DENVER | Transportation Thread

[Cirrus]

Speaking of Texas, Austin will take a Nashville-like light rail+downtown subway plan to voters. Hopefully with a better outcome.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Speaking of Texas, Austin will take a Nashville-like light rail+downtown subway plan to voters. Hopefully with a better outcome.

I knew this was brewing and there are some interesting parallels to Nashville. It will be more of an urban-focused plan and they're looking at a range of proposals between $5 and $10 billion. There's also similarities between Denver and Austin. Actually, Austin has grown faster and now is the 11th largest city with nearly one million residents.

Timing is everything and the timing should be good. Austin needs to do something. But since this is a city based plan and not metro, it will be up to the city voters to approve and fund whatever they propose. I suspect they'll stick closer to the $5 billion figure. Maybe one light rail line, expansion of their existing (freight line) commuter rail, a bunch of BRT plus misc bike/pedestrian infrastructure is what I'd guess.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Timing is everything and the timing should be good. Austin needs to do something. But since this is a city based plan and not metro, it will be up to the city voters to approve and fund whatever they propose. I suspect they'll stick closer to the $5 billion figure. Maybe one light rail line, expansion of their existing (freight line) commuter rail, a bunch of BRT plus misc bike/pedestrian infrastructure is what I'd guess.

CapMetro is pretty much Austin- hence why they are going to discuss with that city for the local funding. Austin is about 70% of the population of the Greater Austin Metro and looks to be ~85% of the CapMetro service area population. The parallel between Austin and Denver is less clear given Austin's massive economic and population superiority while Denver's is clearly less so.

[Cirrus]

Do we need to have the conversation about why city limit populations are generally trash as a means of comparison between cities?

I will grant that the size of the city's budget is one way in which city limit populations do matter.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Do we need to have the conversation about why city limit populations are generally trash as a means of comparison between cities?

I will grant that the size of the city's budget is one way in which city limit populations do matter.

I was thinking more so of the political/economic impact on the metro that Austin has versus Denver. Both have an oversized influence, but Austin totally dominates their metro while Denver is less so. There's a ton of other factors that should be considered, but population was simply the easiest metric to use as a crude covariance.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

CapMetro is pretty much Austin- hence why they are going to discuss with that city for the local funding. Austin is about 70% of the population of the Greater Austin Metro and looks to be ~85% of the CapMetro service area population. The parallel between Austin and Denver is less clear given Austin's massive economic and population superiority while Denver's is clearly less so.

Excellent!

I just went from knowing that the Austin City Council would determined the proposal. But I never really knew/understood the transit area. Turns out using the right key words makes a difference. So now I'm caught up. For spit balling you were close enough.

Austin city population: 932,000 (or 72% of)
Cap Metro population: 1.3 million (or 60% of)
Metro Austin population: 2.17 million

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Do we need to have the conversation about why city limit populations are generally trash as a means of comparison between cities?

If you feel like pontificating go right ahead.

I was thinking of the tax base is all and now that I've found the data it's interesting.

• Cap Metro has a population base of 1.3 million or 42% of RTD's base of 3.1 million.
• Cap Metro has operating budget of $287 million or 37% of RTD's $777 million.
• Cap Metro has a capital budget of $110 million compared to RTD's $460 million.
• Cap Metro has 32% of the annual boardings as RTD

Both Cap Metro and RTD collect a 1% sales tax. It appears Denver is getting more bang so I'll guess that Austin may have sales tax exceptions that Denver doesn't have. In any case Austin isn't showing much ridership for their 1% sales tax.

Now consider what Austin wants to achieve versus what Denver already has for the same 1% sales tax. Oh my goodness.

Admittedly if I looked at per capita numbers (which allows Austin more of an urban focus) it may look a bit better but still... They still need to spend a lot of money and how are they going to find that revenue? I still can't get over how little they're getting for their 1% sales tax.

[TakeFive]

Trust the Process*
* is a sports idiom born out of the NBA's Philly 76's franchise. Just ask Joel Embiid.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200...0-transit-bond

Light rail has emerged as the likely candidate for an ambitious transit plan that could be put before voters this November. Capital Metro is proposing the city build two new transit lines that could reach $10.3 billion to build if the Austin City Council opts to pursue light rail, a type of urban train system.

I assume the $10.3 billion would include some tunneling which is undecided. Actually there's a lot that's still undecided.

That’s far more expensive than a bus rapid transit system that also is proposed under Project Connect... In comparison, rail would offer much more potential for passenger growth. Maximum capacity for ridership on a bus rapid transit system would be reached less than a decade from when the system is completed — a fact that doomed it as an option.

Bus rapid transit “does not work ... and the analysis shows that now,” Council Member Jimmy Flannigan said. “It doesn’t have the capacity we need.” The analysis and cost figures were laid out Tuesday at a joint meeting of the Austin City Council and Capitol Metro’s board at City Hall.

