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  #501  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2013, 12:48 PM
movingtohamilton movingtohamilton is offline
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A sellers real estate market in Hamilton

It's a sellers market this spring in Hamilton. A Lack of listings and bidding wars.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/32...ng-gone-crazy/
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  #502  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2013, 3:49 PM
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And yet I see the same houses sitting unsold after months and a few open houses.

Sounds like typical realtor BS to me.
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  #503  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2013, 5:26 PM
movingtohamilton movingtohamilton is offline
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Originally Posted by Berklon View Post
And yet I see the same houses sitting unsold after months and a few open houses.

Sounds like typical realtor BS to me.
We need to separate our own anecdotes from aggregate data. In my neighbourhood (according to the article, I live in Hamilton Centre), houses sell quickly.

On one street, where 3 houses sold in 2-3 weeks, there remains one "lemon" which is sitting unsold. Given where it is (at a busy intersection) and its poor condition the seller is likely holding out for an unrealistic price.

Overall, it looks be a sellers market, with some neighbourhoods experiencing a rapid rise in prices and others not so much.
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  #504  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2013, 12:24 PM
HillStreetBlues HillStreetBlues is offline
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Realtor BS is right. Very cute slide show, but it's all anecdotal. I happened to see 53 Homewood- the house that went for a "whopping $170,000 over asking." It would be more accurate to say that it went $170,000 over the reserve bid, since it was set up as an auction and the listing price was a completely meaningless number. I jokingly asked the agent what methodology she had used to value the home, and she (like a lot of realtors) didn't understand the question. There are a lot of good agents out there, but a lot of them aren't doing much more than letting people in for views.

"A ReMax Canada report earlier this year said property values in Hamilton have jumped 76 per cent in 10 years." This is another problem I have with these types of "articles." "Jumped" 76 percent in 10 years? Huh? What is that, five percent a year? Some jump…

However, some neighbourhoods have increased in value a fair bit faster than inflation and wages (as they have elsewhere in the country). Is that likely to continue forever, or correct itself?

A low number of listings does not mean a healthy market. Declines in volumes precede declines in prices, and we are quite possibly heading there.
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  #505  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2013, 5:20 PM
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Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues View Post
Realtor BS is right. Very cute slide show, but it's all anecdotal. I happened to see 53 Homewood- the house that went for a "whopping $170,000 over asking." It would be more accurate to say that it went $170,000 over the reserve bid, since it was set up as an auction and the listing price was a completely meaningless number. I jokingly asked the agent what methodology she had used to value the home, and she (like a lot of realtors) didn't understand the question. There are a lot of good agents out there, but a lot of them aren't doing much more than letting people in for views.

"A ReMax Canada report earlier this year said property values in Hamilton have jumped 76 per cent in 10 years." This is another problem I have with these types of "articles." "Jumped" 76 percent in 10 years? Huh? What is that, five percent a year? Some jump…

However, some neighbourhoods have increased in value a fair bit faster than inflation and wages (as they have elsewhere in the country). Is that likely to continue forever, or correct itself?

A low number of listings does not mean a healthy market. Declines in volumes precede declines in prices, and we are quite possibly heading there.
Nice to hear someone who knows what they are talking about.
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  #506  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2013, 5:56 PM
movingtohamilton movingtohamilton is offline
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The most reliable data on this issue will be found from a 3rd. party source who generally will "have no dog in this fight". My post which started this thread, and the following ones, have been anecdotal.

A healthy market is thought to be a balanced market. I would like to see recent evidence in Ontario that a decline in listings has lead to a decline in prices. Prices in Toronto are not in decline.
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  #507  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2013, 3:10 PM
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Housing starts up slightly

http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/stor...ng-starts.html

Housing starts in Hamilton are up slightly from last month according to the latest information from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

The city had 3044 housing starts in May, versus 3040 in April say the CMHC.

The numbers have been holding steady since March but are up considerably from February when the region say only 2704 starts.

"The trend in Hamilton's total housing starts remained practically unchanged in May 2013 relative to the previous month. Hamilton CMA residential construction activity in the past three months has been consistently signaling a stable local housing market," said Abdul Kargbo, CMHC's Senior Market Analyst for Hamilton and Brantford in a statement.

The CMHC calculates a six-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates of housing starts. It uses this trend measure to complement the monthly tally of housing starts in order to account for swings in monthly estimates and paint a more complete picture of patterns in the housing market, the organization said.
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  #508  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2013, 4:09 PM
thistleclub thistleclub is offline
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The CMHC press release notes:

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and semi-detached homes.

From the CMHC's Preliminary Housing Starts, May 2013:

Hamilton CMA, May 2013 (Table 1)
Single-Detached: 126
All Others: 151
Total: 277

Hamilton CMA, January-May 2013 (Table 2)
Single-Detached: 425
All Others: 868
Total: 1,293


May 2013 numbers are down negligibly (1%), year-over-year, while Jan-May 2013 saw a 17% drop in starts compared to the same period last year.

