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  #1  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2023, 12:59 PM
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Best Economy In US May Move From NYC And San Francisco

Sorry, New York and San Francisco: These 4 red-state cities could be the future of America


Nov 15, 2023

By Jacob Zinkula

Read More: https://www.businessinsider.com/best...nesses-2023-11

Quote:
The future of the US economy could be powered by cities in the Sunbelt. Economic and societal power in the US may be shifting away from colossal coastal cities such as New York and San Francisco to metropolitan areas tucked below the Mason-Dixon line, as Barron's recently reported. That's because economic power is flowing to the middle of the country — and places such as Houston, Dallas, Nashville, and Miami are becoming hot spots.

- Just as New York City has Wall Street and San Francisco has Silicon Valley, Houston has its energy economy and Miami has its proximity to Latin America and growing financial industry. And while Los Angeles has Hollywood and Washington, DC, has politics, Dallas has a blossoming environment of diversified business behemoths and Nashville is a healthcare and tech hub. --- "You used to have two coastal power zones where you could live your best life, never really touching down in the red states," Niall Ferguson, a Stanford historian, told Barron's. "We now have much more of a multipolar America rather than a bipolar America. That reflects taxes, quality of life, cost of living, the ability to build, and incredibly striking differentials in quality of governance."

- Despite the economic gains, the advancements of these cities will probably come with some obstacles. To varying degrees, these cities are already getting a glimpse of how high housing costs can plague an area with surging demand. What's more, these southern metros and their high temperatures could also face future challenges tied to the climate crisis. Miami, in particular, could be vulnerable. Meanwhile, it could be a battle over bragging rights in the years to come between the coastal cities and Sunbelt metros as to which offers the most economic power.

Houston:

- Major energy companies such as ExxonMobil, Phillips 66, and ConocoPhillips call the city home, and, as a result, as much as 40% of Houston's economy is tied directly or indirectly to oil and gas. But renewable energy could provide economic opportunities if the city is open to the transition. Time reported on data from McKinsey that suggested by 2040, Houston could receive $250 billion in annual investments tied to the emerging energy industry because of its existing infrastructure and skilled workforce. Home to NASA, Houston is also poised to be the center of the space industry.

Dallas:

- Since 2010, more than 175 companies have moved their headquarters to the North Texas area that includes Dallas. And other business behemoths are expanding to the city. Goldman Sachs, for example, has said it plans to add about 5,000 jobs in Dallas once its new regional office is completed. Steve Hagerman, the chief technology officer at Wells Fargo, previously told Business Insider during a time when some companies were struggling to find workers that Dallas was offering a growing cohort of "prime working age" individuals who were between the ages of 23 and 38. The city also offers many graduates with tech degrees, which could position it to grow as a tech hub.

Miami:

- While the city's crypto boom hasn't gone according to plan, other companies in the finance industry have flocked to the city as well, including the hedge funds Elliot Management and Citadel. Given its proximity to Latin America, Miami also is home to the headquarters of more than 1,100 multinational corporations. In the years ahead, strong immigration levels to the city could continue to boost its workforce and economic growth. Miami is also a popular destination for tourists and the wealthy. A report from the consulting firm Henley and Partners said that from 2012 to 2022, the number of Miami millionaires grew by 75%, one of the fastest rates in the country.

Nashville:

- Nashville was ranked as the top city in the US for job opportunities and earnings potential in an analysis by the HR firm Checkr released earlier this year. In May, the Milken Institute's rankings of the nation's best-performing cities — based on labor-market performance and economic opportunities — put Nashville at number four. "While Nashville is a well-known and popular tourist destination, its economy is bolstered by more than just the music and hospitality industries," the report said. The city, which has been named the healthcare capital of the US, is home to more than 500 companies in the industry, including 17 public healthcare companies. The industry accounts for roughly 570,000 jobs in the Nashville area. Nashville also has the potential to grow its tech industry. Amazon and Oracle are among the firms that have invested in the city in recent years.

