Halifax Population & Growth

[egb]

The other interesting subplot of the population boom is the impact on aging. It’s taken as a given that Nova Scotia has an aging population but that really hasn’t been true for almost half a decade. Last year the median age in Nova Scotia was 44.2 which is down from 45.1 in 2018. It's the youngest Nova Scotia has been since 2013. For Halifax, the median age is 39, which is down from 40.5 in 2015 and it’s the youngest the city has been since 2008.

The real fly in the ointment is when you look outside of Halifax. Last year, pretty miraculously, median ages’ dropped or stalled in basically every census division in Nova Scotia but the underlying age curves in most counties are still pretty bad. Here is the age chart for Halifax and the rest of Nova Scotia:

https://imgur.com/2RtDlw3

The counties in a ring around Halifax will probably be able manage pretty well with spillover growth from the city but the western and eastern parts of the province are still in tough even if they stop actively shrinking over the next few years.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Perhaps local politics is swaying the numbers. Sean Fraser is from N.S. and being Immigration minister perhaps numbers are being directed East. MTV can't take everyone.

In Newfoundland and Labrador we had record immigration in the first quarter of 2023. a major reason for this was because in 2022 we we reached our federal immigration numbers two months early. In January, the province sent the largest number of applications to the federal government as they had been processed and held until the new year. Our capacity for newcomers has since increased, so we probably won’t see a similar situation Tim the future.

However, not sure if this is occurring elsewhere and therefore numbers in the beginning of the year end up being higher.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

In Newfoundland and Labrador we had record immigration in the first quarter of 2023. a major reason for this was because in 2022 we we reached our federal immigration numbers two months early. In January, the province sent the largest number of applications to the federal government as they had been processed and held until the new year. Our capacity for newcomers has since increased, so we probably won’t see a similar situation Tim the future.

However, not sure if this is occurring elsewhere and therefore numbers in the beginning of the year end up being higher.

Am I correct in reading that Newfoundland has had an exceptional influx of Ukrainian refugees? Hard workers and very focussed.A cousin of mine in the Dartmouth area runs the Provincial (NS) job settlement office and his folks have been assigned job placements for the NS Ukrainians. Every client has landed a job within two weeks of being in Canada.

More please.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

More please.

Indeed. Ukrainian immigrants are very hard working and easily assimilable. They are most welcome.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Am I correct in reading that Newfoundland has had an exceptional influx of Ukrainian refugees? Hard workers and very focussed.A cousin of mine in the Dartmouth area runs the Provincial (NS) job settlement office and his folks have been assigned job placements for the NS Ukrainians. Every client has landed a job within two weeks of being in Canada.

More please.

In March there had been roughly 2,300 Ukrainians settle in the province, most of whom had come here on their own and not through government sponsored flights. In December it was estimated that 1,600 had come to the province so the number is still growing rather fast. The government has recently been pushing for Ukrainians to settle in Corner Brook and the west coast due to labour needs and easier access to affordable housing (and probably because the Immigration Minister is from Corner Brook). I believe at one point it was reported that about half of the Ukrainians who arrived were living outside the St. John’s area, if that trend continues it could be particularly beneficial for the viability of smaller towns in NL.

[beyeas]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...boom-1.6899752

Interesting article with lots of data on the population growth in NS. It’s a great thing, but the challenges are also obvious. Interestingly the part that gets the most airtime - housing cost - is the one where government can frankly have the least impact. To me, the two that they need to solve is access to primary care physicians (partly under their control) and improved public transport (fully under their control). Ironically then, given it’s a problem that’s within their power to solve, I see no unified vision for public transport coming from in particular the provincial government. As many have noted here these things are years in the making and so planning needs to have started years ago, with our municipal and provincial governments working together to think big rather than small and ready to pounce when federal funds are available. That one’s a problem they could actually solve!

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

The above link is to the Joint Regional Transportation Agency website. I just visited the site myself for the first time. I see there is a button for submitting ideas. There's also a timeline indicating that there will be a final plan in the fall of 2024.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Arrdeeharharharbour

The above link is to the Joint Regional Transportation Agency website. I just visited the site myself for the first time. I see there is a button for submitting ideas. There's also a timeline indicating that there will be a final plan in the fall of 2024.

I’m glad this is happening, and I’ve heard rumblings that smart people are involved in this. But next fall just to get the plan in place? The city is sitting on its rapid transit plans right now and presumably waiting to see what this means fly that. All will be forgiven, I guess, if the JRTA comes out with something excellent. If it’s just “moar rodes” the extra wait will just make it extra disappointing.

[someone123]

It probably means nothing but the focus on the website on the usual NS lighthouse pictures and talk about how large an area and how many different far-flung communities will be covered does not give me confidence. To come up with a good plan they will have to consider larger capital outlays and a wider range of solutions than what the province and municipality have considered in the past. The transportation plan will have to be coordinated with land use and zoning and accept that a one-size-fits-all approach won't work and the transit potential in the urban core is dramatically higher than elsewhere.

If the current growth continues, moar rodes aside, I don't think even moar buses will work well. More capacity will be needed eventually, beyond the low-hanging fruit of tinkering with lane markings and signaling. One of the advantages of the ferry plan is that it would add new capacity (commuter rail would have too).

