Could daily intercity passenger rail service be revived across Western Canada?

[Urban_Sky]

Originally Posted by esquire

It's great news, but at the same time the logistics are curious given that it would presumably involve the CP main line, which is a busy freight route that (I'm assuming) can't easily be expanded west of Cochrane.

Much easier to fiddle in a twice-daily tourist/leisure train travelling at freight speeds than an hourly or bi-hourly intercity train traveling at passenger speeds - which is yet another reason why extending this project to Edmonton is guaranteed to escalate its scope beyond what could possibly be secured funding for...

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Urban_Sky

Much easier to fiddle in a twice-daily tourist/leisure train travelling at freight speeds than an hourly or bi-hourly intercity train traveling at passenger speeds - which is yet another reason why extending this project to Edmonton is guaranteed to escalate its scope beyond what could possibly be secured funding for...

The article raises the possibility of up to 8x a day departures each way between Calgary and Banff... that could be enough to add some congestion to the line, particularly given that a passenger train would have to rigidly adhere to the timetable.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by esquire

It's great news, but at the same time the logistics are curious given that it would presumably involve the CP main line, which is a busy freight route that (I'm assuming) can't easily be expanded west of Cochrane.

That's what I've always thought and said, but people have told me otherwise and the most recent study said the same, implying that expanding the track heading into the mountains and Banff NP will be just as easy and cheap as if in open prairie. I don't believe it.

That said, I'd support spending a lot of money on building adjacent track that is publicly owned. If we just end up with a situation where we pay CP for additional capacity and they or another company still owns it, we are idiots as a country. Canada paid for that line 130 years ago, the public should benefit from it.

Calgary-Bow Valley Mass Transit Feasibility Study

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Federal study will look at feasibility of train linking Calgary airport, downtown and Banff

I've always found this the most interesting and appealing rail proposal out of Calgary. Commuter rail to Airdrie would barely get any ridership to fill a few one way trains and is uninspiring, HSR to Edmonton is too expensive and controversial especially for with a provincial government as backwards and small minded as ours.

But a train from the airport to Banff ticks a lot of boxes. It shouldn't be tooooo expensive (though probably still much more expensive than some have claimed), it serves a number of different in both directions purposes - commuting, tourism, leisure travel, and it's actually an interesting idea that most people would probably agree with.

Just a study though of course and I'd bet money that nothing comes of it.

The great part of this is that a group in Banff has already raised most of their goal of $600 million for the construction of this.

There will be stops at Calgary International Airport, Downtown Calgary, Cochrane, Canmore, and Banff. There will be no need for an LRT line to the airport when this proposal includes express trains between YYC and Downtown every 20 minutes.

Here’s the source link for those who are interested... https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...tudy-1.5605293

And another about the fundraised $600 million from 2 years ago... www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4744603

[milomilo]

Yes but that $600M number is horseshit and the claim they've raised it likely it is too. No private company is going to be able or willing to build a lightly used passenger railway in tough terrain through a world heritage site. The only way private companies make such things work is if they attach some other profit making (likely property) onto it, which should not and will not happen.

[Urban_Sky]

Originally Posted by esquire

The article raises the possibility of up to 8x a day departures each way between Calgary and Banff... that could be enough to add some congestion to the line, particularly given that a passenger train would have to rigidly adhere to the timetable.

Leisure travellers want to leave Calgary in the morning and to return in the afternoon/evening (not necessarily of the same day). Tourists want to leave from Calgary airport in the afternoon (i.e. after their flights arrived) and to arrive at the Airport in the morning (i.e. well before their flights leave). I don’t see the point of having more than 2 or 3 trains per day and direction, but insisting on unnecessarily high frequencies is the kind of scope creep which will surely derail this project...

[Chadillaccc]

I’d say a minimum of four times a day, to allow travellers flexibility.

[Urban_Sky]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

I’d say a minimum of four times a day, to allow travellers flexibility.

Which is not needed for leisure travelers. Let's say that 130 km should not take longer than 2 hours (65 km/h average speed). A potential schedule could be:

08:00 dep. Calgary
10:00 arr. Banff

11:00 dep. Banff
13:00 arr. Calgary

16:00 dep. Calgary
18:00 arr. Banff

19:00 dep. Banff
21:00 arr. Calgary

The feasibility of such a schedule obviously depends on what times the popular international flights arrive/leave YYC...

