The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

I find it interesting that certain areas where you have coastline but NO major urban centre are growing so significantly. Example is Charlotte County, where the population growth is impressive even though there is really only St. Stephen/Calais as a shopping hub. Same for Albert and Kent Counties. While not as big as say the three cities, it does beg the question if these rural areas will start to see more highway-side plaza developments (like in Nova Scotia) that will act as regional shopping hubs. Two examples in Nova Scotia are the long-established Sobeys plazas in Hubbards and Enfield which have been around for decades. They are now seeing lots of rural growth in those areas due to the accessibility of services - especially grocery.

It kinda makes sense cuz if you're gonna move from ON/BC to somewhere that is "rural" and you're flush w. cash, you might as well have some nice water to look at. Just about all of Kent's population is near the shore anyway, and beaches extend pretty much down the whole coastline through Westmorland.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

I find it interesting that certain areas where you have coastline but NO major urban centre are growing so significantly. Example is Charlotte County, where the population growth is impressive even though there is really only St. Stephen/Calais as a shopping hub. Same for Albert and Kent Counties. While not as big as say the three cities, it does beg the question if these rural areas will start to see more highway-side plaza developments (like in Nova Scotia) that will act as regional shopping hubs. Two examples in Nova Scotia are the long-established Sobeys plazas in Hubbards and Enfield which have been around for decades. They are now seeing lots of rural growth in those areas due to the accessibility of services - especially grocery.

Charlotte has St George serving everything between Bocabec and Maces Bay. It's always been bifrucated east/west. Plus, St. Andrews is very much its own thing, economy-wise. I'd like to dig into more locality-level estimates because I presume the growth is very unevenly distributed.

[MonctonRad]

Interesting graphic from the Canada section:



They include info for the six primary Atlantic Canadian markets (sorry CBRM). The only one of the six CMAs/CAs building any commercial office space at all is Moncton.

Office vacancy rate in Saint John is 35.1%!!!!!

OTOH, the vacancy rate in Charlottetown is a paltry 6.1%, best in the country.

[sailor734]

Yep, that number for SJ doesn't surprise me all that much. Was in the Market over the noon hour....very quiet. Then drove down King and past Market Square. The outdoor section of the boardwalk patios were less than 30-40% full at 12:45 and the new versio0n of Loyalist Plaza was completely empty.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Interesting graphic from the Canada section:



They include info for the six primary Atlantic Canadian markets (sorry CBRM). The only one of the six CMAs/CAs building any commercial office space at all is Moncton.

Office vacancy rate in Saint John is 35.1%!!!!!

OTOH, the vacancy rate in Charlottetown is a paltry 6.1%, best in the country.

Makes you wonder what qualifies as "office space under construction", as it is simply not true that there is 0sf under construction in Halifax, Fredericton, and SJ. This must be limited to buildings purpose built for leasable office space, rather than companies building their own office space (not for lease) as the latter is happening in all cities.

[q12]

Policymakers Take Note: Population Growth is Easing in the Atlantic

Canada’s Atlantic region is experiencing a notable moderation in population growth. This contrasts with the nation at a whole, whose population growth is still humming at multi-decade highs.

Population growth remains incredibly strong in the Atlantic Region. However, it is easing from sky-high rates, just as other parts of the country appear to be holding firm (Chart 1). We anticipate this trend towards slower population growth in the Atlantic will persist, marking a very important development for a region where economic growth has broadly benefitted more from recent population inflows.



Source of the Slowdown

At a broad level, the deceleration of the Atlantic region’s population growth is being disproportionally driven by a slowdown in net interprovincial migration as opposed to international migration (Chart 8). At last count (Q1-2024), net interprovincial migration in the Atlantic provinces totaled just over 1,000 people, a significant pullback from the 5,000+ run rate between 2021 and 2022. Interprovincial migration is a relatively new source of population growth in the region.



Bottom Line

While above-average levels of population growth are expected to persist in the Atlantic region in the very near-term, current trends are pointing to a faster slowdown in headcount growth compared to government estimates in 2025. While not necessarily a red flag, this does create a scenario for potential downside to economic growth via consumer spending and weaker job creation. At the same time, the housing market may benefit from slower rental price growth and easing affordability concerns. Federal government policies will work through the Atlantic region in various ways, with the common denominator being that all regions will see some form of population growth slowdown.

