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  #441  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2021, 1:27 PM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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Recent academic study says 95 of 100 top markets are overvalued

Of the 100 cities looked at in the study, 95 showed some level of overvalue...Boise Idaho ranked #1.

https://business.fau.edu/departments...-100/index.php
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  #442  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2021, 2:45 PM
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Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
Of the 100 cities looked at in the study, 95 showed some level of overvalue...Boise Idaho ranked #1.

https://business.fau.edu/departments...-100/index.php
Great find.

Top 100 U.S. Housing Markets for Over/Underpricing | FAU Business

Overpriced
Rank Metro Area Premium
1 Boise, ID 80.64%
2 Austin, TX 50.72%
3 Ogden, UT 49.70%
4 Provo, UT 46.16%
5 Detroit, MI 45.57%
6 Spokane, WA 45.21%
7 Salt Lake City, UT 42.41%
8 Phoenix, AZ 42.31%
9 Las Vegas, NV 41.88%
10 Stockton, CA 38.50%
11 Atlanta, GA 38.31%
12 Colorado Springs, CO 37.34%
13 Charlotte, NC 36.43%
14 Grand Rapids, MI 36.12%
15 Memphis, TN 34.60%
16 Youngstown, OH 34.42%
17 Dayton, OH 33.22%
18 Indianapolis, IN 31.99%
19 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 31.57%
20 Lakeland, FL 31.39%
21 Tampa, FL 31.35%
22 Cleveland, OH 31.27%
23 Columbus, OH 31.26%
24 Tucson, AZ 30.50%
25 Melbourne, FL 28.97%
26 Seattle, WA 28.82%
27 Cincinnati, OH 28.09%
28 Buffalo, NY 27.98%
29 Raleigh, NC 27.88%
30 Greensboro, NC 27.63%
31 Nashville, TN 27.58%
32 Denver, CO 27.42%
33 Daytona Beach, FL 25.55%
34 Chattanooga, TN 24.85%
35 Kansas City, MO 24.34%
36 Akron, OH 24.21%
37 Knoxville, TN 23.99%
38 Winston-Salem, NC 23.77%
39 Fort Myers, FL 23.28%
40 Toledo, OH 23.12%
41 Sacramento, CA 23.04%
42 Greenville, SC 22.61%
43 Albuquerque, NM 22.49%
44 Orlando, FL 22.32%
45 Omaha, NE 22.30%
46 Jacksonville, FL 22.02%
47 Milwaukee, WI 21.45%
48 San Antonio, TX 20.99%
49 New Haven, CT 20.98%
50 Birmingham, AL 20.65%
51 Riverside, CA 20.41%
52 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 20.11%
53 Rochester, NY 19.81%
54 Portland, OR 19.71%
55 Louisville-Jefferson County, KY 19.70%
56 Fresno, CA 19.58%
57 Houston, TX 17.99%
58 Pittsburgh, PA 17.46%
59 Worcester, MA 17.22%
60 Bakersfield, CA 16.84%
61 Scranton, PA 16.61%
62 Wichita, KS 16.34%
63 Augusta, GA 15.69%
64 Columbia, SC 15.63%
65 Jackson, MS 15.49%
66 Minneapolis-St Paul, MN 15.34%
67 McAllen, TX 15.27%
68 St. Louis, MO 15.18%
69 San Diego, CA 14.85%
70 Madison, WI 13.72%
71 Tulsa, OK 13.49%
72 Charleston, SC 13.20%
73 El Paso, TX 13.11%
74 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 12.91%
75 Chicago, IL 12.08%
76 Providence, RI 12.02%
77 Des Moines, IA 11.97%
78 Syracuse, NY 11.58%
79 San Jose, CA 11.17%
80 Allentown, PA 9.90%
81 Boston, MA 9.14%
82 Harrisburg, PA 8.08%
83 Oklahoma City, OK 8.05%
85 San Francisco, CA 8.00%
86 Springfield, MA 7.58%
84 Ventura, CA 7.41%
87 Richmond, VA 7.04%
88 Philadelphia, PA 6.26%
89 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 5.37%
90 Stamford, CT 4.55%
91 Hartford, CT 4.45%
92 Little Rock, AR 4.27%
93 Albany, NY 3.79%
94 New Orleans, LA 2.06%
95 Washington, DC 0.59%

