The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

So it's really an NS question how the CDs are drawn out rather than something that Statistics Canada decides.

Yes. Oftentimes the CDs are dictated by provincial or municipal legislation, and then StatCan works with whatever CDs they have. It's how Economic Regions are drawn and split up, for one, and how CAs and CMAs look on maps.

Halifax and Cape Breton are similar to, say, Ottawa, which is a geographically massive area. The base for the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA is Ottawa itself (city boundaries) which stretch all the way from Kanata to Orleans, despite neither of these places qualifying as being the actual centre of the CMA (downtown Ottawa). Halifax works similarly to this.

[Smevo]

Originally Posted by JHikka

I could be wrong but StatCan takes a lot of their dissemination areas from whatever the local municipality limits are. Halifax CMA includes large swaths of eastern-nothingness because the RM of Halifax includes it. Likewise, Sydney's CA (Cape Breton CA) includes the entire area because the RGM of Cape Breton includes it. Because this is the base municipality level for census purposes i'm not sure how much that is affected by the commuter counting for outside areas. Charlottetown, IIRC, was much easier and standard because Charlottetown's base municipal level is more concentrated on the town itself, so outlying areas areas are easier to add or remove, and also makes a central hub for a potential future CMA much easier to identify.

I just read through the definitions, turns out they're called Dissemination Blocks.

With these areas, StatsCan has moved away from aligning them with the old municipal boundaries in some of the amalgamated municipalities, CBRM included. With an earlier census (2006 or 2011, I'm not sure), I tried to get an estimate for the neighbourhood of Whitney Pier (where I grew up), only to see on the map that they merged the DB with South Bar, which was historically outside of the municipal boundary of Sydney but still suburban. The council at the time had actually complained to Stats Can about it, because it became impossible for them to get an accurate estimate of the populations within the old municipal limits to better inform their decision making. 2016 did more of this type of thing, but moreso in the southern suburbs of Coxheath, Sydney River/Howie Centre, and Prime Brook/Dutch Brook.

With both CBRM and HRM, the CA/CMA = the CSD (plus the reserves) = the CD =/= the PCs. HRM has the problem someone123 described because the suburbs extend beyond the Halifax County boundary on one side in a couple of areas, but there's the huge area on the east side that's sparsely populated. The confusion I'm describing is from realigning the PC boundaries within Cape Breton County, which when they were Urban Areas seemed to have a more concrete (and more simple) definition of what they represented, though they are very similar.

After reading through, I'm guessing the areas dropped met the secondary "population density" requirement in the dissemination block, but not the accompanying "employment density" requirement, which looks like it was added for the 2016 census. It's just speculation, but that's the only explanation that makes sense to me, being familiar with the areas. I'm uncertain what they were trying to accomplish by adding "employment density" as a secondary criteria.

Either way, it was just a curiosity. The population difference that it made was in the range of 1,000 people or less, so not a huge deal in terms of the greater discussion.

[Smevo]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Yes. Oftentimes the CDs are dictated by provincial or municipal legislation, and then StatCan works with whatever CDs they have. It's how Economic Regions are drawn and split up, for one, and how CAs and CMAs look on maps.

Halifax and Cape Breton are similar to, say, Ottawa, which is a geographically massive area. The base for the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA is Ottawa itself (city boundaries) which stretch all the way from Kanata to Orleans, despite neither of these places qualifying as being the actual centre of the CMA (downtown Ottawa). Halifax works similarly to this.

We're talking about two different geographical areas. You're right that CSD and CD are determined by the province. The PC's, DB's, DA's, CT's, CA's, and CMA's are determined by Stats Can.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Smevo

We're talking about two different geographical areas. You're right that CSD and CD are determined by the province. The PC's, DB's, DA's, CT's, CA's, and CMA's are determined by Stats Can.

Right, and what i'm saying is that StatCan's (it's a petpeeve of mine when people refer to it as StatsCan, similar to how it's SportChek and not SportsChek) CMAs and CAs are initially based off of the CSDs and CDs that the provinces generate in the first place.

[Taeolas]

Some great employment numbers for the region

Employment in New Brunswick returned to pre-Covid-19 levels in November, with 4,200 jobs gained, according to Statistic Canada’s latest labour force survey.