Here are CMHC's numbers for April 2013 in the Hamilton CMA:

Starts by Dwelling Type (Table A4-1)
Singles: 100
Semis: 0
Apt/Other: 0
Row: 51
Total: 151

Starts, April 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 10
Grimsby: 6
Hamilton: 135
Total: 151

Starts, Jan-Apr 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 462
Grimsby: 14
Hamilton: 540
Total: 1,016


The Hamilton CMA reportedly had 3,044 new housing starts in March 2013 as well. Elsewhere, the CMHC reports that the Hamilton CMA recorded 2,969 new housing starts in all of 2012.
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  #509  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2013, 10:26 PM
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Starts, April 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 10
Grimsby: 6
Hamilton: 135
Total: 151

Starts, Jan-Apr 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 462
Grimsby: 14
Hamilton: 540
Total: 1,016

Interesting how Burlington had only 10 starts in April versus 462 for the first four months. I suppose that's more evidence that Burlington is mostly built out for single family houses and how any growth there will be apartments/condos intensification. Weird that Grimsby only has 14 for the first four months. I would have thought there would be more.
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  #510  
Old Posted Jun 15, 2013, 4:39 PM
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Very informative forum. Interesting to see what has happened reading all the way from the start. Of course we have the help of hindsight now but still pretty neat. Took me a long time to read it all. Hopefully we can continue to get good information. I love reading about real estate. Hamilton seems to be a city with lots of promise.
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  #511  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2013, 7:37 PM
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From RAHB’s May 2013 market report:

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported a record 1599 sales of all property types listed through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). The previous record was 1598 sales in June of 2009. There were 2,268 properties listed in May, a small increase over May of last year. All property sales increased by 3.4 per cent over the same month last year. The average sale price of $423,542 was an increase of 12.2 per cent from the previous May. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were 1.5 per cent higher than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 12.3 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 3.4 per cent higher than the same month last year.... Year to date, listings are down 2.1 per cent compared to the same period last year, while sales are 4.6 per cent lower. The average sale price for the first five months of the year is 7.5 per cent higher than the same period last year.

Average Sale Price, May 2013

Flamborough $607,384
Burlington $502,473
Ancaster $494,782
Waterdown $453,720
Dundas $374,913
Glanbrook $352,596
Hamilton West $345,360
Grimsby $327,909
Stoney Creek $320,051
Caledonia $317,176
Hamilton Mountain $283,999
Hamilton East $219,521
Hamilton Centre $175,740
Dunnville $170,075


Average Sale Price Increase ($), May 2013 vs May 2012

Flamborough $84,551
Hamilton West $60,589
Ancaster $57,229
Waterdown $50,517
Caledonia $41,313
Burlington $38,137
Hamilton East $14,816
Hamilton Mountain $10,472
Stoney Creek $9,125
Hamilton Centre $9,100
Dunnville -$5,848
Glanbrook -$13,267
Dundas -$25,539
Grimsby -$30,064


Average Sale Price Increase (%), May 2013 vs May 2012

Hamilton West 21.27%
Flamborough 16.17%
Caledonia 14.98%
Ancaster 13.07%
Waterdown 12.53%
Burlington 8.21%
Hamilton East 7.23%
Hamilton Centre 5.46%
Hamilton Mountain 3.83%
Stoney Creek 2.93%
Dunnville -3.32%
Glanbrook -3.63%
Dundas -6.38%
Grimsby -8.40%
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  #512  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2013, 7:46 PM
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Landlords to offer alternative to apartment licensing
(Hamilton Spectator, Matthew Van Dongen, June 18 2013)

Landlords and realtors will pitch an alternative plan to deal with illegal apartments today in an effort to head off a controversial city proposal to license rental units.

City staff have proposed licensing rental units in houses and small buildings, arguing close to 30% of all apartments in converted homes are illegal under current bylaws.

City councillors put off a decision on the licensing scheme early this year and asked industry groups to pitch an alternative that would improve safety and overcrowding in converted homes.

Landlords and realtors will pitch a reinterpretation of existing zoning bylaws to allow existing safe units that are technically illegal.
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  #513  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2013, 9:56 PM
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Interesting to see sale prices in all parts of the old City of Hamilton are on the rise, especially in the West. Kinda surprised to see Dundas take such a dive though.
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  #514  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2013, 12:35 AM
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I don't want to offend any Flamborites out there but that number - $607,384 - is further evidence of just how screwed and grotesquely inflated housing prices are in the area, not to mention Canada at large. I just can't make sense of there being that kind of demand to live in a cardboard house on the fringe of the city.
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  #515  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2013, 12:39 AM
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Dundas (like Flamborough) represents a smaller sales volume, so the variations can show some wobble, and RAHB attaches any number of caveats to this info. (I look at it as being mostly for entertainment value.) In general, however, Dundas is consistently one of the top five local real estate draws. January-March 2013, Dundas averaged $373,029; in April 2013, $376,985. So a May 2013 average of $374,913 isn’t exactly a meteoric fall.

Once the June numbers are tallied I’ll do up Q2 and mid-year tables. Still not airtight, but the larger the sample, the more revealing the results.
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  #516  
Old Posted Jun 21, 2013, 2:47 PM
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Inevitable wrinkle in the story that never gets old.

