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  #221  
Old Posted Jun 7, 2013, 12:23 AM
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from today's T&T:
http://22864.vws.magma.ca/index.php?&article_id=11180

Big events centre vote looms
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Times & Transcript
By: Brent Mazerolle

Impact study to be released on Monday, vote on purchase of Highfield Square expected the following week

Moncton city council has scheduled a special public meeting for Monday that will be one of the most important held to date on the future of the proposed downtown events centre.

But even it will be eclipsed by the council meeting a week later, when council decides whether or not to invest millions in purchasing the land to build it.

The special meeting will get underway at 2 p.m. in the council chamber on Monday. The agenda will have just one item - the presentation of an economic impact study on the proposed centre by economic development consultant David Campbell and Université de Moncton economics professor Pierre Marcel Desjardins.

Mayor George LeBlanc said it is probably 'the last big piece of the information' council and the public need as they weigh the pros and cons of going forward with the events centre idea.

Two previous internal reports - one reviewing all that has transpired in the years-long city file and mapping what steps would have to come next, and another laying out a 30-year financial plan for the city as a whole with a new centre a part of it - have been publicly presented in the last two months.

This report, besides looking at the specific issue of potential economic impact, also offers yet another valuable independent perspective on the overall project by outside experts.

While it's sure to spur an interesting and probably lengthy public discussion, Monday's meeting will not end with city council making any big decisions.

That will come one week later with the biggest decision on the file to date, whether to invest in the idea with the $6-million purchase of the Highfield Square property.

As LeBlanc put it yesterday, 'you can't build a home without buying land.' Until now, the City of Moncton has spent comparatively small amounts of money on the necessary studies and due diligence for the project, as well as paying $25,000 to have an option on the land. But on June 17, council will deliberate the spending of the millions of dollars.

'Should council refuse to buy the land, it's over,' LeBlanc said of the plan for the centre. On the other hand, if council buys the land but ultimately votes against building the centre down the road, the city will at least have a say in the development of one of the downtown's most important parcels.

The city did that with the former Beaver Lumber property off Assomption Boulevard in the late 1990s, and though it was a long journey with plenty of obstacles and a few pitfalls, the strategy ultimately worked. Most of the land is now taken up by the Rogers contact centre, now one of the city's largest employers, and the new state-ofthe-art Moncton Law Courts. And though the roughly dozen years might seem long to the general public, it wasn't an unusual timeline in the world of development.

Asked if he could predict how the vote might go, the mayor said, 'I'm optimistic council will make a positive decision for Moncton, but it will be up to council to decide.' Also on June 17, council is expected to make a second related decision. Following the evaluation of the three responses the city received to its request for qualifications from developers interested in the project, the council will vote on whether to direct staff to start a request for proposals process for those developers deemed qualified.

It would only be after the RFP was issued and answered that council would have its final vote on the events centre project, something that is a year off even if the idea is still alive after the June 17 meeting.

Personal note - The next couple of weeks should be very interesting. I especially look forward to hearing the report on the potential economic impact of this development. Regardless, I fully expect to see city council vote next week to purchase the Highfield Square site. Even if the decision is ultimately to pass on the events centre at this time, this piece of land is too important to allow to go to waste for the next 40-50 years. By purchasing the property, the city will have firm control in how it gets developed, no matter what.....
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  #222  
Old Posted Jun 11, 2013, 3:25 AM
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Here are the independent reports regarding the economic impact of a new downtown events centre on the greater Moncton region:

David Campbell:
http://www.moncton.ca/Assets/Busines...d+Campbell.pdf

Pierre Marcel Desjardins:
http://www.moncton.ca/Assets/Busines...Desjardins.pdf

Lot's of info here, but it would appear that they both feel that a new centre is vital for the future economic well being of downtown Moncton.....
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  #223  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2013, 12:01 AM
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from today's T&T:
http://22864.vws.magma.ca/index.php?&article_id=11208

Events centre to spur growth: studies
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Times & Transcript
By: Brent Mazerolle

Downtown centre construction could have $340M in impacts; could help reverse decline in downtown

A proposed multi-purpose downtown events centre in downtown Moncton would create hundreds of jobs and millions of dollars' worth of economic activity dur­ing construction, and then be an important catalyst for growth in the city's most critical neighbourhood for years to come.

Université de Moncton economist Pierre-Marcel Desjardins and economic development consultant David Campbell presented a pair of studies at a special public meeting of Moncton city council yesterday afternoon, one week ahead of a council meeting at which council is expected to vote on whether or not to buy the Highfield Square property.

The city has an option on the 11 acres of land and has identified it as the site for the centre if the project goes ahead.