Read more (source):

https://economics.td.com/ca-populati...n-the-atlantic

[KnoxfordGuy]

As long as New Brunswick just slows and doesn't slide back, it's fine. The growth we have now is crazy.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

As long as New Brunswick just slows and doesn't slide back, it's fine. The growth we have now is crazy.

I agree. It gives us time hopefully to catch up in improving services.

[new kid in town]

On that note, I expect that some urban centres might still have different growth compared to others so let's see how that will go.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

On that note, I expect that some urban centres might still have different growth compared to others so let's see how that will go.

Even if regional growth slows, there are some metropolitan areas that are still natural growth centres. I can think of four in the Maritimes.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Makes you wonder what qualifies as "office space under construction", as it is simply not true that there is 0sf under construction in Halifax, Fredericton, and SJ. This must be limited to buildings purpose built for leasable office space, rather than companies building their own office space (not for lease) as the latter is happening in all cities.

I think this is true. It's probably just the office rental market.

In the past I've noticed that some mixed use projects with small office components don't tend to show up in these statistics either.

That being said I'm pretty sure Halifax has ~0 major office projects and it might not have any for a while. A lot of major leases expired a few years back and at that time there was a bump in construction (RBC Waterside Centre, TD, Nova Centre, etc.). There are some office to residential conversions happening which I'm sure will be good for vibrancy in those areas. Part of downtown Halifax was a semi-dead zone with too much office concentration and not enough mixed use. In the post covid WFH era those areas are really dead.

[MonctonRad]

Requoted from the Canada section:

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

PEI just passed 180,000 on the population clock. Watch out Ontario!

Current estimates from the Stats Can population clock:

NS - 1,084,966
NB - 864,803
NL - 544,579
PE - 180,009

Total - 2,674,357

[adamuptownsj]

Interestingly, if the Maritimes were a US state, we would be on track to go from two congressional districts to three following the 2030 census, if we wouldn't have narrowly picked one up after 2020. This is a contrast to New England, which has only lost representation in recent decades (MA-10 vanished after 2010, CT-06 after 2000).

[SevenSquared]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Requoted from the Canada section:
Current estimates from the Stats Can population clock:

NS - 1,084,966
NB - 864,803
NL - 544,579
PE - 180,009

Since June 21:

NS: +5,403
NB: +6,913
NL: +1,400
PE: +1,577

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by SevenSquared

Since June 21:

NS: +5,403
NB: +6,913
NL: +1,400
PE: +1,577

Interesting. So, at present, NB is outperforming NS (even more so on a per capital basis).

All I know is that traffic in Moncton is increasingly chaotic. I went out twice on Sunday (once in the morning a little after 10 AM to try out the new Stacked Pancake House), and again in the afternoon to go to Costco.

Traffic was heavy on both occasions (I was particularly surprised at 10 AM on a Sunday). Stacked was full (we got the last table), and Costco was even more of a zoo than usual.

[MonctonRad]

If the current NB growth rate is sustainable, then the provincial population wil be:

- 879,000 (Jan 1st, 2025)
- 921,000 (Jan 1st, 2026)
- 963,000 (Jan 1st, 2027)
- 1,005,000 (Jan 1st, 2028)

Personally, I don't think this growth rate will continue. I expect the feds to put the brakes on TFWs pretty soon, and, will also start weaning the country off foreign students as well. I still think we'll get to a million, but may guess is the early 2030s.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Interesting. So, at present, NB is outperforming NS (even more so on a per capital basis).

All I know is that traffic in Moncton is increasingly chaotic. .

This might have something to do with it:



It's good if Nova Scotia's population growth rate is slowing.

Also Moncton traffic, lol.

[MonctonRad]

Just posted by Mayor Dawn Arnold in her Facebook page:

In New Brunswick, (greater) Moncton currently represents:
*25 per cent of the population
*33 per cent of the GDP
*47 per cent of the immigration intake
*49 per cent of new building permits
When the City of Moncton flourishes, New Brunswick flourishes – Moncton matters to the province’s prosperity and success.

[new kid in town]

Pretty amazing stats.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

I believe that is around 5000 immigrants per year so far then. Also interprovincial isn't included.