Federal Government & Politics II

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Mark Carney is ready and has been working the circuit and his french is vastly improved...

You do realize that when he was appointed as head of the BoC in 2003 he was perfectly bilingual ... and probably spoke better French than the current PM

For the record, I believe that Carney is still living in Ottawa, though he probably owns a home in Toronto and likely a cottage in the Muskokas. As such, here are a couple links to the current state of polling in those three areas, so what is your opinion of which Liberal in a safe seat will quit to allow for a by-election for Carney to sweep in on?

https://338canada.com/ottawa.htm (Vanier??)
https://338canada.com/ottawa.htm (Centre cause Christie ain't gonna go?)
https://338canada.com/ontario.htm

And I guess they'd better quit soon as Acottawa said, leadership race take a while

[shreddog]

Interesting article in the G&M

Liberals set internal goal to narrow polling gap by five points come July: sources

Trailing badly in the polls, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has set an internal goal of narrowing the Conservative Party’s double-digit lead by five points every six months.

According to two sources with direct knowledge of the strategy, the Liberals are taking an incremental approach to climbing out of their deep hole in popularity. By July, the sources said, the Prime Minister’s Office is expecting to see the first material change in polling.

The minority Liberals’ expectation for some positive polling news is tied to this week’s federal budget, which they believe was squarely focused on the key concerns of the under-40 crowd.
...
To succeed in their strategy, the sources said the Liberals need to ensure Canadians hear about the budget programs; that the government follows through on the promised policies; and that the Liberals draw a contrast with Conservatives and convince voters that the programs wouldn’t be on offer under Leader Pierre Poilievre.
...

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What would Carney run on? Trudeau’s record?

He could conceivably throw Trudeau and Singh under the bus and propose a completely new, centrist agenda, but that is a really awkward position to fight an election on, particularly with no room to manoeuvre.

This is the only hope. He would need to run openly against Trudeau with a centre right even budget, cancel carbon tax and slash and burn to "rescue" the economy. It's a very long shot but if he could steal back the 5% Blue Liberals who are now firmly for Cons the move to the right could actually steal more NDP votes as they fear a Con victory but see now hope currently. Singh is so weak that picking their pocket should be easy. Odds still against it for sure.

Originally Posted by shreddog

And I guess they'd better quit soon as Acottawa said, leadership race take a while

You can do it as quickly as you want. You could change the rules and let caucus decide or delegates only.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What would Carney run on? Trudeau’s record?

He could conceivably throw Trudeau and Singh under the bus and propose a completely new, centrist agenda, but that is a really awkward position to fight an election on, particularly with no room to manoeuvre.

The biggest problem the Liberals has it they are running out of time to do such a change.

With some credibility I think he can come in with a completely new agenda. Ideal case, would be to table a centrist budget that the NDP would be unwilling to support. Perhaps focused on innovation and containing the cost of social services with a pathway to being balanced. The NDP and Conservatives vote against it and we are off to an election. The Liberals take their traditional place in the centre of the spectrum.

The Liberals go in to the election saying, look we had a minority, the people clearly wanted to see the parties collaborate and compromise that is what we did. If you want a more balanced government, it is time to give us a majority.

All that said, I think the best the Liberals will end up with is a minority Conservatives government that is going to be unstable. PP does not have the personality to make that work. It would fall quickly and the Liberals will be back in. Worse outcome is the Conservatives have a majority, however that looks to be where we are going. Hopefully they are some moderate elements within the conservative party the constrain the more right wing elements.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

The biggest problem the Liberals has it they are running out of time to do such a change.

With some credibility I think he can come in with a completely new agenda. Ideal case, would be to table a centrist budget that the NDP would be unwilling to support. Perhaps focused on innovation and containing the cost of social services with a pathway to being balanced. The NDP and Conservatives vote against it and we are off to an election. The Liberals take their traditional place in the centre of the spectrum.

