City Murder Rates

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

But there are homicides in St. Louis County too. In 2019, there were 65, for instance. Let's say city+county reaches 400 this year. That's still a 30/100,000 murder rate.

São Paulo, for instance, stamds at 7/100,000 and it's far from having a safe reputation amongst its inhabitants.

first, STL City + County is not going to reach 400 homicides. there's half a month left and the city is at ~240 while the county is at ~50. the total will probably be ~300, which is the number i stated above when i added the county homicides to the city homicides.

the number of combined homicides is still FAR FAR below that for Tijuana and Juarez. the greater point here is that comparing blind rates based on wildly disparate boundaries and populations tells you very little about what it's actually like on the ground. some of St. Louis' neighborhoods are dangerous, particularly if you are part of a certain demographic or involved with drugs or gang activity. that demographic comprises 90% of the homicides. (i'm not excusing it—just saying the reality is more nuanced than an arbitrarily-defined rate can convey). i strongly doubt there's anything close to a useful comparison that could be made between Sao Paulo and St. Louis.

[tablemtn]

Portland has 49 murders thus far, the highest in about 30 years. Unlike previous years, murders and shootings don't seem to be taking a pause during the winter, and few of them seem to be getting solved. There was an actual mass-shooting (4+ victims) over the summer which apparently remains unsolved, along with unsolved carjackings.

The city is substantially more violent than it has been since the late-80's drug wars. Which is certainly disappointing, since better forensics/surveillance and trauma medicine mean that rates should be a lot lower, and that 'clearance' rates should be a lot higher. That also puts the murder rate at 7.5 per 100,000, which is higher than the previous year's US national average for the first time in decades. And is over 3 times higher than the rate of 2.3 from 2013. Basically, if you are a criminal, you can come to Portland now and do as you please without much risk of getting caught or prosecuted.

[pip]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

^ that’s nuts

The population of Portland and DC is roughly the same for city limits. As of Oct of this year DC has had 163 murders and Portland has had 39 (one of the safest cities in terms of murder rates in America)

What's nuts is the murders rate in American cities.

Toronto Canada for 2.9 million people has had 55 murders as of Oct and DC for almost 700,000 people has had 163.

London England at almost 9 million people has had as of Oct 101 murders. London has 13 times the population of DC but London has had 63 less murders as of Oct.

[pip]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

the demographics of portland vs dc, and thus homicide rates, are a tad different.

portland should have not more than 10-15 murders per year given the demographics of the city and given homicide rate differentials in this country by race

thanks, BLM. Portland sadly sounds like its greatly declined and become a lawless place since I last visited. 49 murders in Portland is insane

ah blame it on black people. But violence is an American phenomenon rivaling undeveloped countries.

Toronto has more black people than DC by far and London twice as many black people as DC's total population.

[pip]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

well if by "blame it on black people" you mean, "yes black people commit disproportionate share of murders, and this can explain murder rate differentials in different cities"



DC has 1.438 million black people. how many does Toronto have again?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...an_populations

you are pulling a stat fact lie. Why do this? It is so transparent.

I am comparing city limits.

Toronto Canada for 2.9 million people has had 55 murders as of Oct and DC for almost 700,000 people has had 163.

London England at almost 9 million people has had as of Oct 101 murders. London has 13 times the population of DC but London has had 63 less murders as of Oct.

Toronto has more black people than DC by far and London twice as many black people as DC's total population.

And seriously?

Chicago city has more murders than the whole of Canada and this year may surpass the total number in the UK which has several major cities and a population of almost 70 million people. And get this Chicago's murder rate so far in 2020 is less than DC


America's violent crime rate rivals developing countries.

[tablemtn]

Make that 50 for Portland, after someone was murdered during an armed robbery (once again, no suspects have been identified). And at least 2 more people in the hospital related to recent shootings.

https://katu.com/news/local/man-shot...ana-dispensary

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by pip

America's violent crime rate rivals developing countries.

no pip, that looks like one relatively small group in america unfortunately rivals developing countries and the rest rivals developed countries.


***

nyc
as of 12/13/20

murders
2020 = 432
2019 = 311
% chg = 38.9%


shootings, burglary and car theft are also up, but
on the bright side everything else is down

[bossabreezes]

Philadelphia is at 473 as of last night.

The highest number ever was recorded in 1990 at 505. If things continue the way they are, we can expect the 20s to be a new wave, cyberpunk version of the 80s across the US. The people want it apparently so it's all good!