The other three Atlantic provinces also experienced employment growth, with Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia also back to pre-pandemic levels.

...

The bulk of the jobs gained (3,400) were full-time roles. The unemployment rate in the province fell 0.5 percentage points to 9.6 percent.

We're back up to pre-COVID employment levels AND a lot of those jobs are full timers.

Surprisingly, the construction industry lost jobs over that period. I wonder if that's supply chain issues hindering new projects? Our market certainly still feels quite hot.

[Haliguy]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Some great employment numbers for the region



We're back up to pre-COVID employment levels AND a lot of those jobs are full timers.

Surprisingly, the construction industry lost jobs over that period. I wonder if that's supply chain issues hindering new projects? Our market certainly still feels quite hot.

Looking good for the region! Looks like Nova Scotia has about the lowest unemployment rate in the country right now.

[MonctonRad]

I can't understand how the construction sector lost so many jobs over the last month as the construction sector (at least in Moncton) is booming. I suppose this could reflect losses in road construction and maintenance as the season is coming to an end. Other trades specializing in renovations (eg - roofers) would also be seasonally unemployed about now too. It would be nice if they issued an explanation with these numbers..........

[q12]

Nova Scotia does have the lowest unemployment rate in Canada.

Canada's national unemployment rate was 8.5 per cent in November. Here are the jobless rates last month by province (numbers from the previous month in brackets):

— Newfoundland and Labrador 12.2 per cent (12.8)

— Prince Edward Island 10.2 per cent (10.0)

— Nova Scotia 6.4 per cent (8.7)

— New Brunswick 9.6 per cent (10.1)

— Quebec 7.2 per cent (7.7)

— Ontario 9.1 per cent (9.6)

— Manitoba 7.4 per cent (7.1)

— Saskatchewan 6.9 per cent (6.4)

— Alberta 11.1 per cent (10.7)

— British Columbia 7.1 per cent (8.0)

Employment furthest from pre-COVID level in Alberta and Manitoba

[KnoxfordGuy]

There are projects being built all over Fredericton so the construction jobs must be seasonal.

[MonctonRad]

Q4 2020 Population Estimates for Atlantic Canada (STATSCAN)

NS - 979,115 (975,231 Q4-2019), +3,884, +0.4%
NB - 781,315 (780,154 Q4-2019), +1,161, +0.15%
NL - 520,998 (524,137 Q4-2019), -3,139, -0.6%
PE - 159,713 (158,334 Q4-2019), +1,379, +0.9%
TOT: - 2,441,141 (2,437,856 Q4-2019), +3,285, +0.13%

The Maritimes alone grew by 6,424 people last year (+0.34%)

- As over the last number of years, PEI remains the region's growth leader in percentage terms.
- Newfoundland continues with a long slow decline.
- Growth in all four provinces has been hampered by the COVID pandemic.

[MonctonRad]

There have been several posts over the last few weeks detailing an evolving exodus from Ontario to Atlantic Canada, especially during this pandemic year. Here's a recent CBC article on the subject:

Young Ontario families moving east help to reverse New Brunswick population drain
N.B. gained a net 2,641 people from Ontario over the last 33 months, the most in 42 years
Robert Jones · CBC News · Posted: Dec 21, 2020 5:00 AM AT | Last Updated: 5 hours ago
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...s-nb-1.5846030

Like a scene from the 1970 Canadian film classic Goin' Down the Road, except with people moving to the Maritimes for a better life instead of away, Jess and Jordan Owens took stock of their priorities in Toronto this summer and decided to pick up and head east.

"There was just a moment where I just said, you know, enough is enough," said Jordan about working from home during the pandemic in a one-bedroom, $1,500-per-month basement apartment with his wife Jess and their toddler Irie.

Last Thursday, Statistics Canada reported 11,987 people have moved to New Brunswick from Ontario since the beginning of 2018.

That's 2,641 more people than moved in the other direction, the largest net transfer of population from Ontario to New Brunswick over that length of time in 42 years, according to Statistics Canada demography analyst Stacey Hallman.