Underpriced
96 Baton Rouge, LA -0.37%
97 New York, NY -0.79%
98 Baltimore, MD -1.69%
99 Virginia Beach, VA -2.46%
100 Urban Honolulu, HI -4.93%

https://business.fau.edu/departments...-100/index.php
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  #443  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2021, 3:28 PM
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How do they determine "overvalued"? It seems... weird that almost all markets in the U.S. are "overvalued" now.
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  #444  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2021, 6:03 PM
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Buffalo, Albany, Syracuse and Rochester are overvalued while New York is undervalued?
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  #445  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 9:32 AM
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I was researching California counties, their dual-income married families, and typical mortgage payments, and I decided to throw in many counties from out-of-state, for comparison sake.

**This does NOT include property taxes

Income data from data.census.gov
Mortgage payment data from the National Association of Realtors, nar.realtor

Average Family Income, both spouses worked(Typical Monthly Mortgage Payment Q1 2021):
$332,711 New York, NY-Manhattan($4,460)
$294,757 San Mateo, CA($4,196)
$280,732 Santa Clara, CA($4,259)
$278,442 Marin, CA($3,669)
$276,903 San Francisco, CA($4,141)
$268,909 Westchester, NY($2,211)
$253,355 Washington, DC($2,585)
$248,568 Fairfield, CT($1,823)
$223,320 Fulton, GA($1,465)
$216,444 Nassau, NY($2,219)
$214,521 Alameda, CA($3,000)
$211,669 King, WA($2,626)
$208,465 Contra Costa, CA($2,339)
$199,673 Suffolk, NY($1,702)
$194,455 Santa Cruz, CA($3,265)
$187,211 Lake, IL($1,068)
$187,020 Douglas, CO($2,122)
$183,392 Denver, CO($1,815)
$182,157 Placer, CA($2,210)
$182,108 El Dorado, CA($2,075)
$181,603 Napa, CA($2,673)
$180,024 Orange, CA($2,916)
$179,738 Cook, IL($1,017)
$177,828 DuPage, IL($1,232)
$177,239 Rockland, NY($1,853)
$176,577 Boulder, CO($2,313)
$174,639 Travis, TX($1,529)
$172,524 Kings, NY-Brooklyn($3,137)
$170,715 Sonoma, CA($2,594)
$169,654 Collin, TX($1,419)
$167,578 Los Angeles, CA($2,590)
$167,175 Fort Bend, TX($1,139)
$166,232 Santa Barbara, CA($2,371)
$165,916 Ventura, CA($2,525)
$165,836 San Diego, CA($2,534)
$165,104 Richmond, NY(Staten Island)($2,318)
$160,202 Washington, OR($1,788)
$159,664 Yolo, CA($1,940)
$158,561 Multnomah, OR($1,724)
$155,855 Snohomish, WA($1,930)
$153,048 Dallas, TX($867)
$150,822 Harris, TX($782)
$150,513 Palm Beach, FL($1,276)
$149,824 Arapahoe, CO($1,665)
$149,783 Nevada, CA($1,988)
$149,675 Solano, CA($1,867)
$148,967 Honolulu, HI($2,811)
$143,748 Sacramento, CA($1,613)
$142,601 Washoe, NV($1,597)
$142,015 Broward, FL($1,231)
$141,376 San Luis Obispo, CA($2,520)
$140,929 Maricopa, AZ($1,265)
$140,928 Hillsborough, FL($1,025)
$140,475 Queens, NY($2,451)
$139,999 Monterey, CA($2,542)
$139,677 Pinellas, FL($971)
$139,022 Tarrant, TX($913)
$138,935 San Joaquin, CA($1,604)
$137,064 Butte, CA($1,350)
$136,955 Kitsap, WA($1,593)
$136,610 Riverside, CA($1,605)
$136,313 Ada, ID($1,516)
$136,027 Clark, WA($1,513)
$135,648 Pierce, WA($1,479)
$133,029 Bernalillo, NM
$130,364 Duval, FL($850)
$129,643 Orange, FL($1,085)
$128,907 Clark, NV($1,273)
$127,815 Adams, CO($1,455)
$127,778 Miami-Dade, FL($1,354)
$126,073 Salt Lake, UT($1,539)
$125,509 Pima, AZ($894)
$124,668 San Bernardino, CA($1,544)
$122,584 Kern, CA($983)
$122,437 Fresno, CA($1,190)
$121,845 Shasta, CA($1,154)
$121,468 Sutter, CA($1,294)
$121,464 Stanislaus, CA($1,411)
$121,139 Bexar, TX($751)
$119,464 Humboldt, CA($1,426)
$118,466 Merced, CA($1,172)
$116,012 Mendocino, CA($1,766)
$110,222 Imperial, CA($954)
$108,898 Madera, CA($1,221)
$104,074 Bronx, NY($1,846)
$101,845 Kings, CA($1,029)
$101,333 Tulare, CA($1,018)
$98,641 Utah, UT($1,530)
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  #446  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 4:47 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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I read awhile back that banks didn't start counting duel incomes in mortgage applications until the late 1960s. I've tried numerous times to re-find that article but I've never found it.

