Post-covid, will the narrative on urban planning become favorable again??

[llamaorama]

So go with me on this.

I remember in the late 2000s when I first developed an interest in the development and history of places as a teenager and then lurked on and then joined this forum, the discussion of urbanism had a different tone. More idealistic, maybe?

For one, there were a lot more articles being shared and talk about the need to create strong neighborhoods in cities even if it took zoning, public subsidies, and citizens becoming active in favoring or opposing development based on quality. Also I think green urbanism was a bigger imperative then. Finally that was the peak of the millenial hipster fad. I think back then there was also still momentum behind 1980s/1990s initiatives to boost downtowns like pro sports arenas, light rail, convention centers, etc, etc where the premise was that we need to put active effort into things to make cities better.

But then I think the huge rent/cost of living spike and resultant anxiety about gentrification is what changed everything. The hipster fad also sort of faded out. This would have been maybe 2012 or 2013? Basically cities became victims of their own success.

For the past several years everything has been about the "YIMBY" movement, market urbanism, abolishing zoning, etc. All development is good because we have an affordable housing crisis. Etc. In that context fundamental quality of life aspects and idealistic planning and architecture concepts go out the window. Just build, anything, etc. Also during this same time frame I think maybe public perception of cities got a little more sour again - excessive rents, homelessness problems, and then of course the whole culture war following the 2016 election.

Now with Coronavirus I feel like someone suddenly slammed on the brakes and things are going to shift again, IMO. If growth in high paid white collar employment in large cities decreases due to work-from-home, then gentrification may slow or reverse in some places. It's possible that in the short to medium term economic crisis, there is going to be a lot of vacancies and a deadening of central business districts that only 8 months ago were booming. It's also going to take a really long time for all the urban restaurants, bars, and retail to recover.

So that brings me to my point, if there's a huge drop in demand for urban living and a halt in new proposals and construction for maybe the next 2-3 years and when the recovery finishes its only partial and the boom never returns, then what?

IMO, maybe its going to be a blast from the past? Like the 90s and before, the conversation will shift again towards what it might take to attract and retain people in cities. We could go back to caring about good street-level environments and design. And hopefully maybe cities will adapt and become cool again as rents fall and landlords wish to fill spaces?

Just my 2c

[Qubert]

My thoughts:

1) If many urban areas do in fact see a hollowing out of retail/cultural establishments along with loss of job concentration, you might see the conversation on gentrification shift from the current ideological zeitgeist of "Keep out the rich/yuppies" to the more intergrationalist stance of "Let's try to have everyone live together" that's more prevalent in Europe.

2) Post-George Floyd, how urban areas deal with policing will be the make or break moment. The good side of things is for the first time in our nations history there is a broad bi-partisan support for reform. On the down side this moment is inevitably going to be used by the most ideological to somehow argue for a wholesale dismantling of criminal justice. Long story short, if we witness a collapse in public order, that even more than coronavirus will effectively end the urban renaissance we have seen post 1980s.