Winnipeg CMA in Five Years (2021) - Page 13

trueviking · #**241** Posted **Jan 14, 2021, 7:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

I’m surprised with the 2 major Albertan cities holding strong relative growth still

Can’t speak to Edmonton but in Calgary that has Not been my experience albeit anecdotal experience only goes so far. Downtown offices is still on the empty side though.

30% vacancy is on the empty side?

They have way more babies in Alberta because the population is younger. That helps.

It is amazing how much still gets built there....hard to stomach their hard done by WEXIT attitude.

These numbers are from july to july, so there is 8 months of pre-pandemic immigration...i suspect the growth in winnipeg next year will have a negative sign in front of it.

Jeff · #**242** Posted **Jan 15, 2021, 4:08 AM**

^^^ Yeah, I second that. I've still heard a lot of people moving to Toronto and Vancouver despite the isolation requirements, etc.

Jammon · #**243** Posted **Jan 15, 2021, 5:13 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff

^^^ Yeah, I second that. I've still heard a lot of people moving to Toronto and Vancouver despite the isolation requirements, etc.

I've seen the same thing- but I'm really wondering how people are finding jobs in this market. I know people who have been laid off in Alberta and they are not able to find anything. Some have even left the province in an effort to find work. I'm surprised that during COVID-19 people would move anywhere given the instability in the markets right now.

buzzg · #**244** Posted **Jan 15, 2021, 7:35 PM**

I know 4 people who sold their homes/condos in Toronto and moved back to Winnipeg this year, for a number of reasons, all somewhat related to COVID.

drew · #**245** Posted **Jan 15, 2021, 7:37 PM**

yeah, I only know of people moving back here, not away from here throughout the pandemic.

DonaldSmith · #**246** Posted **Jan 15, 2021, 8:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by drew

yeah, I only know of people moving back here, not away from here throughout the pandemic.

Yeah, Parent's basement vacancy is down 50%. Record absorption.

GreyGarden · #**247** Posted **Jan 15, 2021, 8:20 PM**

It does sound like a not insignificant number of people moved out of Toronto in the last year. Apparently the surrounding municipalities all saw an uptick of people moving in while Toronto lost people and gained people primarily just through immigration and births.

I thought the whole 'people leaving big cities for smaller cities' was being wildly overblown by people (who in my opinion wanted it to happen) - but it'll be an interesting trend to watch. I'm still skeptical though.

I also know a few people who have moved back to Winnipeg from bigger cities.

drew · #**248** Posted **Jan 15, 2021, 8:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonaldSmith

Yeah, Parent's basement vacancy is down 50%. Record absorption.

Those types aren't really in my demographic anymore.

Riverman · #**249** Posted **Jan 16, 2021, 3:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by GreyGarden

It does sound like a not insignificant number of people moved out of Toronto in the last year. Apparently the surrounding municipalities all saw an uptick of people moving in while Toronto lost people and gained people primarily just through immigration and births.

I thought the whole 'people leaving big cities for smaller cities' was being wildly overblown by people (who in my opinion wanted it to happen) - but it'll be an interesting trend to watch. I'm still skeptical though.

I also know a few people who have moved back to Winnipeg from bigger cities.

Very true. Where I live (Northumberland County) house prices have gone through the roof. A realtor friend who works the Durham region tells me many people can't afford to buy in Durham so she sends them out here.

Also, people move out here to "cash out" as they can pocket a pile of $$$ and get a nicer house here, and commute.

Andy6 · #**250** Posted **Jan 16, 2021, 5:12 PM**

My downtown Toronto rental building feels really empty. They don't seem to be turning over empty suites very quickly anymore. The university students that usually fill the smaller units are gone. I'm sure the ownership is suddenly glad to have so many long-term elderly tenants, whereas before they were hoping they would leave so they could jack up the rent and churn through short-term renters.

DonaldSmith · #**251** Posted **Jan 18, 2021, 2:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy6

My downtown Toronto rental building feels really empty. They don't seem to be turning over empty suites very quickly anymore. The university students that usually fill the smaller units are gone. I'm sure the ownership is suddenly glad to have so many long-term elderly tenants, whereas before they were hoping they would leave so they could jack up the rent and churn through short-term renters.

It should also be noted that thousands of AirBnB rentals have reverted back to long term rentals, which has also improved the market for renters.

