Americans are moving out of urban counties like never before

[mhays]

We know that many COVID-era shifts were temporary because we're already seeing reversals of some trends. But we don't have a clear idea about the new normal, and won't for a while, particularly for offices and the people who work in them.

Yes it's absolutely disingenuous to phrase any 2021 stat as current.

[tdawg]

Totally agree with mhays. I personally know several couples who sold their Manhattan apartments during the pandemic (not that it's over) to move upstate but have recently moved back into the city.

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

I just want to point out that crime is only an "inner city" issue in what I consider the "traditional" big cities like New York and Chicago.

In younger, newer cities in Texas and Florida there are ghetto areas in older suburbs that did not age well. I predict that ongoing gentrification of the core will make such neighborhoods the most prominent concentrations of poverty and crime in these metro areas. These are still in the core urban counties but are not urban. For example, in Houston, a population exodus from an area like Greenspoint caused by demolition of aging rental properties and general craptitude of that area counts against Harris County. But Harris County is so big it even still has farms in one far corner of it. Conversely because Montgomery County is only a fraction of Harris County's size it can grow less in an absolute sense and post big percentage numbers. In reality Greenspoint was developed around 1975-1990. As you go more into the city, the North side of Houston gets nicer the more dense and older it gets until you reach the gentrified core neighborhoods like the Heights.

Also desire for space is misleading. My sister and her family lives in Rockwall which is a kind of upper-middle class, very conservative outer edge suburb of Dallas. Their house they just bought new last year has a very tiny yard and the houses aren't actually that big in terms of square footage. They are the same narrow lot homes they build in every other expensive hot real estate market like outer Toronto or Portland or Florida or whatever just with a regionally appropriate aesthetic. In contrast, if you went into the "hood" areas like Mesquite or East Dallas the houses are all big late 1950s ranches just like from the show King of the Hill, with enormous yards full of trees and everything is very green.

There are still plenty of white folks in places like Mesquite, Irving, Garland, or Arlington. Crime scares the hell out of them, and rightly so.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

Complete article at https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/...1&guccounter=1

I think you will still see a steady gain in desirable rural counties from Remote workers who want to live in that kind of environment.

It doesnt take a lot of people moving to a rural county to make a huge difference.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

I just want to point out that crime is only an "inner city" issue in what I consider the "traditional" big cities like New York and Chicago.

In younger, newer cities in Texas and Florida there are ghetto areas in older suburbs that did not age well. I predict that ongoing gentrification of the core will make such neighborhoods the most prominent concentrations of poverty and crime in these metro areas. These are still in the core urban counties but are not urban. For example, in Houston, a population exodus from an area like Greenspoint caused by demolition of aging rental properties and general craptitude of that area counts against Harris County. But Harris County is so big it even still has farms in one far corner of it. Conversely because Montgomery County is only a fraction of Harris County's size it can grow less in an absolute sense and post big percentage numbers. In reality Greenspoint was developed around 1975-1990. As you go more into the city, the North side of Houston gets nicer the more dense and older it gets until you reach the gentrified core neighborhoods like the Heights.

Also desire for space is misleading. My sister and her family lives in Rockwall which is a kind of upper-middle class, very conservative outer edge suburb of Dallas. Their house they just bought new last year has a very tiny yard and the houses aren't actually that big in terms of square footage. They are the same narrow lot homes they build in every other expensive hot real estate market like outer Toronto or Portland or Florida or whatever just with a regionally appropriate aesthetic. In contrast, if you went into the "hood" areas like Mesquite or East Dallas the houses are all big late 1950s ranches just like from the show King of the Hill, with enormous yards full of trees and everything is very green.

Houston is developing a sizable "donut" of suburbia that's rotting away sandwiched between expensive areas inside/ just outside the loop and stable upper middle class outer suburbs. Here in Kingwood which is a pretty nice (if boring AF) area, I have to cut though the post apocalyptic NE side before I reach the greater Heights area or downtown.

This phenomenon is more or less mirroring many European cities. There's some sketchy areas between central London/ Paris and their more affluent far flung suburbs.

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by JManc

Houston is developing a sizable "donut" of suburbia that's rotting away sandwiched between expensive areas inside/ just outside the loop and stable upper middle class outer suburbs. Here in Kingwood which is a pretty nice (if boring AF) area, I have to cut though the post apocalyptic NE side before I reach the greater Heights area or downtown.

This phenomenon is more or less mirroring many European cities. There's some sketchy areas between central London/ Paris and their more affluent far flung suburbs.

This is more or less happening in South Florida as well, except, instead of a donut, it's a sandwich because of the geography. Urban/Beachside/Eastside and the western gated exburbs are thriving while the bologna in the middle is rotting. However there are exceptions.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

This is more or less happening in South Florida as well, except, instead of a donut, it's a sandwich because of the geography. Urban/Beachside/Eastside and the western gated exburbs are thriving while the bologna in the middle is rotting. However there are exceptions.

Not so much rotting as "owned by aging empty nesters who's kids have moved away" so the population keeps dropping in those areas. Some neighborhoods may have half their population die in the next 10 years as the baby boomers die off.

[urban_encounter]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I wish this would be reflected in home prices and rental rates. Home prices are soaring in our urban counties even now, as people are supposedly fleeing.

You’re talking apple and oranges. California could lose 500k people and it’s possible that we wouldn’t see a blip in the costs of home prices or rentals. After the ‘Great Recession’ new housing starts didn’t keep pace.

Secondly, people aren’t “supposedly fleeing”. Static’s show there are a lot of Californians migrating out of certain California population centers. Given the new remote work realities, it’s entirely possible we’ll see a lot more. It’s also possible there will be a migration moving into those population centers at some point, to take their place.

____

According to the L.A. Times, San Diego County’s recent net population loss was under 1% —( 0.3%) — of its 3.28 million residents.

Los Angeles County lost nearly 160,000 people, a 1.6% decline. San Francisco shed 55,800 people, or 6.3%. Santa Clara County (encompasses Silicon Valley), lost 45,000 people, or 2.3%.

I won’t post everything from the article but here’s the link.


http://www.latimes.com/california/st...igh-costs-move