The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Nashe]

Anything Musk does or says is probably the WORST indicator of ... anything.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

A year ago, I didn't know they were putting in this much effort into improving manufacturing and that the other automakers would be so incompetent as to squander a whole year and then decide to be 80% gas and hybrid in 2030. It's not just what Tesla is doing. It's how much some of these other OEMs are falling behind and even outright refusing to accept reality.

I do think Musk exaggerates a ton. And the reality in somewhere in the middle. But watching the presentation, I'm now convinced Tesla is moving past Musk and developing an engineering and innovation culture and operating cycle that is more like Apple. Just like Apple continues to dominate several markets without Jobs, Tesla is heading that way without Musk.

As a shareholder, I'm okay with this. As a consumer, Tesla's dominance sucks. Doesn't make for good consumer choice. For example, I'd like a car with more buttons and higher reliability, because it's a hard sell to have no buttons and quality issue in a household with one car and a techphobic spouse. But my options beyond Tesla, are still poor value.

I think it's a mix of Tesla's more focused vision, and now, strong internal teams, and the fact that it's really damn hard to do what they've done, and they make it look far easier than it is.

The OEMs are mostly dinosaurs, but when they put a ton of effort into EVs (Ford, GM), they still stumble a bit.

Then there's others trying to do it from the ground up (Rivian, Lucid), that are finding out just how difficult it was for Tesla.

Buttons are a preference, for sure. I went back to a newer ICE car from my 2018 Tesla and it still feels archaic. I have everything set to auto in the car and I don't do anything other than pick music when I get in. I set navigation from my home on the way to the car or talk to it when I get in. No locking, unlocking, fussing with the climate controls, etc.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Anything Musk does or says is probably the WORST indicator of ... anything.

If you dismiss any company he is associated with, much less runs, or product that he's focused the company upon creating, well, that's a pretty risky blind spot.

It's very easy to pile on the Twitter dumpster fire, but consider the utter sector dominance that SpaceX and Tesla have carved out from nothing against some of the largest, best capitalized, and most institutionally entrenched national incumbents.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Anything Musk does or says is probably the WORST indicator of ... anything.

Yeah that richest guy in the world is a real dummy who makes dumb decisions. Betting against him is a winning strategy.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

If you dismiss any company he is associated with, much less runs, or product that he's focused the company upon creating, well, that's a pretty risky blind spot.

It's very easy to pile on the Twitter dumpster fire, but consider the utter sector dominance that SpaceX and Tesla have carved out from nothing against some of the largest, best capitalized, and most institutionally entrenched national incumbents.

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yeah that richest guy in the world is a real dummy who makes dumb decisions. Betting against him is a winning strategy.

Hey now, I didn't say anything about the companies or the tech. Tesla and SpaceX are fantastic in that regard. But as I see it, Elon himself is about 2 for 3 with the record above. He's a loose cannon and I suspect his companies succeed despite him.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yeah that richest guy in the world is a real dummy who makes dumb decisions. Betting against him is a winning strategy.

Not a universal truth. If I had the option of shorting Twitter right now, I would. His decisions there are pretty moronic, like the blanket firing of coders who wrote the least lines of code. At this point, Tesla and Space X succeed in spite of Musk. Not because of him.

I won't even get into the firing and mocking is Harald Thorleifsson which I watched in real time and is likely to cost Musk tens of millions:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/musk-t...logy-1.6771404

The dude is classically narcissistic and has zero impulse control. He's Gen X Trump.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Hey now, I didn't say anything about the companies or the tech. Tesla and SpaceX are fantastic in that regard. But as I see it, Elon himself is about 2 for 3 with the record above. He's a loose cannon and I suspect his companies succeed despite him.

Try to look at the results, not the crap that comes out of his mouth. Tesla and SpaceX are clear winners. Twitter is TBD, but it hasn't imploded yet like every armchair quarterback predicted it would.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Try to look at the results, not the crap that comes out of his mouth. Tesla and SpaceX are clear winners. Twitter is TBD, but it hasn't imploded yet like every armchair quarterback predicted it would.

That's literally EXACTLY what I'm saying.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The dude is classically narcissistic and has zero impulse control. He's Gen X Trump.

I'm not sure he's Trump, but definitely a massive narcissist. I bet he's in the majority among Fortune 100 CEOs.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'm not sure he's Trump, but definitely a massive narcissist. I bet he's in the majority among Fortune 100 CEOs.

It is my hope that someday I become incredibly successful but only to the point just before I lose the ability to keep my big mouth shut, which many celebs clearly have failed to do.