Desjardins focused on the more easily quantifiable impacts construction of a presumed $105.4-million project would have, while Campbell looked at the broader impacts and set the context.

That context is a bit troubling, as it turns out.

Campbell, noting that the downtown encompasses just 1.5 per cent of the city's land area but represents 14.4 per cent of the city's tax revenues, demonstrated how it is growing stagnant despite the more than 800 businesses and 18,000 people working there.

There is now 350,000 square feet of vacant office space in downtown. The vacancy rate has risen from 6.6 per cent in 2011 to 13.5 per cent in 2013.

Meanwhile, the number of people living downtown dropped by 3.3 per cent between 2006 and 2011, even as the population of the city overall has grown almost eight per cent. That's likely because downtown residents are older than the average population. By contrast, Halifax's downtown grew almost 10 per cent in the same period.

Neither consultant suggested an events centre alone would bring more and younger residents downtown, but Campbell said it would be a catalyst to a vibrant downtown. He did note London, Ont. saw its downtown population grow 30 per cent after the Budweiser Gardens, and the other related elements of London's downtown revitalization strategy, were built.

'You have to look at the centre as part of a broader strategy for downtown,' Campbell said. 'To think of it as a panacea is a big mistake.' Saying there was always going to be a risk in spending public funds to encourage private development, Campbell said if the city uses four of the 11 acres for the centre itself, private development on the other seven acres could pay the mortgage on the centre in increased property taxes.

He suggested that the development the centre would encourage over a three- to five-year period could create land valued at up to $200 per square foot, though he admitted that figure was probably a bit higher than was realistic.

Nevertheless, he said the actual figure would be far above the $10 per foot the land currently commands as surface parking in a city glutted with surface parking.

With the abandoned shopping mall at the western end of downtown actually having the potential of bringing down other property values in the area, there is risk both in doing something with the land and in doing nothing.

'You've grown 30 per cent since the Coliseum was built. That's pretty impressive,' Campbell said, comparing Moncton to a baby quickly outgrowing its diapers and needing to decide what it wants to be when it grows up.

Apologizing in advance for what he called 'hyperbole,' Campbell told council, 'you have to decide, 'are you a big Miramichi or a small Calgary?' ' Meanwhile, Desjardins said the scale of the project would have a significant economic impact both inside and outside the province when it came to construction, creating the equivalent of nearly 1,500 full-time jobs over its duration.

And while it is difficult for a layperson to grasp, Desjardins said the construction of a $105-million project would actually have $340 million in direct and indirect impacts here and in the rest of Canada.

And as Coun.-at-large Dawn Arnold first pointed out, Desjardins' findings that construction alone would generate $10.7 million for the federal government in taxes and another $6.2 million for provincial coffers helps make a case for their funding involvement.

Desjardins also forecasted that operations of the centre would bring $242,000 per year to the federal government and $192,000 per year to the province once the centre is built.

Desjardins explained his operations numbers are low, because he included only the costs of dayto-day operations and not the tax revenues from money spent on the events that would be held there.

Of all his figures, he said, 'this is an approximation. It's a ballpark.' He did say, though, it would be reasonable to assume a five to seven per cent margin of error.
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  #224  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2013, 5:12 AM
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I wish I had been tracking NB projects with more interest - going back through all the posts, I would've enjoyed the nut job you guys had earlier. I also would've pointed out that Wrigley Field was purpose built without any parking (L-train station near by and bus to the stadium) so people would be trapped on the site and end up spending more there - which has been a huge success. I'd also point out a few studies that show that pedestrian shoppers tend to spend more money when walking down high streets than people who drive to stores.

This is an interesting proposal, but as I mentioned to Ryejay on his facebook - I have to say the report was pretty amateur. No photos? No real analysis - it just seemed like a lot of fluff. Not trying to poo poo the idea; I think it's interesting but for what they likely spent on the consultant, the City of Moncton could've gotten better.

That said, I liked proposal 1 and parts of proposal 2. So I look forward to news of how this moves forward!
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  #225  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2013, 2:20 PM
RyeJay RyeJay is offline
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Originally Posted by halifaxboyns View Post
This is an interesting proposal, but as I mentioned to Ryejay on his facebook - I have to say the report was pretty amateur. No photos? No real analysis - it just seemed like a lot of fluff.
Just enough to convince the laymen that 'work' was done on forecasting the centre's economic success, so it is safe to borrow more money.

And although it may be fluff, it was honest fluff. Reading through the documents, I must say that it was refreshing to read material that was honest about downtown Moncton's bleak state.

