City Murder Rates

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by Acajack

There is nothing good about murders but I always appreciate your posts as it's interesting to see what is going on in other places.

80 murders so far seems a lot higher than what I would expect for a country like Sweden.

In terms of comparables, Ontario has 14.5 million people and is at 114 murders for 2020.

Quebec has 8.5 million people and is at 32 murders for the year.

Thanks, and likewise!

Just found some official statistics from Oslo, Norway.

The police district is the home of 900.000 people (basically the urban area) and 2019 was the lowest number of murder since the 90's.

The district noted just 4 murders.

All 4 victims were women.

26 murders were recorded in the whole country (pop: 5,4 mil)

[tablemtn]

Chicago had an astonishing number of murders in July 2020:

https://blockclubchicago.org/2020/08...ngs-skyrocket/

Chicago had 105 murders in July, more than double the 44 in July 2019, and 584 shooting victims is also up dramatically from the same period last year, with 308 reported in July 2019.

[edale]

105 murders in one month. Wow, that's abysmal.

[dc_denizen]

the riot/protest/defund the police dividend.

meanwhile people affected by violence actually want increased police presence in their neighborhoods

https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/...-presence.aspx

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

the riot/protest/defund the police dividend.

meanwhile people affected by violence actually want increased police presence in their neighborhoods

https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/...-presence.aspx

you mean a VERY small but vocal fringe group doesnt speak for the entirety of the black community? Im shocked! A vast majority of my neighbors in my building that ive spoken to, which is 168 units and extremely diverse with basically every race, nationality, etc all agree that defunding the police is a stupid idea. Reallocating certain things is good, community policing is good, but less cops? Nah

[bossabreezes]

Philadelphia continues having it's most deadly year since 2007. It could be longer, but the data I have access to only goes back to 2007.

257 murders as of Aug 5, an increase of 34% YOY. 2019 had a grand total of 356, so it's pretty obvious Philadelphia will end with around 500 murders.

[tablemtn]

Looks like Philly's all-time (modern) high was 503 murders in 1990:



Some cities seem to be heading toward all-time highs this year, either in raw numbers, rates, or both. The US Bureau of Justice Statistics has data online for 1985 to 2014 for a lot of cities:

https://www.bjs.gov/ucrdata/Search/C...risbyJuris.cfm

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by tablemtn

Looks like Philly's all-time (modern) high was 503 murders in 1990:



Some cities seem to be heading toward all-time highs this year, either in raw numbers, rates, or both. The US Bureau of Justice Statistics has data online for 1985 to 2014 for a lot of cities:

https://www.bjs.gov/ucrdata/Search/C...risbyJuris.cfm

Very interesting to see how crime rates generally corresponds with the population coverage.
Years of population-decline = higher rate of violent crime.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

Very interesting to see how crime rates generally corresponds with the population coverage.
Years of population-decline = higher rate of violent crime.

The question that springs to mind: does population decline cause spikes in violent crime, or do spikes in violent crime cause population decline?

[Handro]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

the riot/protest/defund the police dividend.
]

Proof?

[edale]

Originally Posted by Handro

Proof?

Not saying I 100% agree that this national increase in urban violence/homicide is a result of the protests/riots, but what other theory do you have? The economy? Restlessness from quarantine? Crime had been in fairly steep decline basically everywhere for the last several years. Even the normal hotspots like Chicago had started to improve. Now, all of a sudden, it just skyrockets back up to shocking levels?

Crime definitely spiked in Cincinnati for several years following the riot in 2001 after a police shooting of an unarmed teen. The police said they were taking a less aggressive approach, and homicides soared. I was fearful this would be the result when the defund the police movement really took off. And I generally support the movement, went to a couple BLM protests, etc. But I've seen it play out like this before. A lot of well intentioned liberal folks are seriously naive about the levels of violence in this country and what it takes to control it. It's too late to disarm or dissolve the police-- not when there are hundreds of millions of guns floating around. We can't all just sing kum-ba-yah and get along with the aid of some social workers, because this is a deeply violent country. I fear these violent trends will continue for a while, sadly.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by edale

Not saying I 100% agree that this national increase in urban violence/homicide is a result of the protests/riots, but what other theory do you have? The economy? Restlessness from quarantine? Crime had been in fairly steep decline basically everywhere for the last several years. Even the normal hotspots like Chicago had started to improve. Now, all of a sudden, it just skyrockets back up to shocking levels?

