Posted Apr 30, 2010, 2:41 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: The Lower-48
Posts: 4,789
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AZ economy
http://www.azcentral.com/business/ar...ecast0430.html
Quote:
New projections show severe job loss in Ariz.
State Commerce Dept. forecasting 50,400 positions will be lost this year
Betty Beard - Apr. 29, 2010 05:11 PM
The Arizona Republic
Arizona is expected to lose about 50,400 jobs this year and gain about 23,100 next year, the Arizona Department of Commerce said Thursday in its twice-a-year job forecast.
That is worse than the department projected in its last forecast in October when it said the state was likely to lose 17,300 jobs this year. In fact, Thursday's forecast is the third consecutive one in which job losses are projected to be worse than previously thought.
Department economist Aruna Murthy said the agency increased the number of job losses expected this year because last year's losses - about 189,000 or 7.3 percent compared with 2008 - were deeper than expected and problems such as credit tightness, high debt overhangs and reduced wealth still linger.
The latest forecast doesn't include the possible effects of a vote for or against Proposition 100, a 1 percent state sales-tax increase on the May 18 ballot, or of boycotts resulting from the state's controversial new immigration law.
Murthy said there was no way to guess the effects of those without hard data.
The Goldwater Institute estimates passage of Proposition 100 would cost the state about 14,400 private-sector jobs because it would reduce the consumer spending that supports retail jobs.
But the University of Arizona's Economic and Business Research Center says passage would save more than 13,000 jobs and preserve more than $442 million in federal matching funds. It says much of the estimated $918 million in increased revenues the state would receive would be spent on products and services provided by private companies.
The Commerce Department says the only sectors expected to gain jobs this year are educational and health services, with an expected increase of 2.7 percent, and leisure and hospitality, 0.3 percent.
Murthy said educational and health services will gain positions because private schools and colleges are seeing a big influx in students training or retraining for jobs and medical jobs will grow as the Baby Boomers age.
The leisure and hospitality sector, which includes hotels, resorts, restaurants, bars and movie theaters, is expected to add jobs because consumers will feel more like treating themselves as the economy improves, she said. Also, as the worldwide economy improves, international tourism may pick up.
Six sectors are expected to gain next year: manufacturing; natural resources and mining; trade (including retail), transportation and utilities; professional and business services (including temp jobs); educational and health services, and leisure and hospitality.
About half the job gains expected next year will be temporary or contracted employees. The department projects an increase of 12,400 of those posts.
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"The leisure and hospitality sector, which includes hotels, resorts, restaurants, bars and movie theaters, is expected to add jobs....Also, as the worldwide economy improves, international tourism may pick up."
This is a huge assumption. If anything, the EU is worse off this year than last.
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