The Times&Transcript almost always sugar-coats.
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  #226  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2013, 10:49 PM
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Did they end up choosing a design for it yet?
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  #227  
Old Posted Jun 12, 2013, 11:22 PM
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Did they end up choosing a design for it yet?
No. They haven't even purchased the land yet. They are just trying to build the case for going ahead with the project in the first place.

The vote on the purchase of the Highfield Square site is due next week. They have already selected the preferred construction firms via an RFQ, but the actual RFP won't be issued until next fall.

In the meantime, the city is beating around for federal and provincial monies, and is looking for private partners. Without these sort of commitments, they don't even know how large the arena will be and what sort of other amenities will be included in the overall plan.

It is still early days yet.......

The designs on the first page of this thread were only part of a visioning exercise to allow people to know what they might expect from this sort of a project. None of those designs constitute any sort of an official architectural plan.
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Last edited by MonctonRad; Jun 13, 2013 at 12:17 AM.
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  #228  
Old Posted Jun 13, 2013, 1:01 AM
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In other words Chadillaccc, we're still 20 years away from the shovel hitting the ground.
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  #229  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2013, 6:46 PM
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In other words Chadillaccc, we're still 20 years away from the shovel hitting the ground.
That's a little pessimistic Budyser.

The official plan is to have the place up and running by the fall of 2017 (God willing).

The vote on the purchase of the Highfield Square site is tomorrow I believe. It would make sense for city council to purchase the site in any event. The cost is only $6M, and regardless of what happens with regards to the events centre, a purchase of this property by the city would allow the city complete control over what will eventually happen with this important parcel of land in the downtown core.

The only fly in the ointment would be if RyeJay is correct and that there is a conspiracy to hide a massive and expensive cost for remediation of a toxic brownfield. I don't personally think this is the case, but I guess we will find out tomorrow.
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  #230  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2013, 7:50 PM
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The only fly in the ointment would be if RyeJay is correct and that there is a conspiracy to hide a massive and expensive cost for remediation of a toxic brownfield. I don't personally think this is the case, but I guess we will find out tomorrow.
You will not find out, tomorrow. Tomorrow, they are only purchasing the site. There are to be no details about cleanup costs.

The bigger conspiracy will be to get enough votes for the centre itself, since Ottawa and Fredericton won't help, at least, not until after 2015.
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  #231  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
That's a little pessimistic Budyser.

The official plan is to have the place up and running by the fall of 2017 (God willing).

The vote on the purchase of the Highfield Square site is tomorrow I believe. It would make sense for city council to purchase the site in any event. The cost is only $6M, and regardless of what happens with regards to the events centre, a purchase of this property by the city would allow the city complete control over what will eventually happen with this important parcel of land in the downtown core.

The only fly in the ointment would be if RyeJay is correct and that there is a conspiracy to hide a massive and expensive cost for remediation of a toxic brownfield. I don't personally think this is the case, but I guess we will find out tomorrow.
The land deal WAS originally $6M. Now according to a CBC News article this morning, the cost has now doubled to $12M.

According to Mayor Leblanc: "That's a little bit more complicated than you would think because there's an adjustment formula there based on investment rates but we have set aside for the purchase and environmental clean-up of the land $10 [million] to $12 million."

I'm wondering if they are including the cost of clean-up in the price of purchase, or will it cost even more. Leblanc said the city put aside $10 to $12M for the purchase AND ENVIRONMENTAL CLEAN-UP. I guess we will find out more tonight.
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  #232  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 11:37 AM
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Interesting:

Most of us have felt that environmental clean-up would only be a few million dollars. RyeJay on the other hand thought it might be $35M, which I would think would be a deal breaker.

It would appear that the mayor is going with the former possibility and not the latter.

It will be interesting to see how the purchase is formulated and if it includes the entire cost of the clean-up. My presumption is that it will......
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  #233  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 1:01 PM
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Interesting:

Most of us have felt that environmental clean-up would only be a few million dollars. RyeJay on the other hand thought it might be $35M, which I would think would be a deal breaker.

It would appear that the mayor is going with the former possibility and not the latter.

It will be interesting to see how the purchase is formulated and if it includes the entire cost of the clean-up. My presumption is that it will......

The wording in the Radio-Canada article lends to believe that the $12 millions figure definitely includes clean up costs.

link
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  #234  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 1:31 PM
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The land deal WAS originally $6M. Now according to a CBC News article this morning, the cost has now doubled to $12M.

According to Mayor Leblanc: "That's a little bit more complicated than you would think because there's an adjustment formula there based on investment rates but we have set aside for the purchase and environmental clean-up of the land $10 [million] to $12 million."

