Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
Had we started out with the vision with that we were not building rail past Moodie in the West, Fallowfield in the Southwest, airport in the south and Blair in the East, we would have had very different specifications for the system. Because we started with a goal that has its ultimate form of rail to literally every suburb, that lead to the idea that we would have to use cheaper rail infrastructure (LRT) but that we still need to operate safely and quickly (hence expensive grade separation and higher speeds). This insidious idea is the root of most of the problems with the O-Train.
The root of that mindset? The entitlement of suburbanites who want higher order transit to their front door, but they aren't willing to actually pay the taxes necessary for building a robust enough system. And ultimately when the compromised solution is built (because of their cheap mentality), they won't even use transit anyway. Catering to suburbanites was always a fool's errand. The post-Covid problems are only making it more obvious.
As for how it can be fixed? It can't. The very people who have champagne tastes have beer budgets. So it has to be triaged. In that case, priority has to go to the greatest return. Priority for improvements to routes with high ridership. Priority for cuts to routes and areas with low demand.
There will be no Stage 3. Not for a very long time. And if growth keeps up, traffic is likely to get worse. Ironically, this might be the only thing that gets ridership up. In the end the Downs-Thomson paradox is going to be the rate limiter on ridership growth.
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There surely was a poor decision in the vehicle selection and overall design (LRT was probably not what we needed). This I do agree, and certainly the desire to cover as much of the city in rail as possible with a less than needed budget was probably misguided.
Just to clarify, "suburbs" vs "non-suburbs"? Not really following? Ottawa is mostly suburban? Ottawa's actual urban area is very small? I've had properties in Alta Vista, Vanier and Orleans and lived in Ottawa all my life. Whether I am visiting friends in McKellar Park, Meadowlands, Hunt Club or reflecting on my past homes, most of these neigbhourhoods are very similar. I think you mean perhaps inner vs. outer suburbs. I don't think that all suburbanites should all be lumped together.
I just think the story is much more complicated than you make it out to be.
Another major factor that is overlooked was the costing model that was used to justify the Stage /2 plans. The 12 Billion or so in spending over ~30 years was a planned 100 million in annual cost savings. This was achieved my removing buses and drivers that were hauling 10 of millions of commuters annually on the transitway (many of them the entitled suburbanites you speak of).
With covid / work from home / high tech leaving downtown (Shopify + others), the commuting landscape has changed and Stage 1 / 2 plans are now out of alignment with the world the existed in 2012-2015 or so when much of this planning was done. It's just really unfortunate that timing of covid and how the dynamics changed, not to mention the inability of the LRT contractor to deliver a quality system.
Even with all that, I still have an optimistic view that the system/vehicle issues will stabilize over the coming years, Stage 2 will provide a backbone that allows for TOD and a foundation to attract a new generation of commuters who would otherwise be driving.
I hope (and believe) that in 25 years we are looking back saying, things were rough at launch and the with the pandemic. However, sure it worked out better than the bus tunnel or worst yet nothing? Oh, and stage 3 still doesn't have a business case