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  #41  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 5:41 PM
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According to the T&T, there's gonna be a announcement tomorrow on a Atlantic bubble
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  #42  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 5:58 PM
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According to the T&T, there's gonna be a announcement tomorrow on a Atlantic bubble
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...........

Seriously, the time has come to do this.

The only province at risk of being excluded is NB, but the only two outbreaks we have (Campbellton region & amongst temporary foreign workers in the southeast) seem contained. Hopefully our partners in PEI and NS will agree.
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  #43  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 6:05 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...........

Seriously, the time has come to do this.

The only province at risk of being excluded is NB, but the only two outbreaks we have (Campbellton region & amongst temporary foreign workers in the southeast) seem contained. Hopefully our partners in PEI and NS will agree.
According to the article, Premier Higgs will be at the press conference

https://tj.news/telegraphjournal/101291866
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  #44  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2020, 4:02 PM
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O Active cases in Nova Scotia.

Nova Scotia, P.E.I. and Newfoundland and Labrador are now COVID-19 free.
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  #45  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2020, 3:35 PM
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#BREAKING: Premier Stephen McNeil confirming to the Sheldon MacLeod Show Nova Scotia will open up to the Atlantic Provinces as part of the Atlantic Bubble on July 3rd. That means you will not have to self-isolate for 14 days if you cross provincial borders in the region.
https://twitter.com/NEWS957/status/1275818455204233218


https://twitter.com/StephenMcNeil/st...21904348286976[/IMG]

Last edited by q12; Jun 24, 2020 at 4:08 PM. Reason: Breaking News
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  #46  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2020, 3:55 PM
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Well, with Newfoundland and PEI suspending the bubble for 2 weeks, the experiment is now on hold. (I expect NS and NB will similarly announce suspension of the bubble later today).

All said, despite the current outbreaks in NS and NB, I do believe the bubble was a success, especially for the Summer Tourist Season. It gave us a region of 3-4M people to share the wealth with, while letting NB (and Labrador) be the gatekeeper to the region at the Maine and Quebec borders.

Hopefully NB and NS can get their outbreaks settled so the bubble can reopen soon. Timing is going to be tight, since once it does open, there will be a surge in travel (especially PEI to Moncton). I'm sure no one wants that surge to hit during the Christmas Holiday Travel surge. But if the bubble stays suspended for more than 2 weeks, there will start to be overlaps.

Basically at this point, 2 maybe 3 weeks is the longest I think we can safely keep it suspended and still open in time for Christmas without causing a dangerous surge. Any more than that and we might as well keep it suspended until 2021.
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  #47  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 3:31 PM
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Can the Atlantic provinces not have a meeting an agree on a coordinated re-opening plan?
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  #48  
Old Posted May 30, 2021, 3:48 PM
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Can the Atlantic provinces not have a meeting an agree on a coordinated re-opening plan?
Technically the did, PEI’s premier King, said that he spoke with the leaders of the 4 Atlantic provinces and informed them of June 27th as an opening date. The next day NB’s conservatives came out and said they were opening June 7th to Newfoundland and PEI and Nova Scotia went along with PEI and said they would be looking at the same time to Canada day as an opening depending on case numbers. Technically NB is the only one who decided to go against what the other two felt was a good date.
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  #49  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 11:34 AM
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While it would be nice, I'm not sure why coordination is necessary here. NS has a much higher caseload and is rightly or wrongly being very conservative in its plan. Should PEI and NB follow NS' schedule for that reason?

Each province should be free to set their rules based on science/public pressure/what have you (hopefully science). NB has decided July 1 is potentially an appropriate day to reopen to the rest of Canada for vaccinated travelers conditional on some thresholds and I don't think it would make sense to go slower because of NS wanting to, for example. On the other hand I also don't think that NS should move at a different pace because NB wants to.

On July 1, if thresholds are met, partially vaccinated NBers will be able to travel to other provinces for which travel isn't restricted and return to NB without self isolation. If NS doesn't want to be included in that it seems perfectly fine to me (well, not really, but it's not my place to say what is acceptable). When NS is ready they can accept out of province travelers too.
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  #50  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 12:21 PM
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On July 1, if thresholds are met, partially vaccinated NBers will be able to travel to other provinces for which travel isn't restricted and return to NB without self isolation.
And if enough NBers are vaccinated by July 1 then i'll be able to visit without having to self-isolate.
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  #51  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 12:25 PM
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NS has a much higher caseload
New Brunswick had 9 new cases on Sunday. New Brunswick tested 977 people.
Nova Scotia had 20. Nova Scotia tested 6,157.

New Brunswick test positivity yesterday 0.9%
Nova Scotia test positivity yesterday 0.3%
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  #52  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 12:29 PM
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New Brunswick had 9 new cases on Sunday. New Brunswick tested 977 people.
Nova Scotia had 20. Nova Scotia tested 6,157.

New Brunswick test positivity yesterday 0.9%
Nova Scotia test positivity yesterday 0.3%
The higher test positivity rate in NB doesn't mean a lot, other than the fact that NB has a higher pre-test probability (self selection bias).

If NB was as profligate in it's testing as NS, we would have a lower positivity rate too..........