GreyGarden · #**252** Posted **Jan 18, 2021, 2:33 PM**

From the Canada stats can forum:

Quote:

Originally Posted by zahav

Interesting seeing all of the migration components at play with the CMAs and CAs. These are the top and bottom CMAs for interprovincial migration:

Gainers
1. Vancouver (+4,381)
2. Ottawa (+3,684)
3. Victoria (+3,279)
4. Kelowna (+2,081)
5. Calgary (+1,931)

Losers
1. Winnipeg (-6,660)
2. Regina (-3,920)
3. Saskatoon (-3,787)
4. Montreal (-3,175)
5. St. John's (-1,241)
Just for reference, the largest CMA:
Toronto (+284)

Top 3 for international migration (deducted non-perm residents, since those numbers are chaos right now, and aren't permament parts of the population:
1. Toronto (+92,292)
2. Vancouver (+31,394)
3. Montreal (+24,808)

Those 3 cities were also by far the biggest losers in intraprovincial migration, by a huge margin. It's interesting that the CMAs in the prairies all attracted more people than they lost from within their provinces, so a very different scenario than the 3 big cities in the country.

buzzg · #**253** Posted **Jan 19, 2021, 6:26 AM**

Sounds like aside from Ottawa, everyone moved to nicer weather haha.

I also think some of the movement out of Toronto (and bigger cities) to the burbs can probably be attributed to the ridiculously overpriced housing market right now. And yeah, apartment market is fairly healthy.

roccerfeller · #**254** Posted **Jan 21, 2021, 2:24 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trueviking

30% vacancy is on the empty side?

They have way more babies in Alberta because the population is younger. That helps.

It is amazing how much still gets built there....hard to stomach their hard done by WEXIT attitude.

These numbers are from july to july, so there is 8 months of pre-pandemic immigration...i suspect the growth in winnipeg next year will have a negative sign in front of it.

fair point ^^
wpg may still surprise, but without the normal immigration to offset, it may be so

with keystone taking a hit, an already deflated energy sector will surely have an impact in AB

pspeid · #**255** Posted **Jan 21, 2021, 11:39 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

fair point ^^
wpg may still surprise, but without the normal immigration to offset, it may be so

with keystone taking a hit, an already deflated energy sector will surely have an impact in AB

Even pre-pandemic there were some signs that the bloom was off the wild rose. Here's an article from CBC new last February about the shrinking number of 20-24 year-old in Calgary:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ysis-1.5444969

Biff · #**256** Posted **May 12, 2021, 7:40 PM**

Interesting...City of Winnipeg Metro area growth plan to 2050

Item 12 under Reports - Appendix C: Draft Plan 20-50 - Regional Growth and Servicing Plan

http://clkapps.winnipeg.ca/dmis/View...onId=&InitUrl=

blueandgoldguy · #**257** Posted **May 18, 2021, 10:43 PM**

^The high growth scenario for metro Winnipeg isn't particularly impressive. Barely 200,000 population increase over 30 years. This doesn't jive with some of the projections I have seen posted on the main Canada board. One had metro Winnipeg at 1.1 million by the early to mid-2030s...and that was medium growth projection.

Stonewall only growing by 500 in the next 30 years?! They have been building houses out there at a tremendous rate, even through the COVID winter. I could see an increase of 500 in the next 10 - 15 years.

Overall, there appears to be a pattern of little to negative growth for nearly all the municipalities north of Winnipeg while those south and east of the city will experience steady to impressive growth ie. Niverville.

In the end, it's hard to project growth given all the variables that may change within a short timeframe.

optimusREIM · #**258** Posted **May 19, 2021, 2:06 AM**

^ Yet I still think that the city's official projections are an understatement, unless they plan on implementing policy to really limit growth

blueandgoldguy · #**259** Posted **Dec 23, 2021, 1:47 AM**

I'm curious as to how big the Sikh population is in Winnipeg. Maybe there are more people migrating from India as of late.

Sidenote: The second-run theatre on McPhillips at Northgate now only plays foreign movies in Hindi and Punjab languages. I haven't seen any movies in Tagalog and Mandarin playing there anymore which is strange.

thebasketballgeek · #**260** Posted **Dec 23, 2021, 2:52 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy

I'm curious as to how big the Sikh population is in Winnipeg. Maybe there are more people migrating from India as of late.

Sidenote: The second-run theatre on McPhillips at Northgate now only plays foreign movies in Hindi and Punjab languages. I haven't seen any movies in Tagalog and Mandarin playing there anymore which is strange.

Oh man as a person of Sikh faith raised here in 21 years the growth of the Indian population is truly staggering. I’m almost certain in raw numbers we have more South Asians then the Twin Cities down south despite being a fraction of their population. Northwest Winnipeg has become a super interesting fusion of Indian and Filipino influence. Southwest Winnipeg and the new developments in Kildonan also seem to house a sizeable south Asian community.

1 demographic to pay attention in the next census that seems to be growing rapidly is Latin Americans. Their presence seemed virtually nonexistent even 5 years ago. Now there’s an empanada store in St. Vital and just a massive increase in restaurants inspired from food in Latin America. At least in my studio class of 20 people 4 of them have Latin American origins with 3 being international students.