There was definitely an uptick after the George Floyd murder, but this year also hasn't been extraordinarily violent for Chicago. Murders are only slightly above 2016 and 2017:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...htmlstory.html

Another thing that happened around the George Floyd murder in Chicago was a heatwave. July had it's first +90 degree day on June 2 this year, versus June 27th last year. In 2017, which is Chicago's 2nd most violent year in recent memory, Chicago's first 90 degree day was June 4th.

[edale]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There was definitely an uptick after the George Floyd murder, but this year also hasn't been extraordinarily violent for Chicago. Murders are only slightly above 2016 and 2017:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...htmlstory.html

Another thing that happened around the George Floyd murder in Chicago was a heatwave. July had it's first +90 degree day on June 2 this year, versus June 27th last year. In 2017, which is Chicago's 2nd most violent year in recent memory, Chicago's first 90 degree day was June 4th.

105 murders in the month of July isn't extraordinarily violent?? Even when in 2019 there were 44? You also know that 2017 was one of the worst years in Chicago history for murders, right? It was the highest number of murders since the early 90s. So exceeding that high water mark shouldn't just be shrugged off.

But of course this surge in homicides is not just in Chicago. Portland had 15 murders in July?? Portland!? That city traditionally has like Canadian levels of violence, which is to say not much. Similar spikes are happening in cities around the country. I think the pandemic does have something to do with it. I also think the economy and stress that we're all under might be contributing. But I also 100% think that police are taking a very hands-off approach, and we're seeing the results. It could even be intentional. I could see an attitude of "You want to defund us? Ok, here's what happens when we're not around" being pervasive in PDs across the country.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by edale

105 murders in the month of July isn't extraordinarily violent?? Even when in 2019 there were 44? You also know that 2017 was one of the worst years in Chicago history for murders, right? It was the highest number of murders since the early 90s. So exceeding that high water mark shouldn't just be shrugged off.

But of course this surge in homicides is not just in Chicago. Portland had 15 murders in July?? Portland!? That city traditionally has like Canadian levels of violence, which is to say not much. Similar spikes are happening in cities around the country. I think the pandemic does have something to do with it. I also think the economy and stress that we're all under might be contributing. But I also 100% think that police are taking a very hands-off approach, and we're seeing the results. It could even be intentional. I could see an attitude of "You want to defund us? Ok, here's what happens when we're not around" being pervasive in PDs across the country.

I don't get your point. Should I fly to Chicago and give every gangbanger a big hug? I'm just giving you the numbers and also pointing to another possible explanation, which is exactly what you asked for.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by edale

Not saying I 100% agree that this national increase in urban violence/homicide is a result of the protests/riots, but what other theory do you have? The economy? Restlessness from quarantine? Crime had been in fairly steep decline basically everywhere for the last several years. Even the normal hotspots like Chicago had started to improve. Now, all of a sudden, it just skyrockets back up to shocking levels?

Crime definitely spiked in Cincinnati for several years following the riot in 2001 after a police shooting of an unarmed teen. The police said they were taking a less aggressive approach, and homicides soared. I was fearful this would be the result when the defund the police movement really took off. And I generally support the movement, went to a couple BLM protests, etc. But I've seen it play out like this before. A lot of well intentioned liberal folks are seriously naive about the levels of violence in this country and what it takes to control it. It's too late to disarm or dissolve the police-- not when there are hundreds of millions of guns floating around. We can't all just sing kum-ba-yah and get along with the aid of some social workers, because this is a deeply violent country. I fear these violent trends will continue for a while, sadly.

One could more easily make the argument that coronavirus is in fact to blame. Record unemployment and job loss (just today we learned we've now had 20 consecutive weeks with over 1,000,000 new jobless claims), schools closed, who knows how many social outreach/nonprofits working with barebones crews and limited resources...

I don't even know how George Floyd plays into it other than in some strange partisan fantasy.

A lot of well intentioned liberal folks are seriously naive about the levels of violence in this country and what it takes to control it. It's too late to disarm or dissolve the police-- not when there are hundreds of millions of guns floating around.

Who is naive? Certainly the people blaming protests in June for rising homicides in May while ignoring the the cold hard facts of the worst economic crisis in the past 100 years... The protests are extremely triggering for certain segments of the country and fits a convenient narrative to blame them for all of society's current ills but it definitely doesn't stand up to any sort of rigorous logic.

[Acajack]

Regarding COVID's effect on violent crime and murders in particular, we actually don't have look any further than Montreal.

COVID hit there harder than it did in most major cities of the western world. It was worse than any other Canadian city and statistically on par with Milan which was one of the hardest-hit places in Europe.

