Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

In Canada (not 100% sure if this is common to all Westminister parliaments or not), it is considered a violation of parliamentary tradition/custom to use political props in Parliament (so things like holding up signs, infograpics, using objects during a debate, etc.). The current dispute is over whether or not wearing of a keffiyah is considered a "political prop".

To me, if some white progressive MPP from Toronto wears a keffiyah as an explicit pro-Palestine gesture, that is definitely a political prop and it should remain banned. But if some MPP who is actually Arab wears it in a more everyday context, it's simply a clothing choice and shouldn't be banned.

The solution here, IMO, is to simply give the speaker discretion to decide, on a case by case basis, whether any specific use of a keffiyah by a member is "political" or not (and if so, they should be instructed to remove it or leave the House).

Another question is who was wearing one in the legislature prior to October 7? My guess is no one at all.

(I actually have one myself, believe or not. Though I wouldn't go out in public with that on in the current context.)

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

For those who understand French, TVA and Le Journal de Montréal (same owner and sharing news resources) are doing an extended series on the state of French in Anglo-Canada.

The first two reports are online now. One is from Sudbury in Northern Ontario and the other from Southwestern Nova Scotia. Two regions I know well. Nothing I didn't know already or have factual objections to.

https://twitter.com/tvanouvelles/sta...82344525271142

Southwestern NS is an interesting choice of region to analyze and one I can't really comment on from a lived life perspective.

As for Sudbury, it's kind of lived life. French-accented English among the long-term Francophones of an era, English-accented French among their kids (now in adulthood), and the grandkids are essentially completely anglophone. Unless they went against the grain and did French immersion, but it's still functionally English for everything.

The puck's direction isn't hard to observe. It just took longer to get where it did because of the underlying economic malaise of the region that's reversed in the past decade.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Southwestern NS is an interesting choice of region to analyze and one I can't really comment on from a lived life perspective.

It's one of the oldest francophone areas outside Quebec, having been settled in the 1760s by Acadiens fleeing the deportation (from their original homes in the Annapolis Valley).

I am sure the series will also focus on the larger Acadien populations of northern and southeastern New Brunswick eventually.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I'd add that the trend of people who don't integrate with francophones or even of those who don't speak any French moving out of Quebec to the ROC has stopped and even reversed. More of them are staying and more of them are moving in. The anglophone population and the share of people who speak only English is rising for the first time in about 50 years.

A reflection of Montreal's strong economy, one imagines. 50 years of decline is a tragedy.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Lots of brown francophones...

The messaging will be a bit more challenging in the late 2020s versus 1995 for PSPP and the PQ if they want to build a momentum.

The fat English Eatons saleslady lost her job when Eatons closed in 1999 and she died of complications of diabetes when Jean Charest was Premier.

The messaging for 'nous' will have to very much revolve around 'langue' almost exclusively, with extreme aversion to any taint of 'ethnique'.

Possible? Absolument. PSPP seems pretty canny. I suspect he can stickhandle that bouncing puck better than most.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

A reflection of Montreal's strong economy, one imagines. 50 years of decline is a tragedy.

That of course, but several other factors as well:

- It's by far the most affordable desirable big city in Canada, and the others are mostly out of reach for lots of people

- The word on the street in the ROC (and Bangalore, I assume) is that Quebec separatism is dead

- The word on the street in the ROC (and Quezon City, I assume) is that one apparently doesn't need any French at all to live and work in Montreal

- The doors of Canada are wide open to the world and have been for quite some time, and Montreal and Quebec are part of Canada

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am not sure it would be a suddenly brutal reset if PSPP simply gets elected. It will depend on whether he gets a majority and how big it will be.

I'd expect more of a slow burn up to the hypothetical referendum, with some volatility depending on how the campaign and polling are going.

The word I'm hearing on the island these days is that PSPP is likely going to be more adversarial and antagonistic against Anglophones compared to Rene Levesque and even Jacques Parizeau. Significantly moreso than Lucien Bouchard who's very conciliatory towards Anglophones.

So I could very well envision PSPP positioning to groom the populace to take a more idealistic/radical route of separation from Canada, and perhaps pushing more contentious policies like dumping the Canadian dollar for Quebec bucks. Remains to be seen how the Quebecois electorate will react.

All that being said, I wonder how affordability in the rest of Canada will affect this. Some strongly pro-Canada types may still opt to wait things out in Quebec given the high cost of a relocation to the ROC - especially in the places that are likely to be appealling to them.

Toronto was definitely always more expensive than Montreal, but I think there was less of a sticker shock going down the 401 say 30 or 40 years ago than there is today. Even Montreal isn't much of a bargain anymore, and Toronto is insane.