The Orange Line - would be 21 miles with 16 stations.
The Blue Line - of unknown length would go the airport* and have 15 stations. The map makes it look to be of comparable length to the Orange Line.
* Record year set at airport in 2018 with 15.8 million passengers flying through the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.

You can see the map here. The Blue line is the light blue line on this map; the Orange Line is Orange. These will be street ROW lines from what I can tell which in the urban core is nice. Once they get into the suburbs it's a mixed bag.

The proposed bus service is all over the map with a smorgasbord of improvements.

I'll guess they settle ~$8 billion. Yeah, Austin is very upscale (downtown) but it should be fun to see what their funding scheme is.

[TakeFive]

Over here, over there, it's gotta go somewhere

AECOM won a preliminary engineering contract for the Orange Line last April. As most cities have done the Orange Line would replace a popular bus route.

https://www.austinmonitor.com/storie...ty-priorities/

As noted Wednesday by Jerry Smiley, AECOM’s Orange Line project manager, the popular 801 route that now serves the corridor “is only as good as the traffic that it operates in.”

The Orange Line, on the other hand, is intended to move more efficiently than private vehicles can, especially during peak traffic hours. To make that possible, Smiley explained, the agency is considering four different profiles at every point along the route... Each profile – running at, above or below street level in either a bored tunnel or a partially covered roadway – has unique pros and cons.

For example, he said, “While at street level, it’s maybe a little bit less cost-intensive, it can only go as fast as the posted speed limit.” In contrast, the other three options may come at a “much higher cost from a capital perspective,” but can offer “very significant” operational efficiency savings.

The disadvantages of using a street alignment are obvious.

Speed, in particular, was a major advantage of grade separation often discussed Wednesday. While elevated or below-ground light rail cars could theoretically run at speeds up to 55 mph, according to AECOM’s Julia Suprock, vehicles at the surface would be constrained not only by speed limits, but potentially by traffic at intersections and other obstacles on the street.

If they decide on two light rail lines totaling 40 miles and if it costs $150 million per mile then that's $6 billion. Depending on grade separation decisions it could easily go higher.

Portland's newest SW plan is closer to $250 million a mile but I'd guess Austin could come closer to Phoenix costs which are ~$150 million a mile. AECOM is doing the design work and Kiewit is the contractor on the line which recently started construction in Phoenix.

Phoenix has done a lot of below grade freeways (especially thru Scottsdale) and it may not be much more than above grade separation. The advantage Phoenix has over Austin is not only did they get FTA funding but MAG (metro area) also contributes funding for transit.

I wish em luck; they really do need to do something.

[TakeFive]

Something interesting I learned today

Between 2017 and 2018 Phoenix Metro light rail ridership was down 863,000. Through 3 quarters of 2019 ridership is on a pace to be down another 517,000 in 2019. Good guess that rideshare is one factor; the other factor is the homeless love to ride the rails.

Quick check of Los Angeles and their light rail is down 20% through 3 quarters. Good chance that rideshare PLUS the homeless are factors. It could also be partly the same 'counting affliction' that affected Denver.

[TakeFive]

Before Seattle, Portland has long been a champion of transit and biking, etc.

Note: couple of years ago the head of Portland TriMet along with the Dem governor joined in deciding some road widening was needed. For many, this is a cardinal sin.

Portland being the poster child-city I found this survey instructive.

https://bikeportland.org/2020/01/16/...de-pbot-309764

“In addition to a fear of the homeless population and overcrowding,” the report continues, “Portlanders are driven to take their cars because of dirty streets and unmodernized public transportation assets.”

Anything more specific?

Another finding that stood out was how often focus group attendees mentioned a fear of strangers as the reason they choose to drive.

“I can control who’s in my space when I’m in my car, and I don’t have to worry about someone random bashing me in the back of my head while I’m driving… When you don’t know people, they could look completely normal, and next thing you know…” said one person. “I was one of the people that was on the MAX when [the stabbing happened]. Right after that is when I got my car,” said another.

In Phoenix, light rail runs from Tempe with ASU's 55,000 students into downtown Phoenix with its 10,000 student ASU extension. Whether for classes or for fun, I've read that many ASU students (now) prefer to drive and avoid the 'unpleasant' experience on light rail.

I also read recently where BART has started frequent checks to verify paying passengers and has received a lot of (relieved) positive feedback from paying passengers.

Food for thought.

[TakeFive]

Interesting BRT comparison

Gold Line bus-rapid transit project between St. Paul, Woodbury clears federal hurdle
JANUARY 21, 2020 by By Janet Moore - Star Tribune

The Gold Line, a $461 million bus-rapid transit project that will serve the east metro, cleared a key hurdle Tuesday after federal officials found the 10-mile line won’t significantly affect the environment.

Basically not quite a half-billion $'s for 10 miles of BRT. Presumably, a credible BRT project as apposed to a pretender?