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Urban_Sky

Which is not needed for leisure travelers. Let's say that 130 km should not take longer than 2 hours (65 km/h average speed). A potential schedule could be:

08:00 dep. Calgary
10:00 arr. Banff

11:00 dep. Banff
13:00 arr. Calgary

16:00 dep. Calgary
18:00 arr. Banff

19:00 dep. Banff
21:00 arr. Calgary

The feasibility of such a schedule obviously depends on what times the popular international flights arrive/leave YYC...

There's more potential here though, it's not just travelers from Banff. This could serve as a downtown Calgary airport link (better than the city's LRT plan), it will serve commuters from Canmore and Cochrane and it will serve leisure travelers from Calgary (as you said previously). Additionally, if this is built to the airport it will be trivially easy to add commuter lines north of Calgary. That's scope creep though and it's right to separate that for later.

[foolworm]

Any Calgary-Banff line is going to live or die by tourist traffic; it won't be a commuter / intercity line, or at least it's not going to make up a significant portion of ridership. In any case, such a real link would need a whole suite of associated transit improvements to circulate traffic in communities with stations.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by foolworm

Any Calgary-Banff line is going to live or die by tourist traffic; it won't be a commuter / intercity line, or at least it's not going to make up a significant portion of ridership. In any case, such a real link would need a whole suite of associated transit improvements to circulate traffic in communities with stations.

The commuters won't be from Banff but Canmore/Cochrane. What I like about this line is it serves multiple, complimentary purposes, and anything built with a passenger rail station in Calgary massively improves the business case for other connected lines.

[Urban_Sky]

Originally Posted by milomilo

There's more potential here though, it's not just travelers from Banff. This could serve as a downtown Calgary airport link (better than the city's LRT plan), it will serve commuters from Canmore and Cochrane and it will serve leisure travelers from Calgary (as you said previously). Additionally, if this is built to the airport it will be trivially easy to add commuter lines north of Calgary. That's scope creep though and it's right to separate that for later.

The core of this project is exactly the "downtown Calgary airport link" you are suggesting. Banff-Calgary is just a (costly) add-on:

The 130-kilometre line could see up to eight departures per day from the airport to Banff, with stops in Cochrane, Morley and Canmore, and an express service from the Calgary International Airport to downtown Calgary every 20 minutes.

I guess it's just the experience with the UP Express which forces them to announce its primary purpose as intercity rail rather than downtown-to-airport traffic, but I suspect that their real motivation is the inverse...

[Truenorth00]

For $600M this definitely looks like a feasible idea. At a 5% interest rate (higher than current rates) and a 25 year payback, it's $42M a year in financing and repayment. At 1.5%, it's $29M per year.

If they can manage to get half a million Banff visitors on rail (just under 10% of current visitors), $60 roundtrip would cover financing. Commuter traffic on top of that would probably help them close the business case (covers operating costs). The distance is short enough that 3 trainsets could probably provide bi-hourly bi-directional service for most of the day. The capital costs are mostly about restoring the tracks. This would probably boost Banff's visitor numbers substantially too.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

For $600M this definitely looks like a feasible idea. At a 5% interest rate (higher than current rates) and a 25 year payback, it's $42M a year in financing and repayment. At 1.5%, it's $29M per year.

If they can manage to get half a million Banff visitors on rail (just under 10% of current visitors), $60 roundtrip would cover financing. Commuter traffic on top of that would probably help them close the business case (covers operating costs). The distance is short enough that 3 trainsets could probably provide bi-hourly bi-directional service for most of the day. The capital costs are mostly about restoring the tracks. This would probably boost Banff's visitor numbers substantially too.

That $600M figure was just an estimate from a consulting company. There's no reason to believe it is realistic or not.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Urban_Sky

The core of this project is exactly the "downtown Calgary airport link" you are suggesting. Banff-Calgary is just a (costly) add-on:


I guess it's just the experience with the UP Express which forces them to announce its primary purpose as intercity rail rather than downtown-to-airport traffic, but I suspect that their real motivation is the inverse...