The Liberals go in to the election saying, look we had a minority, the people clearly wanted to see the parties collaborate and compromise that is what we did. If you want a more balanced government, it is time to give us a majority.

All that said, I think the best the Liberals will end up with is a minority Conservatives government that is going to be unstable. PP does not have the personality to make that work. It would fall quickly and the Liberals will be back in. Worse outcome is the Conservatives have a majority, however that looks to be where we are going. Hopefully they are some moderate elements within the conservative party the constrain the more right wing elements.

What is the narrative then? Does a new leader give the equivalent of Khrushchev’s secret speech denouncing Stalin? “All (or most) of the things we have done for the last 10 years were wrong.” Freeland has to campaign against her own budget.

A political switcheroo can work sometimes, but usually when it is dome mid-term, when there is time to pass the new legislation, get new initiatives underway, etc.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What would Carney run on? Trudeau’s record?

He could conceivably throw Trudeau and Singh under the bus and propose a completely new, centrist agenda, but that is a really awkward position to fight an election on, particularly with no room to manoeuvre.

New broom, I should think.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What is the narrative then? Does a new leader give the equivalent of Khrushchev’s secret speech denouncing Stalin? “All (or most) of the things we have done for the last 10 years were wrong.” Freeland has to campaign against her own budget.

A political switcheroo can work sometimes, but usually when it is dome mid-term, when there is time to pass the new legislation, get new initiatives underway, etc.

He's have to fire the leftist cohort. Bring in a new competency based cabinet that might be god forbid 60% male and yes denounce the previous era. You're exactly right though it's too late. That's probably not accidental as Trudeau would rather see a Con government undue his work rather than his own party.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Interesting article in the G&M

I’ve set myself the internal goal of owning a Rolls Royce Spectre by Fall. It’s likely to be just as successful.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

LeBlanc maybe the one Trudeau has appointed to be the interim leader of the Party if Trudeau does us all a favour and takes his walk in the snow, {here's hoping for a May blizzard} but as leader into the next election he is useless. He is a basic unknown to Canadians and he's nothing more than Trudeau's lapdog and that also applies to Freeland and Annand.

In order for the Liberals to have any shot at the next election, the new leader must be outside Trudeau's inner circle or it will not be viewed as any real change and with all the baggage of Trudeau acting as a noose around their collective necks. PP will make mincemeat out of them. Carney has no such affiliation and would be viewed by the electorate as a truly fresh face with a new vision.

Carney is personable, has very good communication skills, has instant name recognition amongst Canadians, has a solid record of financial management having fairly successfully managing Canada thru the 2008 Financial Crisis and Britain during Brexit, would be embraced by the business community, is fluently bilingual, and is from the NWT of all places which means he could not be pigeon holed into being just another Golden Triangle boy by Westerners or another Western hick by Quebecers and Ontarians.

The thing that gives me optimism about Carney is that, although never specifically stating he would want the job, he has stated that it is an "option". In the gentile world of diplomacy, that's about as big as a commitment one can make.

Carney however is an even bigger Climate alarmist than Trudeau, primarily because the Man can count. Can he keep that philosophy hidden should he take over? Climate has dropped to about 17th on the list of Canadian concerns but my oh my the believers will still try to punish the inhabitants of the Second largest and coldest Country on Earth.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What is the narrative then? Does a new leader give the equivalent of Khrushchev’s secret speech denouncing Stalin? “All (or most) of the things we have done for the last 10 years were wrong.” Freeland has to campaign against her own budget.

A political switcheroo can work sometimes, but usually when it is dome mid-term, when there is time to pass the new legislation, get new initiatives underway, etc.

A very carefully crafted narrative that simply ignores but does not denounce what has happened.

The NDP will keep pushing for expanded dental and pharma programs. If the liberals hold the line on these programs with out expanding them I think the NDP will walk. At the same time it shows the Liberals as being fiscally responsible.

The current Freeland budget is focused on taking the wind out of the conservatives sail.