[nito]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

regarding London, it would be fairer to compare DC and its low-crime suburbs to the greater london.

The ’Greater’ in Greater London isn’t synonymous with the use of ’Greater’ in the North American context. The Washington D.C. city area is to a degree undersized relative to other cities on the continent, but a quick look online search shows that whilst the surrounding counties of Virginia and Maryland do have lower death rates, they are still high.

Of the top five London boroughs with the highest and lowest homicide count, four and three are respectively Outer London boroughs. I suspect the more mixed urban morphology of London relative to North American city development plays a part in the distribution and concentration of crime.

It is far too convenient to blame specific ethnic groups for the murder rate in many US cities when the reasons behind crime rates (not just in the US) surpasses skin colour. London has a black/black-mixed population of circa 1.4mn (double the population of Washington D.C.), but the murder rate isn’t out of control. That isn’t to dismiss concerns of failings in London, the UK and in other developed countries, but the US has failed vast swathes of its population for a variety of reasons.

The other day I watched a video of the Kensington Avenue neighbourhood of Philadelphia and was outright shocked; addicts passed out on the pavement or getting their fix in public, rubbish piling up on the streets, homeless people dominating street scenes, crumbling buildings. It should not come a surprise then that many parts of the US resemble countries which are borderline lawless, and that many of the very public officials charged with maintaining the law are out of control.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by nito

The ’Greater’ in Greater London isn’t synonymous with the use of ’Greater’ in the North American context. The Washington D.C. city area is to a degree undersized relative to other cities on the continent, but a quick look online search shows that whilst the surrounding counties of Virginia and Maryland do have lower death rates, they are still high.

Of the top five London boroughs with the highest and lowest homicide count, four and three are respectively Outer London boroughs. I suspect the more mixed urban morphology of London relative to North American city development plays a part in the distribution and concentration of crime.

It is far too convenient to blame specific ethnic groups for the murder rate in many US cities when the reasons behind crime rates (not just in the US) surpasses skin colour. London has a black/black-mixed population of circa 1.4mn (double the population of Washington D.C.), but the murder rate isn’t out of control. That isn’t to dismiss concerns of failings in London, the UK and in other developed countries, but the US has failed vast swathes of its population for a variety of reasons.

The other day I watched a video of the Kensington Avenue neighbourhood of Philadelphia and was outright shocked; addicts passed out on the pavement or getting their fix in public, rubbish piling up on the streets, homeless people dominating street scenes, crumbling buildings. It should not come a surprise then that many parts of the US resemble countries which are borderline lawless, and that many of the very public officials charged with maintaining the law are out of control.

Immigrants almost always represent the cream of their society’s crop. But for regular people, slavery and imperialism wreck communities far beyond what government programs can repair. The main difference between America and Europe on the matter is that the descendants of American atrocities are still Americans whether they are rich or poor, peaceful or violent. The descendants of European atrocities mostly still live in former overseas colonies, and the poor, violent and dysfunctional are most certainly not allowed residence in Europe.

I have family in Southern Africa so European talk of peace and harmony in their minority communities is a bit...

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

If this were a us specific issue , there wouldn’t be a similarly massive disparity in homicide rates between black and white in Toronto , and yet there are

Yet even despite that, per your own stats the murder rate amongst black Torontonians is still lower than that for the entire populations of most US cities.

Also let's stop trying to blame black people for crime and start looking at the policy choices that have resulted in them being disproportionately relegated to the underclass (and this goes for non-American countries, Canada included, as well). That high murder rates correlate so strongly with black communities points less to them being defective as it does to hundreds of years of wilful neglect and outright sabotage by the majority. This doesn't have to be the case, but that it is is still a failure of American society all the same.

[nito]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

If this were a us specific issue , there wouldn’t be a similarly massive disparity in homicide rates between black and white in Toronto , and yet there are

Alexandria , va (population 175000) , which is a core part of dc , had zero homicides in 2011. Where are you seeing high homicide rates (outside of black and Hispanic dominated areas) in the 4-5 million person DC urban area?

And Haitians in the US have very low murder rates . This is a cultural issue for the most part

The Washington Post has a tracking service (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...cal/homicides/) which shows homicides in DC and the immediate counties. The figures go up to 2019, but the immediate surrounding counties of Maryland accounted for 91, and those in Virginia 38. I couldn’t find specific figures for 2020 outside of state-level, but news reports show that Alexandria, VA has registered 3 murders YTD.

