Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
It will be very interesting to see what happens to cars themselves in the next 20 years.
The reason cars have shrunk over the last 40 years is not due to people all of a sudden wanting to travel in a sardine can but rather due to stricter emissions and mileage requirements. By 2035 there will be no more ice vehicles for sale in Canada and hence the need for lighter and smaller cars completely disappears. Due to this maybe we will see the return of the monster cars of the post-war to 1970s period.
With the potential of far larger cars we could see a decline in the SUV segment and a resurgence of the good old car as the space advantage of SUVs begins to disappear. For those who think the SUV will live forever, that's what everyone said about the min-van craze of the 80s & 90s. Styles come and go and cars are no different. It makes you wonder what the traditional "Big 3" are going to do now that they have effectively withdrawn from the car market and abdicated the entire sector over to the imports.
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Cars are larger than ever. The nadir for car size might have been the early 1980s - about 40 years ago. I recall cruising along in my Mazda3 next to late '80s Chevrolet Caprice recently and was shocked to see how close in size my 'compact' was to a 'full-size' of that era.
Sure, my little 2.0L engine probably made as much horsepower as that Chevrolet 305 small-block V8, but the point remains. I saw a Chevette recently for sale. There's a small car. I don't think anything for sale today other than a Mitsubishi Mirage comes even close to being that small.
I suspect the small-midsize SUV style will remain popular. Why? Partly due to battery placement. A higher-riding vehicle allows more room for battery placement relative to a low sedan. Second, the 'lower, wider, longer' thing was a '50s-'70s anomaly. People prefer to drive a vehicle like they sit in a dining room chair. No squatting down to get in, no hiking upwards to get out. Just slide sideways. Finally, with crash standards requiring thick pillars, a higher riding vehicle has increased visibility, except for right in front of it.
Do I think the monster truck thing will end? Yeah, probably. There's a reason the new Ford Ranger/Chevrolet Colorado (akin to the full-size trucks of yore) have taken off in popularity.