So previously, the bank would only consider the larger or more stable of the two incomes. After they were combined, new suburban homes grew in size. A true 4-bedroom home was relatively rare until the 1970s. After the 4-bedroom home became the standard, we saw the rise of the phrase "starter home" in reference to...pretty much everything that had been built previously.
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  #447  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 5:53 PM
Kngkyle Kngkyle is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
I was researching California counties, their dual-income married families, and typical mortgage payments, and I decided to throw in many counties from out-of-state, for comparison sake.

**This does NOT include property taxes

Income data from data.census.gov
Mortgage payment data from the National Association of Realtors, nar.realtor
Cool list. I took the annual mortgage payments and divided by annual income to get % of income going towards mortgage payments. The results are about what I would have expected. Applying some logic to factor in the varying income taxes would improve the comparison but for now -

Sorted by % of income going toward mortgage payments. - Chicago, Dallas, and Houston are bargains.


Sorted by remaining income after mortgage payments. - but the higher incomes in New York and California more than make up for their higher housing costs. But does that hold true when factoring in higher income taxes?
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  #448  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 7:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
Cool list. I took the annual mortgage payments and divided by annual income to get % of income going towards mortgage payments. The results are about what I would have expected. Applying some logic to factor in the varying income taxes would improve the comparison but for now -

Sorted by % of income going toward mortgage payments. - Chicago, Dallas, and Houston are bargains.


Sorted by remaining income after mortgage payments. - but the higher incomes in New York and California more than make up for their higher housing costs. But does that hold true when factoring in higher income taxes?
Thank you very much!
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  #449  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 7:50 PM
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I think the above chart would be much more meaningful, if it substituted these bloated average family income figures with median income figures which are much more representative of typical household incomes across the board. Harris County Texas, for example, has a median household income of around $62,000. The bloated average household income figure is skewed by the fact that Harris County also has a large number of very high income individuals and families. Ditto for many of the major metro areas around the country. Median household income is a more robust and accurate measure for summarizing income at the geographic level as compared to average household income since it is not affected by a small number of extremely high or low income outlier households.