[egb]

Originally Posted by someone123

It probably means nothing but the focus on the website on the usual NS lighthouse pictures and talk about how large an area and how many different far-flung communities will be covered does not give me confidence. To come up with a good plan they will have to consider larger capital outlays and a wider range of solutions than what the province and municipality have considered in the past. The transportation plan will have to be coordinated with land use and zoning and accept that a one-size-fits-all approach won't work and the transit potential in the urban core is dramatically higher than elsewhere.

If the current growth continues, moar rodes aside, I don't think even moar buses will work well. More capacity will be needed eventually, beyond the low-hanging fruit of tinkering with lane markings and signaling. One of the advantages of the ferry plan is that it would add new capacity (commuter rail would have too).

I was initially kind of down on JRTA but I started thinking about it from a political point of view and I think it makes more sense than I gave it credit for.

Lets pretend that one of their recommendations is a GO bus type service from one or more of Bridgewater/Valley/Truro. For that service to be viable at all, there is going to have to be strong BRT lanes in Halifax. I think Halifax's BRT proposal has struggled in part because a big Halifax specific investment is a tough sell provincially. If you expand the beneficiaries of that investment though, its starts to look more viable.

In terms of capacity, I think people really undersell BRT. If you have a few lines running with 15 min service. Increasing that to 10-min service is a huge capacity gain for relatively little outlay. Ferries are great and I'm glad we're doing them but the economics are always going to be kind of rough because your catchment area is restricted since half of the surrounding area is water.

Completely agree on the need to pair it with land use though, I would be very surprised if they didn't touch on that.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Maritime Bus seems to have the inter-city(community) travel well under control:

Screenshot 2023-07-31 4.37.12 PM by AJ Forsythe, on Flickr

One of my nephews visiting from Vancouver this summer used the bus service between Halifax and Bridgewater on a few occasions and thought it fine other than the issue of how do you get to your final destination upon arrival in your destination community. Upon arrival in Halifax he used Uber rather than public transit. The Uber use inspite of the fact that city bus service could have delivered him to within 400 meters of my house. He, like many (most?) doesn't much care for city buses.

If BRT could use coach-style buses and avoid train track crossing stops, bridges, intersections, bicycles and pedestrian crossing then perhaps it could work.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by egb

I was initially kind of down on JRTA but I started thinking about it from a political point of view and I think it makes more sense than I gave it credit for.

I agree with this, and one of the JRTA’s five “priority areas” is higher-order transit. They consider BRT to be higher-order, which is debatable, but again, it suggests that urban transit needs are under consideration. It also talks about rail as one of several “future solutions.” At this point it’s hard to say what will come of it—I’m prepared for anything from “huge disappointment” to “total game-changer.”

[someone123]

I think BRT can be good and there's nothing wrong with contemplating expanding transit service to places like Wolfville. The open question is where the balance will end up. If it just ends up being like the HRM BRT plan but with more routes going farther out, as an example, that will probably not be enough on its own to keep up with growth in the next decade or two.

One thing this authority could do is try to coordinate more between different projects like bridge and freeway expansions. A transit lane along the 102 corridor with a dedicated connection to Bayers and a harbour crossing would be useful.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think BRT can be good and there's nothing wrong with contemplating expanding transit service to places like Wolfville. The open question is where the balance will end up. If it just ends up being like the HRM BRT plan but with more routes going farther out, as an example, that will probably not be enough on its own to keep up with growth in the next decade or two.

One thing this authority could do is try to coordinate more between different projects like bridge and freeway expansions. A transit lane along the 102 corridor with a dedicated connection to Bayers and a harbour crossing would be useful.

A story on CBC NS noted that the BLT trail suffered damage in the heavy rains 10 days ago and needs provincial money to fund significant repairs:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...arns-1.6921401

This would be an opportunity to right the wrong that was done years ago and restore it to a more significant right of way for buses or other modes of transit to move volumes of people from Tantallon to the peninsula. As a former rail ROW it has far more potential than just a trail. You could keep a version of that in place alongside but use it for far more productive purposes.

[IanWatson]

I think the biggest potential benefit of the JRTA will be for the East Hants corridor. There are only so many times you can slap on the bandaid of extended exit lanes at Fall River and Enfield before it becomes untenable.

[q12]

Nova Scotia hit 1,060,000 on August 1st on the Stats Canada population clock.

Halifax CMA is now likely in the 530,000 range as of August 1st, well on it's way to 600,000 in the very near future.

[someone123]

It's possible 2022-2023 population growth for Halifax will be higher than 2021-2022. The estimate for NS is +40,000 in the past year: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

[terrynorthend]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's possible 2022-2023 population growth for Halifax will be higher than 2021-2022. The estimate for NS is +40,000 in the past year: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

Interesting. Is this data based on an undercount?
It has NS well short if the 1.06 million showing on the clock, and has Canada as a whole less than 40M

[kzt79]

Originally Posted by q12

Nova Scotia hit 1,060,000 on August 1st on the Stats Canada population clock.

Halifax CMA is now likely in the 530,000 range as of August 1st, well on it's way to 600,000 in the very near future.

I wonder what the ratio is of new housing per new household/family unit... I am guessing well below 1!

[fatscat]

This is a good chart on that topic:



(via https://twitter.com/DenySully/status...23293122347008)