Carbon tax is a tricky one. It is a good program, we should be expanding it. The fundamental problem is just how unpopular it is. I think the liberals are going to have to transition away from having the free market drive the the transition to a clean economy and instead focus on regulation instead.

Originally Posted by Dartguard

Carney however is an even bigger Climate alarmist than Trudeau, primarily because the Man can count. Can he keep that philosophy hidden should he take over? Climate has dropped to about 17th on the list of Canadian concerns but my oh my the believers will still try to punish the inhabitants of the Second largest and coldest Country on Earth.

Well, yes. While it may not be popular just now, it is the correct thing to do.

Even the PP knows we need to do address climate change. When pushed he make it clear that we to take action: https://youtu.be/CXD0SQ11l0k?si=6BuLD6-c9gRJpASz&t=268

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

A very carefully crafted narrative that simply ignores but does not denounce what has happened.

The NDP will keep pushing for expanded dental and pharma programs. If the liberals hold the line on these programs with out expanding them I think the NDP will walk. At the same time it shows the Liberals as being fiscally responsible.

The current Freeland budget is focused on taking the wind out of the conservatives sail.

Carbon tax is a tricky one. It is a good program, we should be expanding it. The fundamental problem is just how unpopular it is. I think the liberals are going to have to transition away from having the free market drive the the transition to a clean economy and instead focus on regulation instead.

You think not expanding the dental and pharmacare boondoggle and adding new regulations to strangle our economy to fall on the climate change sword is going to bring back centrists? Wow.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You think not expanding the dental and pharmacare boondoggle and adding new regulations to strangle our economy to fall on the climate change sword is going to bring back centrists? Wow.

Yes. As well as a plan to eventually balance the budget.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

Yes. As well as a plan to eventually balance the budget.

Wow there is a bridge I can sell you if you believe any of those plans. I mean Carney probably has more actual credibilty on that than PP who will cut taxes at the first sign of progress and spend on the favored departments but that's speculative. This government has proven irresponsible on budget matters so deserves it's time in the penalty box.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Interesting article in the G&M

Polls are all over the place but it would appear that they're about 15-18 points behind right now. I guess you have to start somewhere.

[kool maudit]

I don't understand the appeal of Carney. Sure, competence matters, but it matters more what you are competent at.

He would just be Trudeau with a more sober demeanour.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

I don't understand the appeal of Carney. Sure, competence matters, but it matters more what you are competent at.

He would just be Trudeau with a more sober demeanour.

I'm not sure it what possible way he is "Trudeau". Please elaborate? He for better or worse is the opposite of Trudeau. A techonocrat with financial acumen. Experience on the world stage. But lacking in the people skills that brought Trudeau to power. If you just mean he's not a right wing idealogue well yeah but neither is 60-70% of Canada.

[MonctonRad]

Right now I would take a dull but competent technocratic bureaucrat with economic and financial skills 1000% of the time over the vacuous JT.

Canada needs to be saved, NOW!!!!!

[theman23]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Right now I would take a dull but competent technocratic bureaucrat with economic and financial skills 1000% of the time over the vacuous JT.

Canada needs to be saved, NOW!!!!!

I don't think it has anything to do with "financial skills". They have access to innumerable competent technocrats. The Liberals chose to be irresponsible for political and ideological reasons.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by theman23

I don't think it has anything to do with "financial skills". They have access to innumerable competent technocrats. The Liberals chose to be irresponsible for political and ideological reasons.

At least Carney cares about the economy and Canada's future. At lot more so than Justin "the budget will balance itself" Trudeau.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

At least Carney cares about the economy and Canada's future. At lot more so than Justin "the budget will balance itself" Trudeau.

I think we shouldn't question motives but only results. You act like he spent the money on giant statues or something. It was not just political but a practical plan to make a green, equal Canada. There is a fine line between handing out money in redistribution and growing the pie. They certainly tried to do a bit of both but the drinking the climate change Kool-Aid and extreme risk intolerance on Covid were two huge mistakes that will be now hard to recover from.