Provincial Election

[1overcosc]

Further NDP gains in Ottawa beyond Ottawa Centre would require a situation where the Liberal vote drops considerably in favour of the NDP vote and PC vote remains steady or barely increases; this would turn Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South into 3 way races.

[1overcosc]

CBC polltracker has been updated. NDP have moved up to 44 seats, with their confidence range going from 30 to 59.

In Eastern Ontario, they're now projected at 3. Aside from Ottawa Centre and Kingston, the 3rd is likely Peterborough (Peterborough is counted as Eastern by CBC), but at the top of the confidence interval (the scenario where the NDP get 59 seats provincewide), they're at 6 in Eastern Ontario. Not sure where those extra 3 are, but some would have to be in Ottawa. So at least the swing models are putting the possibility of more Ottawa seats being in play for Horwath.

[ssiguy]

The NDP gains were originally tied to Liberal loses with little effect on Tory support but this is starting to change. Many people who wouldn`t have thought twice about voting Tory under Brown or Elliot are very leery of Ford both personally and policy wise.

He is also hurting himself by not coming out with a solid policy platform or how be is going to balance the books with his huge tax cuts but still promising no cuts to service, the civil service, and continuing with the large Liberal infrastructure programs. Now those crucial non-decided voters are doing what everyone thought they would........lining up with the party that has the best chance of beating Ford. They were waiting to see if that would be the Liberals or NDP but now that question has been answered. It is far better that it is the NDP as Horvath is far more liked than Wynne and the NDP offers a change from the tired and corrupt Liberals. This means that those undecided voters are more likely to vote as opposed to if the Liberals were leading as many couldn`t stomach the idea of voting for either Wynne or Ford and so may have simply stayed home.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

That's a good point. I just have a hard time seeing an NDP path to victory. Based on current polling I would expect them to run the table north of the French River, in urban SW Ontario and Hamilton/Niagara. After that the list gets pretty short: York/East York, some of the larger centres in Eastern Ontario (Kingston and Peterborough) maybe Scarborough (although Ford is strong there), maybe Ottawa Centre, maybe Brampton. That isn't enough to win an election. Unless the Liberal vote completely collapses (and as you said, the Liberals seem to have found their floor) then further gains in Ottawa or Old Toronto are unlikely. Otherwise they have to start taking rural and suburban ridings from the Tories. Hard to see that happening without a major drop in Tory support.

The last (well, only) time the NDP won, the distribution of ridings was a lot different. NDP strongholds like Hamilton/Niagara, SW Ontario, Northern Ontario had a lot more seats, while the 905 had fewer.

I would think they need to sweep 905 to form a majority government. That ipsos poll shows them leading in 905 by a few points so it's not impossible especially with a further Liberal drop. Still it must be 10-1 that the PCs form a majority.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I would think they need to sweep 905 to form a majority government. That ipsos poll shows them leading in 905 by a few points so it's not impossible especially with a further Liberal drop. Still it must be 10-1 that the PCs form a majority.

I agree they would need to sweep the 905, but I suspect a lot of that 905 support is in areas where the NDP already holds seats (Hamilton, Niagara Region, Oshawa and Brampton).

The obvious place for the NDP to make inroads would be the 416, but with Ford leading there there will be few opportunities outside of the downtown core (and maybe Scarborough).

[1overcosc]

If the NDP top 40% in the 905s they're in, I think. That's thr point at which their support will have to be diffused and they'll start racking up gains all over

[1overcosc]

Another poll came out today, this time by Pollara. NDP 38%, PC 37%, Liberal 18%. That's three different polls by three different companies since the long weekend that have come out and put the NDP and PCs tied for 1st. So the NDP surge is definitely real at this point and not a fluke.

This poll subdivided the GTA regions and put the NDP in 1st place in Peel-Halton region. That definitely means the NDP are likely going to sweep Brampton and win a few seats in Mississauga.

[acottawa]

CBC updated their poll tracker. Liberals are down to two seats, both in Eastern Ontario (I assume Ottawa Vanier and Ottawa South).

Tories still have a majority, but the NDP would have a pretty large caucus, but still only 3 seats in Eastern Ontario.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by acottawa

CBC updated their poll tracker. Liberals are down to two seats, both in Eastern Ontario (I assume Ottawa Vanier and Ottawa South).

Tories still have a majority, but the NDP would have a pretty large caucus, but still only 3 seats in Eastern Ontario.

It will be interesting in coming days to see how/if today's allegation against DoFo affect the momentum of the polls.

[1overcosc]

It seems nothing can break the NDP momentum.

The PC campaign is completely rudderless as they have no idea how to fight the NDP. Everything about their campaign was designed to fight the Liberals and all the stuff they prepared doesn't work on the NDP.