Bidding wars, soaring house prices hit Hamilton real estate
(Toronto Star, Susan Pigg, June 21 2013)

Cathy Thomson always imagined that when she and her husband retired, they would sell their house in Oshawa and move to the big city.
They did. The City of Hamilton.

The former librarians were shocked to discover that for about half the price, $295,000, they could get everything they’d hoped to find in Toronto — a cool condo close to a burgeoning arts scene, thriving cafes, up-and-coming restaurants, and bike paths that meander along a waterfront undergoing a rebirth.

With any luck, all-day GO train service, originally slated for the 2015 PanAm Games, will arrive someday within a 10-minute walk of their new home, a soaring and sunny 1,200-square-foot condo in a beautifully converted, century-old school.

Thomson, 57, and her husband Rick Ficek, 67, never intended to become cheerleaders for Steeltown — a city they barely knew, or thought they’d even like, until they got past the aged smokestacks and strolled through its tree-lined historic central neighbourhoods.

There they discovered elegant, and sometimes unloved, brick Victorians, charming workers’ cottages and even Rosedale-like mansions. And they were all shockingly affordable — at least by Toronto’s sky-high standards.

But prices here are now growing at a rate outpacing almost every other city in Canada. Locals largely blame “real estate refugees” from the GTA, and too few listings to meet the growing demand. Prices in the region rose 12.8 per cent in May over a year earlier, more than three times the national average.

The historic southwest part of the city core, the up-and-coming Bayfront area overlooking the revitalized Hamilton Harbour, and the streets, like Thomson’s and Ficek’s, in the area west of St. James St. N. are also in hot demand from international medical experts, researchers and even investors, says Bruce Moran, president of the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington.

And with that demand come the hallmarks of a hot market: More realtors holding back offers or underpricing properties to fuel bidding wars, and higher prices, which last month averaged $416,664 in Hamilton-Burlington, up from $369,292 a year ago, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Veteran realtors still shake their heads as they drive past a 2½-storey west-end home that recently sold for $471,250 — more than $170,000 over the $299,900 list price.

“There is a lot more going on here than meets the eye,” says Keanin Loomis, 38, president of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce, who was a Rochester, N.Y., lawyer until 2009.

“The minute I moved here I felt like I was in on Canada’s best-kept secret. I always said I didn’t want that to get out until I’d bought a house.”

He did, last February, in what realtors have dubbed “the trendy Locke St. area,” for $32,000 over the $349,000 asking price in an eight-person bidding war.

All-day GO train service had been expected to further fuel the real estate boom by creating “a 45-minute iPad ride,” in the words of local realtor Juliana Webster, between affordable homes and Toronto jobs. Right now there are some trains during rush hour and buses the rest of the day. By the time the PanAm Games begin, GO will expand train service during rush hours.

“The big challenge is having people look down their nose at you when they find out you have moved to Hamilton,” says Webster, formerly of Montreal. “But that’s changing. Once people see what Hamilton has to offer, we find they go home and tell their friends, so the word is getting out.”
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  #517  
Old Posted Jun 21, 2013, 4:47 PM
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That looks like a puff piece.

Only a realtor would be quoted as saying GO service will be a '45 minute iPad ride'. The reality is Metrolinx promised nothing in terms of service levels or express / semi-express service.

There may have been a few bidding wars induced by below-market list prices, but I believe the stats show prices are holding steady. They certainly aren't skyrocketing in my neighbourhood, which this article is mostly written about.

I honestly hope not to be caught up in the insanity of a rapidly inflating market. It would carry unintended consequences.
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  #518  
Old Posted Jun 21, 2013, 5:41 PM
thistleclub thistleclub is offline
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Originally Posted by Jon Dalton View Post
That looks like a puff piece.
Very much so. Most real estate stories are, but this one manages a fine balance of vacuous and authoritative.

Maybe RAHB's president neglected to mention that the market's 12% price growth is primarily driven by suburban/rural prices.
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  #519  
Old Posted Jun 21, 2013, 8:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Jon Dalton View Post
That looks like a puff piece.

Only a realtor would be quoted as saying GO service will be a '45 minute iPad ride'. The reality is Metrolinx promised nothing in terms of service levels or express / semi-express service.

There may have been a few bidding wars induced by below-market list prices, but I believe the stats show prices are holding steady. They certainly aren't skyrocketing in my neighbourhood, which this article is mostly written about.

I honestly hope not to be caught up in the insanity of a rapidly inflating market. It would carry unintended consequences.
I can tell you for a fact that 3 recent home sales in prime Westdale have gone for considerably more than asking. And they were not underpriced.
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  #520  
Old Posted Jun 21, 2013, 11:22 PM
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I can tell you for a fact that 3 recent home sales in prime Westdale have gone for considerably more than asking. And they were not underpriced.
And there are a lot of decent homes that have sat on the market for a while... have been pulled for a awhile and was re-listed and is still sitting.

It's definitely a puff piece... pure realtor marketing disguised as a news article.
They've been doing this for years and it's helped inflate this stupid bubble that has done significant damage to the economy - sucking so many people in needless debt.
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