Montreal is also a diverse city with its share of social problems including poverty and homelessness.

COVID provoked a wide-ranging economic shutdown with the unemployment rate soaring.

This has been one of the warmest summers in memory as well with average highs around 30C with high humidity leading to it feeling between 90 and 100F most days.

I wouldn't say the police force is particularly "beloved" by the population in Montreal either.

So, anyone wanna guess what has happened to Montreal's violent crime rate this year? (Crickets.)

Montreal does have street gangs, and sizeable criminal biker gang (Hell's Angels) and Mafia elements.

So far these groups don't seem to have capitalized on the greater "freedom" afforded by the COVID situation.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Regarding COVID's effect on violent crime and murders in particular, we actually don't have look any further than Montreal.

COVID hit there harder than it did in most major cities of the western world. It was worse than any other Canadian city and statistically on par with Milan which was one of the hardest-hit places in Europe.

Montreal is also a diverse city with its share of social problems including poverty and homelessness.

COVID provoked a wide-ranging economic shutdown with the unemployment rate soaring.

This has been one of the warmest summers in memory as well with average highs around 30C with high humidity leading to it feeling between 90 and 100F most days.

I wouldn't say the police force is particularly "beloved" by the population in Montreal either.

So, anyone wanna guess what has happened to Montreal's violent crime rate this year? (Crickets.)

Montreal does have street gangs, and sizeable criminal biker gang (Hell's Angels) and Mafia elements.

So far these groups don't seem to have capitalized on the greater "freedom" afforded by the COVID situation.

Isn't Canada sending everybody a $2,000 check every month?

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Regarding COVID's effect on violent crime and murders in particular, we actually don't have look any further than Montreal.

COVID hit there harder than it did in most major cities of the western world. It was worse than any other Canadian city and statistically on par with Milan which was one of the hardest-hit places in Europe.

Montreal is also a diverse city with its share of social problems including poverty and homelessness.

COVID provoked a wide-ranging economic shutdown with the unemployment rate soaring.

This has been one of the warmest summers in memory as well with average highs around 30C with high humidity leading to it feeling between 90 and 100F most days.

I wouldn't say the police force is particularly "beloved" by the population in Montreal either.

So, anyone wanna guess what has happened to Montreal's violent crime rate this year? (Crickets.)

Montreal does have street gangs, and sizeable criminal biker gang (Hell's Angels) and Mafia elements.

So far these groups don't seem to have capitalized on the greater "freedom" afforded by the COVID situation.

I think there's a bit of a difference between a low-crime, stable city with a strong social safety net and those that were already teetering on the brink of social dysfunction without a pandemic. There's nothing that would cause a city like Montreal to have 100 homicides per month; but conversely, a pandemic, lockdown, economic depression, social upheaval, and heatwave are enough to push a city that already had problems with poverty and violence over the edge.

[edale]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I don't get your point. Should I fly to Chicago and give every gangbanger a big hug? I'm just giving you the numbers and also pointing to another possible explanation, which is exactly what you asked for.

If you don't get my point, try reading it again. The explanation you gave is that it got hot in Chicago earlier this year. Which is laughably simple and does nothing to explain the crime spikes in other cities. You preceded that explanation by basically saying "well actually, it's not that bad. Murders are only slightly above the worst murder year in the past 30 years." A remarkably bad take if I've ever seen one.

So uh, I guess go ahead and fly to Chicago and give out hugs to gangbangers if you want to? Not sure what the hell that has to do with anything.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Handro

Who is naive? Certainly the people blaming protests in June for rising homicides in May while ignoring the the cold hard facts of the worst economic crisis in the past 100 years... The protests are extremely triggering for certain segments of the country and fits a convenient narrative to blame them for all of society's current ills but it definitely doesn't stand up to any sort of rigorous logic.

You don't think police are reacting to the protests against them by taking a more, shall we say, cautious approach? This has been shown to occur time and time again. As I said, I think it might be deliberate to try to demonstrate their value to the general public.

The protests aren't 'triggering' to me. As I said, I participated in them here in Los Angeles. But I'm not going to play dumb and act like the dramatic rise in violence isn't somehow related to protests against the police. Especially when we've seen this exact phenomenon play out time and time again in the past. I understand that the economic crisis could be also contributing, as well as general restlessness and unease among the people. It's not just one factor, but I think it is naive to think the protests don't have something to do with this crime spike.

Another potential cause could be the thousands of inmates that were released in cities across the country due to Covid concerns and, to a lesser extent, activist pressure.