Criticisms about controversial candidates, the fiscal mistake in the platform, and overall policy objectives are all falling flat, I think because the other parties are both so shitty that nobody can take their criticisms seriously. (ie. nobody can take Wynne seriously when she criticizes the NDP about fiscal responsibility, nobody can take Ford seriously when he criticizes the NDP about controversial candidates, etc.).

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The PC campaign is completely rudderless as they have no idea how to fight the NDP. Everything about their campaign was designed to fight the Liberals and all the stuff they prepared doesn't work on the NDP.

They don't particularly need to fight the NDP. Any successful attacks would be more likely to push support back to the liberals which could hurt their strongholds. They have a lead in the 416, they have a lead in the 905 and they have a huge lead in Eastern Ontario. They can still lose SW and Northern Ontario and win a majority.

[lrt's friend]

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

That's why the NDP is surging, it's because Ford has little appeal.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

I don't think he is popular outside of Toronto.

In Toronto, he is a retail politician (not unlike Jim Watson) with a strong base of support.

The irony is that base of support in Toronto is pretty much blocking an NDP path to victory. A more popular leader (say Christine Elliott) would have higher poll numbers but less chance of winning.

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I don't understand Doug Ford's appeal. The PCs still have not released their full platform. I guess they expect to just fall into office and that appears to be a real possibility. If the electorate is satisfied to vote for a party that does not have a coherent platform, they deserve what they will get, which is, who knows what. I am prepared to vote PC if I really understood what I was voting for.

A plan that cuts income taxes, business taxes, carbon taxes, reduces expenses without cutting staff and spends more on a wide range of items does not add up. I guess I am just plain stupid for not understanding how this makes any sense.

The Liberals have clearly demonstrated they are financial train wrecks.

The NDP's platform is a financial train wreck.. and their support of CUPE over students shows their true ideology (i.e. PS unions uber alles).

At least with Ford, we can *hope*... and believe me it's nothing more than hope... he'll try and turn around the above financial train wrecks by doing things he hasn't stated out loud.

My disillusionment with all politicians ... and democracy in general (i.e. short term thinking only) is at an all time high.

Disruption is the best option I can think of at this time... and for the record I have no clue who I will vote for on election day.

[1overcosc]

Ford has said he will release a costed platform. So far his proposed tax cuts and spending increases far outweigh the $6B in efficiencies/cuts he's proposed so unless there's something new he hasn't said yet, his platform would put us on track towards a huge deficit, ironically probably bigger than the one the NDP proposed. We're in a very weird place...

[Kitchissippi]

Conservatives tend to amputate before thinking, and before you know it they’ll be telling you, “Oh, that was your leg? Meh, you didn’t need it anyway.“ Then the Liberals or NDP get voted in after to buy you crutches.

[1overcosc]

Early leak of tomorrow morning's EKOS poll:



EDIT: EKOS president has confirmed that picture is real. Twitter is abuzz that Forum is reportedly also about to release polls putting the NDP solidly in 1st.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

The Liberals have clearly demonstrated they are financial train wrecks.

The NDP's platform is a financial train wreck.. and their support of CUPE over students shows their true ideology (i.e. PS unions uber alles).

At least with Ford, we can *hope*... and believe me it's nothing more than hope... he'll try and turn around the above financial train wrecks by doing things he hasn't stated out loud.

My disillusionment with all politicians ... and democracy in general (i.e. short term thinking only) is at an all time high.

Disruption is the best option I can think of at this time... and for the record I have no clue who I will vote for on election day.

I am not sure if this was analysis or personal opinion but I think it is spot on. I haven't talked to too many people about the election, Ottawa has a weird blind spot for Provincial politics, so I don't know if others have the same thinking as I do. Personally I consider myself generally a left leaning Liberal but am considering voting PC this time. I think the party will constrain him wheras the NDP will be a repeat of 1990 with an inexperienced cabinet flailing from crisis to crisis and an exploding deficit. It also probably helps that I will benefit more from the goodies Ford is handing out than the NDP goodies.

[Paul29]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Personally I consider myself generally a left leaning Liberal but am considering voting PC this time.

I would consider if for anyone other that Ford. We just moved here from the GTA and saw Ford Nation first hand. This guy is a train wreck.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It also probably helps that I will benefit more from the goodies Ford is handing out than the NDP goodies.

So will I but I still can't vote for DoFo. Horwath's plan is to tax the highest tax bracket to pay for her incredibly expensive wish list. History has shown that doesn't work. They also blindly support (read, propped up by) unions, so I won't vote for her.

I cringe at the thought of voting Wynne. Greens are irrelevant. WTF to do....