2011 Federal Election - Page 4

durandy · #61 Posted **May 2, 2011, 2:47 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelTown

http://www.thespec.com/opinion/edito...ion-by-default

This election, The Spectator’s editorial board feels closest to that latter group. We believe Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are the best and most logical choice to form the next government of Canada.

Wow. Bold move by them considering how well the Conservatives are going to do tomorrow in Hamilton. Shouldn't they really be endorsing David Sweet, Brad Clark, Jim Byron, Terry Anderson and those other shining stars? Or maybe they're going for something more provocative.

SteelTown · #62 Posted **May 2, 2011, 1:18 PM**

Any local predictions?

I think all the MPs will be re-elected, no changes in Hamilton.

Federally I'm predicting a Conservative minority. NDP surge, over 40 seats. NDP and Liberals will have enough seats combined to have a majority.

markbarbera · #63 Posted **May 2, 2011, 3:53 PM**

I doubt any of the seats in the area will be changing over. However, seeing as Ignatieff was in Stoney Creek on Saturday the Libs must think this riding is winnable for them.

Nationally, I am not convinced the NDP surge is going to translate into as many additional seats as the popularity polls suggest. Support for NDP is soft in Quebec and there is still a large undecided number in that province (most provinces actually). The NDP also don't have the organization in Quebec to bring out the vote. I am wondering about vote-splitting gaining an advantage for the Conservatives, but even if it does this will only affect a handful of setas and Con gains in Ont will be countered by losses in Quebec and BC.

I'm predicting the following seat projection (assuming NDP Quebec surge does not translate into seats):

Conservative 136 seats
NDP 67 seats
Liberal 66 seats
BQ 38 seats
Greens 1 seat

If the NDP surge actually is fully realized in Quebec today, then we're looking at a completely different ball game:

Conservative 135 seats
NDP 100 seats
Liberal 64 seats
BQ 8 seats
Greens 1 seat

This would be much more interesting outcome as it may mean finally the end of the BQ.

Either outcome, I am predicting a short-lived minority Conservative government, followed quickly by a NDP/Liberal government alliance similar to the 1985 Ontario Government Liberal/NDP Accord.

Mininari · #64 Posted **May 2, 2011, 3:55 PM**

Vote Quimby.

SteelTown · #65 Posted **May 3, 2011, 1:46 AM**

Very early results so far

Liberal ahead on Hamilton Mountain
NDP ahead in ADFW
NDP ahead in Hamilton Centre

This is only one poll

SteelTown · #66 Posted **May 3, 2011, 1:55 AM**

NDP ahead at Hamilton Mountain, Conservative at 2, Liberal at 3rd.

SteelTown · #67 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:00 AM**

Jack Layton will be the new leader of opposition.

SteelTown · #68 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:07 AM**

Wow NDP gained over 40 seats.

SteelTown · #69 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:16 AM**

NDP way ahead for Hamilton Centre, no surprise.

SteelTown · #70 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:17 AM**

5 seats away for a majority for Harper.

SteelTown · #71 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:27 AM**

Christopherson elected. Marston elected, Charlton leading and Sweet elected.

SteelTown · #72 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:38 AM**

Looks like a Conservative majority.

SteelTown · #73 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:41 AM**

It's a Conservative majority

drpgq · #74 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:46 AM**

Wow. Big numbers for the Tories in Ontario.

SteelTown · #75 Posted **May 3, 2011, 2:48 AM**

Sweet reelected
Charlton reelected
Martson reelected
Allison reelected
Wallace reelected

Everyone got reelected in local ridings.

drpgq · #76 Posted **May 3, 2011, 3:00 AM**

Wow, Ignatieff is losing right now.

markbarbera · #77 Posted **May 3, 2011, 3:03 AM**

Well, Ontarians have a vivid memory of Rae days of the 90's, and the prospect of a possible NDP government shifted a lot of centre-right Lib voters to the Cons in the past 48 hours.

So Harper gets his majority (God help us). At least there's a fixed time for the LPC to reflect and rebuild. A new leader looks to be on the way (Ignatieff currently trailing in his riding), lets hope they get it right this time.

On the silver lining side of things, the NDP explosion in Quebec is wonderful to see as it effectively kills off the BQ. And it looks like Elizabeth May is on her way into the HoC. And, while the majority has been achieved, it is not a sizeable one - and some Conservative ministers have fallen.

mattgrande · #78 Posted **May 3, 2011, 12:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by markbarbera

Well, Ontarians have a vivid memory of Rae days of the 90's, and the prospect of a possible NDP government shifted a lot of centre-right Lib voters to the Cons in the past 48 hours.

And yet, Bob Rae consistently wins his seat...

I'm not happy with a Harper majority, but what an historic election!

1. First new-Conservative majority.
2. NDP becomes official opposition, and make huge gains
3. Liberals drop to third, for the first time ever
4. The possible death of the Bloq
5. The first elected Green MP, dethroning a Cabinet Minister at that!

drpgq · #79 Posted **May 3, 2011, 3:31 PM**

Well I'll take the $10,000 in TFSA room whenever it comes.

markbarbera · #80 Posted **May 3, 2011, 3:45 PM**

Guess you'll have to wait a while to save the $50 off your annual income tax. No TFSA expansion until the budget deficit is eliminated, and the last time a Conservative government reduced a deficit was, well, never.