"Hey... I'm a billionaire! Time to delete my Twitter account!"

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'm not sure he's Trump, but definitely a massive narcissist. I bet he's in the majority among Fortune 100 CEOs.

I think he's as bad or worse. The only thing limiting the damage he can do, is that he can't run for President.

And while I agree that a lot of top leaders are narcissists, most have the discipline and self-awareness to keep their mouths shut. With Musk, as soon he talks about a field you know about, you realize he's no tech genius. Just a rich dude who brings cash to the table which other rich dudes ignored. For me this realization was Hyperloop. I realized his supposed understanding of the physics involved was bullshit.

[Wigs]

instead of hyperloop, America got that stupid one lane tunnel for Teslas under Las Vegas...Convention Center

• Video Link

Instead of usable transit, Las Vegas is going to expand...this?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Any brand that isn't going all out to electrify right now is toast. I'm thinking of smaller brands like Mazda, Suzuki and Mitsubishi.

Kia/Hyundai will be on good footing. They plan for 11 electrics and 13 hybrids and have stopped developing transmissions for ICE cars.

[homebucket]

Well this certainly is one way to encourage buyers to add FSD. Steering wheels... so archaic. Just get rid of them completely and have everything set to auto.

U.S. probing Tesla over steering wheels that might fall off
UPDATED ON: MARCH 8, 2023 / 11:02 AM

U.S. auto safety regulators have opened an investigation into Tesla's Model Y SUV after getting two complaints that the steering wheels can come off while it's being driven.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says the probe covers an estimated 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year.

The agency says in both cases the Model Ys were delivered to customers with a missing bolt that holds the wheel to the steering column. A friction fit held the steering wheels on, but they separated when force was exerted while the SUVs were being driven.

The agency says in documents posted on its website Wednesday that both incidents happened while the SUVs had low mileage on them.

Investigators are looking at how often the problem happens, how many vehicles were affected and at Tesla's manufacturing process.

The Model Y is Tesla's top-selling vehicle.

The Associated Press left messages seeking comment from Tesla, which has disbanded its media relations department.

In one complaint filed with NHTSA, an owner said he was driving with his family on Route 1 in Woodbridge, New Jersey, when the steering wheel suddenly came off on Jan. 29. The owner wrote that there were no cars behind him and he was able to pull toward the road divider. There were no injuries in the Tesla, which was purchased on Jan. 24.

"The lead investigator provided assurance and indicated this is a serious matter and they have already contacted Tesla for further investigation," the owner said.

The complaint has a link to a Twitter post from the owner that included a video of the detached steering wheel and pictures of the white Tesla being towed.

CBS News exchanged messages with Perak and Neha Patel, who owned the Tesla in question, and they shared photos of the car and its detached steering wheel.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-s...investigation/

[SpongeG]

some battery developments and news

General Motors Will Build A US Battery Factory With Samsung SDI

General Motors and Samsung SDI will announce this week the construction of new US battery factory, probably in Michigan.
By Steve Hanley Published 2 days ago

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/03/06...h-samsung-sdi/

------

Korea to compete with China's CATL in cheap EV battery battle

SK On’s pouch-type LFP batteries are known to have improved the major disadvantage of LFPs which is that the capacity reduces by 70 percent at freezing temperatures around minus 20 degrees Celsius.

The Korean battery maker has been developing LFP batteries since 2021 at its research center in Daejeon. When it can start mass production has not been disclosed.

Compared to today’s NCM batteries, LFP batteries have less energy density but cost 30 percent less.

LFP batteries have fewer risks related to fire as they do not contain nickel. Around 95 percent of the LFP battery market is controlled by Chinese manufacturers including CATL.

SK On’s entry into the LFP battery market comes as Ford Motor announced a technology licensing deal with CATLfor LFP batteries for its new $3.5 billion battery plant in Michigan, citing the need to offer customers a lower-priced option.

Ford said its Mustang Mach-Es, the most popular EV from the brand, will begin using LFP batteries starting this year, followed by the F-150 Lightning trucks in 2024.

Tesla has been at the forefront of bringing LFP technology to the U.S. market. It already uses LFP batteries in its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, not only those sold in China but also in the U.S. market.

Mercedes-Benz also said it would use LFP batteries for future entry-level EV models. Others including Stellantis and Volkswagen are also reviewing usage.

“As countries will continually reduce subsidies, automakers will likely expand lineups for low-cost EVs,” said Yim Eun-young, a researcher at Samsung Securities.

