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  #61  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2020, 1:03 AM
UrbanRevival UrbanRevival is offline
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
TBH I'm surprised PA is growing. NYS, NJ, and CT are all flat and PA's economy is less robust than all of them.

Are any cities in the Midwest or Northeast pushing their urban fringe further into the hinterlands? Maybe Boston?
Not sure where you got that idea. NJ, NY and CT have all been fairly slow-growth economically and over the past several years and are very much in-line with PA relative to job growth rates. CT has actually had near-zero growth.

In fact, as of the latest BLS numbers, PA and NJ are the top two Northeastern states for job growth rates: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

The five New England states outside of Mass. didn't even register statistically significant y-o-y changes. PA in particular, while certainly not in perfect shape, is arguably the most economically "balanced" and affordable of the Northeast states and actually one of most diverse economies among all states. That's demonstrated further by its relatively low domestic out-migration rates compared to many Northeastern/Midwestern states.

That it has maintained its slow-but-steady population growth compared to other states comes as little surprise.
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  #62  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2020, 1:58 AM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
2021 Population Estimates of U.S. Metropolitan Areas could be a little higher....



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...se-of-pandemic
On the other hand... random hookups must also be down right?
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  #63  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2020, 11:40 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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On the other hand... random hookups must also be down right?
If you think people arent breaking lockdown to go on Tinder hook-ups you are crazy.


.....Or so a friend told me....
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  #64  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 1:57 AM
Docere Docere is online now
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Not a fan of Wendell Cox/Demographia but would be interesting to see 2010s.

2000-2010:

Inner suburban +2.4%

Outer suburban +6.3%

https://www.newgeography.com/content...ation-new-york

Inner = Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Nassau, Passaic, Union, Westchester

Outer = Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Pike, Putnam, Rockland, Somerest, Suffolk, Sussex

Pike grew 24% in that decade, Ocean also saw double digit growth.
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  #65  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 2:23 AM
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Between 2000 and 2018, Pike fell by 2.5%. Ocean is still growing (4.4%) - it has a sizable Orthodox Jewish community in Lakewood.

ETA: Rockland - home to ultra-Orthodox communities - grew at a similar rate (4.5%).
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  #66  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 9:56 AM
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They are masochists. I've done that stretch several times. It might be different if there's transit involved but still a long haul. They did from where I lived in NH as well into Boston but quality of life is diminished when you're spending that long commuting. I knew people back home in Utica who commuted into Penn Station a few times a week. There are those who are super commuters..but no thanks.
I think all the major metro areas have a certain population of super commuters. In my office, prior to switching to everyone working from home, at least one of the guys was commuting 2 hours each way every day. I've never had a commute in excess of an hour, and usually it's been 20 minutes or less by choice. I don't really understand the super commuters. Even when I had a commute that was 45-60 minutes each way, I was able to have a single seat commute so I could read or do work the whole way, or I'd be seated next to my significant other so we could talk the whole way.

If I couldn't do any of those things - if I had to drive alone or transfer several times, then a long commute would destroy my soul. My current commute is 20-25 minutes walking, or 10-15 minutes via bicycle. That's ideal.
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  #67  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Between 2000 and 2018, Pike fell by 2.5%. Ocean is still growing (4.4%) - it has a sizable Orthodox Jewish community in Lakewood.

ETA: Rockland - home to ultra-Orthodox communities - grew at a similar rate (4.5%).
Right. Ocean and Rockland are growing outer counties, but only because of ultra-Orthodox. Rockland is the most Jewish county in the U.S. (by %). Lakewood, NJ is the biggest Jewish concentration in the U.S. outside of Brooklyn, and growing like crazy. Outside of those enclaves, Ocean and Rockland growth is at best flat, mirroring the other outer counties.
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  #68  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 2:41 PM
IrishIllini IrishIllini is offline
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Originally Posted by UrbanRevival View Post
Not sure where you got that idea. NJ, NY and CT have all been fairly slow-growth economically and over the past several years and are very much in-line with PA relative to job growth rates. CT has actually had near-zero growth.