The Gold Line will be the state’s first true bus-rapid transit line, with buses operating largely in dedicated lanes north of Interstate 94. Project Manager Christine Beckwith called the service “light rail on rubber tires. You won’t even need a schedule; the bus will arrive every 10 to 15 minutes like light rail.”

[Sam Hill]

On Virginia Avenue, some Denverites want to throw a speed bump under a planned bike lane

[twister244]

A couple train-related articles:

One advocating for more rail to the slopes - https://www.denverpost.com/2020/01/2...untain-trains/

Another on one private company's pitch to get passenger rail to Boulder/Longmont - https://www.denverpost.com/2020/01/2...rado-rail-rtd/

[TakeFive]

Peak versus off-peak trends

Bay Area traffic is terrible, so why are fewer people taking transit?
January 24, 2020 By NICO SAVIDGE - Bay Area News Group

Some of this is merely a recap of what we already know that in recent years transit ridership has been falling.
Note: 2019 data tends to show a more stable or improving picture.

The steepest ridership drops came during “off-peak” hours — on nights and weekends, when most people are not using the services to get to and from their jobs. While the number of public transit trips during peak commute hours fell by 2.4 percent between 2016 and 2018 in the Bay Area, it dropped by 10.2 percent during noncommute hours.

“It’s trips that are not made for work,” Wasserman said in an interview, for which riders are passing on transit and may be driving instead. “If you are outside of a dense central area, transit just isn’t competitive,” Wasserman said.

I have picked up on this trend in other places also; the one exception seems to be Houston where their re-done bus routes better serve more urban corridors that Houstonians will use on weekends.

Most of this is common sense, I'd think. But if you want to more efficiently deploy your assets then it's instructive.

Houston merely suggests that certain 'high priority' corridors like Colfax or Federal deserve better service. Both these streets aren't strictly commuter corridors and get a more generalized ridership beyond commuting.

[TakeFive]

Read it and weep

This New Bill Wants To Make RTD Healthier And More Accountable. Will It Work?
January 28, 2020 By Nathaniel Minor - CPR

The bill would also integrate parts of the federal Civil Rights Act and the Americans with Disability Act into state law, which would allow civil lawsuits against RTD for discriminatory practices to be filed in state court. Victorious plaintiffs would also be eligible for more monetary damages than are possible under current law.

From the sublime to the ridiculous.

[The Dirt]

Will it pass? No.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by The Dirt

Will it pass? No.

As is? Probably not, but something will pass that deals with RTD's issues. The legislature has to appear to care about mass transit and what better to show said concern than giving the disabled even more leverage?

Pretty soon RTD will consist of some shitty train lines and 1,000 Access-A-Ride vans.

[CastleScott]

Hi all Denver forumers as a lurker who always checks out posts on here and I've noticed that the situation of RTD's plight has been a big topic on here. Well one of my best friends is putting his hat in the ring for one of the appointed positions that may come about, he's a former RTD board member who was first appointed back in 1977 by then Gov Richard Lamm-stayed on until the elected board took office in 1981. He was then Elected from his home Northglenn in 1986-reelected in 1990 and stayed till 1994. His name is Kevin Robert Sampson and he's an avid transit supporter and started many bus routes in the northern metro and he supported the start of the light rail service (the MAC line as what it was called back in the early 90s). My friend lives in SW Denver (Bear Valley) now and he does take the C/D line a lot and rides buses as well. Just something I want to share.

Thanks guys and gals

[iNfill]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Nice Joe Everyman piece. Too bad it doesn't actually say whether 15th Street is choked in traffic and the poor drivers are forced to use the bus lane out of desperation or drivers simply lack the cognitive ability to understand what a bus only lane is for and just drive down it.


I'm going with the latter.

I know this is old. But I drive down 15th a few times a week at night, when there is 0 traffic, and for some reason there seems to be more cars on the bus lane...when with two other lanes near empty. It's like they think it's a free express lane.

[TakeFive]

Back to Square One

OPINION | Time to reassess the premise of public transit?
Feb 3, 2020 By Miller Hudson - Colorado Politics

An easy-to-read look at transit with a few interesting points.

"This trend has been cropping up at transit properties across the country. We may be looking at RTD’s problems through the wrong end of the telescope. Are there changes in our economy and employment patterns pulling passengers out of their seats?” she suggested.

Miller mentions the gig economy and "all those Millennials" working out of shared spaces.

At least he highlights the biggest and most obvious obstacle with transit. It's also worthwhile to analyze this in the context of today's Millennials (et al) since they set the trend - or help to define the problem.

Public transit has always faced a “first mile/last mile” challenge. Getting to the train and then walking to the office from the train can be an issue — even more so in bad weather.

The conservative take is provided by Joshua Sharf with the Independence Institute.
The one thing worth noting:

A recent study commissioned by the board showed Denver being subsidized by the ring counties, with the largest subsidies coming from Jefferson, Douglas, and Adams Counties.

I had assumed this. I just wasn't aware it had been studied.