.....
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  #2  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2023, 1:28 PM
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Miami, Houston and Dallas ok, but why not Atlanta in the place of Nashville?
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  #3  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2023, 2:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Fabricio JF View Post
Miami, Houston and Dallas ok, but why not Atlanta in the place of Nashville?
Because Atlanta would not exactly fit the headline of the article - red states. Off the cuff, it seems to be a cherry-pick analysis (when you start with your supposition then find data to support it). It seems the analysis started with the most red Sunbelt states (TX, FL, TN) and then chose cities from them.
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  #4  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2023, 3:25 PM
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I’m going to ignore that other cities so I stay nice, and just comment on how much Nashville impressed me on the last drive we made through there. We didn’t even have to get off the freeway to see all the progress. That’s how all the cities in this country should look. To be like SF, NYC, Chicago, would be a more ambitious goal.
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  #5  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2023, 7:25 PM
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Austin seems more economically vibrant than either Dallas or Houston...
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  #6  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2023, 8:09 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Austin seems more economically vibrant than either Dallas or Houston...
I don't know about that. Austin has the "hot" companies like Tesla, TikTok, Google and Meta that appeal to young graduates and get all the attention lately but Houston and DFW have bigger/ more dynamic economies.
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  #7  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2023, 8:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Xing View Post
I’m going to ignore that other cities so I stay nice, and just comment on how much Nashville impressed me on the last drive we made through there. We didn’t even have to get off the freeway to see all the progress. That’s how all the cities in this country should look. To be like SF, NYC, Chicago, would be a more ambitious goal.

Nashville was a very small city in the 1950s, and so it was not allocated the funds to build an interstate circle freeway. By the time a loop was needed, any practical route had been blocked by sprawl. This has forced almost all of the higher-profile stuff to be built in the downtown or very close to it, because downtown is the only spot accessible by the entire region.
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  #8  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2023, 8:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Fabricio JF View Post
Nashville with its 2 million people and appearance more like a typical regional city, like Cincinnati, for example.
Cincinnati effectively has a little more than 3 million people since Dayton ought to be part of its MSA but isn't. Same issue with Cleveland/Akron.

By contrast, Nashville is pretty isolated. There aren't any small satellite cities to speak of in the bordering counties or any counties that border a county that borders Davidson County.
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  #9  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2023, 9:53 PM
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Those coastal areas need to get serious about building housing. If they continue to price folks out, it will only result in people leaving those areas or reconsidering, which will limit the potential of the local or regional economy.

Places like the tri-state, Boston, California as examples... they are really limiting themselves by not making the RE situation favorable for existing and newcomers. Folks will move to greener pastures due to prices and the cost of doing business and this naturally in the long run will limit the TRUE potential for some of the U.S.'s older regions, which is unfortunate.

Talent, tax payers... moving to different regions from a long term perspective is not good. I'd rather have a situation where folks stay in California, stay in NYC, stay in the Boston metro and not flock to the sunbelt or Midwest. And if they do, thats a gap for certain regions to look at and try to improve for retention purposes...

It really pains me to see somewhat anemic growth in the coastal areas because we just don't build enough and allow future generations to flourish. A gated community region in the end will stagnate and not truly boom. Imagine if we built enough housing, what certain regions would be like now? It sucks to think that... the wasted potential. The gaps that force folks to move ... all that talent... all those tax payers.
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  #10  
Old Posted Nov 19, 2023, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
I don't know about that. Austin has the "hot" companies like Tesla, TikTok, Google and Meta that appeal to young graduates and get all the attention lately but Houston and DFW have bigger/ more dynamic economies.
Silicon Hills?
*Austin has hills doesen't it? Been to all the other big Texas cities except it.
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  #11  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 12:53 AM
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Originally Posted by TWAK View Post
Silicon Hills?
*Austin has hills doesen't it? Been to all the other big Texas cities except it.
Silicon Hills is an actually common monicker for Austin:



https://www.reddit.com/r/Austin/comm...dge/?rdt=46444

Skyline is ~6 years old, maybe more.

This type of landscape is common (photo from Bandera):



https://www.reddit.com/r/TexasViews/...ar_bandera_tx/

Garner State Park is also the same geography as Austin.





https://www.reddit.com/r/TXoutdoors/...verybody_says/

Nearby is Enchanted Rock:

https://imgur.com/yJcgE.jpg

https://www.reddit.com/r/geology/com...s_exfoliation/

Just outside Austin is Hamilton Pool:



https://www.reddit.com/r/EarthPorn/c...n_texas_looks/

And Colorado Bend State Park:



https://www.reddit.com/r/TXoutdoors/...amazing_views/

Some waterfall photos:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TXoutdoors/...colorado_bend/



https://www.reddit.com/r/texas/comme...s_bluebonnets/

And Doeskin Ranch, in Balcones Canyonlands Natl Wildlife Refuge immediately outside of Austin’s suburbs:



https://www.reddit.com/r/TXoutdoors/...doeskin_ranch/
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BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
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  #12  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 1:46 AM
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Quote:
Best Economy In US May Move From NYC And San Francisco
Awesome!