Data on homicide victims in London isn’t easy to find; it is sometimes put at between 30-50%, which is without question disproportionate relative to population size. That would work out at between 33-55 murders YTD for London’s black/black-mixed population of 1.4mn. If this was a simple matter around skin colour, why does Washington D.C. not have a count in the range of 8-14 murders YTD?

The UK isn’t a utopia; there are inequalities and problems that can be found in other countries and some unique to the UK. With the context of the US, it is a country of extremes which includes disproportionate levels of deprivation. Deprivation aids in creating the toxic conditions for crime to flourish and the violence that accompanies it.

[bossabreezes]

I don't think anyone is saying that this is actually a problem of skin color, but is definitely a cultural problem. Policy change will not make this better, it needs to be grass roots within the community itself. Kind of like Americans loving guns, making them illegal isn't changing that fact.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I don't think anyone is saying that this is actually a problem of skin color, but is definitely a cultural problem. Policy change will not make this better, it needs to be grass roots within the community itself. Kind of like Americans loving guns, making them illegal isn't changing that fact.

It's become culturally ingrained in the African American community due to centuries of policy directed at marginalizing as many of them as possible into a permanent underclass.

There's no quick fix here, but if policy can cause the problem in the first place then it can fix it too. A wider social safety net and less ease of access to guns would be a good place to start.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

I don't think anyone is saying that this is actually a problem of skin color, but is definitely a cultural problem. Policy change will not make this better, it needs to be grass roots within the community itself. Kind of like Americans loving guns, making them illegal isn't changing that fact.

I think it just doesn’t compute for Europeans because their experience is only with ambitious educated immigrants who temporarily have to do low wage work abroad. Immigrants are rarely involved with crime even in the U.S. regardless of their skin color or income.

From the American point of view, the Northern Ireland Troubles are the more apt comparison. A colonial atrocity that devolved into neverending internecine conflict and broken families within some black communities. A situation involving millions of people that is mostly unresponsive to attempts at funding or education.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Yet even despite that, per your own stats the murder rate amongst black Torontonians is still lower than that for the entire populations of most US cities.

Also let's stop trying to blame black people for crime and start looking at the policy choices that have resulted in them being disproportionately relegated to the underclass (and this goes for non-American countries, Canada included, as well). That high murder rates correlate so strongly with black communities points less to them being defective as it does to hundreds of years of wilful neglect and outright sabotage by the majority. This doesn't have to be the case, but that it is is still a failure of American society all the same.

I don't dispute there are issues and problems in Canada, but most of your points don't apply to about 99% of black people in a city like Toronto, whose roots in Canada typically go back no further than the late 1960s, at the earliest.

Though I suppose that one could say that at least some of the family histories are a bit similar for the large share that are of Afro-Caribbean ancestry, who are also descendants of the transatlantic slave trade.

But as I said, most of the intergenerational traumas were not perpetrated in Canada.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by pip

ah blame it on black people. But violence is an American phenomenon rivaling undeveloped countries.

Toronto has more black people than DC by far and London twice as many black people as DC's total population.

There is no logical metric (sheer numbers, % of total population) where Toronto (city proper or metro) can be said to be more black than DC (city proper or metro).

Not sure why this keeps being alleged.

[tablemtn]

Portland has 51 murder cases after an Iraqi refugee Uber driver was randomly murdered by suspected gang members:

23-year-old man found shot in NE Portland dies at hospital

Once again, no arrests or suspects. I get the sense that Portland's police were doing a lot of work in suppressing gang violence in particular within the city. Once that stopped due to the riots this spring and summer, the violence simply exploded, and hasn't stopped exploding.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by tablemtn

Portland has 51 murder cases after an Iraqi refugee Uber driver was randomly murdered by suspected gang members:

23-year-old man found shot in NE Portland dies at hospital

Once again, no arrests or suspects. I get the sense that Portland's police were doing a lot of work in suppressing gang violence in particular within the city. Once that stopped due to the riots this spring and summer, the violence simply exploded, and hasn't stopped exploding.

Probably true in all our cities unfortunately

[tablemtn]

Portland has 52 murders after yet another large shooting with dozens of shots fired near a major park, with the victim potentially being a random bystander:

Shooting Investigation Underway in Eliot Neighborhood, One Person Deceased

And as usual, no arrests or suspects are being reported.