“Demand for LFP batteries will grow, so Korean companies must accelerate the development or even other cheaper batteries that can compete with LFP.”

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com...181235838.html

------

Ready for the Next Stage of EV Batteries?

https://innotechtoday.com/ready-for-...-ev-batteries/

------

Tesla rattles investors and suppliers over SiC in EVs
By Matt Hamblen Mar 4, 2023

https://www.fierceelectronics.com/po...s-over-sic-evs

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Well this certainly is one way to encourage buyers to add FSD. Steering wheels... so archaic. Just get rid of them completely and have everything set to auto.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-s...investigation/

FYI, 2023 Nissan Ariya also recalled for steering wheel that might fall off.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/2023...-wheel-recall/

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by SFUVancouver

FYI, 2023 Nissan Ariya also recalled for steering wheel that might fall off.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/2023...-wheel-recall/

It’s certainly a troubling trend. We saw this with the Toyota bZ4X too where the wheel bolts would loosen and the wheels could fall off, and the Ford MME with improperly adhered windshields and sunroofs. Wonder what the root cause is? Are manufacturers so focused on developing the EV parts that they’re overlooking the actual car building part? Is it poor working conditions leading to errors or just simply worker apathy and carelessness?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Well this certainly is one way to encourage buyers to add FSD. Steering wheels... so archaic. Just get rid of them completely and have everything set to auto.

The ugly Model Y is Tesla's bestseller? That's sad.

[Truenorth00]

Bloomberg NEF is saying ICEV sales have peaked and are now in structural decline.

Carmakers can kiss pre-pandemic combustion car sales goodbye

There are growing signs that global auto sales will continue their comeback from the pandemic, chip shortage and other supply chain snarls. As the recovery takes shape, it's becoming clearer that sales of internal combustion vehicles are unlikely to ever return to pre-pandemic levels.

Calling peaks is generally a no-win endeavor. The call will either be correct but seem obvious after the fact, or wrong and cause for years of mockery. But with 2022 data now available, BNEF is confident the global market for internal combustion vehicles peaked in 2017 and is now in structural decline.

This may seem self-evident to those watching the market closely, but is likely still jarring for others. Forecasts for oil demand issued just a few years ago still assumed steady growth in sales of these vehicles well into the 2030s.



At the 2017 peak, 86 million internal combustion passenger vehicles were sold, including traditional hybrids like the Toyota Prius. Battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models were a tiny sliver of the market that year, accounting for just over 1 million vehicles combined.


The picture was quite different in 2022. Combustion vehicle sales were down almost 20 per cent from the peak, to 69 million, and plug-in vehicles jumped to 10.4 million.

Even if we add plug-in hybrids to the internal combustion column, the picture doesn't change much. The market still would have peaked in 2017, and global sales in 2022 would be 72 million, still 16 per cent off the high from five years earlier.



....

It's worth exploring if anything could reverse this trend. There's a big gap in EV adoption between wealthy and emerging economies, for example. But while it's tempting to think this could offset what's happening in China, Europe and North America, it's hard to see where the growth in combustion vehicle sales would come from.

Southeast Asia is a growing car market, but even there, much of the expansion is poised to be taken up by EVs rather than gasoline models. Countries including Thailand and Indonesia are pushing to become hubs for battery and EV production.

It's a similar story in India, where EVs are on the ascent and the government has big ambitions to build up a domestic industry. Sales went from 15,000 in 2021 to almost 50,000 in 2022, and BNEF is expecting the strong growth to continue this year.

New-vehicle sales in Brazil and Mexico are largely flat, and the numbers in Africa are still very small. Combustion vehicles may eke out a minor gain this year over 2022 levels, but global deliveries won't come anywhere near the high of 2017.

With respect to energy market implications, it's the fleet that matters, and the changeover will take time. Pinning down the exact number of vehicles in the world is a tricky exercise, but BNEF expects the global combustion vehicle fleet to be relatively steady for the next three years before starting to decline in earnest from 2026 onward as the EV fleet swells.

Once the fleet turns, it will be almost impossible to reverse, and that will have ramifications for oil demand and emissions. In BNEF's models, overall oil demand from road transport is set to peak in 2027, just four years from now. Trucks are the next battleground, but the future is shifting quickly there, too. Already 7 per cent of all commercial vehicle sales in China were electric last year. Even heavy truck sales — long viewed as the hardest to electrify — crossed 5 per cent EV share there in December.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/carmaker...dbye-1.1893191

[Nouvellecosse]

You guys see this? Nice to see that fleet transitions are making progress.

• Video Link