Now let's see when/if it happens.

¡Con mucho mucho amor!

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  #13  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 6:16 AM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
It really pains me to see somewhat anemic growth in the coastal areas because we just don't build enough and allow future generations to flourish.

The slowdown in new construction since the 2008 housing collapse has been a boon for preservation all across the country. Out in the hinterlands, it's hard to find a vacant house these days - a complete turnaround from 12-15 years ago, when cities were demolishing 100+ prewar "starter" homes every year if not every month.

Even where I live in Ohio, new roofs are being slapped on houses that would have been left to collapse back during the Obama years. Pretty much *everything* is getting saved now.
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  #14  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 3:05 PM
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^^^^^

One can hope once rates go down and if the cost of materials is driven down (if), with some of these local and statewide housing requirements and quotas being put in place within the last 3-4 years, that we will see an uptick.

This gap in supply is really a boon for some coastal areas. One would hope once the cost of construction goes down, some of these communities will find it easier to meet these quotas. I'm especially looking at the 2.5 million new housing units that California wants to build by 2030. I'll say this... if California can achieve this, by 2030... or come close to that goal... it could very well serve as a model for the nation... IF its successful. It's just what the older regions need, new stock... new entries into the region for newcomers or people that might not have the luxury of generational wealth. If we fix housing in those regions and mitigate the cost of living... the regions will boom from a long term perspective. And not just housing but for businesses... start ups... you name it.
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  #15  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 4:05 PM
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
Nashville was a very small city in the 1950s, and so it was not allocated the funds to build an interstate circle freeway. By the time a loop was needed, any practical route had been blocked by sprawl. This has forced almost all of the higher-profile stuff to be built in the downtown or very close to it, because downtown is the only spot accessible by the entire region.
That never stopped a Rust Belt city lol.
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  #16  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 4:49 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
That never stopped a Rust Belt city lol.
Nashville doesn't even have an arc bypass, let alone a full loop. It just has six expressway spokes that converge downtown.

440 and Briley Parkway are arc expressways that fail to function as either bypasses or sprawl generators because of their closeness to downtown and weird geometry. 840 is too far out to generate sprawl. Also, some of the exit interchanges (especially Williamson County) have hardcore zoning that has kept everything away, including gas stations. That section of 840 has been open for ten years and not a single anything has been built near any of the new interchanges.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bo...t5hb?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bo...t5hb?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bo...t5hb?entry=ttu
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Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 6:00 PM
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
Nashville doesn't even have an arc bypass, let alone a full loop. It just has six expressway spokes that converge downtown.

440 and Briley Parkway are arc expressways that fail to function as either bypasses or sprawl generators because of their closeness to downtown and weird geometry. 840 is too far out to generate sprawl. Also, some of the exit interchanges (especially Williamson County) have hardcore zoning that has kept everything away, including gas stations. That section of 840 has been open for ten years and not a single anything has been built near any of the new interchanges.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bo...t5hb?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bo...t5hb?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bo...t5hb?entry=ttu
840 is the bypass. It being too far out to generate sprawl was likely a strategy meant to forestall traffic on said bypass.
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HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)
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  #18  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 7:20 PM
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Originally Posted by wwmiv View Post
840 is the bypass. It being too far out to generate sprawl was likely a strategy meant to forestall traffic on said bypass.

Most circumferential bypasses are 5-12 miles from their respective downtowns and measure less than 60 miles in length. 840 is 22-25 miles from DT Nashville and just the completed half is about 75 miles long. The whole thing will be WAY over 100 miles.

Again, Nashville was tiny back in 1960, like a quarter of the size of the cities that got full bypasses. It was significantly smaller than Memphis (a city that nobody talks about) until very recently.

Wealthy Williamson County, specifically, blocked the path for a much more useful loop highway, and set the stage for Nashville to become a total anomaly amongst auto-centric U.S. metro areas.

Beyond the draconian zoning in Williamson County, rugged Cheatham County, Percy Priest Lake, and other factors are conspiring to force unusually dense construction in and adjacent to DT Nashville, which was a sad sleepy place up until 15 years ago.
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Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 9:43 PM
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Sacramento doesn't have a freeway loop either. It has a partial bypass that carries east-west interstate (80) traffic around the central city, but that's it. No bypass for the 50, the 99, or for north-south interstate traffic on the 5.
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  #20  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2023, 10:27 PM
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Seems like in general California doesn't have traditional loops. A few routes might end up making one, though, like 280-680/880.
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