Last edited by austlar1; Aug 31, 2021 at 8:02 PM.
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  #450  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 8:02 PM
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I know these are just averages but I don't know anyone here with a $782 mortgage unless you bought a house years ago and put down a chunk of cash as down payment. There are a lot of really cheap condos and other fixer uppers skewing those numbers but most RE here really isn't that cheap.
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  #451  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 8:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by austlar1 View Post
I think the above chart would be much more meaningful, if it substituted these bloated average family income figures with median income figures which are much more representative of typical household incomes across the board. Harris County Texas, for example, has a median household income of around $62,000. The bloated average household income figure is skewed by the fact that Harris County also has a large number of very high income individuals and families. Ditto for many of the major metro areas around the country.
I understand, but this income data specifically targets an exact demographic group: "Average Married Family Income, Both Spouses Work"

This is the group usually,most financially stable enough to afford a mortgage, and they are the ones I was looking at.

Simple median household income isnt precise enough for me because there are many kinds of households, and not all are looking to buy a house or own a house.

Also, Median income data is prefearble, but the census caps median figures at $249,999+, otherwise it just reads $250,000+, and that won't work for me because we have several counties above $250,0000 including Manhattan.

So take this with the appropriate grain of salt.
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  #452  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 10:44 PM
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On a different topic, word is (anecdotally) that the Austin market has cooled off a bit with fewer bidding wars and some more realistic pricing on mid-market houses in the city. Don't know how true this might be. A real estate broker friend told me that a lot of over-list-price deals have fallen out of contract while in escrow, and he is hearing about price "adjustments" on other properties. A couple of homes in my SW Austin neighborhood have closed at prices a bit lower than those seen earlier this summer or in late spring. As much as I might stand to benefit from the overheated market, I think this is probably a good thing.
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  #453  
Old Posted Aug 31, 2021, 10:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
I understand, but this income data specifically targets an exact demographic group: "Average Married Family Income, Both Spouses Work"

This is the group usually,most financially stable enough to afford a mortgage, and they are the ones I was looking at.

Simple median household income isnt precise enough for me because there are many kinds of households, and not all are looking to buy a house or own a house.

Also, Median income data is prefearble, but the census caps median figures at $249,999+, otherwise it just reads $250,000+, and that won't work for me because we have several counties above $250,0000 including Manhattan.

So take this with the appropriate grain of salt.
Median household income in Manhattan is (depending on the source and year) somewhere between 69,000 and 119,000. I read a 2018 or 2019 figure for the Upper East Side, arguably one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in Manhattan, of $117,000. Of course, Manhattan and even Brooklyn data is skewed by large number of single member households. Median data works very well in determining who is and who is not likely to be able to afford to buy a home or condo. It also is very descriptive in determining the burden of housing costs (mortgage or rental) on a typical household in any given city. Link is to 2017 figures as provided by Baruch College CUNY. https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/nycdata/...old_income.htm
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  #454  
Old Posted Sep 2, 2021, 10:21 AM
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Contrary to popular culture, marriage is a good vehicle for success.

Married people make more by simple mathematics.

Take this example:

Woman makes 12 an hour and has a kid in a two bedroom apartment (1,000 a month)

Man makes 14 an hour and has a 1 bedroom apartment (800 a month).

Man marries and moves into new two bedroom apartment with woman (1,000 a month).

They now make 26 an hour and their rent has been cut by 800 dollars.

800 dollars a month (or whatever amount one would save) is ian incredible amount of money for poorer Americans.

It's just a shame the rich still marry at high rates while the poor are decreasing.
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  #455  
Old Posted Sep 2, 2021, 2:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
Contrary to popular culture, marriage is a good vehicle for success.

Married people make more by simple mathematics.

Take this example:

Woman makes 12 an hour and has a kid in a two bedroom apartment (1,000 a month)

Man makes 14 an hour and has a 1 bedroom apartment (800 a month).

Man marries and moves into new two bedroom apartment with woman (1,000 a month).

They now make 26 an hour and their rent has been cut by 800 dollars.

800 dollars a month (or whatever amount one would save) is ian incredible amount of money for poorer Americans.