In fact, as of the latest BLS numbers, PA and NJ are the top two Northeastern states for job growth rates: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

The five New England states outside of Mass. didn't even register statistically significant y-o-y changes. PA in particular, while certainly not in perfect shape, is arguably the most economically "balanced" and affordable of the Northeast states and actually one of most diverse economies among all states. That's demonstrated further by its relatively low domestic out-migration rates compared to many Northeastern/Midwestern states.

That it has maintained its slow-but-steady population growth compared to other states comes as little surprise.
Interesting. It seems everything I've read has suggested NYC has done very well over the past 10 years (which is what I meant when I said CT, NJ, and NY) and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's economies haven't done as well, so I'm just surprised it's posting modest gains whereas the others are flat.
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  #69  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 2:55 PM
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The CSA for Salt Lake City makes more sense to me than splitting the region into three MSAs. It's pretty much one continuous, developed area from North Ogden to Spanish Fork at this point. Pretty good numbers:

Quote:
Originally Posted by rds70
Salt Lake-Ogden-Provo CSA.....
2010: 2,271,704.....
2019: 2,641,048.....
Increase: 369,344/16.3%
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Last edited by Atlas; Mar 31, 2020 at 8:07 PM.
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  #70  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 6:51 PM
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
TBH I'm surprised PA is growing. NYS, NJ, and CT are all flat and PA's economy is less robust than all of them.

Are any cities in the Midwest or Northeast pushing their urban fringe further into the hinterlands? Maybe Boston?
The Philadelphia area, along with much of southern and eastern PA, is doing the vast majority heavy lifting. Philadelphia has undergone a tremendous amount of change within the last decade, and metrics tend to point towards the conclusion that there's still room for population and economic growth in the region. We have long been a center of "Eds and Meds", and now we're poised to become a leader in the life sciences area. All PA counties within the Philadelphia MSA have shown growth, though Delaware County's growth has been anemic due to the fact that it is mostly built out. The Lehigh Valley has been doing well for a while, and the Poconos region benefits from its connection to NYC. As long as I-78, I-83, and the PA Turnpike (I-76) continue to exist, the Harrisburg area will continue to be a logistical hub uniquely situated to deliver goods to three of the largest markets in the country: NYC, Philly, and the Baltimore-DC area.

Pittsburgh has also undergone changes, but its metro area--not just the city proper--continues to bleed population. This is more so due to the higher median age of the area than its economic strength. I believe that the City of Pittsburgh will start growing again, but the region will continue to shed population.

Outside of the aforementioned areas, only Centre County has the potential for population growth due to the presence of Penn State-University Park. Otherwise, a good portion of the Commonwealth will continue to shed its population and economic stature over the coming years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
Interesting. It seems everything I've read has suggested NYC has done very well over the past 10 years (which is what I meant when I said CT, NJ, and NY) and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's economies haven't done as well, so I'm just surprised it's posting modest gains whereas the others are flat.
Philadelphia was been leading job growth among metro areas in 2019:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...assdoor-report
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  #71  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 8:27 PM
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Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan View Post

Pittsburgh has also undergone changes, but its metro area--not just the city proper--continues to bleed population. This is more so due to the higher median age of the area than its economic strength. I believe that the City of Pittsburgh will start growing again, but the region will continue to shed population.
It really all depends on what one considers the Pittsburgh "region" to be. What is technically considered to be the Pittsburgh MSA is such a vast area and highly disconnected due to the extreme topography. Because of this, it is incohesive and includes largely unrelated areas... areas that share very little practical connection to Pittsburgh. It's nothing like the case with Philadelphia MSA, which is obviously in a much more densely populated and connected part of the state. I think the Pittsburgh MSA has been overly generous in the extent of its boundaries.

The City of Pittsburgh population loss seems to be leveling off as older residents die, and the numbers of younger residents moving in cannot yet keep up with the demographic reality of having one of the oldest populations in the nation.

The leveling off situation is similar for Allegheny County, which is de facto "Pittsburgh", but ridiculously composed of 130 municipalities (the most in PA) surrounding the city proper.

The surrounding counties of Butler (to the north) and Washington (to the south) are very popular suburban locales... Butler and Washington both have seen significant new development in the past 2 decades, have both been growing in population, and are continuing to see major infrastructure development.

