conventions, etc?

-------

Speaking of another massive project it looks like the Chula Vista Bayfront Hotel and CC will be breaking ground Q2 next year

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...ing-port-commi

[Will O' Wisp]

Originally Posted by mello

So construction isn't going to start until Q1 2022, jeez this thing is really lagging. When you say economy being in a different place by then you mean magically it will all just be better or it will be in a much worse place?

Don't you see huge budget deficits for municipalities after a full year of way lower TOT revenues, no conventions, etc?

It's actually only been delayed by ~6 months, and factors outside of COVID had a lot to do with that. Compare the timeline above to this one from summer 2019.



We're anticipating the economy/travel market to be in a better spot by late 2021 because it looks like one or more COVID vaccines will be in widespread circulation by then. But only time can tell.

SDIA is not run by a municipality, we don't take in tax dollars. Instead the airport funds itself though a combination of user fees (we take a % of every ticket sold and every sale made from our concessionaires) and direct funding from the airlines. The latter is most relevant to this conversation, user fees often don't even fully cover normal operations much less new construction. SDIA signed a lease agreement with the airlines in the summer of 2019, in which the airlines agreed to cover all the airport's residual costs after collecting user fees for the next 20 years. This includes the cost of building the new terminal. That agreement remains in effect, so unless the airlines go bankrupt there will be money for the new terminal.

In late 2021 the airport will try and issue revenue bonds to borrow against that future income. Because airport revenue is guaranteed by lease agreement with the airlines, historically airport revenue bonds have been considered rock solid investments with very low interest rates. With COVID the math on that is harder to figure, but things are looking optimistic. Definitely more optimistic than in April...

[SamFlood]

Some Pics of Downtown activity Nov. 28
Little Italy office on Kettner



3rd and A



11th Broadway


Manchester Broadway excavating

[dl3000]

Originally Posted by Will O' Wisp

It's actually only been delayed by ~6 months, and factors outside of COVID had a lot to do with that. Compare the timeline above to this one from summer 2019.



We're anticipating the economy/travel market to be in a better spot by late 2021 because it looks like one or more COVID vaccines will be in widespread circulation by then. But only time can tell.

SDIA is not run by a municipality, we don't take in tax dollars. Instead the airport funds itself though a combination of user fees (we take a % of every ticket sold and every sale made from our concessionaires) and direct funding from the airlines. The latter is most relevant to this conversation, user fees often don't even fully cover normal operations much less new construction. SDIA signed a lease agreement with the airlines in the summer of 2019, in which the airlines agreed to cover all the airport's residual costs after collecting user fees for the next 20 years. This includes the cost of building the new terminal. That agreement remains in effect, so unless the airlines go bankrupt there will be money for the new terminal.

In late 2021 the airport will try and issue revenue bonds to borrow against that future income. Because airport revenue is guaranteed by lease agreement with the airlines, historically airport revenue bonds have been considered rock solid investments with very low interest rates. With COVID the math on that is harder to figure, but things are looking optimistic. Definitely more optimistic than in April...

Are there any considerations for potential federal infrastructure stimulus money?

[Will O' Wisp]

Originally Posted by dl3000

Are there any considerations for potential federal infrastructure stimulus money?

Fed money would be nice, but you can't count on it. Don't get me wrong, SDIA is going to apply for whatever it can but in this environment there is going to be a massive amount of competition for every dollar of federal grants. And that's if there is even stimulus money to be had.

[SDfan]

Thanks, SamFlood! I like how you framed 11th & B in the xmas tree lights lol

[Streamliner]

Originally Posted by SamFlood

Some Pics of Downtown activity Nov. 28
Little Italy office on Kettner

I really like this mid-rise office building in Little Italy, it'll bring some diversity in land uses to that neighborhood.

And that Office Depot needs to be replaced ASAP. It's hilariously out of place.