It's just a shame the rich still marry at high rates while the poor are decreasing.
They don't have to get married to do that.
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  #456  
Old Posted Sep 2, 2021, 5:08 PM
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Prices are finally rebounding in Brazilian cities (50 of them), although it's nowhere near the golden age in the 2000's:

2009: +21,13%

2010: +26,86%

2011: +26,32%

2012: +13,03%

2013: +13,74%

2014: +6,70%

2015: +1,32%

2016: +0,57%

2017: -0,53%

2018: -0,21%

2019: +0,00%

2020: +3,67%

2021: +5,27%


Here some cities, with São Paulo overtaking Rio de Janeiro for the first time (price / m2):

São Paulo: R$ 9,602

Rio de Janeiro: R$ 9,584

Brasília: R$ 8,503

Florianópolis: R$ 8,143

Curitiba: R$ 7,159

Belo Horizonte: R$ 7,009

Recife: R$ 6,391

Porto Alegre: R$ 6,319

Campinas: R$ 5,440

Salvador: R$ 5,325

Londrina: R$ 4,079

August 2021 report, with the full list and other data: https://downloads.fipe.org.br/indice...cial-venda.pdf


If you want to move to Brazil and make the USD/BRL conversion, you'll find ridiculously cheap.
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  #457  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2021, 5:18 PM
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Richard Neutra is one of my favorite architects.

From barrons.com:

Richard Neutra-Designed Lovell Health House in Los Angeles Sells for $8.75 Million


By V.L. HENDRICKSON Sept. 29, 2021 10:27 am ET


Getty images

One of pioneering California architect Richard Neutra’s most notable residences sold last week for $8.75 million.

Completed in 1929, the 4,800-square-foot Lovell Health House hit the market for the first time in 60 years in February 2020 for $11.5 million, Mansion Global previously reported. The three-level concrete-and-steel home was built into the hillside in the Los Feliz neighborhood of Los Angeles with indoor-outdoor living in mind, a new concept at the time.

It also cemented Neutra’s success as an architect, according to the listing with Crosby Doe and Ilana Gafni of Crosby Doe Associates, who did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The house is one of “the greatest monuments of the International Style in Southern California,” according to architectural historians David Gebhard and Robert Winter, who were quoted in the listing, and ”firmly established Neutra’s world reputation.”

The International Style used glass, steel and concrete to create open, airy homes inspired by modernism, and was developed by a number of European architects such as Neutra, Rudolph Schindler and Ludwig Mies van der Rohe.

The Los Feliz property was most recently listed for just under $10 million and went into contract over the summer, according to listing records.

Prominent gallerists Iwan and Manuela Wirth purchased the property, “with plans to bring back its original lustre,” according to an article in the New Yorker. Their galleries can be found all over the world, representing artists such as Alexander Calder, Annie Leibovitz and Amy Sherald. A representative for the couple confirmed the sale, and said it “will be a private residence for their family once restored.”

The home features walls of steel casement windows framing panoramic views of Los Angeles, as well as a number of loggias and terraces, according to listing photos. It also boasts soaring ceilings, original brick work, built-in shelving and a pool with a diving board and lounge area.

It was built for a doctor, Philip Lovell, who took his health seriously. He requested a large kitchen to help him maintain his vegetarian diet and direct access from his bedroom to the outdoors to enable sleeping al fresco, Mansion Global reported.

Since the 1960s, the home has been owned by Betty Lou Topper, who died in August 2019 at the age of 92. She raised five children there and was a steward of the property, according to an obituary for her in the Los Feliz Ledger.


Link: https://www.barrons.com/articles/ric...tO7Q_qgWc45LUk
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  #458  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2021, 12:47 PM
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Miami has gotten very expensive.

Quote:
Miami passes Los Angeles as the second most expensive housing market in the US
The median household income in Miami is $39,049, while the median home price is $549,000

MIAMI – Since the early in the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when snowbirds and tech companies from out west began flocking down to sunny South Florida, there has been an unprecedented real estate boom in South Florida — and it doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.