I'm wondering if they are including the cost of clean-up in the price of purchase, or will it cost even more. Leblanc said the city put aside $10 to $12M for the purchase AND ENVIRONMENTAL CLEAN-UP. I guess we will find out more tonight.
I want the city to purchase the site, and I want the events centre to go forward; but aside from the political spin to move the public forward on this development, I caution anyone against being too disappointed when, come time for the actual cleanup process, the full costs of the environmental aspect for the centre are realised.

I don't want the cleanup to be as much as $35M. It would be great if it were only a few million dollars; however, I'm taking into consideration the volume of space that must be treated, the fact that cleanup costs have been 'surmised' without any physical tests done to the land (they haven't been able to move anything, yet), along with the consideration of time delay. Inflation is a bitch...as the opening line of your reply indicates.

The Highfield site won't see any shovels in the ground until after 2016, at the very earliest. And after we've moved some earth and old infrastructure, then we will get a very clear picture of the hazardous materials that must be removed...and the costs.

Actual cleanup costs is not something we will discover tonight; anyone who frequently sees large developments go forward on toxic brownfields knows this. For anyone to so easily accept political spin is a bit naïve. Fortunately, most of us on this forum are not; so, we shall wait and see how accurate these current government numbers are in a few years time...
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  #235  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 4:22 PM
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One thing to consider (which I wasn't previously aware of), is that the original site of the old ICR shops was downtown, in the Highfield Square area. They burned down in 1906 and were replaced by the CN shops up off of Vaughan Harvey, where the CN Sportsplex is now.

Highfield was therefore a brownfield about 120 years ago. There might be more contamination on the site than I originally thought. I wonder how much of this might still be around.....
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  #236  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 5:55 PM
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I believe the $12 million includes the cost of cleanup. CBC words there articles to have people believe otherwise - such as claiming the cost to purchase Highfield has jumped from 6 to 12 million. When they purchased the option for the property, the option was set at $6 million plus cleanup costs for the city. I am sure the vote tonight will pass without issue.

They state construction is to start in 2015, however does anybody have any idea if they would they proceed with demolition and cleanup earlier than this, or is the 2 year time frame to build include demolition, cleanup, and construction? Seems fast if so.
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  #237  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 6:26 PM
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I don't disagree that the cost to clean up the land would cost a few millions, but not $35M.

Looking at the 1870's map and all the historic photos posted on this site, I can't see there being that much contamination on this site.

If for whatever reason you're correct, I totally disagree spending this money for the clean-up. The city should avoid this site all together and consider a second location. Behind Assumption between the court house and BlueCross, which was my preferred location since day one.

I like this location much more.
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  #238  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 9:22 PM
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Council agrees to purchase Highfield Square property for about $6 million, according to CBC reporter Marc Genuist
Well that step is done. Now to find out what the land will be used for.
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  #239  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 9:37 PM
RyeJay RyeJay is offline
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I believe the $12 million includes the cost of cleanup. CBC words there articles to have people believe otherwise - such as claiming the cost to purchase Highfield has jumped from 6 to 12 million. When they purchased the option for the property, the option was set at $6 million plus cleanup costs for the city. I am sure the vote tonight will pass without issue.

They state construction is to start in 2015, however does anybody have any idea if they would they proceed with demolition and cleanup earlier than this, or is the 2 year time frame to build include demolition, cleanup, and construction? Seems fast if so.
I found the CBC was very straight forward, and included the mayor's quotes explaining the price jump.

But again: we are trusting the words of politicians who don't know the true costs. We have to open up the land in order to find out.

If construction is to start in 2015, it would mean the City of Moncton would be agreeing to go this alone -- without the province and without the feds. It would be a rare instance in Canada, especially for a have-not city such as Moncton. Cities in Western Canada are more likely to commit to projects without other levels of government getting involved financially.

Also, I would like to clarify that I am not calling Moncton a 'have-not city' to bash it. The city is, in all seriousness, unable to handle its debt from infrastructure and public services without regular subsidies from the province, which is transferred to Fredericton from Ottawa.

This is why I think it's unlikely the city will commit to an events centre, costing well over $100M, without help. $100M is essentially all of Moncton's tax revenues for the entire year.

One fortunate circumstance for Moncton is that it would have decades to repay the loan it would be taking out for the events centre.
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  #240  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2013, 9:42 PM
RyeJay RyeJay is offline
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Well that step is done. Now to find out what the land will be used for.
I wonder if this could turn into a 2015 Federal Election issue for the ridings in this region? Which party will 'up' the amount of infrastructure dollars?!...

The NDP would support the centre, because it'll promote downtown growth -- which is the most sustainable form of city growth.
The Liberals whore themselves out to anything.
And the Conservatives obviously want to stay in power.
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