Yes mainly the RE price correction will happen on the island, and maybe Gatineau. The rest of Quebec should be pretty immune as their price appreciation has been relatively benign.

My SO has lately started contemplating cashing out the property on the island, and wait for the PSPP reset to buy back in. No one expects 1995 prices again (Plateau and NDG multiplexes for pennies on the dollar, one can dream), but the reset could still be pretty substantial.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The word I'm hearing on the island these days is that PSPP is likely going to be more adversarial and antagonistic against Anglophones compared to Rene Levesque and even Jacques Parizeau. Significantly moreso than Lucien Bouchard who's very conciliatory towards Anglophones.

Lucien Bouchard always had the California connection via Audrey Best.

Parizeau had his Anglophilia. The London School of Economics got into the bones, I suppose.

Modernity calls for brashness in political theatre. PSPP's playing the game, especially with Ottawa at a low ebb.

[le calmar]

The PQ sure is taking advantage of the fact there’s practically no competition on the provincial scene at the moment. The CAQ may have already hit the bottom and may eventually slowly start trending up again, but after 10 years in power they will not be able to really rejuvenate the party, especially with Legault at the helm.

QS topped out in voting intentions thanks to the wokeness of their policies. The Parti conservateur will remain marginal. The PLQ is currently polling very low, but they do have a decent shot at becoming relevant again if they were to choose at young and dynamic leader before the next elections. Denis Coderre is definitely not it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The word I'm hearing on the island these days is that PSPP is likely going to be more adversarial and antagonistic against Anglophones compared to Rene Levesque and even Jacques Parizeau. Significantly moreso than Lucien Bouchard who's very conciliatory towards Anglophones.
.

Anglophones already feel they're getting a rough ride from François Legault! At least Legault thinks (or perhaps thought) he could gain some traction with anglo voters, but PSPP won't have to cater to them at all as it's totally useless for a PQ leader to do so.

On other platforms I sometimes engage with Anglo-Montrealers directly and they're all "Legault's gotta go!" but I always ask them what the other realistic choices are?

At this point, unless the polls change it's going to be either Legault or PSPP in 2026. Québec solidaire isn't going to form a government anytime soon and even so, they're (sort of) sovereignist.

The provincial Liberals are a joke and almost a regional ethnic protest party at this point. I mean, they may rebuild but it will take a while.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by le calmar

The PQ sure is taking advantage of the fact there’s practically no competition on the provincial scene at the moment. The CAQ may have already hit the bottom and may eventually slowly start trending up again, but after 10 years in power they will not be able to really rejuvenate the party, especially with Legault at the helm.

QS topped out in voting intentions thanks to the wokeness of their policies. The Parti conservateur will remain marginal. The PLQ is currently polling very low, but they do have a decent shot at becoming relevant again if they were to choose at young and dynamic leader before the next elections. Denis Coderre is definitely not it.

Anything is possible in politics but the PLQ with a huge resurgence to become a force across Quebec again in time for the 2026 elections would be one of the greatest phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes moments in Canadian political history. I think the CAQ would need to collapse for that to have any chance of happening.

[le calmar]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Anything is possible in politics but the PLQ with a huge resurgence to become a force across Quebec again in time for the 2026 elections would be one of the greatest phoenix-rising-from-the-ashes moments in Canadian political history. I think the CAQ would need to collapse for that to have any chance of happening.

I agree it’s unlikely. We’ll see who they choose to lead the party, but if Denis Coderre, or even worse, Antoine Dionne-Charest are picked (I think he expressed some interest?), they’re definitely going to maintain their very low voting intentions. Coderre may appeal to older voters though, but he doesn’t have what it takes to take the party to the next level.

They would have to go in a totally different direction and pick a young and dynamic newcomer to lead the party to get the slightest shot at becoming relevant again, which I’m not sure they’re going to do.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by le calmar

I agree it’s unlikely. We’ll see who they choose to lead the party, but if Denis Coderre, or even worse, Antoine Dionne-Charest are picked (I think he expressed some interest?), they’re definitely going to maintain their very low voting intentions. Coderre may appeal to older voters though, but he doesn’t have what it takes to take the party to the next level.

They would have to go in a totally different direction and pick a young and dynamic newcomer to lead the party to get the slightest shot at becoming relevant again, which I’m not sure they’re going to do.

ADC looks and sounds a lot older than his 41 years, but his mom, Michou, is pretty cute!

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Anglophones already feel they're getting a rough ride from François Legault! At least Legault thinks (or perhaps thought) he could gain some traction with anglo voters, but PSPP won't have to cater to them at all as it's totally useless for a PQ leader to do so.