Statistics can be a bitch............
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  #53  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
If NB was as profligate in it's testing as NS, we would have a lower positivity rate too..........
If you don't test, you won't know. Any epidemiologist will tell you this is a terrible strategy.

Nova Scotia's success at beating down this variant 3rd wave has a lot to do with ramping up the testing big time, including asymptomatic which has caught 10% of our current outbreak cases.


https://twitter.com/WilsonKM2/status...96185890168832

Assuming makes an ass out of.....
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  #54  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 12:54 PM
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If you don't test, you won't know. Any epidemiologist will tell you this is a terrible strategy.
I didn't say that you weren't correct. I was just stating there was a reason why the test positivity rate is higher in NB, and this doesn't mean that the disease is more prevalent in NB. It only means that NB is employing a different testing strategy, rightly or wrongly.

Statistics is still a bitch.
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  #55  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 1:05 PM
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I didn't say that you weren't correct. I was just stating there was a reason why the test positivity rate is higher in NB, and this doesn't mean that the disease is more prevalent in NB. It only means that NB is employing a different testing strategy, rightly or wrongly.

Statistics is still a bitch.
I would have liked to see New Brunswick test more.



But bringing this back to regional coordination, maybe we should have an Atlantic Centre for Disease Control (AC/DC). With Atlantic Canada's success on handling this pandemic, our surveillance on future outbreaks could be coordinated as a region.
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  #56  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 1:40 PM
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But bringing this back to regional coordination, maybe we should have an Atlantic Centre for Disease Control (AC/DC). With Atlantic Canada's success on handling this pandemic, our surveillance on future outbreaks could be coordinated as a region.
Sounds like a plan - put it in Moncton.
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  #57  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 4:51 PM
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I guess I should have said NS has a higher "measured" case load but my points are still correct I think. While it would be nice to have collaboration, I don't think it gains us much. Should NB act when NS is ready or vice versa? Or do we split the difference? At the end of the day each province should just do what it thinks is best at the time.
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  #58  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 5:38 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
If NB was as profligate in it's testing as NS, we would have a lower positivity rate too..........
The relevant questions are more if we think NB would turn up 0 extra cases by doing 6x the testing (doubtful; do we even know false positives much below 1 in 5,000?) and how much of that is community spread (given that many are contacts and this is on the down-slope of an outbreak with rising vaccination rates and lag in data collection).

It seems more accurate to consider both to be back down near 0 at this point rather than looking at relative rates. If NB had 3 cases and NS had 1 the "clickbait headline" would be over 3x the rate in NB but the better real-world interpretation would be very low risk in both provinces.

If this level of risk aversion were applied last summer the Atlantic provinces never would have done a bubble at all. Back then, none of the most vulnerable people were vaccinated.
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  #59  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 5:48 PM
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Nova Scotia reported 17 cases today.
New Brunswick reported 12 new cases today (this would be the equivalent of 15 new cases in Nova Scotia when adjusted for population with Nova Scotia).
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  #60  
Old Posted May 31, 2021, 9:59 PM
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The relevant questions are more if we think NB would turn up 0 extra cases by doing 6x the testing (doubtful; do we even know false positives much below 1 in 5,000?) and how much of that is community spread (given that many are contacts and this is on the down-slope of an outbreak with rising vaccination rates and lag in data collection).

It seems more accurate to consider both to be back down near 0 at this point rather than looking at relative rates. If NB had 3 cases and NS had 1 the "clickbait headline" would be over 3x the rate in NB but the better real-world interpretation would be very low risk in both provinces.

If this level of risk aversion were applied last summer the Atlantic provinces never would have done a bubble at all. Back then, none of the most vulnerable people were vaccinated.
I have to admit reading through the previous posts I was laughing to myself a bit, not because any of this is funny, but just because of the juxtaposition of reading the information contained here from my home in Calgary. We haven't had a zero test day since the pandemic started. Be very thankful that the Atlantic governments (all 4 of them) have treated the pandemic very seriously, even if it seems like an over-reaction at times.

We're just coming out of our third wave, and will be wide open for Stampede (I'm convinced Kenny just counted backwards from the start date for the reopening plan), and possibly closed* again in August because of it. We're actually celebrating that we're not the worst anymore (sorry to my sister in Manitoba )

The provinces back home have been handling things very well, it's the rest of Canada that needs to catch up so we can hopefully have full inter-provincial travel again by Christmas.

*I say closed even though Alberta has never seen an actual lockdown, trying to balance the economy and controlling the pandemic, reopening too quickly twice already. The approach Alberta has taken has been a major contributor of both the economic and public health hardships the province has seen during the pandemic, ironically (and tragically) because they tried to find "a balanced response".

Sunday's results (because today's aren't out for Alberta yet):
Nova Scotia - 20 cases (0.3% positivity - 6,157 tests)
Alberta - 391 cases (6.1% positivity - 6,586 tests)
How Alberta's numbers might look with Nova Scotia's zeal (aka population adjusted) - 91 cases, 27,887 tests, 0.3% positivity. (reversed - 86 cases, 1,454 tests, 5.9% positivity if NS had AB's population comparable numbers)
Theoretically to get the same positivity, Alberta would have to do over 130,000 tests/day. (NS would get AB's positivity with 328 tests, theoretically of course)

Be happy you guys don't have to deal with the mess going on here.
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