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  #301  
Old Posted Today, 12:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Comrade View Post

The Democrats have seen huge gains in suburban counties, specifically in the NE and the South
That same shift is clear as day in chicagoland too.

1988: medium blue cook county surrounded by dark red collar counties.

2004 : dark blue cook county surrounded by medium red collar counties.

2016: dark blue cook county surrounded by medium and light blue collar counties.
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  #302  
Old Posted Today, 2:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
That same shift is clear as day in chicagoland too.

1988: medium blue cook county surrounded by dark red collar counties.

2004 : dark blue cook county surrounded by medium red collar counties.

2016: dark blue cook county surrounded by medium and light blue collar counties.
Chicago is an especially pronounced case: In 2008, Obama was the first Presidential Democrat to win DuPage, Kane, Kendall, and McHenry Counties. Ever.
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  #303  
Old Posted Today, 3:34 AM
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DuPage even voted for Goldwater in '64.
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  #304  
Old Posted Today, 3:39 AM
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^ it was one of the most reliably red places in the country for decades, but as the Republicans have continued down the path of exclusively playing to their white rural base, they say and do shit that causes too many educated suburban middle-roaders to turn away from them.

Dupage county is ground zero for that phenomenon. Biden carried it by a margin of +18.1. it wasn't even close to a contest.
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  #305  
Old Posted Today, 3:40 AM
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Democrats are now the party of the cultural and economic elites , and dupage and lake county are these elites stomping grounds

The people and their politics haven’t changed , but the parties have . Thus the move to red to blue
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  #306  
Old Posted Today, 4:21 AM
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Trump lost significant ground in very WWC, heavily Italian American Niagara County NY

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsCo/s...46965535019009
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  #307  
Old Posted Today, 4:23 AM
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Double checking DuPage County's voting history, I found the last Democrat that carried DuPage before Obama:



DuPage had voted for every single Republican candidate in the history of the party (including the Bull Moose in 1912) until 2008.
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  #308  
Old Posted Today, 4:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Democrats are now the party of the cultural and economic elites , and dupage and lake county are these elites stomping grounds

The people and their politics haven’t changed , but the parties have . Thus the move to red to blue
The Democrats do well with the more educated, which tends to lean more toward higher incomes. This is the distinction I think you meant with your comment.

I'd also put out there that the Democrats continue to be the party of the working class - it's just that the only working class people focus on are white working class folks, who overwhelmingly vote Republican.

But looking at the income breakdowns, you can clearly see the GOP still remains the party of the uber wealthy, while Biden did extremely well against lower-income and middle income Americans (regardless of race):

Biden won those who made fewer than $50,000 a year 55-44
Biden won those who made between $50,000 to $99,999 a year 57-42
Trump won those who made $100,000+ 54-42
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  #309  
Old Posted Today, 4:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Comrade View Post
The Democrats are the party of the educated, which tends to lean more toward higher incomes. This is the distinction I think you meant with your comment.

I'd also put out there that the Democrats continue to be the party of the working class - it's just that the only working class people focus on are white working class folks, who overwhelmingly vote Republican.

But looking at the income breakdowns, you can clearly see the GOP still remains the party of the uber wealthy, while Biden did extremely well against lower-income and middle income Americans (regardless of race):

Biden won those who made fewer than $50,000 a year 55-44
Biden won those who made between $50,000 to $99,999 a year 57-42
Trump won those who made $100,000+ 54-42
Are you citing the CNN exit poll or AP Votecast Survey?
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  #310  
Old Posted Today, 7:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
it's trending that way at the moment, but these things can always change.

as discussed earlier in this thread, the larger a metro area is, and the more it dominates its state, the more likely that state was to go blue in this election. not only does a larger metro area simply mean more suburban voters to counterbalance the rural vote, but those large metro area suburban voters also tend to be bluer compared to smaller metros (with some exceptions of course, like the austin vs. dallas/houston inversion in texas).

it's no coincidence that the 3 midwest states with the largest margins for biden are also home to the midwest's 3 largest metro areas: chicagoland, metro detroit, and the twin cities.

the ohio and missouri set-up of 2 or 3 medium-sized major metros seems to produce relatively fewer blue suburbanites to offset the small town/farm vote.

wisconsin is a bit of an outlier here in that it's not dominated by a single large metro, but the 1 - 2 punch of milwaukee and ultra-liberal (by midwest standards) madison was just barely enough to squeak out a very narrow biden win.


Midwest states - biden vs. trump margin:

IL (20 EV): +17.0
MN (10 EV): +7.1
MI (16 EV): +2.8
WI (10 EV): +0.6

OH (18 EV): +8.0
IA (6 EV): +8.3
KS (6 EV): +15.2
MO (10 EV): +15.3
IN (11 EV): +16.1
NE (5 EV): +19.1
SD (3 EV): +26.2
ND (3 EV): +33.3
I think what really keeps Ohio and Missouri from being blue states is demographics. They are both just generally older and whiter than the rest of the country. Also, Missouri would always be in play and much more purple state if significant chunks of the largest metro weren't in Kansas and Illinois. That's easily over a million people with more metropolitan sensibilities that could possibly swing an election.
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  #311  
Old Posted Today, 7:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I think this gets to the conflation of Trumpism and conservatism. KC metro is probably more conservative than STL metro, but STL metro appears to be a bit more Trumpist.

Trumpism doesn't align very well with conservatism. There's a high degree of irreligiosity and low levels of educational attainment, among other differences. Upper middle class "soccer mom/golf dad" exurbs are quite conservative, but hostile to Trumpism, while many working class white and Hispanic areas are economically liberal but very amenable to Trumpism.
It's really just demographics. Kansas City metro is historically more conservative but it also has a much larger Latino population where St. Louis has a relatively smallish Latino population to this day despite having a relatively large black urban population. St. Louis also has that old line blue collar feel in areas (which definitely would make it a breeding ground for Trump types who blame liberal elites for shutting down their local plant). Kansas City gives you a much more Denver or Nashville vibe in my opinion. Less industrial and much more white collar overall. Only thing preventing a KC boom is probably Missouri's generally horrific reputation in my opinion.
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