Hurricane Ian and its impact on Flordia's migration

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There's a ton of people who think like that, though. "Cheap" often means the lowest front-end price, regardless of taxation, regulation, amenities, asset valuation and growth. So I don't doubt there's a huge reservoir of such retirees.

Also, the build-to-rent SFH market in the Sunbelt is exploding, which is bizarre (IMO), but maybe damaged areas will be full of new build renter SFH. In TX and GA there are now giant communities of new build renter SFHs.

My understanding is that, at least thus far, the build to rent SFH communities have high rents, so if that's the kind of approach to be used in the damaged areas (which are largely not affluent), there will need to be a way to get the rents way down. It might be a good thing for many people who want a house but can't afford a down payment and other housing associated costs. I do wonder if such developers will find a way to address the need by people who can't even currently afford apartment rents. Maybe that's happening; I don't know much about this subject, though.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by montréaliste

Lol.

Sounds like this time around they named a major hurricane after the nerdiest sounding male, tape on eyeglasses and pen in shirt pockets type.

No more exclusive female names for major storms, and yet, the given names have either English Spanish origins. I can’t wait for the weather service to tag a Hurricane “Lakeesha”, or “Ontwan”.

What would be your specific objection to Lakeesha or Ontwan?

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Reverberation

The code in Houston was revised years ago to where if you build a new house, the finished floor level has to be out of the 500 year flood plain. You can’t even do additions beyond a certain size without lifting the house, so you have started to see mid century ranch houses where the slab has been lifted so there is a slab above pier (in some cases over another slab). Cruise the Meyerland and Bellaire areas on Google Maps and you will see what I mean.

Flood plain maps get revised occasionally though, due to subsidence, which is not a uniquely sunbelt problem.

I've driven around Meyerland and along Braeswood and have seen this, especially after Harvey. A lot of homes I saw were the original 50s and 60s homes that had been flooded, and then the entire home lifted. What happened to Meyerland was beyond sad. I didn't know Bellaire was affected like that as well.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

The crux of the problem is that until Ian, Florida hasn’t had a direct hit from hurricanes in about 16 years, with the exception of Irma. Yeah, no wonder Floridians suddenly think major hurricanes are no big deal.

Even without a direct hit, a normal or a busy hurricane year is weeks of emergency stockpiling, gas shortages, evacuations, unpaid work days, school closures, power outages, property damage, and general stress.

You forgot about Hurricane Michael, a Cat 5 hurricane that hit Florida in 2018.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by hughfb3

I remember that 2004 season.

I remember it and I was living in Ohio. My basement apartment (in Ohio) was flooded twice in two weeks by consecutive hurricanes.

There is a historic marker in Marietta, OH for Hurricane Ivan:
http://earlymarietta.blogspot.com/20...g-in-2004.html

[SteveD]

I heard some local official make a point I hadn't considered earlier today on one of the news channels. He was speculating that the number of deaths will likely be lower than expected because on Ft. Myers Beach and the adjacent surrounding barrier islands many of the residences are owned by snow birds who hadn't yet arrived for the winter season.

[jd3189]

Yeah, the snowbirds don’t come until after hurricane season. If they made up a huge percentage of the population of SW Florida, then the worst thing about this recent storm is the property damages, not the loss of life.

[Kngkyle]

As an Illinois taxpayer I'm super excited to fund the redevelopment of communities in South Florida again.

I'm quite bearish on the future of Florida. Not just for environmental reasons (what most people talk about) but for demographic reasons as well. A major factor contributing to the "success" of Florida is the mass retirement of baby boomers (& their pensions) moving in mass to the state. The generation following the boomers has no hope of filling their shoes once they die off.

Florida residents actually being required to pay for unsubsidized hurricane and flood insurance would also gut demand.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

As an Illinois taxpayer I'm super excited to fund the redevelopment of communities in South Florida again.

I'm quite bearish on the future of Florida. Not just for environmental reasons (what most people talk about) but for demographic reasons as well. A major factor contributing to the "success" of Florida is the mass retirement of baby boomers (& their pensions) moving in mass to the state. The generation following the boomers has no hope of filling their shoes once they die off.

Florida residents actually being required to pay for unsubsidized hurricane and flood insurance would also gut demand.

The Chicagoans I know with pensions were planning on Arizona more than anything else. A few who said Florida before are defintely having second thoughts after all these hurriances.

I'd say Arizona, Mexico (yes) and San Diego is the order for upper middle class people I know in the Chicago area.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

What would be your specific objection to Lakeesha or Ontwan?

Likely that they’re mangled, illiterate versions of actual names. I mean, if we’re going to use any random combination of letters, the NOAA might as well start using a monkey with a typewriter

If we have a longer than usual season, we could reach Hurricane Qwerty and Hurricane Zxcvbn.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by lio45

Likely that they’re mangled, illiterate versions of actual names. I mean, if we’re going to use any random combination of letters, the NOAA might as well start using a monkey with a typewriter

If we have a longer than usual season, we could reach Hurricane Qwerty and Hurricane Zxcvbn.

Once they run out of regular season names, they use the Greek alphabet.

Hurricane Alpha
Hurricane Beta
Hurricane Gamma
Hurricane Delta
Hurricane Epsilon
Hurricane Zeta
Hurricane Eta
Hurricane Theta
Hurricane Iota

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Eta
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Iota

[Double L]

Florida has been hit by powerful hurricanes before and hurricane Micheal, which hit in 2018, had stronger winds. If Florida has handled it in the past, they will handle it again. This is categorized as the fourth strongest storm to hit Florida in its history.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Double L

Florida has been hit by powerful hurricanes before and hurricane Micheal, which hit in 2018, had stronger winds. If Florida has handled it in the past, they will handle it again. This is categorized as the fourth strongest storm to hit Florida in its history.

