Quote:
Originally Posted by AviationGuy
Some of our suburbs have become less red, or even blue, over time. Plano, a wealthy suburb of Dallas, was largely blue in 2020, as was Fort Bend County near Houston. Parts of Cypress have become less red, notably the Bridgeland area, where my nephew lives. Some Austin suburbs that were previously solid red have become blue. I don't have much hope for places like The Woodlands, though.
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Not only has Fort Bend County turned blue in 2016, but in the 2020 election, so did Williamson County and Hays County, which are the counties immediately north and south of Austin. And Tarrant County (containing Ft. Worth) went blue for the first time since 1964. Denton County saw the Dems crack 45%, their best performance there since 1976. And Collin County, once famously the most conservative suburban county in the US according to many pundits, saw Biden get almost 47% of the vote, something unheard of only 15 years ago.
In the flip side, the Dems have collapsed in the rural counties of Texas, to the point where in some districts the party hasn't even put up a challenger to the GOP. However many of those counties are either in a consistent population decline, or their growth is just too slow compared to the suburban counties that are turning more purple. That's how Biden was able to but Trump's lead in half, and Hillary was able to cut the GOP's lead from 2012 by almost 7%.
Only part of this is due to migration, and people keep forgetting this. A lot of these new blue voters have been living here for a while and used to vote for the GOP. But as the Republicans have shifted from a right-wing party focused on trickle-down economics into a far-right party focused not on policy, but on culture warriors, educated suburban voters are less interested. They largely support lgbt rights. They are increasingly pro-choice. They embrace diversity. Polling shows a majority of suburban voters view immigration as a net positive for the country. They see having more women in power as a good thing. They tend to be more educated on the history of race in the US, so these intense battles against so-called Critical Race Theory are a big turn-off. They're still fiscally conservative: supportive of tax cuts, NOT supportive of people joining labor unions, skeptical of ideas like universal healthcare and stronger workplace protections. But those ideas are not where the GOP and their giant, well-funded media infrastructure are swaying the public conversation. It's all about culture wars now, so these voters are more comfortable sitting on the rightward flank of the Democratric Party than being called communists and child groomers for sitting at the leftward flank of a Republican Party that has declared them the enemy for thinking their gay cousin should be able to get married and live openly.
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