Ah, missed that. IMO I can't see any one function of this railway being worth it on its own, but all of them combined and it looks more attractive.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

That $600M figure was just an estimate from a consulting company. There's no reason to believe it is realistic or not.

Sure. But it does provide an order of magnitude. If CIB gives them a 1% rate and it costs a billion, it is probably still feasible. It's kind of a genius idea actually. Combine airport traffic, commuter traffic from Cochrane and tourist traffic to Banff and Lake Louise on one line. And of those, two categories are higher yielding.

Also, it's 200 km from YYC to Lake Louise. Within range of running low operating cost battery electric trains.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Sure. But it does provide an order of magnitude. If CIB gives them a 1% rate and it costs a billion, it is probably still feasible. It's kind of a genius idea actually. Combine airport traffic, commuter traffic from Cochrane and tourist traffic to Banff and Lake Louise on one line. And of those, two categories are higher yielding.

Also, it's 200 km from YYC to Lake Louise. Within range of running low operating cost battery electric trains.

Yes I agree. My large concern though is if they put this too much in private hands, or allow CP too much ownership. The study I linked to assumes that the government has to pay CP to build the track and then it stays in their ownership with the new operator having some right to use it over some time period. That's just setting ourselves up for future problems, we know that a large part of the problem with passenger railways today is the conflict with the rail monopolies.

[foolworm]

The previous feasibility study concluded that the line needed government funding to work, but also didn't include a YYC connection as part of its envisioned route. Honestly I doubt its inclusion would drastically change things, since if a downtown-airport link was viable the City should have received unsolicited proposals to build it already.

[GoTrans]

Originally Posted by milomilo

Yes I agree. My large concern though is if they put this too much in private hands, or allow CP too much ownership. The study I linked to assumes that the government has to pay CP to build the track and then it stays in their ownership with the new operator having some right to use it over some time period. That's just setting ourselves up for future problems, we know that a large part of the problem with passenger railways today is the conflict with the rail monopolies.

I agree with you here. Either they are going to have to purchase land to create their own ROW or sign an exclusive long term lease ( ie: 99 yr ) with CP to use their ROW but build their own track on the leased land. Any other way will result in on time performance degradation due to control of traffic by CP. Even if CP were a part owner, they would still give their trains preference.

[Urban_Sky]

Originally Posted by GoTrans

I agree with you here. Either they are going to have to purchase land to create their own ROW or sign an exclusive long term lease ( ie: 99 yr ) with CP to use their ROW but build their own track on the leased land.

This is a feasible strategy if you plan to operate frequent trains over an alignment which only shares tracks with CP's transcontinental main route for a small fraction of its route, like the segment between Calgary and YYC Airport (where trains operating every 20 minutes would only share 2 out of the 17 km with CN's transcontinental traffic) or HFR (which would share tracks in the same way for a similar fraction of its total route). However, if the $4.5 million CN charged VIA for adding a track along its Kingston Sub (which I dare to say runs through much less challenging terrain than the Rockies) is any indication, then adding a dedicated track over the 130 km between Calgary and Banff can easily exhaust the total budget of $600 million - and that is before buying any rolling stock or building a single station, siding, maintenance facility, let alone: constructing the airport branch.

Therefore, for "up to eight trains per day" (and much less of that outside the summer season), I would never consider building dedicated tracks, unless I wanted to make sure that it will never get built...

Any other way will result in on time performance degradation due to control of traffic by CP. Even if CP were a part owner, they would still give their trains preference.

You don't seem to comprehend the difference between commuter and intercity travel (where speed matters most) and leisure travel (where it matters much less): If you can comfortably do it in 2h10-2h20 (the scheduled travel time of the Canadian prior to the 1990 cuts) without freight traffic, then just advertise it for 3 hours and nobody will mind waiting for freight trains. The same goes for the frequency: 2 trains per day (one in the morning, one in the afternoon) will be sufficient at the beginning. And if demand really warrants more than what can be achieved on CPs tracks, then just keep accumulating the profits until you can pay for your dedicated infrastructure...!