Meanwhile, Westmoreland and Fayette counties (to the east-southeast) are still declining. These counties are part of the long-declining Mon Valley and push far out into former coal country and into the Laurel Highlands (i.e., the ties to Pittsburgh are very tenuous and are becoming less and less relevant to the area). Similarly, Beaver County (to the NW) and Armstrong County (to the NE) continue to lose population to aging. While Beaver County maintains connection to Pittsburgh due to its concentration of population in the Ohio River valley (and its bordering of growth areas in Butler County), Armstrong is largely rural and stretches all the way north to I-80... it really has zero business being considered part of the Pittsburgh area, and it never has. It's difficult to even get there from Pittsburgh -- there is literally ONE state highway connecting Armstrong County to Pittsburgh. It would take you the same amount of time to get from the northern portions of Armstrong County to Pittsburgh as it would take to get from those same northern portions to Erie...

So... I think we're going to see what is the actual Pittsburgh region grow, while places that have functioned independently from Pittsburgh throughout their histories (Mon Valley, eastern Westmoreland and Fayette counties) will continue to decline, as they are remote, disconnected areas which only knew growth long ago due to the steel and coal industry. We're witnessing over the past few decades how they never really have been a part of the Pittsburgh area.

Last edited by pj3000; Mar 31, 2020 at 8:38 PM.
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  #72  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 9:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
The CSA for Salt Lake City makes more sense to me than splitting the region into three MSAs. It's pretty much one continuous, developed area from North Ogden to Spanish Fork at this point. Pretty good numbers:
It's one of the US metros that looks a ton bigger when one goes from MSA to CSA. Ogden to Provo, roughly 131 km, and 2.4 million people is preferable to the whole CSA though.
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  #73  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 9:55 PM
JAYNYC JAYNYC is offline
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
It's one of the US metros that looks a ton bigger when one goes from MSA to CSA. Ogden to Provo, roughly 131 km, and 2.4 million people is preferable to the whole CSA though.
Its actual CSA is exactly 84% of the (85K sq./mi) state's population.
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  #74  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2020, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
Its actual CSA is exactly 84% of the (85K sq./mi) state's population.
And more than 90% of the people in the Salt Lake-Ogden-Provo CSA live in 4 smaller counties in the center of the CSA (Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, Weber).
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  #75  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2020, 4:49 AM
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Originally Posted by JAYNYC View Post
Its actual CSA is exactly 84% of the (85K sq./mi) state's population.
Similar to how the linear Denver-Boulder-Greeley CSA is 62% of Colorado’s population. If you combine it with Colorado Springs and Pueblo, so basically all of the Front Range urban area, it would be 80% of the state’s population along the I-25 corridor.
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  #76  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2020, 1:27 PM
themaguffin themaguffin is offline
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Pittsburgh has also undergone changes, but its metro area--not just the city proper--continues to bleed population. This is more so due to the higher median age of the area than its economic strength. I believe that the City of Pittsburgh will start growing again, but the region will continue to shed population
Most metros can at least depend on natural change growth (more birth than deaths) and many places have robust international in-migration, even if domestic migration is minimal or negative.

Pittsburgh has had more deaths than births for a good 30 years.

Westmoreland county did lose in domestic migration in the last year, but the estimate is a insignificant 8 people. 8.

International in migration made up for it, but the county saw 1,500 more deaths than births.

1,500.

Guess what, the county's population is estimated to have declined by around 1,500 people in the last year estimate.
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  #77  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2020, 2:21 PM
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Originally Posted by themaguffin View Post
Most metros can at least depend on natural change growth (more birth than deaths) and many places have robust international in-migration, even if domestic migration is minimal or negative.

Pittsburgh has had more deaths than births for a good 30 years.

Westmoreland county did lose in domestic migration in the last year, but the estimate is a insignificant 8 people. 8.

International in migration made up for it, but the county saw 1,500 more deaths than births.

1,500.

Guess what, the county's population is estimated to have declined by around 1,500 people in the last year estimate.
Well, there is also a good reason that the region has had more deaths than births for the past few decades... young people moved away and young people didn't move in. We're just finally now seeing that begin to change. But, people are having fewer kids these days, and there's still a hell of a lot of baby boomers around. I don't see the overall southwestern PA region growing significantly anytime soon.
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