Floridas relative exposure to severe weather has continued to expand (due to continued development of low lying areas in particular) while the systems (insurance, political, general wealth) ability to deal with costs is in flux.

complex, large system collapses don’t typically or always occur under pressure from one factor (ex. hurricane) or even more than one factor (hurricane + financial crisis), if the underlying fundamentals and inputs of the system are sound enough to continue to be a load bearing structure under stress. enough attacks from different directions at the same time a system is under compounding internal stresses can cause it to pancake, however.

[dave8721]

Sanibel's fate is a shame. IMO its probably the nicest vacation spot in Florida. Basically the polar opposite of neighboring Ft. Myers beach which was just awful. Sanibel was more "Old Florida". Not a single chain hotel on the island and I think just 1 single chain restaurant on the island. Basically 100% mom and pop motels, bnb's and restaurants. More of an old hippy vibe vs the chain/drunken ex-fratboy orgy/Senor Frogs vide of the rest of the SW coast. Basically everyone bikes to get around. No high rise condos or giant hotels. We would go there a few times a year. We were supposed to go back in August but my wife got covid the day before so we cancelled. The hotel owners were cool and let us just apply our deposit to a later date. That hotel is probably gone now. Our kids loved it.
We would go to places like this. Kids ride there bikes and play in the trees (by the way, this restaurant burned to the ground):
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.4376...7i13312!8i6656

Captiva had a nice independent spirit as well:
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.5220...7i16384!8i8192


Contrast that with Fort Myers beach:
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.4533...7i16384!8i8192

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Sanibel's fate is a shame. IMO its probably the nicest vacation spot in Florida. Basically the polar opposite of neighboring Ft. Myers beach which was just awful. Sanibel was more "Old Florida". Not a single chain hotel on the island and I think just 1 single chain restaurant on the island. Basically 100% mom and pop motels, bnb's and restaurants. More of an old hippy vibe vs the chain/drunken ex-fratboy orgy/Senor Frogs vide of the rest of the SW coast. Basically everyone bikes to get around. No high rise condos or giant hotels. We would go there a few times a year. We were supposed to go back in August but my wife got covid the day before so we cancelled. The hotel owners were cool and let us just apply our deposit to a later date. That hotel is probably gone now. Our kids loved it.
We would go to places like this. Kids ride there bikes and play in the trees (by the way, this restaurant burned to the ground):
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.4376...7i13312!8i6656

Captiva had a nice independent spirit as well:
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.5220...7i16384!8i8192


Contrast that with Fort Myers beach:
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.4533...7i16384!8i8192

Really nice. Never had heard of Sanibel until Ian. My Florida travels have always been to the Atlantic coast and central/north central part of the state.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Double L

Florida has been hit by powerful hurricanes before and hurricane Micheal, which hit in 2018, had stronger winds. If Florida has handled it in the past, they will handle it again. This is categorized as the fourth strongest storm to hit Florida in its history.

Nobody cares that much about the wind in Florida anymore.

It’s storm surge that has always been the big killer in historic hurricanes.

And, no, Florida has not handled a major storm surge in an actual metropolitan area before. Certainly nothing like this has happened in modern times in Florida.

When Michael hit the panhandle, Mexico Beach was a very small town in a super isolated part of Florida.

[JDRCRASH]

My uncle and aunt who moved to the region into a newly built house literally about a month and a half ago were about 70 miles away. Originally it was supposed to go right over them.

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Nobody cares that much about the wind in Florida anymore.

It’s storm surge that has always been the big killer in historic hurricanes.

And, no, Florida has not handled a major storm surge in an actual metropolitan area before. Certainly nothing like this has happened in modern times in Florida.

When Michael hit the panhandle, Mexico Beach was a very small town in a super isolated part of Florida.

Apparently Florida’s major cities have been pretty fortunate.

Most people I know that lived for decades in South Florida have told me the worst for their area was Andrew. One old friend of my dad who lived in Miami told me that most of the metro was essentially spared a Katrina on steroids.

[Double L]

Houston didn’t see a slowdown in growth after Hurricane Harvey and I haven’t heard of any cities in Florida expecting a slowdown in growth. The only city that I can think of that never recovered from a natural disaster was Galveston, TX, after a 1901 hurricane. New Orleans even had neighborhoods gentrifying after Katrina. I think the standard is very high for an area to never recover from a natural disaster. People moving to Florida have always known that hurricanes were a threat. This could become an issue in the future if climate change is never resolved however, which is becoming more and more likely to be a reality, IMO.

[jmecklenborg]

It's like...why rebuild that causeway out to Sanibal Island? Why was it built in the first place? It only encouraged development on a barrier island, which as I already mentioned, is idiotic.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

It's like...why rebuild that causeway out to Sanibal Island? Why was it built in the first place? It only encouraged development on a barrier island, which as I already mentioned, is idiotic.

Before 1960, people used to access Sanibel by auto ferry, which caused huge traffic jams on the mainland. Prior to incorporation, the island was an unregulated development feeding frenzy.

But to be honest, modern Sanibel is over.

It’s now an island of population ~6000 with no housing, no utilities, no businesses, no services, emergency or otherwise, and no road to the mainland.

Most residents won’t even be allowed to visit the island again until 2023. Then another half year for demolition and debris removal. And after that a years-long construction and repair backlog, if it’s even possible because that causeway will be a low priority. Most sane people (especially the wealthy sorts who would live on Sanibel) would move on long before that point.