[OliverD]

The estimates for in-migration from Ontario are actually down in 2020 over 2019 though. https://davidwcampbell.com/2020/12/a...new-brunswick/

Unfortunately we don’t have any hard data from Statistics Canada to back this up. The stats agency’s quarterly migration estimates show considerably fewer inward migrants in Q2 and Q3 this year compared to last (7,500 last year, 6,200 this year). The same pattern holds for Nova Scotia (11,200 last year, 9,700 this year). The type of migrant might have changed but the data so far suggests the overall numbers are down. Outward migration from New Brunswick is also down slightly this year compared to last.

It is possible Statistics Canada could be wrong. This is why the data is called an estimate.

[someone123]

I don't think these recent numbers mean much for long-term growth. This is an unusual period and the quarterly numbers have always been volatile due to the short timeframe and small sample size.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think these recent numbers mean much for long-term growth. This is an unusual period and the quarterly numbers have always been volatile due to the short timeframe and small sample size.

I agree to a point. I think we can agree it might mean something for Ontario though. Areas around the GTA and other areas have gotten to the breaking point where the allure of city X is not worth the price for some. I would not bank on this being a permanent things as you say but, it is in no way new. In the recent past more young families just went west, and for the first time the East is seeing some of the benefits of Ontario's out-migration.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

I agree to a point. I think we can agree it might mean something for Ontario though. Areas around the GTA and other areas have gotten to the breaking point where the allure of city X is not worth the price for some. I would not bank on this being a permanent things as you say but, it is in no way new. In the recent past more young families just went west, and for the first time the East is seeing some of the benefits of Ontario's out-migration.

In my circle, the people moving here from ON weren't IN TO but in some of the outlying towns. Their properties rose in value due to people from the city moving there... they in turn cash in and moved here, and live mortgage free. A trickle down, if you will.

[KnoxfordGuy]

From the GNB website:

"...Preliminary results released by the Vital Statistics Office at Service New Brunswick show that 5,403 children were born in the province in 2020...."

That is up from the 5355 in 2019. Data also released from GNB.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

From the GNB website:

"...Preliminary results released by the Vital Statistics Office at Service New Brunswick show that 5,403 children were born in the province in 2020...."

That is up from the 5355 in 2019. Data also released from GNB.

Wonder if the perception is true and covid will lead to more babies born in early 2021 and fewer as the year wears on.

[KnoxfordGuy]

From Stats Can:
Annual population estimates by census metropolitan area, July 1, 2020 (Atlantic)

CMA:
Halifax 448,544
Moncton 158,695
Saint John 131,772
St. John's 214,014

The other big 3

CA:
Fredericton 111,024
Cape Breton 100,711
Charlottetown 80,347

[MonctonRad]

Good stuff.

Hopefully Moncton will make it to 160,000 by 2021 (although the pandemic might intervene).

[JHikka]

2019/2020 Change

Halifax 448,544 (+9,015) (2.0%)
St. John's 214,014 (+810) (0.4%)
Moncton 158,695 (+2,825) (1.8%)
Saint John 131,772 (+722) (0.5%)
Fredericton 111,024 (+1,271) (1.2%)
Cape Breton 100,711 (-303) (-0.3%)
Charlottetown 80,347 (+1,255) (1.6%)
Truro 47,031 (+172) (0.4%)
New Glasgow 34,897 (+54) (0.2%)
Corner Brook 31,936 (-101) (-0.3%)
Bathurst 31,691 (+9) (0.0%)
Kentville 28,196 (381) (1.4%)
Miramichi 27,997 (+62) (0.2%)
Edmundston 23,778 (-117) (-0.5%)
Summerside 18,042 (+211) (1.2%)
Campbellton 15,901 (-77) (-0.5%)
Campbellton (just NB) 12,925 (-88) (-0.7%)
Grand Falls-Windsor 14,250 (-33) (-0.2%)
Gander 13,448 (-54) (-0.4%)
Bay Roberts 11,182 (-27) (-0.2%)

Areas outside CMA/CA 2019-2020

NS 319,972 (+285) (0.1%)
NB 283,594 (-76) (0.0%)
NL 237,273 (-1,968) (-0.8%)
PE 61,236 (+897) (1.5%)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...020003-eng.htm

Oh dear, rural NL.

More detailed economic region/census division stats should be out in February.