According to the October 2021 Housing Affordability Index report by RealtyHop, which analyzes the affordability of housing markets in the United States, Miami has officially overtaken Los Angeles as the second least affordable housing market in the country.

In their September 2021 report, Miami had ranked No. 3 on their list of least affordable housing.

Now, Miami has come in second only to New York City, which has maintained its reputation as the most expensive housing market in the country for numerous years. In New York City, the current median household income is $63,998 and the median home price is $958,000.

https://www.local10.com/real-estate/...ket-in-the-us/
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  #459  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2021, 2:11 PM
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here's a fun little game to play.

draw 1/4 mile circle around your residence, then find the most and least expensive homes currently listed for sale on zillow within that circle.



for me:

most expensive: $1,245,000 - a 4 bed/4 bath 3,800 SF de-converted 2-flat.

least expensive: $174,000 - a 2 bed/1 bath 1,000 SF garden unit in a 6-flat.
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  #460  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2021, 2:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Miami has gotten very expensive.
That is so misleading. Yes, the median household income in NYC is $63,000-but the households actually looking to buy a home usually earn more.

Example:

Metro Area(MSA) Median Income, Married-Couple Family With Children Under 18 Years, 2019
$197,878 San Jose
$175,559 San Francisco
$158,611 Boston
$151,425 Washington DC
$142,080 Baltimore
$142,050 Seattle
$133,636 Hartford
$133,390 Minneapolis
$131,885 Philadelphia
$131,879 New York
$128,643 Raleigh
$127,594 Denver
$123,227 Austin
$121,598 Chicago
$119,797 Portland
$118,508 Cincinnati
$117,202 Providence
$116,781 Richmond
$116,303 San Diego
$116,169 St Louis
$115,914 Pittsburgh
$115,574 Milwaukee
$115,272 Charlotte
$113,345 Charlotte
$113,285 Sacramento
$112,170 Indianapolis
$110,393 Detroit
$109,639 Buffalo
$109,569 Kansas City
$108,999 Atlanta
$108,235 Cleveland
$107,470 Rochester
$105,633 New Orleans
$105,426 Salt Lake City
$104,904 Los Angeles
$104,888 Nashville
$104,462 Houston
$103,466 Virginia Beach
$103,062 Dallas
$102,371 Louisville
$100,960 Birmingham
$100,473 Grand Rapids
$100,307 Memphis
$99,089 Tampa
$98,536 Jacksonville
$98,445 Phoenix
$96,584 San Antonio
$93,052 Oklahoma City
$91,903 Tucson
$90,168 Riverside
$89,847 Miami
$87,373 Las Vegas
$86,227 Orlando

Many large Metro Areas are divided into Metro Divisions.

Metro Divisions(MD) by Median Income, Married-Couple Family With Children Under 18 Years, 2019
$205,377 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA
$193,086 San Rafael, CA
$173,718 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
$166,617 Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA
$162,152 Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA
$160,630 Nassau-Suffolk, NY
$155,955 Boston, MA
$155,429 Montgomery-Bucks-Chester, PA
$152,756 Seattle-Bellevue-Kent, WA
$151,504 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
$150,987 Frederick-Gaithersburg-Rockville, MD
$147,593 Newark, NJ
$143,019 New Brunswick-Lakewood, NJ
$133,822 Rockingham-Strafford, NH
$133,428 Lake-Kenosha, IL-WI
$132,612 Camden, NJ
$129,516 Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA
$124,221 Elgin, IL
$121,734 Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL
$117,395 New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY
$119,604 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI
$116,557 Wilmington, DE-MD-PA
$106,610 Tacoma-Lakewood, WA
$106,534 Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
$105,317 Gary, IN
$103,266 Philadelphia, PA
$102,594 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL
$97,565 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
$96,348 Fort Worth_Arlington-Grapevine, TX
$93,451 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise, FL
$89,491 Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI
$79,160 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL

*I added Bridgeport, CT because it so ubiquitously known as being part of the NY Area, but it's not a Metro Divis
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