On other platforms I sometimes engage with Anglo-Montrealers directly and they're all "Legault's gotta go!" but I always ask them what the other realistic choices are? .

The funny part is that Legault is secretly very acommodating to Anglophones based on his government's track record, and for all intents and purposes, the CAQ is a very realistic party that has watered down French language provisions to the benefit of the Quebec Anglo community.

Of course, this creates an opening for PSPP to be extra militant against Anglophones to differentiate the PQ brand.

[big T]

Originally Posted by thewave46

The coincidence of a resurgent referendum debate after a decade of Trudeau reimagining of the role of the federal government is not lost on me. Same with Albertan/Western Canada irritation.

Quebec seems on much more solid economic ground than 1980 or 1995 though, even comparatively when the conditions writ large of the era are factored in. Does one ride the wave when things are good? It’s a strategy with both pros and cons. Might want to do it before fiscal reality becomes actual reality in the next decade or so.

Of course that's a double-edged sword. The average Francophone suburban homeowner has a lot more to lose this time around.

I'd think that a significant part of the PQ's recent resurgence is mostly folks being fed up with the CAQ, combined with an absence of any serious alternatives. There's still an immense slog from here to a Oui victory.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by big T

Of course that's a double-edged sword. The average Francophone suburban homeowner has a lot more to lose this time around.

I'd think that a significant part of the PQ's recent resurgence is mostly folks being fed up with the CAQ, combined with an absence of any serious alternatives. There's still an immense slog from here to a Oui victory.

Definitely agree, though the PQ people like to point out that where the Oui is right now (around 36%) is where it was during much of 1995.

Every era is different. Back then there was still lingering anger over Meech, Canada was sputtering both economically and in terms of governance. Federal leaders were making promises to Quebec that they'd make changes to the Constitution if the Non won. (Most of which weren't kept BTW.)

We've got a few of those things going on right now, though the feds are now way more brash than back then about acting in areas of provincial jurisdiction and putting Quebec and the other provinces in their place.

Ultimately, PSPP needs to get elected, and then he needs to get about 20% more people to vote Oui, since that 35% is a pretty stable minimum starting point for him.

EDIT: Pierre Poilievre as PM of Canada would also be a huge variable, as Tories are generally more open to letting provinces do their own thing.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by big T

Of course that's a double-edged sword. The average Francophone suburban homeowner has a lot more to lose this time around.

I'd think that a significant part of the PQ's recent resurgence is mostly folks being fed up with the CAQ, combined with an absence of any serious alternatives. There's still an immense slog from here to a Oui victory.

I doubt that economics (debatable in any event) will be the most important factor for the majority.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Definitely agree, though the PQ people like to point out that where the Oui is right now (around 36%) is where it was during much of 1995.

Every era is different. Back then there was still lingering anger over Meech, Canada was sputtering both economically and in terms of governance. Federal leaders were making promises to Quebec that they'd make changes to the Constitution if the Non won. (Most of which weren't kept BTW.)

We've got a few of those things going on right now, though the feds are now way more brash than back then about acting in areas of provincial jurisdiction and putting Quebec and the other provinces in their place.

Ultimately, PSPP needs to get elected, and then he needs to get about 20% more people to vote Oui, since that 35% is a pretty stable minimum starting point for him.

EDIT: Pierre Poilievre as PM of Canada would also be a huge variable, as Tories are generally more open to letting provinces do their own thing.

Hence still no real prospect of the election itself being the mandate to begin negotiations.

[mousquet]

My guess is the French language will prevail in Québec if and only if we make it necessary to outsiders.
That means we must be creative, punchy and the economy of Francophonie must be steady enough.
Otherwise, English-speakers will think French is helpless. I read many comments going like - finally something that makes me want to learn French!
As if they hadn't found out before...
That's because many of them are clueless and don't know us, and we're not super active in stuff like show business, for instance. We have nothing like any Hollywood industry in the French-speaking world, while it is obviously a handy tool to serve their global communication and propaganda.

Moreover, we don't really have demography on our side, unlike Hispanics.
Some talk about French-speaking Africa, but it's still harshly impoverished, so it's been hard to make something influential of it to date.
I don't know whether the Africans will give up on French. My feeling is that they like the culture and it's been some part of them already, so they may remain faithful to the language, unlike what some say about that.
I don't see them speaking Russian instead.
I just wish they were better off. It would make it easier to defend our language on the global stage.

For now, it's up to France, Québec and the French-speaking bits of Belgium and Switzerland to keep it up.
But it's important to keep faith in Africa because they're obviously much of the future.